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Potential August topups

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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IanTHughes
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Re: Potential August topups

#243371

Postby IanTHughes » August 10th, 2019, 5:40 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Here's the top twelve of my table in my usual format ranked in HYPTUSS order:-



This would be my first topup since April, and owing to the market falls, there are some extraordinary yields on offer - even at lower points of this list. The sweetshop is well and truly open with too many delights available.

Persimmon is possible, though an economic topup would push it over the 5% income limit.
All the others are valid choices so it's open season on any one of the top group - though I may decide to sit out another month.

Arb.

I would advise that you simply purchase the highest yield available where:

1) The Dividend appears sustainable, and
2) Such a purchase passes all other criteria that you normally apply

Did you expect me to say anything else?


Ian

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Re: Potential August topups

#243434

Postby moorfield » August 10th, 2019, 10:45 pm

Arborbridge wrote:




I've removed those I would not select, based on my own criteria:

PSN, IMB - above benchmark yield ceiling (2*CTY, ~9.2%)

SSE, UU. - utlities, excluded (at least) until we've seen the riddance of Messrs Corbyn & McDonnell

IGG, CSN - not FTSE100

BT.A, SBRY - can't demonstrate 5 years of dividend growth

That leaves these four. I've floated an idea here previously of selecting starting from lowest (above benchmark) to highest yield, rather than highest to lowest yield - so my first choice would be BLND.

Alaric
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Re: Potential August topups

#243444

Postby Alaric » August 10th, 2019, 11:06 pm

moorfield wrote:
That leaves these four. I've floated an idea here previously of selecting starting from lowest (above benchmark) to highest yield, rather than highest to lowest yield - so my first choice would be BLND.


It has drifted into high yield territory because the price has fallen. An investment in it is taking a punt on recovery.

One year total return performance -20%, three year -4,74%, five year -1.58%

http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stock ... E%24%24ALL

It might come good.

Price as of Friday's close 484.50
Price a year ago 643.20
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Arborbridge
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Re: Potential August topups

#243470

Postby Arborbridge » August 11th, 2019, 7:18 am

moorfield wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:




I've removed those I would not select, based on my own criteria:

PSN, IMB - above benchmark yield ceiling (2*CTY, ~9.2%)

SSE, UU. - utlities, excluded (at least) until we've seen the riddance of Messrs Corbyn & McDonnell

IGG, CSN - not FTSE100

BT.A, SBRY - can't demonstrate 5 years of dividend growth

That leaves these four. I've floated an idea here previously of selecting starting from lowest (above benchmark) to highest yield, rather than highest to lowest yield - so my first choice would be BLND.


This is an interesting approach with some unusual ideas - still more or less HYP thinking ;) I can see that your final selection idea is further to control risk by choosing the lowest of the highest, so to speak - and that idea does have some merit - after all it's Luni red zone thinking in another guise. I've previously shied away from a yield I think suspiciously high myself, as have others here I'm pretty sure. I am never sure if that is a bout of common sense in action, or a failure of courage!

I do have a liking for BLND, but it might well be preferred some time later rather than now. Personally, I couldn't exclude IGG or CSN for the reason you give but that's fair enough.

At present, I am still going with Aviva, since SLA isn't in this particular account with the cheap dealing day tomorrow. But I have until tonight to cancel or alter. There's still time to go completely bonkers and buy more TESCO :shock:

These top up threads have been criticised for being rather boring, but this one has bought out some useful discussion showing how different folk make decisions.

Arb.

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Re: Potential August topups

#243480

Postby moorfield » August 11th, 2019, 8:25 am

Arborbridge wrote:This is an interesting approach with some unusual ideas - still more or less HYP thinking ;)


Thankyou. I'd say everyone's approach on here is more or less HYP thinking, wouldn't you? ;)

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Re: Potential August topups

#243487

Postby Gengulphus » August 11th, 2019, 9:20 am

pyad wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:...Lloyds I'll have a think about. It has strong cover, but I've already sunk a big chunk over the years - 4.25% of capital - with little reward...

We've had this discussion before but I fail to see why the proportion of cost that you have already sunk into Lloyds, or any share, should play any part in a top-up decision. I see no logic to this view and it looks like a superstition in that you appear to regard such a share as jinxed, despite it ticking all your HYP top-up boxes.

Alaric wrote:
pyad wrote: I see no logic to this view

It's quite common to impose limits on the percentage by market value, dividend income or both in any one stock. ...

Pyad was replying to Arborbridge's comment saying he would think about Lloyds' percentage by original purchase cost. That's neither imposing a limit nor about its percentage by market value, dividend income or both. And while editing a quote down for brevity is good, editing one down to remove its context and then replying as though it was about something else just ends up wasting the time of every reader who actually checks up on quotes and sowing confusion in the minds of those who don't - please don't do it!

Alaric wrote:... If, despite filters, previous buying decisions have gone badly, maybe there's an unknown factor which the decision making process is ignoring.

Perhaps. Or perhaps there was such a factor but you now believe you've identified it and you're now taking it into account, know it no longer applies or both. Or perhaps it was just due to the vagaries of the market - shares do go in and out of fashion, often as an overreaction to something that is worth considering but not worth regarding as making the share (or often its sector) taboo.

So IMHO definitely worth having a think about which of those applies, but not worth imposing a limit on percentage of original purchase cost, just using it as an alert that it would be worth reviewing past purchase decisions. In my case, for instance, my Lloyds holding is currently about 50% down on its purchase cost, but that's a mixture of widely-varying returns on purchases at different times in the past. Ones from 2003-2007 show really large losses - the events in 2008 and 2009 were clearly a major factor in that and they at least are played out (which isn't to say that there's nothing similar still lurking in the company, of course...) and I think it's unquestionably the case that investors have generally treated banks and other financials with much more scepticism since then, i.e. that they're much less in fashion. More recent purchases are much more averagish. Overall, I think enough of the reasons for my past poor results have been discovered and dealt with, either by me or the regulators, that I would regard a limit on original purchase cost as inappropriate in the case of Lloyds. But as an alert that if I haven't done that sort of thinking about possible problems in my selection process, I ought to, it's fine.

Gengulphus

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Re: Potential August topups

#243497

Postby Gengulphus » August 11th, 2019, 9:50 am

monabri wrote:Lloyds - Possible candidate #3 but the offering (yield) is reducing now.

Eh? How do you make that out?

Its recently-announced interim dividend is up and its price has been falling since the interim results, so the yield on offer has been rising, not falling.

It's announced a change in the intended dividend payment schedule starting next year, but that actually brings dividend payments forward slightly on average - currently it pays about 33% of the dividends for a year as an interim in September and 67% as a final in May of the following year, it intends to change to paying about 40% of them split equally between quarterly payments in June and September and 60% of them split unequally between a quarterly payment in December and a final in May of the following year. So a small percentage of the total has been moved forward from the second half to the first half, and within each half, some of the payment has been moved forward into an earlier quarterly payment.

So I don't see any actual bad news about the Lloyds dividend payments. There will probably be something that has spooked the market a bit about the company and its dividend prospects in the interim results (and I may even have seen and forgotten it!) but as far as I can see it's not the yield on offer.

Gengulphus

monabri
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Re: Potential August topups

#243526

Postby monabri » August 11th, 2019, 11:45 am

Gengulphus wrote:
monabri wrote:Lloyds - Possible candidate #3 but the offering (yield) is reducing now.

Eh? How do you make that out?
Gengulphus


Well spotted! TBH I've got no idea why I wrote that other than I was thinking that PPI claims would be stopping/reducing at the end of the month. It was a senior moment....

(p.s. I made a Lloyd's top up last week as well :oops: )

Arborbridge
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Re: Potential August topups

#243536

Postby Arborbridge » August 11th, 2019, 12:21 pm

After much pickering, here is my final decision:-

I've set buys for tomorrow which will bring both Aviva and Lloyds up to median strength. This this the maximum I can do at present within that particular account, and the result should satisfy all my usual self-imposed limits. SLA, BT and PSN will plead their cases another day.

I'll post the result when it happens, to round off this thread.

Arb.

idpickering
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Re: Potential August topups

#243549

Postby idpickering » August 11th, 2019, 1:12 pm

Arborbridge wrote:After much pickering, here is my final decision:-

I've set buys for tomorrow which will bring both Aviva and Lloyds up to median strength. This this the maximum I can do at present within that particular account, and the result should satisfy all my usual self-imposed limits. SLA, BT and PSN will plead their cases another day.

I'll post the result when it happens, to round off this thread.

Arb.


Thanks for the update Arb, and initiating this interesting thread, and the name check too :D Good luck with your purchases.

Ian.

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Re: Potential August topups

#243558

Postby Steveam » August 11th, 2019, 2:58 pm

Thx for the comments above. It just happens that I'll be making top-ups tomorrow and, unless something dramatic happens overnight, I'll be topping-up South32 and Legal & General in the High Yield element of my basket. I don't use the spreadsheet but look at the weightings of my (very) stable portfolio. I've added a new dimension to my thinking recently which is that I like US$ dividends (I have a view regarding the UK£ after Brexit and a possibility of the break-up of the Union).

Best wishes,

Steve

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Re: Potential August topups

#243585

Postby kempiejon » August 11th, 2019, 5:34 pm

Arborbridge wrote:After much pickering, here is my final decision:-

I've set buys for tomorrow which will bring both Aviva and Lloyds up to median strength. This this the maximum I can do at present within that particular account, and the result should satisfy all my usual self-imposed limits. SLA, BT and PSN will plead their cases another day.

I'll post the result when it happens, to round off this thread.

Arb.


Arb, your choice is made, both good enough as they say. I hold them and I've just checked and see Aviva is under weight I my HYP and 8.2% yield makes me inclined to see how a top up in my portfolio would look so ta for that. I use cover as one of my safety factors and usually prefer >1.5 times, utes get flexibility as do REITs, SLA falls short and I think both SLA and BT have questionable prospect for increasing dividends from company commentary I'd be inclined to rule them out. You're adding at about 8% yield, that looks to me like good use of capital but PSN (validly excluded on concentration grounds) would buy one 12%.

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Re: Potential August topups

#244135

Postby Arborbridge » August 14th, 2019, 7:24 am

As threatened, I publish below my HYP after Monday's top up for August, ranked in the new topup order. Lloyds and Aviva are now 12th and 6th in that order, so may still be in the truncated top up list (the first 12 companies) from which I will choose next time. I note that the previous topups of these two were in August last year, so it seems like a regular event!
I draw your attention to the last share on the list - Diageo - which now offers only 2% and is 1.62x median weight. It's possible that it may receive a trimming as some stage, though I'd be reluctant to pull the trigger. Its latest trim was in 2011.



Arb.

idpickering
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Re: Potential August topups

#244141

Postby idpickering » August 14th, 2019, 7:43 am

Arborbridge wrote:I draw your attention to the last share on the list - Diageo - which now offers only 2% and is 1.62x median weight. It's possible that it may receive a trimming as some stage, though I'd be reluctant to pull the trigger. Its latest trim was in 2011.

Arb.



Thanks for putting up your new HYP Arb. As for Diageo, (which I hold) if I were you, I'd just let it be.

Ian.

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Re: Potential August topups

#244144

Postby Arborbridge » August 14th, 2019, 7:46 am

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I draw your attention to the last share on the list - Diageo - which now offers only 2% and is 1.62x median weight. It's possible that it may receive a trimming as some stage, though I'd be reluctant to pull the trigger. Its latest trim was in 2011.

Arb.



Thanks for putting up your new HYP Arb. As for Diageo, (which I hold) if I were you, I'd just let it be.

Ian.


I'm following TJH's method in my own rather "fuzzy" way, so I need to ask myself questions about these situations as they arise.

Arb.

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Re: Potential August topups

#244148

Postby idpickering » August 14th, 2019, 7:54 am

Arborbridge wrote:
I'm following TJH's method in my own rather "fuzzy" way, so I need to ask myself questions about these situations as they arise.

Arb.


Cheers Arb. For me my newish stance is to be more hands-off and chilled about my HYP, but one never can say never fiddle I guess. We're only human after all.

Ian.

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Re: Potential August topups

#244281

Postby monabri » August 14th, 2019, 3:54 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
The sweetshop is well and truly open with too many delights available.

Arb.


HSBA at 7 % and LGEN at 7.25% for example. Both XD tomorrow.

( based on dividenddata and current share price on the LSE - 15 minutes )

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... &order=#AV.

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Re: Potential August topups

#244509

Postby Arborbridge » August 15th, 2019, 12:28 pm

monabri wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
The sweetshop is well and truly open with too many delights available.

Arb.


HSBA at 7 % and LGEN at 7.25% for example. Both XD tomorrow.

( based on dividenddata and current share price on the LSE - 15 minutes )

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... &order=#AV.


One can catch a falling LGEN knife today!


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