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Start topping up again...but what?

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Gengulphus
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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214883

Postby Gengulphus » April 13th, 2019, 6:41 pm

Dod101 wrote:I am bemused that some posters seem to take what are obviously ironic/amusing/not to be taken seriously posts as gospel. I find them quite amusing myself. I guess it is this media which makes it difficult to 'read' the message.

An alternative explanation is that they enjoy playing 'straight man' to the comedian...

Gengulphus

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214891

Postby tjh290633 » April 13th, 2019, 8:01 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am bemused that some posters seem to take what are obviously ironic/amusing/not to be taken seriously posts as gospel. I find them quite amusing myself. I guess it is this media which makes it difficult to 'read' the message.

An alternative explanation is that they enjoy playing 'straight man' to the comedian...

Gengulphus

What we have to guard against is some inexperienced investor taking them at face value. Some cautionary comments must be added as a precaution. The alternative is to delete the topic completely, or the offending posts.

TJH

Dod101
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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214895

Postby Dod101 » April 13th, 2019, 8:49 pm

Please no! We have too much interference as it is. We do not want more, surely. Posters will learn. I will need to stop commenting.

Dod

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214906

Postby AJC5001 » April 13th, 2019, 10:19 pm

Dod101 wrote:I will need to stop commenting.

Dod


I thought you had already tried that. My recollection is that it didn't last long although one of the longer threads was produced in reaction.

Adrian

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214918

Postby Dod101 » April 14th, 2019, 1:08 am

Indeed I did but it did not last long. This time I mean commenting on odd posts not withdrawing altogether. That does not suit me although it might well suit some!

Dod

Gengulphus
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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214973

Postby Gengulphus » April 14th, 2019, 1:57 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am bemused that some posters seem to take what are obviously ironic/amusing/not to be taken seriously posts as gospel. I find them quite amusing myself. I guess it is this media which makes it difficult to 'read' the message.

An alternative explanation is that they enjoy playing 'straight man' to the comedian...

I might add that I had an occasion some months ago when someone posted an obviously not-to-be-taken-seriously comment, I replied in a somewhat 'deadpan' way with another such comment, and someone else replied with a comment along the lines that they were bemused that I'd missed the intended humour. I was very bemused...

Gengulphus

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#214987

Postby Dod101 » April 14th, 2019, 3:24 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am bemused that some posters seem to take what are obviously ironic/amusing/not to be taken seriously posts as gospel. I find them quite amusing myself. I guess it is this media which makes it difficult to 'read' the message.

An alternative explanation is that they enjoy playing 'straight man' to the comedian...

I might add that I had an occasion some months ago when someone posted an obviously not-to-be-taken-seriously comment, I replied in a somewhat 'deadpan' way with another such comment, and someone else replied with a comment along the lines that they were bemused that I'd missed the intended humour. I was very bemused...


How very bemusing all round.

Dod

Arborbridge
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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215187

Postby Arborbridge » April 15th, 2019, 2:31 pm

Dod101 wrote:
I see that you have just bought SLA. Well that is your privilege, but chasing a high yield often does not work out well. Good luck.

Dod


Chasing yield? Hardly, it looks to me as though he's done the opposite and waited until the yield has decreased by 15% as it has over the past three months ;) The fall in yield suggests the market believes the SLA story is still worth investing in.

Arb.

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215218

Postby Dod101 » April 15th, 2019, 4:07 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
I see that you have just bought SLA. Well that is your privilege, but chasing a high yield often does not work out well. Good luck.

Dod


Chasing yield? Hardly, it looks to me as though he's done the opposite and waited until the yield has decreased by 15% as it has over the past three months ;) The fall in yield suggests the market believes the SLA story is still worth investing in.


SLA is quoted in my newspaper today as yielding 9.1%. I do not follow it on a very close basis but if that is about right, Arb, what yield would you need before calling a buy 'chasing yield'? 9.1% yield is much too high for my comfort.

Dod

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215229

Postby pyad » April 15th, 2019, 5:14 pm

Dod101 wrote:SLA is quoted in my newspaper today as yielding 9.1%. I do not follow it on a very close basis but if that is about right, Arb, what yield would you need before calling a buy 'chasing yield'? 9.1% yield is much too high for my comfort.

Dod


SLA have said that they intend to hold the div at the 18 figure of 21.6p "during the period of transformation". Consequently at 273p the forward yield for 19 is 7.9%. That's considerably less than your 9.1% though still high.

But why adulterate a misleading argument with facts when you can regurgitate guff from a newspaper without checking it.

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215264

Postby IanTHughes » April 15th, 2019, 8:25 pm

pyad wrote:
Dod101 wrote:SLA is quoted in my newspaper today as yielding 9.1%. I do not follow it on a very close basis but if that is about right, Arb, what yield would you need before calling a buy 'chasing yield'? 9.1% yield is much too high for my comfort.


SLA have said that they intend to hold the div at the 18 figure of 21.6p "during the period of transformation". Consequently at 273p the forward yield for 19 is 7.9%. That's considerably less than your 9.1% though still high.

But why adulterate a misleading argument with facts when you can regurgitate guff from a newspaper without checking it.


Because Dod101 concentrates on lower yielding but quality shares, like Schroders (SDRC) - yield around 5.00% - as his extensive and in-depth analysis reported here clearly shows.

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=17193&p=214221&hilit=quality#p214221

Dod101 wrote:Surely you would not touch SLA with a bargepole. If you want a fund manager I would go for Schroders Non Voting. The dividend is much more secure and although it may be lower that is because Schroder is a quality share.



Ian

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215280

Postby Dod101 » April 15th, 2019, 10:12 pm

pyad wrote:
Dod101 wrote:SLA is quoted in my newspaper today as yielding 9.1%. I do not follow it on a very close basis but if that is about right, Arb, what yield would you need before calling a buy 'chasing yield'? 9.1% yield is much too high for my comfort.

Dod


SLA have said that they intend to hold the div at the 18 figure of 21.6p "during the period of transformation". Consequently at 273p the forward yield for 19 is 7.9%. That's considerably less than your 9.1% though still high.

But why adulterate a misleading argument with facts when you can regurgitate guff from a newspaper without checking it.


I am very grateful for the clarification but I am sure you must know as well as I that there are many ways to measure a yield. No one (including me) has offered a definition when writing of yield and as far as I was concerned that was because I was simply making a general point that the yield on SLA is very high. Personally I use the actual dividend received/the period end value, and the usual period end I use is the calendar year. You seem to favour forecast dividend/some value which only you will know from whence derived.

Dod

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215299

Postby AJC5001 » April 15th, 2019, 11:15 pm

Dod101 wrote:Personally I use the actual dividend received/the period end value, and the usual period end I use is the calendar year.


So you use the dividends received in the calendar year 2018, divided by the capital value calculated using the share price as at 31st December 2018?


If this is correct, what do you do about any announcements of dividends in 2019, before you take another view of yields after 31st December 2019?

I feel there must be something you've omitted?

Adrian

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215301

Postby IanTHughes » April 15th, 2019, 11:22 pm

Dod101 wrote:
pyad wrote:
Dod101 wrote:SLA is quoted in my newspaper today as yielding 9.1%. I do not follow it on a very close basis but if that is about right, Arb, what yield would you need before calling a buy 'chasing yield'? 9.1% yield is much too high for my comfort.

Dod


SLA have said that they intend to hold the div at the 18 figure of 21.6p "during the period of transformation". Consequently at 273p the forward yield for 19 is 7.9%. That's considerably less than your 9.1% though still high.

But why adulterate a misleading argument with facts when you can regurgitate guff from a newspaper without checking it.


I am very grateful for the clarification but I am sure you must know as well as I that there are many ways to measure a yield.

The only way I know to calculate a Dividend Yield is as follows:

Dividend Yield = Annual Dividend Amount / Share Price

How else can it be done?

Dod101 wrote:You seem to favour forecast dividend/some value which only you will know from whence derived.

pyad clearly stated above that the Dividend Amount he was using was 21.60p and a share price of 273p - repeated below in case you missed it
pyad wrote:SLA have said that they intend to hold the div at the 18 figure of 21.6p "during the period of transformation". Consequently at 273p the forward yield for 19 is 7.9%.

You or your "newspaper" can only calculate a yield of 9.1% if either a dividend larger than 21.6p or a share price lower than 273p is being assumed, or a mixture of the two. Only you can explain which.


Ian

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215320

Postby Arborbridge » April 16th, 2019, 7:07 am

Historic yield for SLA is 21.6/271.8 (closing price last night given by HL) = 7.9%
Forecast given is for 22.07, yield 8.1%, but from what Pyad wrote this seems optimistic based on company statements.

Goodness knows where the 9% came from, but it would have been easy to check the current yield with a couple of sources in moments. Personally, I try to go to some lengths to check facts before posting because some vigilant poster will pick up on it if I do not - quite rightly, too - but even then I make plenty of mistakes for people to find 8-)

Either way, the yield is high, but is it absurd? That's a judgement for each of us to make - personally, I wouldn't say so. In my view, Dod made a judgement about SLA based on his "feeling" about the culture and then tried to find some facts post hoc to back up that opinion. I apologise if I'm wrong, but that could be what happened.

However, my slightly tongue in cheek interjection yesterday was about the phrase "chasing the yield" - whereas SLA's yield has been falling as the market gains confidence in it. If you buy in now, you are "chasing a falling yield" - rather more healthy (in my view) than "chasing a rising yield" - of course this situation might well change when the market has another hissy fit. :(

Arb.

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215321

Postby idpickering » April 16th, 2019, 7:18 am

Here's dividenddata's take on this;

Standard Life Aberdeen Current Yield Details - 7.95%


See link for the maths.

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... y?epic=SLA

I hold SLA, topping up only last month.

Ian.

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215324

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 16th, 2019, 7:51 am

All else being equal, one might perhaps expect SLA to experience a rise in Assets under Management in line with GDP growth.

The problem is competition is now white hot in this market. We have the likes of Vanguard eating a large slice of the other asset managers lunch. Disintermediation is happening and we can see all about us direct investment by punters in cheap trackers and ETFs. How can SLA compete? They have no moat!

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215338

Postby Arborbridge » April 16th, 2019, 8:57 am

JoyofBrex8889 wrote:All else being equal, one might perhaps expect SLA to experience a rise in Assets under Management in line with GDP growth.

The problem is competition is now white hot in this market. We have the likes of Vanguard eating a large slice of the other asset managers lunch. Disintermediation is happening and we can see all about us direct investment by punters in cheap trackers and ETFs. How can SLA compete? They have no moat!


Just the sort of worrying which HYP enables us to do without. In the past ten years, I've seen so many scare stories, I'm almost immune to them now. No one can know how the medium term will play out, so I try not to fret (though not always successfully, as people will have notice :? ). That reminds me: I remember patents for drug companies were falling of a cliff. What happened to that? My two drug companies trundle along - AZN doing particularly well with a TR of over 15% and dividends increasing above inflation.

I'll just see what develops whilst keeping a widely diverse portfolio of large, high yielding companies. With 30-40 companies in a portfolio, it is still a risky business, but in my experience, HYP keeps on giving.

Arb.

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215369

Postby Gengulphus » April 16th, 2019, 11:42 am

Dod101 wrote:... Personally I use the actual dividend received/the period end value, and the usual period end I use is the calendar year. ...

I realise that in this particular "9.1%" case you used a yield quoted in a newspaper, not one you calculated yourself, so what I'm about to say isn't directly relevant here... Yields calculated using any price that is significantly different from the current one really ought to have a "NOT TO BE USED FOR SHARE BUYING/SELLING DECISIONS" financial health warning (*) on them when posted on this board, because there's quite a good chance that anyone taking note of yield figures posted to this board is contemplating buying or selling and the price they'll get is the current one when they actually do so - much as one might sometimes wish the price at the end of the previous year was still available!

Share prices can of course change a great deal in a very short period - just seconds in extreme cases. So there's always the risk that the share's yield has changed significantly since one last looked at it - but it's small if the gap between the yield calculation's date and the date one trades is a matter or hours or a few days, much larger when it's months. It can be guarded against by knowing the price used to calculate the yield and making certain the price one trades at is as expected when one trades - either by having that price in mind when getting the "valid for 15 seconds" quote and letting it expire if the price quoted is markedly different, or by setting a limit one is reasonably certain will be met (but might not be if the price moves markedly against one) if one doesn't want to use the "quote valid for 15 seconds" system for some reason (I think the only reason for that that I've encountered with HYPs is that occasionally that system refuses to quote for even quite small numbers of shares - only very occasionally for largecaps, but I have known it happen).

That is of course be more difficult (how much varying from just a bit to so much that it becomes impossible, depending on the source) when one uses a yield obtained from a 3rd-party source than when using a yield one has calculated oneself - this is one of the reasons I only use 3rd-party-sourced yields for initial filtering, not for my final "due diligence" on a share I'm seriously contemplating buying. Not the only such reason, though: 3rd-party sources are more liable to make mistakes such as not currency-translating a dividend declared in euros or dollars, or to fail to make adjustments needed to avoid misleading answers, such as for unusually short or long 'financial years' when a company changes its year end.

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm not saying exactly what the yield calculation should be, just that it should divide by the current share price. Variations such as making the value that's divided by the price (**) be the historical dividend, the rolling historical dividend, the forecast dividend, etc, are more of a matter of taste.

(*) Not meant entirely seriously! But it's a good idea to make what one is doing clear if one does find a need to post a yield calculated using an old price on this board.

(**) Which is actually called the "dividend" in mathematical terminology - a source of confusion I'll avoid!

Gengulphus

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Re: Start topping up again...but what?

#215631

Postby figwold » April 17th, 2019, 12:22 pm

Just looking at Schroders (SRDC) on Hargreaves Lansdown now. It quotes a yield of 1.45%.

Am I missing something?


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