The Lemon Fool

VF makes an appearance on short tracker:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
coming in at page 4, with 4 funds shorting 3.3% of the stock

I hold, nervously
tuk020

I see Carillion is down to 7.2% short from about 25%. Might be worth a nibble if it carries on like that. Someone must know something....

More seriously, I too hold VOD, but see no reason to be nervous - in fact topped up recently. Not everyone will agree, but that's what makes a Market.

I think it is worth noting that in march shorts decreased by 0.18% and the only increase in april was on the 1st and was 0.08% according to short tracker.
Perhaps and lets hope the share will start performing soon.

maximan wrote:Perhaps and lets hope the share will start performing soon.

The critical point to my mind is whether they can afford to finance both all the stuff implied by the document below and the current level of dividend.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LO ... 5_13991311

If they regard issuing shares as a form of capital raising and the dividend level as the price they pay for this capital, they can seemingly borrow at a far cheaper rate than implicit in their dividend costs at their recent share prices.

This sort of hybrid financing has of course been used by, possibly amongst others, SSE and is simply a postponement of the day when they will actually have to pay for their capex. SSE are struggling with their finances and are trying to sell assets. These utilities do not want to have to cut their dividend but reality may well face them in due course.

Vodafone would simply not be able to maintain the current dividend on any rights issue and so that is not an option, so they are borrowing relatively cheaply and postponing the evil day, and 2021/2 is not that far away.

I do not think that the market has much faith in the maintenance of the dividend in either case. SSE has given itself a sort of escape route by announcing they dividend will be cut following the sale of their retail arm, but if that does not happen?

I have over the last few months sold both.

Dod

The sale of Verizon Wireless just looks more idiotic with every passing year.

Dod101 wrote:I have over the last few months sold both.

Dod

Excellent post Dod, thank you. I must admit to being tempted to follow your lead and dump those two. I've been eyeing up Smith DS (SMDS) as a replacement for SSE. Scratching my head with what to do with the readies if I dump Vodafone too?

Ian.

I cannot inspire you I am afraid. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a traditional HYP share , and as I have said before, that universe is getting smaller by the day.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:I cannot inspire you I am afraid. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a traditional HYP share , and as I have said before, that universe is getting smaller by the day.

Dod

No worries Dod. I wouldn’t put you on the spot like that anyway. The decisions are mine alone.

Ian.

Dod101 wrote:I cannot inspire you I am afraid. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a traditional HYP share , and as I have said before, that universe is getting smaller by the day.

Dod

=====================

i find i am still invested in----

3i
astra
aviva
bhp
bats
closeB
easyjet
glaxo
imps
l&g
phoenix
rio
sdrc
rdsb

ds smith
vodafone
BAE

these are not recommendations.

the latter three i may dump altogether soon .

Thanks jd. I would be in Close Brothers as well but I already probably have too many financials. I hold most of your other ones although 3i and infrastructure in general I need to look at.

Dod

jackdaww wrote:
ds smith
vodafone
BAE


the latter three i may dump altogether soon .

Hi jackdaww

ds smith and BAE surprise me in your final comment - could I ask what is leading you to this decision? The only reason I ask is that I'm thinking of topping up BAE owing to the fall in share price and subsequent yield increase, and, I'm thinking of adding ds smith to my HYP as I don't hold them.

Cheers, OLTB.

OLTB wrote:

jackdaww wrote:
ds smith
vodafone
BAE


the latter three i may dump altogether soon .

Hi jackdaww

ds smith and BAE surprise me in your final comment - could I ask what is leading you to this decision? The only reason I ask is that I'm thinking of topping up BAE owing to the fall in share price and subsequent yield increase, and, I'm thinking of adding ds smith to my HYP as I don't hold them.

Cheers, OLTB.

You beat me to it. I was going to ask the same question. I did mention an interest in adding SMDS elsewhere, and have topped up BA. today.

Ian.

idpickering wrote:

OLTB wrote:

jackdaww wrote:
ds smith
vodafone
BAE


the latter three i may dump altogether soon .

Hi jackdaww

ds smith and BAE surprise me in your final comment - could I ask what is leading you to this decision? The only reason I ask is that I'm thinking of topping up BAE owing to the fall in share price and subsequent yield increase, and, I'm thinking of adding ds smith to my HYP as I don't hold them.

Cheers, OLTB.

You beat me to it. I was going to ask the same question. I did mention an interest in adding SMDS elsewhere, and have topped up BA. today.

Ian.

================================

thanks .

i bought these two in a spell of optimism , going against my instincts.

i think its about whether i want to be in these types of business , my gut feeling says not.

i realise that may be not much help , but there it is.

jackdaww wrote:ds smith
vodafone
BAE

these are not recommendations.

the latter three i may dump altogether soon .

Oh dear - why is that? A couple of months ago I took out a new position - in DSSmith. It passed all the usual checks OK, so what are you seeing? It's also in an industry which should be growing.

Arb.

PS just crossed with your reply. So it's just a gut feeling - nothing substantial to put us off if our gut feeling is different! Thus, is made a market.

PPS: bear in mind jackdaww is not a traditional type of HYPer

Arborbridge wrote:PPS: bear in mind jackdaww is not a traditional type of HYPer

My understanding of his (I presume) speculating about dumping those shares is that the intent is not to trade but rather that he is reconsidering whether his purchase decision still actually suits him.

I recall using my normally fairly rigid purchase method to choose a new member of my HYP only to read (here or on TMF) some compelling reasons why the firm in question would probably find their dividend payout unsustainable. Had these events happened the other way around I wouldv'e chosen another candidate or topped up an existing one. So I undid my purchase with a sale. Not a trade in the sense of a speculation on share price, which really wouldn't have been at all HYPish of course. Felt much happier with the dividend sustainability of the replacement.

What I'm trying to say is that jackdaww could conceivably be "a traditional type of HYPer" even with such reservations. E.g. some HYPers don't invest in weapons, well that realisation might come at a stage when they are already invested in them.

Chris