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BT Group down over 3% today.

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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jackdaww
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236357

Postby jackdaww » July 13th, 2019, 8:09 am

daveh wrote:
jackdaww wrote:yet another classic HYP selection bites the dust .

:cry:


#Except the share price is up ~1% today so the bosses comments yesterday haven't hurt the share price.

For me BT is showing an 87% gain (including dividends) and has paid me close to the original investment cost back in dividends. Capital is only showing a small gain. Share price has been a bit of a bumpy ride, as has the dividend, but I've been receiving more income since 2016 than I did before the big dividend cut in 2009.


=============================

when did you buy these? - presumably at around 200p - must have been many years ago .

so its been a good investment for you - a good yield and held its value - so far .

but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS , who have lost half their capital with possibly further down to go.

IanTHughes
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236387

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 10:30 am

jackdaww wrote:
daveh wrote:
jackdaww wrote:yet another classic HYP selection bites the dust .

:cry:


#Except the share price is up ~1% today so the bosses comments yesterday haven't hurt the share price.

For me BT is showing an 87% gain (including dividends) and has paid me close to the original investment cost back in dividends. Capital is only showing a small gain. Share price has been a bit of a bumpy ride, as has the dividend, but I've been receiving more income since 2016 than I did before the big dividend cut in 2009.


=============================

when did you buy these? - presumably at around 200p - must have been many years ago .

so its been a good investment for you - a good yield and held its value - so far .

but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS , who have lost half their capital with possibly further down to go.

In order to be in the position of having lost half the capital, the buying price would have to have been around 395p, a price last seen in the second half of 2016. Of course, the yield then would have been less than 4.0%, hardly a HYP candidate! So the only encouragement, if any existed at all which I doubt, would have come from those that believed in avoiding high yield. Maybe you?

[Personal attack deleted.]


Ian
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236389

Postby Dod101 » July 13th, 2019, 10:57 am

I am sorry ITH uses such emotive language, quite unnecessarily but BT has always been a share where if you get your timing right you could do well, but you need to be a lot more vigilant than I am prepared to be. It has been very volatile over the years, but its underlying problems do not seem to change very much. The large pensions deficit and the need for a large capex seem at times to be under control so the dividend rises and then every so often pressure is brought to bear by the pension scheme trustees and/or the phone regulator and they need to pull in their dividend horns again and suffer a cut. Not really much of a share for a LTBH investor.

Dod

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236391

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 11:01 am

Dod101 wrote:I am sorry ITH uses such emotive language, quite unnecessarily

You don't think that making up facts to further one's specious arguments is using emotive language? Interesting. Each to their own I guess.


Ian

Howard
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236398

Postby Howard » July 13th, 2019, 11:24 am

Dod101 wrote:I am sorry ITH uses such emotive language, quite unnecessarily but BT has always been a share where if you get your timing right you could do well, but you need to be a lot more vigilant than I am prepared to be. It has been very volatile over the years, but its underlying problems do not seem to change very much. The large pensions deficit and the need for a large capex seem at times to be under control so the dividend rises and then every so often pressure is brought to bear by the pension scheme trustees and/or the phone regulator and they need to pull in their dividend horns again and suffer a cut. Not really much of a share for a LTBH investor.

Dod


But couldn't one say something very similar for tobacco shares? Despite your statement above, you have been pretty vigilant about these.

Postby Dod101 » July 3rd, 2019, 8:49 am
Yesterday was a good day for the tobaccos. Not looked today yet.

Surely looking almost daily at a share price is being "vigilant"?

As a holder of BT (and sympathetic to HYPers but not one myself) I have to accept that virtually all my portfolio has its ups and downs. But I'm not inclined to be judgemental about others' choices.

Surely you have to accept with hindsight that in broad terms holding a tobacco share like IMB for the past three years looks just about as foolish as holding BT?

regards

Howard

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236400

Postby Wizard » July 13th, 2019, 11:44 am

IanTHughes wrote:
jackdaww wrote:
daveh wrote:
#Except the share price is up ~1% today so the bosses comments yesterday haven't hurt the share price.

For me BT is showing an 87% gain (including dividends) and has paid me close to the original investment cost back in dividends. Capital is only showing a small gain. Share price has been a bit of a bumpy ride, as has the dividend, but I've been receiving more income since 2016 than I did before the big dividend cut in 2009.


=============================

when did you buy these? - presumably at around 200p - must have been many years ago .

so its been a good investment for you - a good yield and held its value - so far .

but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS , who have lost half their capital with possibly further down to go.

In order to be in the position of having lost half the capital, the buying price would have to have been around 395p, a price last seen in the second half of 2016. Of course, the yield then would have been less than 4.0%, hardly a HYP candidate! So the only encouragement, if any existed at all which I doubt, would have come from those that believed in avoiding high yield. Maybe you?

[Personal attack deleted.]


Ian

At the end of 2016 the yield on BT was above the FTSE 100 yield (3.65% at the time). So yes, BT would very much have been an HYP candidate at that time.

As I have said before your unpleasant and aggressive posts aimed at anyone who you see as being anti-HYP will drive people away from this board and maybe TLF altogether. I hope that going forward that you will consider the tone of your posts on this and the High Yield Strategy board a little more carefully.

Dod101
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236405

Postby Dod101 » July 13th, 2019, 12:01 pm

Howard wrote:But I'm not inclined to be judgemental about others' choices.

Surely you have to accept with hindsight that in broad terms holding a tobacco share like IMB for the past three years looks just about as foolish as holding BT?


For the record I am not being judgemental about others' choices, only about the shares themselves. The difference between BT and the tobaccos is that I think I know (because is it well documented, and anyway it is there for all to see), what is wrong with BT shares. Fundamentally it is because the dividend is often under threat, and that for reasons that I have outlined earlier.

The tobacco dividends do not seem to be under threat and the problems with the tobacco shares have not changed dramatically for a long while; the slow decline of their traditional market and regulations. And yet their yields gave/give the impression that a dividend cut is imminent. The market is not usually so inefficient as to leave these very large yields unchanged for long if there are no threats to the dividends, and that is the great puzzle to me. With hindsight and the dramatic slide in their share prices it is obvious that holding a tobacco share like IMB has not been a good idea, but the decline was largely unseen and to me largely unseeable, whereas I do not think such is the case with BT.

I hope this does not come across has whistling in the dark because it is really how I see things. I ducked out of BT in January 2018 at £2.5871 having finally got the message that it was a most unreliable share. If the tobaccos recover I may or may not sell them and the dilemma is that on the one hand they have an undeniable good yield and on the other they may have a limited life, although I am inclined to think they are unlikely to disappear in the next decade which frankly is about all that I am interested in.

And when I said we could do well with BT, its volatility might make it a decent share to trade and make some gains but it is surely not a share for LTBH.

Dod

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236407

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 12:05 pm

Wizard wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
jackdaww wrote:
=============================

when did you buy these? - presumably at around 200p - must have been many years ago .

so its been a good investment for you - a good yield and held its value - so far .

but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS , who have lost half their capital with possibly further down to go.

In order to be in the position of having lost half the capital, the buying price would have to have been around 395p, a price last seen in the second half of 2016. Of course, the yield then would have been less than 4.0%, hardly a HYP candidate! So the only encouragement, if any existed at all which I doubt, would have come from those that believed in avoiding high yield. Maybe you?

[Personal attack deleted.]

At the end of 2016 the yield on BT was above the FTSE 100 yield (3.65% at the time). So yes, BT would very much have been an HYP candidate at that time.

The HYP Strategy is concerned with the selection of shares with the highest yields available, where the dividend is considered sustainable and of diversification is maintained. The FTSE 100 Yield is irrelevant.

Wizard wrote:As I have said before your unpleasant and aggressive posts aimed at anyone who you see as being anti-HYP will drive people away from this board and maybe TLF altogether. I hope that going forward that you will consider the tone of your posts on this and the High Yield Strategy board a little more carefully.


It is interesting indeed that you, and others no doubt, do not consider a poster who derides the HYP Strategy, nevertheless puts a post on this the HYP Practical board, simply in order to mock HYPers, using made up facts to further his specious arguments, is not being unpleasant and aggressive. Of course this must be because you do not consider the following as being unpleasant and aggressive:
jackdaww wrote:… but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS

Well I do!


Ian

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236419

Postby Walrus101 » July 13th, 2019, 12:44 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Wizard wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:In order to be in the position of having lost half the capital, the buying price would have to have been around 395p, a price last seen in the second half of 2016. Of course, the yield then would have been less than 4.0%, hardly a HYP candidate! So the only encouragement, if any existed at all which I doubt, would have come from those that believed in avoiding high yield. Maybe you?

[Personal attack deleted.]

At the end of 2016 the yield on BT was above the FTSE 100 yield (3.65% at the time). So yes, BT would very much have been an HYP candidate at that time.

The HYP Strategy is concerned with the selection of shares with the highest yields available, where the dividend is considered sustainable and of diversification is maintained. The FTSE 100 Yield is irrelevant.

Wizard wrote:As I have said before your unpleasant and aggressive posts aimed at anyone who you see as being anti-HYP will drive people away from this board and maybe TLF altogether. I hope that going forward that you will consider the tone of your posts on this and the High Yield Strategy board a little more carefully.


It is interesting indeed that you, and others no doubt, do not consider a poster who derides the HYP Strategy, nevertheless puts a post on this the HYP Practical board, simply in order to mock HYPers, using made up facts to further his specious arguments, is not being unpleasant and aggressive. Of course this must be because you do not consider the following as being unpleasant and aggressive:
jackdaww wrote:… but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS

Well I do!


Ian


Come on buddy I think you are being a bit OTT here. 4% the back end of 2016 was certainly HYPable. This world of company yields of 7 to 10 percent is new to me as a fairly recent follower of income strategies which is a good 5 years or so.

FWIW I don't think anyone is being particularly anti HYP. What is a fact us that a large portion of our HYP investible universe have a number of issues. With interests rates as low as they, you could prob make an argument that anything free cash flow yielding more than 5 percent you are probably being compensated for something other than purely equity market risk and rather likely some company specific issues.

moorfield
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236423

Postby moorfield » July 13th, 2019, 1:02 pm

IanTHughes wrote:The HYP Strategy is concerned with the selection of shares with the highest yields available, where the dividend is considered sustainable and of diversification is maintained. The FTSE 100 Yield is irrelevant.


The FTSE 100 yield is relevant to those who use it as a relative measure for selection purposes, as I do - I've been burnt by chasing too high yields a few times now which is why I decided to adopt a ceiling and save myself the pfaff of truffling around accounts to divine whether a dividend might be sustainable or not. BT is nearly 2x today, I wouldn't buy at such yield until (i) it's ability to continue paying and growing the dividend demonstrably improves, after which a rise in share price/fall in yield would presumably follow or (ii) the size of the dividend cut, and subsequent yield, is known (as has happened recently with Vodafone).

IanTHughes
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236426

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 1:19 pm

Walrus101 wrote:Come on buddy I think you are being a bit OTT here. 4% the back end of 2016 was certainly HYPable.

The yield was significantly less than 4.00% until the end of January 2017, when the price did drop fairly significantly over a fairly short period of time.

But you are entirely missing the point. In order to have lost 50% of capital as was claimed here:

jackdaww wrote:but not so good for those buying in more recent times, no doubt encouraged by bullish HYPERS , who have lost half their capital with possibly further down to go.

the price on purchase would have to have been at least 395p. That price has not been seen since around July 2016, and of course the yield was then nowhere near 4.00%!

So, the remark about "bullish HYPers" was plainly wrong and must have been made up simply to mock HYPers


Ian

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236434

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 1:36 pm

moorfield wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:The HYP Strategy is concerned with the selection of shares with the highest yields available, where the dividend is considered sustainable and of diversification is maintained. The FTSE 100 Yield is irrelevant.


The FTSE 100 yield is relevant to those who use it as a relative measure for selection purposes, as I do - I've been burnt by chasing too high yields a few times now which is why I decided to adopt a ceiling and save myself the pfaff of truffling around accounts to divine whether a dividend might be sustainable or not. BT is nearly 2x today, I wouldn't buy at such yield until (i) it's ability to continue paying and growing the dividend demonstrably improves, after which a rise in share price/fall in yield would presumably follow or (ii) the size of the dividend cut, and subsequent yield, is known (as has happened recently with Vodafone).

I am not suggesting that buying BT at the moment is a good or bad idea, that is something entirely up to the individual investor, whether an HYPer or not!

I was merely pointing out that the details being supplied in order to deride the HYP Strategy and mock so-called "bullish HYPers" was made up nonsense!


Ian

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236445

Postby csearle » July 13th, 2019, 2:42 pm

IanTHughes wrote:...


Moderator Message:
Please see this post. You are not the soul arbiter of what may or may not be posted on this board so try and remain polite when faced with posters that apply slightly different criteria. If a post is wildly breaching the guidlines then please simply report it. Thanks - Chris

IanTHughes
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236446

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 2:47 pm

csearle wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:...


Moderator Message:
Please see this post. You are not the soul arbiter of what may or may not be posted on this board so try and remain polite when faced with posters that apply slightly different criteria. If a post is wildly breaching the guidlines then please simply report it. Thanks - Chris

I did report it


Ian

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236454

Postby PinkDalek » July 13th, 2019, 3:24 pm

What is a soul arbiter? Sounds a bit fishy to me.

IanTHughes
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236456

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 3:26 pm

PinkDalek wrote:What is a soul arbiter? Sounds a bit fishy to me.

I thought it was some sort of musician! :D

Ian

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236476

Postby TUK020 » July 13th, 2019, 5:10 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
PinkDalek wrote:What is a soul arbiter? Sounds a bit fishy to me.

I thought it was some sort of musician! :D

Ian

Nope, a bouncer at the pearly gates...

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236493

Postby 88V8 » July 13th, 2019, 8:10 pm

IanTHughes wrote:The FTSE 100 Yield is irrelevant.


Not really. It's the moving benchmark against which we judge 'high'.
I'm reliably informed that even Unilever was 'high' once.

V8

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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236494

Postby csearle » July 13th, 2019, 8:27 pm

Ok so I meant "sole". :D

IanTHughes
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Re: BT Group down over 3% today.

#236495

Postby IanTHughes » July 13th, 2019, 8:31 pm

88V8 wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:The FTSE 100 Yield is irrelevant.


Not really. It's the moving benchmark against which we judge 'high'.

I did not say it was irrelevant to everybody, only the HYP Strategy.


Ian


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