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Greene King - SOLD!

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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SalvorHardin
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245519

Postby SalvorHardin » August 19th, 2019, 5:11 pm

spiderbill wrote:Interesting that Marstons have just risen 8.9% as well! Seems a tad optimistic - are people buying hoping they'll be bought out too? :?
Or maybe hoping they'll have less competition if the new owners concentrate on the real estate rather than the brewing.

This invariably happens whenever there is a bid. Lots of investors will be looking to reinvest the proceeds in companies in the same sector, so these companies' share prices get marked up.

As soon as I heard about the Greene King bid I texted a friend who holds Greene King. Ten minutes later I got a reply; they had just bought some Marstons (still holding Greene King for a bit).

idpickering
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245521

Postby idpickering » August 19th, 2019, 5:19 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
idpickering wrote:I only bought into GNK last Oct and Nov, so this has come as a surprise I don't mind admitting. I'm up 74% in 10 months! Wish my other HYP shares were that popular. lol. What are other holders here plans regarding this surprising event?

Ian.


What's interesting is that we have few doomsters and naysayers getting their teeth into GNK a year or so back explaining that it was probably doomed. Well, maybe it is doomed, but for a different reason. One of those occasions when one did well to ignore those critics, the percentage of shorting and the falling share price, and just top up.

Arb


Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this Arb. I was aware of the doomsters and naysayers views when I bought back into them. I had held them before but I had to sell a few years ago to cover an unexpected event. When I bought in again, the figures stacked up ok, so pulled the trigger, luckily it seems. Sad to lose them though. I can feel a bit of Pickering coming on. :D

Ian.

MDW1954
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245523

Postby MDW1954 » August 19th, 2019, 5:24 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, what a tremendous pity. This is one of my longest term shares, and I have no wish to lose it.
I know some people will relish the thought of taking a profit and moving on, but I am not in his for a fast buck, but for long term income. So sell a good beer company to a property developer and all he can see is the property. Come back Rooney! All those years building up the company just to see it chucked away.

Now the problem of what to do with the readies if this goes through.


I'm tempted to vote against it. I'd sooner have the shares, and the shareholder discounts.

I bet I'm in a minority, though. Another fine British company sold to foreigners on the cheap, even while British investors were avoiding the shares in droves, spouting all the usual nonsense about brewing and retail and beer going out of fashion etc etc.

Well, it passed my "smell test" many years ago.

MDW1954

idpickering
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245527

Postby idpickering » August 19th, 2019, 5:27 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
spiderbill wrote:Interesting that Marstons have just risen 8.9% as well! Seems a tad optimistic - are people buying hoping they'll be bought out too? :?
Or maybe hoping they'll have less competition if the new owners concentrate on the real estate rather than the brewing.

This invariably happens whenever there is a bid. Lots of investors will be looking to reinvest the proceeds in companies in the same sector, so these companies' share prices get marked up.

As soon as I heard about the Greene King bid I texted a friend who holds Greene King. Ten minutes later I got a reply; they had just bought some Marstons (still holding Greene King for a bit).


I was intending to top up my MARS holdings before the end of the year anyway. Just sooner than I'd planned now it seems. The fact that MARS are a bit of a tiddler does worry me a bit though, so don't want to be to over exposed to them.

Ian.

Breelander
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245533

Postby Breelander » August 19th, 2019, 5:55 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:Legally you are correct but it has only happened in the past after the XD date as far as I am aware where a company has got into massive financial difficulties and been told by their bankers not to pay.



There was another case (or was this the one you were thinking of?). BP cancelled one well after the XD date (in fact, less than a week before the payment date) in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

BP said it would cancel the previously declared first-quarter dividend scheduled for payment on June 21
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-d ... JL20100616

scrumpyjack
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245540

Postby scrumpyjack » August 19th, 2019, 6:09 pm

The one I was thinking of was near the turn of the century but the BP one was probably as they felt the US Gov had a gun to their head. I do not recall any occasion it has happened in a normal takeover situation after the XD date, but there may be a case I have not heard of. I can't see how the board could possibly justify it in the GNK case as people would have been buying/selling its shares cum a div that would never be paid. You would need a fairly compelling reason to cancel the divi.

moorfield
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245545

Postby moorfield » August 19th, 2019, 6:18 pm

monabri wrote:Perhaps the UK market is indeed cheap....lots of delicious things to be snapped up. I wonder what might be next?


I'm sure it won't be the only one while the pound is cheap ...

I wonder if anyone's interested in CNA. :shock:

Arborbridge
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245549

Postby Arborbridge » August 19th, 2019, 6:39 pm

MDW1954 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, what a tremendous pity. This is one of my longest term shares, and I have no wish to lose it.
I know some people will relish the thought of taking a profit and moving on, but I am not in his for a fast buck, but for long term income. So sell a good beer company to a property developer and all he can see is the property. Come back Rooney! All those years building up the company just to see it chucked away.

Now the problem of what to do with the readies if this goes through.


I'm tempted to vote against it. I'd sooner have the shares, and the shareholder discounts.

I bet I'm in a minority, though. Another fine British company sold to foreigners on the cheap, even while British investors were avoiding the shares in droves, spouting all the usual nonsense about brewing and retail and beer going out of fashion etc etc.

Well, it passed my "smell test" many years ago.

MDW1954


Voting against - I did that once. ending up as a "dissenting shareholder". All that happened was that it took longer to get the eventual payout, for some reason I can't rememeber.

Arb.

monabri
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245556

Postby monabri » August 19th, 2019, 7:04 pm

moorfield wrote:
monabri wrote:Perhaps the UK market is indeed cheap....lots of delicious things to be snapped up. I wonder what might be next?


I'm sure it won't be the only one while the pound is cheap ...

I wonder if anyone's interested in CNA. :shock:


delicious?...more of a sour taste!

Itsallaguess
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245563

Postby Itsallaguess » August 19th, 2019, 7:26 pm

mike wrote:
I have sinned and sold down a good proportion.

GNK were one of those on my worry list because of the B word. The increase in price had put GNK in 4th place capital wise in my portfolio, behind 2 ITs and ULVR, and just in front of RDSB.

I'll have a think overnight on the rest.


These are nice problems to have though sometimes, aren't they?

I've posted my thoughts on this bid over on the High Yield Shares & Strategies board - https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=19106

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Dod101
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245568

Postby Dod101 » August 19th, 2019, 7:48 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, what a tremendous pity. This is one of my longest term shares, and I have no wish to lose it.
I know some people will relish the thought of taking a profit and moving on, but I am not in his for a fast buck, but for long term income. So sell a good beer company to a property developer and all he can see is the property. Come back Rooney! All those years building up the company just to see it chucked away.

Now the problem of what to do with the readies if this goes through.


For goodness' sake. A 50% increase overnight for a company that was not that profitable or popular? Take the money and run. Then think abut investing it.

Dod

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245570

Postby monabri » August 19th, 2019, 8:05 pm


Arborbridge
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245574

Postby Arborbridge » August 19th, 2019, 8:23 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, what a tremendous pity. This is one of my longest term shares, and I have no wish to lose it.
I know some people will relish the thought of taking a profit and moving on, but I am not in his for a fast buck, but for long term income. So sell a good beer company to a property developer and all he can see is the property. Come back Rooney! All those years building up the company just to see it chucked away.

Now the problem of what to do with the readies if this goes through.


For goodness' sake. A 50% increase overnight for a company that was not that profitable or popular? Take the money and run. Then think abut investing it.

Dod


That's not a good attitude. And what a strange value judgement "not that profitable or popular" - who on earth are you to say? just because it isn't a share that had you personal approval don't condemn it. It's been a really steady and successful company and a good share to own for me since the 90's, and if it weren't "popular" it's price would have collapsed years ago - which it never did.

No HYPer is in for a fast buck, and no HYPer needs the problem of finding a new share as excellent as Greene King to replace it. You recently made the point that you think the "pool" is drying up, yet here you are in effect saying good riddance to a good member of that pool - it's supported my pension income to the tune of thousands in the past few years, and would have carried on doing so, weith just under 3% of my income contribution.

And finally, that a good profitable pub group which has successfully negotiate all the ups and downs of the stress which pubs have been under since the "beer orders" closed many, should fall to a predatorial bidder outside the UK when it could be profiting us inside the UK is not to be celebrated.

Arb.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245581

Postby scrumpyjack » August 19th, 2019, 8:45 pm

Hi Arb.

I generally applaud taking a long term view, which I have certainly taken with Greene King. I’ve held them for about 20 years and watched years of steady reliable progress. But it has had its ups and downs – doing a large share buyback at about £10 and then a couple of years later a large rights issue at 270p. I ended up having a very large holding partly because I took up the rights issue in full, not wanting to be diluted.

But everything changes eventually and for pubs things have got pretty difficult. It has been an increasing struggle for Greene King to stop profits sliding. There is little scope for increases in future as far as I can see.

In this case I say don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. There are plenty of solid British companies out there, seemingly modestly priced. Take the premium (and it is certainly a premium price in this climate, and the board evidently feel that too) and reinvest in one of them.

IanTHughes
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245591

Postby IanTHughes » August 19th, 2019, 9:14 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, what a tremendous pity. This is one of my longest term shares, and I have no wish to lose it.
I know some people will relish the thought of taking a profit and moving on, but I am not in his for a fast buck, but for long term income. So sell a good beer company to a property developer and all he can see is the property. Come back Rooney! All those years building up the company just to see it chucked away.

Now the problem of what to do with the readies if this goes through.

You think you have problems? As well as re-investing the proceeds from this takeover in my own HYP, I will have to find a replacement for the two virtual HYP's I am monitoring! :D

Oh well


Ian

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245598

Postby MDW1954 » August 19th, 2019, 9:54 pm

monabri wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:
MDW1954


Good timing!

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/0 ... over-sold/


I wrote that on July 30th, and it went out as an email 'Collective' a couple of days later. TMF always waits a few weeks before re-publishing as an article on the main site. Hence today's publication -- pure coincidence.

But yes, a useful data point. UK investors don't want a share, but foreigners with a longer-term focus will pay 50% over the odds. They can't both be right. And my money is on the foreigners. So far this year, I've lost Dairy Crest, Cobham, and now Greene King.

MDW1954/ Malcolm Wheatley

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245604

Postby Dod101 » August 19th, 2019, 10:09 pm

Arborbridge wrote:That's not a good attitude. And what a strange value judgement "not that profitable or popular" - who on earth are you to say? just because it isn't a share that had you personal approval don't condemn it. It's been a really steady and successful company and a good share to own for me since the 90's, and if it weren't "popular" it's price would have collapsed years ago - which it never did.

No HYPer is in for a fast buck, and no HYPer needs the problem of finding a new share as excellent as Greene King to replace it. You recently made the point that you think the "pool" is drying up, yet here you are in effect saying good riddance to a good member of that pool - it's supported my pension income to the tune of thousands in the past few years, and would have carried on doing so, weith just under 3% of my income contribution.

And finally, that a good profitable pub group which has successfully negotiate all the ups and downs of the stress which pubs have been under since the "beer orders" closed many, should fall to a predatorial bidder outside the UK when it could be profiting us inside the UK is not to be celebrated.


O Dear! This is the second time today that Arb has taken exception to my posts. Maybe he will be on better form tomorrow. As has been said by scrumpyjack, Greene King has had its problems over the last few years otherwise the shorters would not have been in the picture. I doubt that GK is a notable exporter for the UK, and we could see this as a great boost for Brexit seeing that it is a big inward investment in what must be for the UK a non essential industry. As I said take the money and run! Good for you!

I could provide a few recommendations if you need them for future investment.

Dod

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245606

Postby Walrus101 » August 19th, 2019, 10:23 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:That's not a good attitude. And what a strange value judgement "not that profitable or popular" - who on earth are you to say? just because it isn't a share that had you personal approval don't condemn it. It's been a really steady and successful company and a good share to own for me since the 90's, and if it weren't "popular" it's price would have collapsed years ago - which it never did.

No HYPer is in for a fast buck, and no HYPer needs the problem of finding a new share as excellent as Greene King to replace it. You recently made the point that you think the "pool" is drying up, yet here you are in effect saying good riddance to a good member of that pool - it's supported my pension income to the tune of thousands in the past few years, and would have carried on doing so, weith just under 3% of my income contribution.

And finally, that a good profitable pub group which has successfully negotiate all the ups and downs of the stress which pubs have been under since the "beer orders" closed many, should fall to a predatorial bidder outside the UK when it could be profiting us inside the UK is not to be celebrated.


O Dear! This is the second time today that Arb has taken exception to my posts. Maybe he will be on better form tomorrow. As has been said by scrumpyjack, Greene King has had its problems over the last few years otherwise the shorters would not have been in the picture. I doubt that GK is a notable exporter for the UK, and we could see this as a great boost for Brexit seeing that it is a big inward investment in what must be for the UK a non essential industry. As I said take the money and run! Good for you!

I could provide a few recommendations if you need them for future investment.

Dod


Am all ears. Have been investing recent topups into NRR but the recent director sales have spooked me a touch.

Lloyds and Legal and General are both on my radar for top ups but would be interested in what you are looking at.

Ps I'm maxed out on Tobaccos

Dod101
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245610

Postby Dod101 » August 19th, 2019, 10:48 pm

Walrus101 wrote:Am all ears. Have been investing recent topups into NRR but the recent director sales have spooked me a touch.

Lloyds and Legal and General are both on my radar for top ups but would be interested in what you are looking at.

Ps I'm maxed out on Tobaccos


Hoist on my own petard!

Well I would not be adding to the tobaccos anyway. L & G, HSBC, Unilever, and I guess Shell (unless you are full with any of those already) have got to be on the radar of anyone interested in high yields. I know Unilever is not really high yield but good enough for me and I would add Diageo. UK based exporters are surely the way to go for the moment anyway. Do not chase yield but look at what the share will do in the future, especially if you do not need the income now (in the 'building' phase)

Nothing exciting there or very different I appreciate. Otherwise I am looking at overseas ITs, HFEL, Murray International and other ITs. Personally I struggle with a UK based HYP these days. Obviously you can buy Primary Health Properties and a few small niche property companies but apart from Segro, I would keep clear of the big ones and certainly no supermarkets or for that matter retail.

Sorry for being negative but that seems to me to be the way it is, at least outside of the speculative market.

Dod

Arborbridge
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245611

Postby Arborbridge » August 19th, 2019, 10:56 pm

Dod101 wrote:O Dear! This is the second time today that Arb has taken exception to my posts. Maybe he will be on better form tomorrow.


Hardly my fault if you say something that needs challenging And I thought that meant I was on good form today :lol:

As has been said by scrumpyjack, Greene King has had its problems over the last few years otherwise the shorters would not have been in the picture.


Shorters have been in and out of Greene King at various times for many years. Up to 12% or more at times and down to zero at others - that can't be taken as indication of a company in peril, just that traders profit from fashion. We are not thinking of anything remotely like Carillion here - and indeed this unwelcome take over proves it. This is nothing but an asset stripping venture, I would guess.

As I said take the money and run! Good for you!


It's right to be pragmatic - one doesn't have much choice - but that does not mean we should celebrate the virtual demise of a two hundred year old famous British company any more than one could ever defend the demise of Cadbury, Tate and Lyle and others.

I could provide a few recommendations if you need them for future investment.

Dod


You already have - and I have a couple of yours in my HYP, for which, thanks.

Arb.


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