Tobacco shares

[Bouleversee]

I haven't spotted any mention of the announcement that San Francisco is banning vaping. Do I take it that nobody considers it of sufficient impact to be worthy of comment? What if other states follow suit? Sufficient unto the day perhaps? Or maybe this subject belongs on another board.

[idpickering]

I haven't spotted any mention of the announcement that San Francisco is banning vaping. Do I take it that nobody considers it of sufficient impact to be worthy of comment? What if other states follow suit? Sufficient unto the day perhaps? Or maybe this subject belongs on another board.

Hello Lorna, thanks for raising this topic. I hold both Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco in my HYP, so I think your topic is on the correct board. I'm not surprised by this ban, and BATS seems to have come off worse today looking at the share price on market close today, that being down 1.8%, with IMB going the other way, up 0.5%. As to whether these movements are to do with regards to this topic I don't know. I'm going to monitor this going forward, but shan't panic about it. Also BATS went ex divi today.

Ian.

[PinkDalek]

I haven't spotted any mention of the announcement that San Francisco is banning vaping. Do I take it that nobody considers it of sufficient impact to be worthy of comment? ...

monabri mentioned it yesterday morning over at Company Share news (LSE Main Market) viewtopic.php?p=232100#p232100

[Bouleversee]

Thanks, PD. It was only in The Times today so I missed that. I agree with those who said it's crazy to ban vaping but not tobacco products. However, is it likely to have any significant effect on the profits of BATS and IMB if other states follow suit? They are all apparently worried about the massive uptake of vaping by youngsters. In the global context, however, that may be a drop in the ocean.

[daveh]

Thanks, PD. It was only in The Times today so I missed that. I agree with those who said it's crazy to ban vaping but not tobacco products. However, is it likely to have any significant effect on the profits of BATS and IMB if other states follow suit? They are all apparently worried about the massive uptake of vaping by youngsters. In the global context, however, that may be a drop in the ocean.

It might be positive for IMB and BATs as it will force vapers back to fags which will favour the big tobacco companies over the new start Juul. I think the decision is perverse as vaping is much safer than smoking (though probably not totally safe). What is needed is sensible regulation to keep vaping away from minors and to regulate what goes into the liquid that is vaporised so that it doesn't contain anything that has cancer risk.

[tjh290633]

They may be trying to head off anyone who is going into vaping cannabis products, probably more popular in San Francisco than tobacco.

TJH

[Dod101]

Sadly, almost any form of living is not safe, but I would have thought that vaping was safer than smoking tobacco. I suspect that we will be better off by weaning ourselves off tobacco shares entirely. I still hold both BAT and Imperial Brands though.

Dod

[Bouleversee]

Sadly, almost any form of living is not safe, but I would have thought that vaping was safer than smoking tobacco. I suspect that we will be better off by weaning ourselves off tobacco shares entirely. I still hold both BAT and Imperial Brands though.

Dod

Me, too. For a number of reasons, I wish I held neither but am losing so much (48% on IMB) that I don't want to sell at the moment. Should there be any significant recovery, I'll be out like a shot.

[Lootman]

They may be trying to head off anyone who is going into vaping cannabis products, probably more popular in San Francisco than tobacco.

Yes, the irony here is that San Francisco has marijuana "clinics" all over the city, and does not meaningfully restrict the sale of tobacco.

I think the problem was more that the vapers adopted a strategy of targeting kids, and that may have been their downfall.

Also bear in mind that although San Francisco likes to think of itself as the leading barometer of where the US and the world is heading, in practice most of the time their often whacky ideas are never adopted. Another irony is that Juul has its HQ in San Francisco, but then again so does Uber and Airbnb, and the city has taken shots at both of them as well.

[TUK020]

They may be trying to head off anyone who is going into vaping cannabis products, probably more popular in San Francisco than tobacco.

TJH

this is actually what I see as the big growth opportunity for the big baccy companies

[bjmarren]

Hi,

I'm mainly a lurker here but, like some I'm down quite a bit, paper wise, on both IMB and BATS. I've been pondering whether to take the opportunity of the depressed share prices to average down, as like TUK020, I see this as a big opportunity for the baccy companies. It's difficult to judge whether the share prices have bottomed out as it's almost impossible to time entries in these sorts of situations. I'll probably monitor prices for another week or so before deciding. I'm more tempted to spend more IMB given that BATS is more USA reliant on its income.

Cheers!

BJ

[idpickering]

Hi,

I'm mainly a lurker here but, like some I'm down quite a bit, paper wise, on both IMB and BATS. I've been pondering whether to take the opportunity of the depressed share prices to average down, as like TUK020, I see this as a big opportunity for the baccy companies. It's difficult to judge whether the share prices have bottomed out as it's almost impossible to time entries in these sorts of situations. I'll probably monitor prices for another week or so before deciding. I'm more tempted to spend more IMB given that BATS is more USA reliant on its income.

Cheers!

BJ

Hi BJ, I've topped up both tobacco companies 4 times in the last year, up to my own self imposed spend per share limit. I shan't be topping up again for a while I guess, but am happy to just hold.

Ian.

[Dod101]

Logically now should be a good time to top up the tobaccos but presumably Woodford is now no longer selling and yet there is as yet no positive movement upwards. I will probably sell at least some of my tobacco holdings if there is a decent upswing. I have simply lost faith in them.

Dod

[idpickering]

Logically now should be a good time to top up the tobaccos but presumably Woodford is now no longer selling and yet there is as yet no positive movement upwards. I will probably sell at least some of my tobacco holdings if there is a decent upswing. I have simply lost faith in them.

Dod

I hear you Dod. I’m just going to hold and enjoy the income. Imho, less fiddling is more, and cheaper too.

Ian.

[StepOne]

Sadly, almost any form of living is not safe, but I would have thought that vaping was safer than smoking tobacco. I suspect that we will be better off by weaning ourselves off tobacco shares entirely. I still hold both BAT and Imperial Brands though.

Dod

Me, too. For a number of reasons, I wish I held neither but am losing so much (48% on IMB) that I don't want to sell at the moment. Should there be any significant recovery, I'll be out like a shot.

Hi B,

That, if you don't mind me saying, sounds crazy. The loss (or profit) you are making is totally irrelevant to the future prospects of the company. If you think IMB is a decent investment at this price, then hold, if not then sell.

StepOne

[StepOne]

Logically now should be a good time to top up the tobaccos but presumably Woodford is now no longer selling and yet there is as yet no positive movement upwards. I will probably sell at least some of my tobacco holdings if there is a decent upswing. I have simply lost faith in them.

Dod

I hear you Dod. I’m just going to hold and enjoy the income. Imho, less fiddling is more, and cheaper too.

Ian.

Spot on Ian,

Cheers,
StepOne

[IanTHughes]

I'm mainly a lurker here but, like some I'm down quite a bit, paper wise, on both IMB and BATS. I've been pondering whether to take the opportunity of the depressed share prices to average down, as like TUK020, I see this as a big opportunity for the baccy companies. It's difficult to judge whether the share prices have bottomed out as it's almost impossible to time entries in these sorts of situations. I'll probably monitor prices for another week or so before deciding. I'm more tempted to spend more IMB given that BATS is more USA reliant on its income.

Do not fixate on "averaging down", that is a mug's game! Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that you should not buy either Imperial Brands PLC (IMB) or British American Tobacco Group (BATS), only that if you do so it should be because they present a good buying opportunity at the current price, not because you want to make your overall purchase price look better!

With regard to share prices bottoming out, my first and only purchase of BATS was on 10 Jan 2019 since when the value of my holding has increased by 10.38%. Of course, during the last couple of months I have twice topped up my IMB holding and both are underwater price-wise!

So who can tell whether the prices have now bottomed out? Well not me that is for sure and I would wager that neither can you, so forget about trying to "Time the Market"! Just determine whether the dividend looks to be sustainable and the current price looks to be good value. If "Yes", buy. If "No", don't buy!


Ian

[Dod101]

What is the world coming to. Here I am agreeing with ITH. The dividends look at least sustainable to me and on that basis I will not be selling but I would be hard pressed to be persuaded that I should be adding to them. As a very long time holder of both Imps and BATs I am still well in the money with both of them. It is simply very frustrating to me to see the price erosion of the last few years and no sign of any real recovery at the moment.

It seriously makes me wonder if I am missing something because the market is not normally so out of kilter with what looks like common sense, by which I mean, this is surely a great opportunity to be buying the tobaccos and yet it is not happening.

Dod

[IanTHughes]

It seriously makes me wonder if I am missing something because the market is not normally so out of kilter with what looks like common sense, by which I mean, this is surely a great opportunity to be buying the tobaccos and yet it is not happening.

Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent

Ian

[monabri]

Dod
You mentioned earlier that Woodford has presumably completed selling his IMB holding. How does one know if this is the case?
monabri

(ps...lie down, the feeling of concord will pass.)