The Lemon Fool

IanTHughes wrote:

Dod101 wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:I disagree, I think it has been an HYP stalwart. Based on my records:

Aviva PLC (AV) Annual Dividend Increases

3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
  9.09% |  10.82% |    2.34%

On what do you base your analysis of “hopeless”?

Arb has put some flesh on my comments and just look at the dividend table shown earlier in this thread. Aviva, like its stable mate RSA, has far too much baggage for my liking, and no sooner do they appear to have got themselves sorted out than along comes something else.

So nothing concrete on AV then? In which case "Hopeless" seems a little harsh.

Still, I use the actual dividend record to say "HYP Stalwart" whereas you, faced with the same record, say "Hopeless". I will stick to my analysis I think.

Ian

Over the 10 years that you cite (and in which I have been a holder), Aviva's annual dividend increases have only very modestly beaten CPI inflation, which I calculate at 1.6% per annum over the period.

I'm glad I don't have many more such stalwarts in my HYP.

MDW1954

Arborbridge wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:But the only point that I am trying to make is that, for HYP purposes - this is after all the HYP Practical board - a 5 year history of double-digit percentage dividend increases makes AV, if already held within an HYP, a success and a definite candidate for an HYP that does not already hold it.

But I'm not tempted further as the discussion has become circular.[Deleted]

Fair enough but, just one final question for you if I may?

I do understand what you are saying about the long-term dividend history for Aviva PLC (AV). The ups and then downs of that dividend over 10, 15 whatever number of years is not good. Of course I accept that, I am not blind! However, I hope that you will also accept that the performance over the last 5 years - double digit annual dividend increases - is good, at least from an HYP perspective. i.e. Income received.

So my final question is this: If 5 years is not enough, how much longer than 5 years must a share such as AV show improvement from 10, 15, whatever number of years ago, before you will accept it as an HYP candidate?


Ian
No more from me on this subject

IanTHughes wrote:So my final question is this: If 5 years is not enough, how much longer than 5 years must a share such as AV show improvement from 10, 15, whatever number of years ago, before you will accept it as an HYP candidate?

Ian
No more from me on this subject

Let me answer that, even though you and Arb may be disinclined to continue the discussion.

I think that five years is perfectly acceptable for a share to be reckoned as a HYP candidate.

For a HYP stalwart, I look for a much longer history -- at least ten years, and ideally longer. And over that period, Aviva's history has been chequered, as you concede.

I did buy more Aviva, in early 2018. I like the recovery. But my holdings of Legal & General and Phoenix are much, much larger. And I feel far more comfortable with them.

MDW1954

MDW1954 wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:So my final question is this: If 5 years is not enough, how much longer than 5 years must a share such as AV show improvement from 10, 15, whatever number of years ago, before you will accept it as an HYP candidate?

Let me answer that, even though you and Arb may be disinclined to continue the discussion.

I think that five years is perfectly acceptable for a share to be reckoned as a HYP candidate.

For a HYP stalwart, I look for a much longer history -- at least ten years, and ideally longer. And over that period, Aviva's history has been chequered, as you concede.

Fair enough I should have said: AV has been a HYP stalwart in my HYP. Because of course I bought in early 2012, only 7 years ago.

But I am pleased to see that you agree that the record over the past 5 years - double digit annual dividend increases - is good enough to make it an HYP candidate. I was beginning to think that I was the only one!

In fact, all I was originally arguing against was the idea that, from an HYP perspective, AV was "Hopeless" and a share that "should be avoided". An analysis that I believe to be entirely incorrect, and here I must stress again, from an HYP perspective


Ian

I have had some GACA ever since the row about the capital reduction (I bought on the dip), but have now gone into the equity a bit.

It strikes me that AV are suffering from some form of UK market brexit uncertainty. I cannot see anything that would cause them to dip down to a PE of 10 and prospective yield of 8% other than that.

I now accept that the issue about the odd French contracts is probably not an issue.

Is anyone aware of any substantive reason why they should be so cheap (given the yield) other than people find them a bit boring.

johnhemming wrote:Is anyone aware of any substantive reason why they should be so cheap (given the yield) other than people find them a bit boring.

Financials are all rather cheap. Take a look at Legal & General, a share with a better dividend record than Aviva. A yield of 6.8% and PE of about 8.

Dod

Well, I've put half the cash realised by my recent sale of BKG into Aviva. I certainly wasn't holding AV. in the halcyon days of 2001, but I am around break-even on the capital side, whilst seeing reasonable dividend growth over my holding period.

The balance of the BKG cash, plus accumulated dividends, will be going into the market during the next couple of months - I'm hoping for a Brexit -related slide in my UK-oriented HYP favourites, which may possibly help to add a point or two to the portfolio yield.

But I always was an optimist....

;¬)

Interesting stuff. I've been a holder since 2010, and seem to have a XIRR of 10%. I've had 60% of my investment back as dividends, and the capital is up 40%. Seems to have been a reasonable return to me, I've certainly had worse! Agree the dividend per share record is not great though...

ax1709cjm wrote: I've had 60% of my investment back as dividends, and the capital is up 40%. Seems to have been a reasonable return to me

The price has been all over the place in the last ten years. Low of 255 in May 2012, highs of 570 in March 2015 and 550 in May 2018. It's down 1% today.

That's stability compared to its thirty year history. Up to 1280 in April 1998 and down to 163.3 in March 2009

http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stock ... E%24%24ALL

ax1709cjm wrote:Interesting stuff. I've been a holder since 2010, and seem to have a XIRR of 10%. I've had 60% of my investment back as dividends, and the capital is up 40%. Seems to have been a reasonable return to me, I've certainly had worse! Agree the dividend per share record is not great though...

Three years makes a difference I bought in 2007 when the share was chosen in Pyad's HYP4. The price is still about half what it was then and dividend is 10% lower than my 2008 payout, but more than halved by 2014.

Fortunately, the dividend has come back fairly quickly and having been through the pain, I'm not about to sell out. I shall find out in due course whether Dod is correct about the future of the dividend. Whatever, "stalwart" it's not, "dividend aristocrat" it's not: but neither is it hopeless, in my view.

Interestingly, it has risen again to number 4 in my topup table, behind PSN, BT and SLA.

I also note Dod's comment that financials are cheap at the moment. It's been that way for a while, actually, with the result that I am now pretty full up with them.

Arb.

My initial purchase was of Norwich Union shares at demutualisation in 1997 priced at £3.50.

They merged with CGU in 2000 with a conversion of 48 CGU for ever 100 NU shares giving an initial cost of £7.29.

I subsequently started a HYP and put the shares, now known as Aviva in there in 2006 and have topped up a couple of times since.

I sold out in April this year at £4.34 to finance an ISA.

XIRR from 2006 to 2019 when I first started recording dividends has been 1.42% and I haven't repurchased within the ISA.

Should I have stuck with them?

Far from the worst share I've owned

I hold AV. in my HYP. Bought in 2011. Just received dividends since then XIRR 7.3%.

Chris

Davidsb wrote:Well, I've put half the cash realised by my recent sale of BKG into Aviva. I certainly wasn't holding AV. in the halcyon days of 2001, but I am around break-even on the capital side, whilst seeing reasonable dividend growth over my holding period.

The balance of the BKG cash, plus accumulated dividends, will be going into the market during the next couple of months - I'm hoping for a Brexit -related slide in my UK-oriented HYP favourites, which may possibly help to add a point or two to the portfolio yield.

But I always was an optimist....

You are indeed an optimist. I think you would have been better buying Legal and General o r for that matter Phoenix Holdings. Why Aviva with its patchy record?

Dod

Hargreaves Lansdown report on Aviva.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-resea ... der-review

I now learn that BKG is Berkeley Group Holdings so I guess that Aviva is not so bad after all. I would still rather hold Legal & General or Phoenix Group Holdings.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:

Davidsb wrote:Well, I've put half the cash realised by my recent sale of BKG into Aviva. I certainly wasn't holding AV. in the halcyon days of 2001, but I am around break-even on the capital side, whilst seeing reasonable dividend growth over my holding period.

The balance of the BKG cash, plus accumulated dividends, will be going into the market during the next couple of months - I'm hoping for a Brexit -related slide in my UK-oriented HYP favourites, which may possibly help to add a point or two to the portfolio yield.
But I always was an optimist....

You are indeed an optimist. I think you would have been better buying Legal and General or for that matter Phoenix Holdings. Why Aviva with its patchy record?

Who can tell, maybe it was the Higher Yield allied with AV's unblemished 5 year dividend record that clinched it? What do you reckon?


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:Who can tell, maybe it was the Higher Yield allied with AV's unblemished 5 year dividend record that clinched it? What do you reckon?


Ian

You tease

As IanTHughes says, the 8.3% dividend (LGEN = 7.2%), the cover of 1.9x (LGEN = 1.8x) and P/E of 6.8 (LGEN = 8.0) added together to tip the scales in favour of Aviva.

My OCD-biased thought process was also influenced by the fact that the BKG cash was in my ISA acount which also holds my existing stake in AV, whereas my LGEN holding is with another broker's ISA account. LGEN may well get the next top-up in that account - the only downside there is that the Telegraph's Questor column thinks that LGEN is undervalued.....

;¬)