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Aviva Half Yearly.

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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idpickering
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Aviva Half Yearly.

#242595

Postby idpickering » August 8th, 2019, 7:22 am


Profit

· Operating EPS1,‡# up 2% to 27.3 pence (HY18: 26.8 pence)

· Operating profit2,‡# up 1% to £1,448 million (HY18: £1,438 million)

· IFRS profit after tax £1,180 million (HY18: £376 million)

· Basic EPS 28.2 pence (HY18: 7.9 pence)


Dividend

· Interim dividend per share up 3% to 9.50 pence (HY18: 9.25 pence)


Capital

· Solvency II cover ratio3,‡ 194% (2018: 204%)

· Solvency II capital surplus3 £11.8 billion (2018: £12.0 billion)

· Operating capital generation# £0.8 billion (HY18: £0.9 billion)

· IFRS net asset value per share 432 pence (2018: 424 pence)


Cash

· Cash remittances‡# £1,582 million (HY18: £1,493 million)

· Holding company liquidity £2.3 billion4 (February 2019: £1.6 billion)

And later;

Aviva's Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of 9.50 pence per share. This represents an increase of 3% compared with the interim dividend in 2018. Following a five year period in which the dividend per share doubled, the process of normalising the payout ratio is complete. Accordingly, the trajectory of the dividend reflects the underlying performance of the business, taking into consideration the external environment, in line with our progressive dividend policy.



https://www.investegate.co.uk/aviva-plc ... 00113233I/

nb this is part 1 of 4.

ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242602

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » August 8th, 2019, 7:50 am

At this rate, the dividend per share might eventually get back up to what it was in 2008, or even 2002.

Best wishes

Mark.

idpickering
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242606

Postby idpickering » August 8th, 2019, 7:59 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:At this rate, the dividend per share might eventually get back up to what it was in 2008, or even 2002.

Best wishes

Mark.


I get you. It's certainly not been the ideal HYP share. I've spent enough there already, and am fully weighted, and have no intention of buying any more of their shares. I shall just hold, and enjoy the dividend on offer.

Ian.

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242610

Postby scrumpyjack » August 8th, 2019, 8:18 am

As I recall the 2002 divi was about 44p (and the SP about 1200p)

and don't mention the golden ticket issue in their French company!

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242614

Postby monabri » August 8th, 2019, 8:24 am

scrumpyjack wrote:As I recall the 2002 divi was about 44p (and the SP about 1200p)

and don't mention the golden ticket issue in their French company!


Historical dividend payments.

Code: Select all

Year End | Interim | Final  | Special | Total  | Growth
12/2018  | 9.25p   | 20.75p |       - | 30.00p |   9.49%
12/2017  | 8.40p   | 19.00p |       - | 27.40p |  17.60%
12/2016  | 7.42p   | 15.88p |       - | 23.30p |  12.02%
12/2015  | 6.75p   | 14.05p |       - | 20.80p |  14.92%
12/2014  | 5.85p   | 12.25p |       - | 18.10p |  20.67%
12/2013  | 5.60p   | 9.40p  |       - | 15.00p | -21.05%
12/2012  | 10.00p  | 9.00p  |       - | 19.00p | -26.92%
12/2011  | 10.00p  | 16.00p |       - | 26.00p |   1.96%
12/2010  | 9.50p   | 16.00p |       - | 25.50p |   6.25%
12/2009  | 9.00p   | 15.00p |       - | 24.00p | -27.27%
12/2008  | 13.09p  | 19.91p |       - | 33.00p |   0.00%
12/2007  | 11.90p  | 21.10p |       - | 33.00p |  10.00%
12/2006  | 10.82p  | 19.18p |       - | 30.00p |  10.01%
12/2005  | 9.83p   | 17.44p |       - | 27.27p |   7.53%
12/2004  | 9.36p   | 16.00p |       - | 25.36p |   5.01%
12/2003  | 9.00p   | 15.15p |       - | 24.15p |   5.00%
12/2002  | 8.75p   | 14.25p |       - | 23.00p | -39.47%
12/2001  | 14.25p  | 23.75p |       - | 38.00p |   0.00%
12/2000  | 14.25p  | 23.75p |       - | 38.00p |   0.00%




https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=AV.

Frankly, I'm a little disappointed with the level of increase in the dividend.....I was hoping for a little more ( monabri...aka "Oliver").

pyad
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242623

Postby pyad » August 8th, 2019, 8:46 am

scrumpyjack wrote:As I recall the 2002 divi was about 44p (and the SP about 1200p)

and don't mention the golden ticket issue in their French company!


In that case I suggest you lay off the scrumpy jack
Moderator Message:
RS: expletive phrase removed


As monabri's link shows, since 2000 the div maxed at 38p but that was in 2000 and 01. For 02 that you mention it was cut to 23p. It's never been anywhere near 44p since 2000.

Moreover, my source assuming it's correct shows that in the same time the price reached a max of 1,097p but that was in July 2000. The price in 02 that you mention ranged between about 460-847p so massively lower than the 1,200p you mention.

AV. has got a patchy div record, no question of that, but get your facts right before posting guff here.

Incidentally, at 384p and assuming the interim div increase is repeated for the final to make 30.8p for 2019, the forecast yield is 8.0%
Last edited by pyad on August 8th, 2019, 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

scrumpyjack
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242625

Postby scrumpyjack » August 8th, 2019, 8:51 am

Do calm down pyad, you must have got out of bed the wrong side this morning. Yes, it's obviously far less catastrophic that the sp has only fallen from £11 to 3.84 rather than from £12.

But that's fine as the sp doesn't matter at all. I'm sure that thought is a huge relief to holders of Burford capital this morning.

Arborbridge
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242629

Postby Arborbridge » August 8th, 2019, 9:00 am

"Following a five year period in which the dividend per share doubled, the process of normalising the payout ratio is complete. Accordingly, the trajectory of the dividend reflects the underlying performance of the business, taking into consideration the external environment, in line with our progressive dividend policy."

that's a nice piece of corporate jargon writing!

Interesting, in that there were comments somewhere on the HYP board suggesting that "progressive" effectively means "increasing even when eps does not entirely justify it". Whereas here they seem to want progressive but also reflect the underlying business. I suppose it can be both if you mash up the meanings sufficiently, but it seems to be that the two are always compatible. Reflecting the underlying business (and that's a weasel expression too) could result in a decreasing (i.e. non-progressive) dividend.

With a shocking XIRR of just 0.81% since 2007, I can say that not having bought Aviva would have been a good thing (provided I hadn't bought something worse, of course 8-) ). On the bright side, I've had five years of "progessing" income, but paid for by my own capital which is still significantly underwater.
Not one of the best choices, but then no one's perfect, and HYP is all about the portfolio income ;)

Arb.

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242632

Postby PinkDalek » August 8th, 2019, 9:10 am

Released later at 9:00pm, reflecting the relevant dates:

Ordinary and Preference Dividend Declaration
Released 09:00 08-Aug-2019
RNS Number : 3687I
Aviva PLC
08 August 2019

AVIVA PLC
2019 Interim Dividend on Aviva plc Ordinary Shares


https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 81411.html

tjh290633
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242661

Postby tjh290633 » August 8th, 2019, 10:51 am

If you persevere into Part 4, you find:


https://www.investegate.co.uk/aviva-plc ... 00293224I/

2019 financial year calendar

Ordinary interim ex-dividend date 15 August 2019

Interim dividend record date 16 August 2019

Last day for Dividend Reinvestment Plan and
currency election 5 September 2019

Interim dividend payment date(1) 26 September 2019

Full year results announcement(2) 5 March 2020

1 Please note that the ADR dividend payment date will be 2 October 2019.

2 This date is provisional and subject to change.

TJH

monabri
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242667

Postby monabri » August 8th, 2019, 11:00 am

idpickering wrote:


Aviva's Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of 9.50 pence per share. This represents an increase of 3% compared with the interim dividend in 2018. Following a five year period in which the dividend per share doubled, the process of normalising the payout ratio is complete. Accordingly, the trajectory of the dividend reflects the underlying performance of the business, taking into consideration the external environment, in line with our progressive dividend policy.





Last years interim was 9.25p. It has been increased by 3%..to 9.50p.

9.25p x 1.03 = ???

PinkDalek
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242675

Postby PinkDalek » August 8th, 2019, 11:09 am

monabri wrote:Last years interim was 9.25p. It has been increased by 3%..to 9.50p.

9.25p x 1.03 = ???


A fair point but, on a quick search, all %s in Part 1 are rounded up or down.

PinkDalek
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242678

Postby PinkDalek » August 8th, 2019, 11:15 am

tjh290633 wrote:If you persevere into Part 4, you find: ...


Alternatively wait for the later announcement as referenced in the post immediately before yours (albeit that RNS doesn't provide all the information you've extracted). :)

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242688

Postby Dod101 » August 8th, 2019, 12:10 pm

From their record (I do not hold) it must be getting near to the time of another rebasing of their dividend. This is simply a hopeless share.

Dod

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242689

Postby Arborbridge » August 8th, 2019, 12:21 pm

Dod101 wrote:From their record (I do not hold) it must be getting near to the time of another rebasing of their dividend. This is simply a hopeless share.

Dod


That's a point I've sometimes pondered myself - we wait for five years of rising dividends (according to HYP guidelines), and then buy just in time for the next cut!

Whether it's a hopeless share for the future or not no one can tell, I can tell you my past experience has been poor. You've been proved right, not having invested years ago, but no one could have known what the ten year horizon would bring. Without the share being trashed in financial crash of 2007-2008 (when there was talk of insurance companies like this going to the wall - and some did) who can say if Aviva would by now have been paying record dividends. My bad luck I bought it pre-crash - but it survived.

Arb.

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242692

Postby IanTHughes » August 8th, 2019, 12:30 pm

Dod101 wrote:From their record (I do not hold) it must be getting near to the time of another rebasing of their dividend. This is simply a hopeless share.

I disagree, I think it has been an HYP stalwart. Based on my records:

Aviva PLC (AV) Annual Dividend Increases

3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
9.09% | 10.82% | 2.34%

On what do you base your analysis of “hopeless”?


Ian
Holder since Feb 2012 - Annual Return: 6.89%

Dod101
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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242695

Postby Dod101 » August 8th, 2019, 12:43 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Dod101 wrote:From their record (I do not hold) it must be getting near to the time of another rebasing of their dividend. This is simply a hopeless share.

I disagree, I think it has been an HYP stalwart. Based on my records:

Aviva PLC (AV) Annual Dividend Increases

3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
9.09% | 10.82% | 2.34%

On what do you base your analysis of “hopeless”?


Arb has put some flesh on my comments and just look at the dividend table shown earlier in this thread. Aviva, like its stable mate RSA, has far too much baggage for my liking, and no sooner do they appear to have got themselves sorted out than along comes something else. Much better to buy a recently established general insurer like Direct Line or Admiral, although I am inclined to think that Admiral's best days may be behind it. I hold Admiral but in all prefer the life insurers like Legal & General, Chesnara and Phoenix Holdings. We can all pick holes in any share or find something to worry about but I hold these three plus Admiral. To me, these are the insurance stalwarts but we must never be complacent.

Dod

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242698

Postby IanTHughes » August 8th, 2019, 12:53 pm

Dod101 wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
Dod101 wrote:From their record (I do not hold) it must be getting near to the time of another rebasing of their dividend. This is simply a hopeless share.

I disagree, I think it has been an HYP stalwart. Based on my records:

Aviva PLC (AV) Annual Dividend Increases

3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
9.09% | 10.82% | 2.34%

On what do you base your analysis of “hopeless”?

Arb has put some flesh on my comments and just look at the dividend table shown earlier in this thread. Aviva, like its stable mate RSA, has far too much baggage for my liking, and no sooner do they appear to have got themselves sorted out than along comes something else.

So nothing concrete on AV then? In which case "Hopeless" seems a little harsh.

Still, I use the actual dividend record to say "HYP Stalwart" whereas you, faced with the same record, say "Hopeless". I will stick to my analysis I think.


Ian

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242701

Postby Arborbridge » August 8th, 2019, 12:56 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Dod101 wrote:From their record (I do not hold) it must be getting near to the time of another rebasing of their dividend. This is simply a hopeless share.

I disagree, I think it has been an HYP stalwart. Based on my records:

Aviva PLC (AV) Annual Dividend Increases

3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
9.09% | 10.82% | 2.34%

On what do you base your analysis of “hopeless”?


Ian
Holder since Feb 2012 - Annual Return: 6.89%


I think it shows that "time in the market" isn't everything, and that "timing the market" can be more important then HYPers think.

The main different between your experience and mine is just the holding period. From my perspective of buying in 2006-7, I would struggle to use the word "stalwart" as my dividends have reduced (though increasing lately, of course) and my payouts have effectively been made by the capital I've seen shrink, by about 23%.

What we can say is that here's a company which weathered the worst financial crisis in our generation when other big financials were going bust and since then has show an excellent enthusiasm to re-established its dividend value.
It isn't all "hopeless" but it isn't great either!


Arb.

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Re: Aviva Half Yearly.

#242707

Postby seagles » August 8th, 2019, 1:05 pm

I have recently added Aviva to my portfolio (last month). I looked at my top-up options and then checked "new" companies that met my criteria. Avivo came up and (at that time) gave a better yield than my selected top-up share, so added Aviva to stand alongside my Legal & General. Time will tell if it was the right decision.


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