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Greene King - SOLD!

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IanTHughes
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245669

Postby IanTHughes » August 20th, 2019, 9:33 am

Arborbridge wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:So for this takeover of Greene King PLC (GNK) I have decided to wait, for now at least!

My usual policy is to wait and let things grind through. As against that, one could sell now and get on with it (which I guess is Ian's philosophy), but in general I'm happy to wait and see.

Well to my mind "getting on with it" is not a terrible idea but, after my experience with KCOM, together with the knowledge that historically one bid not infrequently smokes out another higher bid, I will at least wait for a while. Maybe think about selling after the deal is approved but before proceeds are received, we shall see.

Interestingly, GNK's yield at the takeover price - 850p - is still 3.91%, not a bad deal!


Ian

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245670

Postby Gengulphus » August 20th, 2019, 9:33 am

Arborbridge wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, what a tremendous pity. This is one of my longest term shares, and I have no wish to lose it.
I know some people will relish the thought of taking a profit and moving on, but I am not in his for a fast buck, but for long term income. So sell a good beer company to a property developer and all he can see is the property. Come back Rooney! All those years building up the company just to see it chucked away.

Now the problem of what to do with the readies if this goes through.

I'm tempted to vote against it. I'd sooner have the shares, and the shareholder discounts.

I bet I'm in a minority, though. Another fine British company sold to foreigners on the cheap, even while British investors were avoiding the shares in droves, spouting all the usual nonsense about brewing and retail and beer going out of fashion etc etc.

Well, it passed my "smell test" many years ago.

Voting against - I did that once. ending up as a "dissenting shareholder". All that happened was that it took longer to get the eventual payout, for some reason I can't rememeber.

Almost certainly you're remembering a takeover done by a traditional takeover offer. Such a takeover depends on shareholders accepting the offer as individuals. If a sufficient number (*) of them accept, the offeror buys those shareholders' shares, but those who don't own the shares keep their shares - except that if the holders of 90% or more of the shares they're making the offer for accept, the offeror is able to compulsorily purchase the remaining shares - and it's during the compulsory purchase process that I've seen the term "dissenting shareholder" used. If you hold the shares as a certificate, you get sent an acceptance form, which you either complete and return to accept the offer, or basically ignore if you don't want to accept it. The latter is the closest you can get to "voting against" the offer, but it isn't a vote because:

(a) it's not an actual action, but a failure to act, and there will almost certainly be some shareholders who don't accept because they're actually unable to - e.g. someone who doesn't accept because they're in a coma can hardly be said to have "voted against";

(b) as such, it doesn't bind shareholders collectively, just individually. There are two sort-of-exceptions to this: firstly, nobody ends up selling to the offeror if they don't get enough acceptances, but that's because the offeror doesn't go through with it because their acceptance condition hasn't been met; secondly, everyone ends up selling if the offer gets to the compulsory-purchase stage, but that's because company law steps in - basically to tidy up loose ends caused by the fact that there will always be shareholders who cannot accept and those who aren't paying attention, even if there aren't any diehard non-sellers. So those outcomes are imposed by the offer's acceptance condition and company law saying that there are consequences of the shareholders' collective (non-)acceptances, not directly by those (non-)acceptances. And while one or other of those two sets of consequences usually ends up being the outcome, they don't always - sometimes the offeror ends up with the majority of the shares in issue, but with a substantial number of shares still held by minority shareholders.

That can get slightly altered in the case of shares held in a CREST account, in that the broker (in their role as your "CREST sponsor") might obtain your acceptance and pass it on to the company, or not obtain it and not pass anything on, rather than you providing it directly to the company. And in the most common case of shares held in a nominee account, the broker's nominee company is the legal owner and the only one who can accept - so the broker obtains the acceptances from the customers who own the shares and accepts the offer with regard to the correct number of shares. In both those cases, the broker might ask you to either accept or actively not accept the offer - but if they ask for the latter, it will be only for their internal purposes, and they'll only pass the acceptances on to the company, not the non-acceptances as well.

So replying to say that you're not accepting might be wanted by the broker, even though it isn't by the company - and that might come across as "voting against", or get transmuted into it over time in one's memory. But despite appearances/memory lapses, there simply is no such thing as "voting against" a traditional takeover offer.

Anyway, that won't happen here, unless the offeror has reserved the right to transform it into a traditional takeover offer (which is usual) and actually uses that right (which is not - I don't think I've ever seen it done). That's because this takeover is being done by a scheme of arrangement. It does involve a vote (or to be precise, two votes done very close together, one at a company meeting and one at a court meeting), the results of those votes are binding on all shareholders, and so there is such a thing as "voting against" a scheme-of-arrangement takeover. (But as a warning to those holding in nominee accounts, brokers are under no legal/regulatory obligation to tell their nominee clients that such a vote is going to happen, and as a result, some do and some don't. So if you do want to vote, you might have to actively initiate the process with your broker, not just wait for them to tell you about it and then respond - "might" because it's broker-dependent.)

I'm also tempted to vote against it, basically for the same reasons as MDW1954 (though it's ages since I last used a shareholder voucher - they can't be used with any other discount, and when I've eaten in Greene King pubs recently, there have been better discounts available...). The holding has done its job in my HYP nicely since my first purchase in February 2003 and much of the premium on this offer seems to me to be undoing an unjustified discount, but the company has stagnated a bit over the last five years or so and that's long enough that the description "short-term blip" no longer really fits. So maybe the time has come to let it go... Anyway, no rush to decide either about voting or about letting my holding go - yesterday's announcement says (with my bold):

"It is expected that the Scheme Document, containing further information about the Acquisition and notices of the Court Meeting and Greene King General Meeting, together with the associated forms of proxy, will be posted to Greene King Shareholders within 28 days of this announcement (or such later time as Greene King, CK Bidco and the Panel agree) and the Greene King Meetings are expected to be held shortly thereafter. It is expected that the CKA Circular will be published by CKA on or about 16 September 2019, which is expected to be the same date as the date on which the Scheme Document is posted to Greene King Shareholders, with the CKA General Meeting being held on the same date as the Greene King Meetings. The Acquisition is currently expected to complete in the fourth quarter of 2019, subject to approval of Greene King Shareholders and CKA Shareholders and receipt of the required decision(s) from the European Commission and the sanction of the Scheme by the Court. An expected timetable of key events relating to the Acquisition will be provided in the Scheme Document."

So I've some time to picker over it a bit - and indeed, if there are any potential rival offerors out there, they have some time to picker over it as well!

Finally, I note that it is 18 months to the day since this thread was started. It's a long one (73 posts) and I haven't re-read it thoroughly to see what lessons I can learn from it - but its rather apposite title alone says that there almost certainly will be, so it seems worth drawing to people's attention so that they can (if they want to, of course) re-read it for their own lessons...

(*) The "sufficient number" is determined by the offeror and specified in the offer (as the "acceptance condition" minimum percentage of the shares in issue that they want to end up owning to go ahead with the deal), but must be at least enough to mean that they end up owning strictly over 50% of the shares in issue - so that they can pass any ordinary shareholder resolution they want to without regard to the other shareholders.

Gengulphus

idpickering
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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245671

Postby idpickering » August 20th, 2019, 9:36 am

All done. I’ve bought more HSBC, LGEN, MARS, and AV., with the monies from my sale of my GNK shares . Back to sleep now.

Ian.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245672

Postby Dod101 » August 20th, 2019, 9:44 am

IanTHughes wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I could provide a few recommendations if you need them for future investment.


You already have - and I have a couple of yours in my HYP, for which, thanks.

Dod101 is always helpful in this regard. For myself, I have found his "Don't touch with a bargepole" assessment particularly useful in providing rich pickings for any HYP


Always glad to help.

Dod

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245677

Postby pyad » August 20th, 2019, 10:04 am

A good example of what I call "market trading" I think, the corporate action mechanism which is likely to change even eternity HYPs very gradually over long periods.

What is interesting perhaps is that GNK in my opinion was one of the most unlikely shares amongst common HYP holdings to be taken out by a bid. But I'm not surprised because I've found quite often it's where you least expect such events that they actually occur, showing another reason why it is futile to make long term predictions about individual HYP shares.

I recall saying this before, but I'm of the view that as a generality HYPs may experience more bids and other corporate action long term than the market overall, with this activity being mostly highly beneficial for the port. The reason is that HY is a component of value so there is a value tilt in the HYP strategy. What happens with value is that it tends to be outed over time and bids, major reorganisations, divestments etc. are the way this can happen.

It's not a strong tendency because HYPs by definition are not a full-on value share trading approach, something I know a bit about, they are purely an income strategy but there is in my view a bias towards value and that is possibly why they may attract more than their share of bids etc.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245679

Postby Gengulphus » August 20th, 2019, 10:09 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:O Dear! This is the second time today that Arb has taken exception to my posts. Maybe he will be on better form tomorrow.

Hardly my fault if you say something that needs challenging And I thought that meant I was on good form today :lol:

You were, but of course you could manage to be on better form today - all you need to do is disagree with Dod three times! ;-)

Gengulphus

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245682

Postby Gengulphus » August 20th, 2019, 10:23 am

Bouleversee wrote:... yes, I do know one should buy low and sell high according to one school of thought but there is another which tells you to let your winners run and there are plenty of examples to prove or disprove either viewpoint but on the whole I prefer to stick with those who have been good to me so I still haven't sold anything. There have been days when I thought I might sell Marston's but today's big rise has put that thought out of my head until at least I recover my loss.

Well, the HYP school of thought is neither of those: it is "buy low and prefer not to sell at all". (That's "prefer not to", not "don't" - one can have exceptions, but needn't if one doesn't want to.)

But I've mostly seen the "buy low and sell high" school of thought presented as the obvious opposite of "buy high and sell low", used as a description of a trap novice share investors easily fall into... Obvious it may be, but there are plenty of other options that are not that trap.

Gengulphus

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245685

Postby Gengulphus » August 20th, 2019, 10:30 am

idpickering wrote:I have just regrettably sold all my Greene King shares. Going have a pause whilst I Pickering about what to do with the cash.

Since you seem to be regretting selling the Greene King shares, I'd have thought the answer is obvious - buy them back and regard the likely small loss to trading costs as the price of the lesson not to sell if you're going to regret it so quickly! ;-J

Gengulphus

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245697

Postby Arborbridge » August 20th, 2019, 10:57 am

scrumpyjack wrote:There are many in the City who thought the dividend was not safe, so I don't think one can say they would definitely have been able to carry on paying the current level of dividend. They have very high levels of borrowings. I would not have wanted to rely on their divi for retirement income.

One advantage the bidders have is that they can probably refinance those borrowings at a much lower interest rate and so make the business more viable.


They have always had a high level of borrowings - for the past 20 years or more. It goes with the territory, and they have always managed it well.


Much of it, including the rights issue, has been a prudent use of capital to acquire other pub groups in difficult times - Greene King has been the survivor and taken advantage of the stress. That's why is has grown from a small company to one worth just under three billion.

If you read the predator's reasons for buying GNK, they sound very like the reasons a HYPer would want to hold it.

"CKA's strategy is to look for businesses with stable and resilient characteristics and strong cash flow generating capabilities. The UK pub and brewing sector shares these characteristics and we believe that this sector will continue to be an important part of British culture and the eating and drinking out market in the long run. Greene King, being a leading integrated pub retailer and brewer with strong real estate backing, is well positioned to capture the opportunities that lie ahead."

They know a good thing when they see it - as did we HYPers. All they needed was a temporarily depressed price - rather like we relish!

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245703

Postby Dod101 » August 20th, 2019, 11:23 am

And if you see the other UK interests of LI Ka Shing's wider group, they have a lot of investments in the UK from utilities, to ports to mobile telephone operators so they are not 'green' when it comes to investing here.

As Arb says, they recognised a good thing when they saw it.

Dod

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245704

Postby OLTB » August 20th, 2019, 11:24 am

Morning all.

I appreciate that others will have different views on whether to sell now and reinvest or hold on until ‘market trading’ happens naturally.

I am choosing to wait for market trading as I don’t need to generate income to live on (still building), and I took the same approach when Sky was bought out and the ensuing bidding war improved the final price somewhat!

Good luck to whatever decisions each individual makes.

Cheers, OLTB.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245711

Postby Arborbridge » August 20th, 2019, 11:39 am

Gengulphus wrote:
idpickering wrote:I have just regrettably sold all my Greene King shares. Going have a pause whilst I Pickering about what to do with the cash.

Since you seem to be regretting selling the Greene King shares, I'd have thought the answer is obvious - buy them back and regard the likely small loss to trading costs as the price of the lesson not to sell if you're going to regret it so quickly! ;-J

Gengulphus


One can regret selling a share because one didn't want to sell, but knew it was the least worst action. That does not mean one wants to buy it back owing to that regret.

Arb.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245713

Postby Arborbridge » August 20th, 2019, 11:40 am

Dod101 wrote:As Arb says, they recognised a good thing when they saw it.

Dod


So glad you agree that GNK is a good thing and just possibly promoted from yesterday's "not that profitable or popular" ;)

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245722

Postby Julian » August 20th, 2019, 11:57 am

I'm going to be interested to watch the timing on this one. I, like a few others here I think, always try(*) to release enough capital gains in my HYP each year to make full use of my CGT allowance and to release at least some of the potential CGT liability building up in my portfolio over the long term. Those trades need to be quite carefully calculated to release just enough but not too much capital gain and for me one judgement call is how far from the end of the tax year I can risk doing them such that it becomes extremely unlikely that some unexpected event will go from a "that was totally out of the blue" announcement to booking additional unplanned-for capital gains into the current tax year.

In this case I am pretty certain that this deal will conclude within the approx 7.5 months left in this tax year but, since it is exactly the sort of totally unexpected announcement that I try to make sure can't disrupt my carefully planned use-up-my-annual-CGT-allowance calculations, it will be very interesting to see how quickly it does go from announcement to booking the potential CGT event. Of course a competing bid would make it a far less useful (in fact useless) benchmark to examine but if this bid does go smoothly from this current offer to conclusion it will be interesting to see how long it takes.

I think I'm sticking along for the ride and will let the conclusion of the deal cash me out rather than trying to sell into the market.

- Julian

(*) "try" because I got distracted in the first week of April last year and totally forgot thus leaving my 2018/2019 CGT allowance totally unused. That's one reason I want to not leave it to the last few days of the tax year this time but similarly I don't want to do the trades too early because then another unexpected event such as this could disrupt my calculations for the year.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245724

Postby idpickering » August 20th, 2019, 12:00 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:
idpickering wrote:I have just regrettably sold all my Greene King shares. Going have a pause whilst I Pickering about what to do with the cash.

Since you seem to be regretting selling the Greene King shares, I'd have thought the answer is obvious - buy them back and regard the likely small loss to trading costs as the price of the lesson not to sell if you're going to regret it so quickly! ;-J

Gengulphus


One can regret selling a share because one didn't want to sell, but knew it was the least worst action. That does not mean one wants to buy it back owing to that regret.

Arb.


Spot on Arb, thank you.

Ian.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245733

Postby daveh » August 20th, 2019, 12:21 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Things are always difficult for pubs - have been as long as I have been investing. As you say, nothing is forever, which is why they have adapted by becoming servers of food. However, I'm assuming these new owners can see what a good company this is and have confidence in the future. Unless, of course, they intend to sell off the estate and build flats on all the sites!
I must say, it seems an odd coincidence that as soon as they get a new man in charge (who someone mentioned was "into" property) the whole company gets turned upside down and possibly the property value will be outed in some way.
On thing is certain: the only people to get rich from this will be those who push it through, whilst the shareholders are kept happy by being thrown a bone. Before anyone mentions it's a huge premium, I'm convinced that GNK's SP would have recovered eventually to a similar level, and do I care about the wait? I need the steady income which the company would have provided.

Arb.



BBC "wake upto money" this morning suggested they were asset strippers and we can expect to see a lot of the estate closed and redeveloped. Which will be a sad day for a lot of local pubs and restaurants around the country.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245734

Postby Gengulphus » August 20th, 2019, 12:21 pm

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:Since you seem to be regretting selling the Greene King shares, I'd have thought the answer is obvious - buy them back and regard the likely small loss to trading costs as the price of the lesson not to sell if you're going to regret it so quickly! ;-J

One can regret selling a share because one didn't want to sell, but knew it was the least worst action. That does not mean one wants to buy it back owing to that regret.

Spot on Arb, thank you.

Just in case either of you (or anyone else) has missed the point of my post, see https://pc.net/emoticons/smiley/tongue_in_cheek.

Gengulphus

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245741

Postby Clitheroekid » August 20th, 2019, 1:04 pm

I've not read the thread, so sorry if it's been mentioned before, but amongst the squeals of joy from those who have obtained an unexpected windfall there must be quite a few shareholders who are feeling less than chuffed.

I was surprised to see that the GNK share price was as high as £11.83 back in 2007, and even as recently as the end of 2015 it was pushing £10. There must therefore be a few long term holders who paid more than the bid price, and who will consequently be looking at a capital loss.

It's easy to forget this when a bid is made offering a 50% premium. If the premium is in relation to a severely depressed share price the outcome might not be at all beneficial for many shareholders.

As a long-suffering shareholder in ITV myself, I can easily see this scenario with them. There have nong been rumours of a bid by Liberty, but a 50% premium to the current price would still mean a long term loss of capital - though to be fair they have paid some stonking dividends along the way.

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245750

Postby Julian » August 20th, 2019, 1:30 pm

daveh wrote:BBC "wake upto money" this morning suggested they were asset strippers and we can expect to see a lot of the estate closed and redeveloped. Which will be a sad day for a lot of local pubs and restaurants around the country.

As someone who loves beer and traditional UK pubs that is indeed a notable downside to the deal if significant closures do come to pass.

- Julian

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Re: Greene King - SOLD!

#245755

Postby IanTHughes » August 20th, 2019, 1:54 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:I've not read the thread, so sorry if it's been mentioned before, but amongst the squeals of joy from those who have obtained an unexpected windfall there must be quite a few shareholders who are feeling less than chuffed.

I was surprised to see that the GNK share price was as high as £11.83 back in 2007, and even as recently as the end of 2015 it was pushing £10. There must therefore be a few long term holders who paid more than the bid price, and who will consequently be looking at a capital loss.

You should first adjust the 2007 price you quoted for the 3 for 5 Rights Issue in the second half of 2009. But even when you do, anyone buying at such a high price would not be buying High Yield, which is after all the modus operandi of HYP and the subject of this board. The same goes for 2015 when, if you had bought at £10, you would have been buying a yield of little more than 2%, hardly HYP territory!


Ian


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