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Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

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idpickering
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Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244134

Postby idpickering » August 14th, 2019, 7:17 am

Comment from David Stevens, Group Chief Executive Officer
If it’s a can’t-put-down, read-in-one-go page-turner that you’re after, then I’m afraid our half-year results don’t fit the bill. Frankly, they are a bit dull. Turnover up mid-single digits, profit up low-single digits. Hardly “hold the front page”.
However, for dedicated aficionados who look behind the headlines, there’s some reward for reading on. Profit growth, even if modest, is more exciting considering the £33 million Ogden headwind. Low growth in UK Motor policy count reflects a consciously reduced competitiveness, as we price rationally in the face of any rising claims costs across the market as a whole.
And potentially lost amidst the worthy tome that is the UK, there’s the racier continental novella that is the European insurance business which has delivered another profitable half year whilst adding a record 209,000 customers over the last year (and 125,000 over the last six months alone).


And later;

Dividend
The Board has declared an interim dividend of 63.0 pence, representing a normal dividend of 41.8 pence per share and a special dividend of 21.2 pence per share. The dividend will be paid on 4 October 2019. The ex-dividend date is 5 September 2019 and the record date is 6 September 2019.


https://admiralgroup.co.uk/sites/defaul ... ts-rns.pdf

I hold, and despite the CEO's comment above, I'm ok with dull. Just what I want in my HYP shares. :)

Ian.

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244137

Postby Dod101 » August 14th, 2019, 7:26 am

Thanks Ian. That represents a dividend increase of 5% over the same period last year. Good enough but only by paying out 100% of EPS per share. As I keep saying I think their best days are behind them but never mind the European business is beginning to pick up.

A down beat set of results to me and not really what I want but what I am getting! A classic UK high yielder I am afraid.

Dod

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244140

Postby idpickering » August 14th, 2019, 7:37 am

Dod101 wrote:Thanks Ian. That represents a dividend increase of 5% over the same period last year. Good enough but only by paying out 100% of EPS per share. As I keep saying I think their best days are behind them but never mind the European business is beginning to pick up.

A down beat set of results to me and not really what I want but what I am getting! A classic UK high yielder I am afraid.

Dod


Cheers for your input Dod. I do get where you're coming from, but I'm ok with down beat, and hopefully no surprises in the future. I have a 'full' holding so am unlikely to top up, but am happy to continue to hold.

Ian.

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244142

Postby Arborbridge » August 14th, 2019, 7:43 am

Dod101 wrote:Thanks Ian. That represents a dividend increase of 5% over the same period last year. Good enough but only by paying out 100% of EPS per share. As I keep saying I think their best days are behind them but never mind the European business is beginning to pick up.

A down beat set of results to me and not really what I want but what I am getting! A classic UK high yielder I am afraid.

Dod


Referring to the topup list I've just posted, ADM is the 34th share, which suggest it has been pretty successful. I'm not disputing that the rate of growth has slowed down - frankly, I've never ever believed that a 10% growth for any company is sustainable on philosophical grounds - but a 4.x% growth is fine by me. Any share producing above RPI dividend growth, a 5.9% yield and a TR of 17% since I bought in, is a success.
As for the future, none of us can tell, but let's not be too gloomy about this success story 8-)

An if you feel a "classic UK high yielder" doesn't give you what you want, why are you interested in high yielders?

Arb.

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244150

Postby idpickering » August 14th, 2019, 8:06 am

Share up nearly 6% on market opening, which is reassuring. The results have obviously been well received. I’m a happy holder, although share price movements aren’t the issue here I know, before someone points that out.

Ian.

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244153

Postby Dod101 » August 14th, 2019, 8:23 am

Arborbridge wrote:[
Referring to the topup list I've just posted, ADM is the 34th share, which suggest it has been pretty successful. I'm not disputing that the rate of growth has slowed down - frankly, I've never ever believed that a 10% growth for any company is sustainable on philosophical grounds - but a 4.x% growth is fine by me. Any share producing above RPI dividend growth, a 5.9% yield and a TR of 17% since I bought in, is a success.
As for the future, none of us can tell, but let's not be too gloomy about this success story 8-)

An if you feel a "classic UK high yielder" doesn't give you what you want, why are you interested in high yielders?


When I said a classic UK high yielder, what I meant was that there is very little growth in the share price despite a better dividend. As I said bear in mind that dividend growth is coming from paying out 100% of the EPS, so they must be confident about the future. These results have been impacted by the reduced discount rate on outstanding claims which will hopefully be a one off effect.

I think you know very well why I am interested in high yielders; to get the basic income I need of course.

Dod

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244170

Postby Arborbridge » August 14th, 2019, 9:52 am

Dod101 wrote:When I said a classic UK high yielder, what I meant was that there is very little growth in the share price despite a better dividend. As I said bear in mind that dividend growth is coming from paying out 100% of the EPS, so they must be confident about the future. These results have been impacted by the reduced discount rate on outstanding claims which will hopefully be a one off effect.

I think you know very well why I am interested in high yielders; to get the basic income I need of course.

Dod


"what I meant was that there is very little growth in the share price despite a better dividend."

I misunderstood - so the comment was really a sort of half compliment rather than derogatory :)

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244175

Postby Dod101 » August 14th, 2019, 10:24 am

Absolutely Arb. It is far from my worst of the high yielding performers. At least the share price has held more or less, unlike some. Everything now hangs on how well they can develop their European and US business.

Dod

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244196

Postby IanTHughes » August 14th, 2019, 11:28 am

idpickering wrote:
Dividend
The Board has declared an interim dividend of 63.0 pence, representing a normal dividend of 41.8 pence per share and a special dividend of 21.2 pence per share. The dividend will be paid on 4 October 2019. The ex-dividend date is 5 September 2019 and the record date is 6 September 2019.

https://admiralgroup.co.uk/sites/defaul ... ts-rns.pdf

Excellent news and thanks to idpickering for bringing it to our attention!

The recent annual dividend history growth of Admiral Group PLC (ADM) is as follows:

Year End    | Dividend  | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
31-Dec-19 * | 129.0000 | 7.97% | 5.56% | 8.42%

* - assuming the Final Dividend for the Year Ending 31 Dec 19 remains the same - if it is also increased by 5% so much the better!

I have held since December 2015, when it became an HYP candidate in my view - XIRR = 14.23% - what more can one want from an HYP selection?


Ian

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244209

Postby IanTHughes » August 14th, 2019, 12:18 pm

Dod101 wrote:When I said a classic UK high yielder, what I meant was that there is very little growth in the share price despite a better dividend.

Well, all I can say is, the price of Admiral Group PLC (ADM) marches ever onwards:

Date      | Price      | Increase | Annual Increase
14-Aug-19 | 2,119.0000 | 60.29% | 9.90%
17-Aug-14 | 1,322.0000 | |

I do know that you may have exacting criteria, no doubt more exacting than mine, but what on earth is wrong with this record, allied as it is with the exemplary record for the dividend growth?


Ian

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244210

Postby Dod101 » August 14th, 2019, 12:31 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Dod101 wrote:When I said a classic UK high yielder, what I meant was that there is very little growth in the share price despite a better dividend.

Well, all I can say is, the price of Admiral Group PLC (ADM) marches ever onwards:

Date      | Price      | Increase | Annual Increase
14-Aug-19 | 2,119.0000 | 60.29% | 9.90%
17-Aug-14 | 1,322.0000 | |

I do know that you may have exacting criteria, no doubt more exacting than mine, but what on earth is wrong with this record, allied as it is with the exemplary record for the dividend growth?


The share price growth is all in the past and at least for the last three years or so, there has been hardly any movement in the price. That certainly beats the tobaccos mind you, but that is what I meant by a classic high yielder.

Dod

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244216

Postby IanTHughes » August 14th, 2019, 12:42 pm

Dod101 wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
Dod101 wrote:When I said a classic UK high yielder, what I meant was that there is very little growth in the share price despite a better dividend.

Well, all I can say is, the price of Admiral Group PLC (ADM) marches ever onwards:

Date      | Price      | Increase | Annual Increase
14-Aug-19 | 2,119.0000 | 60.29% | 9.90%
17-Aug-14 | 1,322.0000 | |

I do know that you may have exacting criteria, no doubt more exacting than mine, but what on earth is wrong with this record, allied as it is with the exemplary record for the dividend growth?

The share price growth is all in the past and at least for the last three years or so, there has been hardly any movement in the price.

So, for ADM, you look primarily at the last three years but for Aviva PLC (AV), you insist on 10 years, or more?

viewtopic.php?p=242928#p242928
Dod101 wrote: For a short term HYPer, the evidence of the last five years is fine, but if you look at the history of Aviva and the nature of the company over the longer term it is pretty poor.

You confuse me!


Ian
Last edited by IanTHughes on August 14th, 2019, 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244217

Postby Arborbridge » August 14th, 2019, 12:46 pm

Dod101 wrote:
The share price growth is all in the past and at least for the last three years or so, there has been hardly any movement in the price. That certainly beats the tobaccos mind you, but that is what I meant by a classic high yielder.

Dod


Admiral has been pretty much beyond reproach so I don't know why you are labouring this point Dod. Everything is in the past, and we don't know the future ;)

As a point of information, I've just put a linear regression line through the share price change since Jan 2017 and it's near enough 5% a year - not hardly any movement. Previous to that, since 2012 it was admittedly higher - but nothing is forever. Naturally, those are average rises (being linear regression) and the individual might have bought in a bump.

Added to that, the dividends have been rising in a more than satisfactory way, and whilst I can understand you might fear for the future, this share seems like one which is able to cope and deliver - despite there having been obstacles which people flagged up a year or two ago.

I'd say: enjoy it while you can and don't be so downbeat.

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244226

Postby Dod101 » August 14th, 2019, 1:15 pm

I am not labouring any point. In fact I would have left the thread as was but I was trying to be helpful in responding to ITH.

When I bought into Admiral (maybe 4/5 years ago) I remember going through the Annual Report and seeing their slightly unusual arrangements for their insurance contracts and being quite impressed. But two things struck me. One is that they need to keep Munichre on side since they are facilitating some very attractive reinsurance arrangements for them, and the other is that their expansion in the UK motor car market was unlikely to be anything like as good in the future as it had been. That has proved to be the case. They seem to be making some headway in Europe which is good, but still have some way to go in the US.

But I am not labouring any point and I do not mind if no one pays any attention to what I write. I will say no more.

Dod

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244243

Postby IanTHughes » August 14th, 2019, 1:47 pm

Dod101 wrote:I am not labouring any point. In fact I would have left the thread as was but I was trying to be helpful in responding to ITH.

I for one thank you for that!

Dod101 wrote:When I bought into Admiral (maybe 4/5 years ago) I remember going through the Annual Report and seeing their slightly unusual arrangements for their insurance contracts and being quite impressed. But two things struck me. One is that they need to keep Munichre on side since they are facilitating some very attractive reinsurance arrangements for them, and the other is that their expansion in the UK motor car market was unlikely to be anything like as good in the future as it had been. That has proved to be the case. They seem to be making some headway in Europe which is good, but still have some way to go in the US.

But I am not labouring any point and I do not mind if no one pays any attention top what I write. I will say no more.

Labouring the point? Well, in my opinion, yes you are most definitely!

Ian

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244284

Postby tjh290633 » August 14th, 2019, 3:58 pm

Just looking at the dividend record:

Year to   Div      Change
2009 57.50
2010 68.10 18.43%
2011 75.60 11.01%
2012 90.60 19.84%
2013 99.50 9.82%
2014 98.40 -1.11%
2015 114.40 16.26%
2016 114.40 0.00%
2017 114.00 -0.35%
2018 126.00 10.53%

A bit lumpy with the increases.

I first bought in 2014 at 1509p, with a starting yield of 6.63%

TJH

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244288

Postby Alaric » August 14th, 2019, 4:05 pm

Just some minimal research, what are comparable Companies? Direct Line presumably and Aviva up to a point. I gather it only retains about 30% of the insurance premium, reinsuring the rest. That makes it less vulnerable to underwriting loss, but equally foregoes underwriting profit. Are the any reasonably sized quoted general insurance brokers, given that reinsuring much of its business makes it more of a broker than some of its competitors?

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244293

Postby tjh290633 » August 14th, 2019, 4:21 pm

Alaric wrote: Are the any reasonably sized quoted general insurance brokers, given that reinsuring much of its business makes it more of a broker than some of its competitors?


Hiscox, perhaps? I haven't studied them. See https://www.hiscoxgroup.com/investors

TJH

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244312

Postby Dod101 » August 14th, 2019, 5:08 pm

Alaric wrote:Just some minimal research, what are comparable Companies? Direct Line presumably and Aviva up to a point. I gather it only retains about 30% of the insurance premium, reinsuring the rest. That makes it less vulnerable to underwriting loss, but equally foregoes underwriting profit. Are the any reasonably sized quoted general insurance brokers, given that reinsuring much of its business makes it more of a broker than some of its competitors?


At the risk of being accused of labouring the point, I will respond. It is after all quite a different point. As a matter of fact, no established insurer needs to reinsure damage to motor vehicles. The maximum exposure is no more than say £50,000 I would have thought. In underwriting terms that is small beer. They do have to reinsure the liability side but that is not or at least was not a very expensive business. When they established Admiral, I imagine that the founders sat down and thought carefully about how to make the best and steady profit. What they did was decided to coinsure and reinsure their portfolio. They got Munichre on side as the main reinsurer and they of course paid significant reinsurance commission to Admiral (risk free) They also pay profit commission if the results are good of course. Not only that, but they allow Admiral to take back the reinsurance (commutation as it is called in the Accounts)) once the underwriting results are fairly clear (Maybe two or three years down the line) There is obviously an adjustment for any profit commission paid but this has the effect of returning some premiums back to Admiral and pretty well guarantees Admiral an additional underwriting profit.

Munichre are still a 10% shareholder as well as a very helpful reinsurer.

The result is that much of Admiral's risk is removed and replaced with risk free commissions of one sort or another. Good for them, but to a dyed in the wool traditional insurer this beyond the pale. It works if you have a good and secure reinsurer on side. Munichre is that.

Dod

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Re: Admiral Group plc results for the six months ended 30 June 2019

#244340

Postby IanTHughes » August 14th, 2019, 7:03 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Alaric wrote:Just some minimal research, what are comparable Companies? Direct Line presumably and Aviva up to a point. I gather it only retains about 30% of the insurance premium, reinsuring the rest. That makes it less vulnerable to underwriting loss, but equally foregoes underwriting profit. Are the any reasonably sized quoted general insurance brokers, given that reinsuring much of its business makes it more of a broker than some of its competitors?

At the risk of being accused of labouring the point, I will respond. It is after all quite a different point. As a matter of fact, no established insurer needs to reinsure damage to motor vehicles. The maximum exposure is no more than say £50,000 I would have thought. In underwriting terms that is small beer. They do have to reinsure the liability side but that is not or at least was not a very expensive business. When they established Admiral, I imagine that the founders sat down and thought carefully about how to make the best and steady profit. What they did was decided to coinsure and reinsure their portfolio. They got Munichre on side as the main reinsurer and they of course paid significant reinsurance commission to Admiral (risk free) They also pay profit commission if the results are good of course. Not only that, but they allow Admiral to take back the reinsurance (commutation as it is called in the Accounts)) once the underwriting results are fairly clear (Maybe two or three years down the line) There is obviously an adjustment for any profit commission paid but this has the effect of returning some premiums back to Admiral and pretty well guarantees Admiral an additional underwriting profit.

Munichre are still a 10% shareholder as well as a very helpful reinsurer.

The result is that much of Admiral's risk is removed and replaced with risk free commissions of one sort or another. Good for them, but to a dyed in the wool traditional insurer this beyond the pale. It works if you have a good and secure reinsurer on side. Munichre is that.

So, from an HYP point of view mind, does that mean you now believe the recent dividend return from Admiral Group PLC (ADM):

ianthughes wrote:
Year End    | Dividend  | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years
31-Dec-19 * | 129.0000 | 7.97% | 5.56% | 8.42%

* - assuming the Final Dividend for the Year Ending 31 Dec 19 remains the same - if it is also increased by 5% so much the better!

has been good?


Ian


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