SSE Interims

[Arborbridge]

Here's what I think is the free cash situation - figures from Morningstar again.



It does seem that cash has been deteriorating, and one might feel Dod was right to turn sour on this share.

SSE and UU. get flagged up as both pretty poor in the free cash numbers, but whether this is a killer blow - how would I know? Companies can, and do, recover in this respect.

[IanTHughes]

Here is the dividend history for SSE PLC (SSE)

Year End  | Dividend | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years
31-Mar-20 | 80.0000  |  -4.31% |  -1.98% |    1.34% |    5.48%
31-Mar-19 | 97.5000  |   2.93% |   2.38% |    3.98% |    6.89%
31-Mar-18 | 94.7000  |   2.32% |   2.38% |    4.58% |    8.25%
31-Mar-17 | 91.3000  |   1.74% |   2.65% |    5.20% |         
31-Mar-16 | 89.4000  |   2.02% |   3.58% |    6.76% |         
31-Mar-15 | 88.4000  |   3.34% |   4.78% |    7.60% |         
31-Mar-14 | 86.7000  |   4.95% |   5.61% |    8.68% |         
31-Mar-13 | 84.2000  |   6.35% |   6.83% |    9.18% |         
31-Mar-12 | 80.1000  |   6.67% |   7.81% |    9.47% |         
31-Mar-11 | 75.0000  |   7.42% |  10.03% |    9.60% |         
31-Mar-10 | 70.0000  |   8.37% |  10.49% |    9.79% |         
31-Mar-09 | 66.0000  |  12.38% |  11.85% |    9.89% |         
31-Mar-08 | 60.5000  |  12.49% |  11.57% |   12.04% |         
31-Mar-07 | 55.0000  |  13.42% |  11.16% |          |         
31-Mar-06 | 46.5000  |   9.93% |   9.16% |          |         
31-Mar-05 | 42.5000  |   9.47% |   9.10% |          |         
31-Mar-04 | 37.7000  |   7.91% |   7.96% |          |         
31-Mar-03 | 35.0000  |   8.37% |  12.51% |          |         
31-Mar-02 | 32.4000  |   8.03% |         |          |         
31-Mar-01 | 30.0000  |  15.62% |         |          |         
31-Mar-00 | 27.5000  |         |         |          |         
31-Mar-99 | 25.7000  |         |         |          |         
31-Mar-98 | 19.4100  |         |         |          |

From a rising dividend point of view, it would appear to have been a splendid HYP candidate for many years with only one year of hold together with this year's cut, already broadcast by SSE, to blemish the record.

SSE was one of my original HYP purchases in February 2012, when the yield was around 6%, with multiple purchases since that date at higher yields - the highest yield at purchase was 7.46%. The current yield is just over 6.1% so the capital value has basically kept in step with the Dividend Increases. Dividends have returned 33.51% of my overall purchase costs giving an IRR of 6.79%

No, not a super duper HYP share but it has not done badly in my view. Of course, as a result of the drop in dividend this year, SSE is currently on my HYP naughty step. I will not top up at the moment but I certainly have no regrets about any of the past purchases.


Ian

[Wizard]

Ah, I can see why you are not that fond of them, given the 22nd May this year was the lowest closing price over the last 10 years. But a rarity I am sure you can survive given you seem to have a consistent knack of getting out at a very sensible point.

Somewhat bizarrely as somebody who theoretically no longer buys in to much of HYP teaching, in practice I seem to abide by at least some of the guidelines pretty solidly having only voluntarily sold one share in my HYP in the three years it has been running. Maybe that is why my HYP has performed so dismally?!?

having only voluntarily sold one share in my HYP in the three years it has been running.

Crumbs, that's almost Zen-like! Well done (I think)

For the record, my total is six in three years.

Arb.

Given the approach has resulted in me losing money in absolute terms, hence the negative IRR reported on another thread, I certainly do not feel it is anything to be congratulated for! I think it comes down to the fact that I have a real issue with crystallising a loss, so instead I have a tendency to watch the losers drop and drop and drop.

[Gengulphus]

having only voluntarily sold one share in my HYP in the three years it has been running.

Crumbs, that's almost Zen-like! Well done (I think)

For the record, my total is six in three years.

Was that a record high or a record low? And are you counting only complete sales of a holding, or also counting top-slicing?

Gengulphus

[Dod101]

Sadly, SSE has not been a very good performer in the last few years. Partly at least, I guess because of its rather rocky finances and partly of course because of the Comrade Corbyn effect. I sold some time ago.

I know I am too negative for some, but it is what I see that matters to me.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

having only voluntarily sold one share in my HYP in the three years it has been running.

Crumbs, that's almost Zen-like! Well done (I think)

For the record, my total is six in three years.

Was that a record high or a record low? And are you counting only complete sales of a holding, or also counting top-slicing?

Gengulphus

Not sure about the first question - probably lowish. Counted only complete voluntary sales. As for top-slicing, the number is much lower in the same period: United Business Machined (twice, then eventually taken over by Informa) and GSK.

[daveh]

having only voluntarily sold one share in my HYP in the three years it has been running.

Crumbs, that's almost Zen-like! Well done (I think)

For the record, my total is six in three years.

Was that a record high or a record low? And are you counting only complete sales of a holding, or also counting top-slicing?

Gengulphus

Not sure about the first question - probably lowish. Counted only complete voluntary sales. As for top-slicing, the number is much lower in the same period: United Business Machined (twice, then eventually taken over by Informa) and GSK.

I've made no voluntary complete sales in 20 years. I've top sliced Segro twice (this year and last year) as it was making up too large a percentage of my portfolio and for 2017 and 18 I was adding very little new money so was not going to able balance the portfolio just with new money and reinvested dividends. My performance has been Ok with an IRR for the portfolio of 7.7%pa as of a couple of days ago.

[Arborbridge]

I've made no voluntary complete sales in 20 years. I've top sliced Segro twice (this year and last year) as it was making up too large a percentage of my portfolio and for 2017 and 18 I was adding very little new money so was not going to able balance the portfolio just with new money and reinvested dividends. My performance has been Ok with an IRR for the portfolio of 7.7%pa as of a couple of days ago.

very good - your fingers are less itchy than mine! Is that XIRR calculated for the whole 20 years?

[daveh]

I've made no voluntary complete sales in 20 years. I've top sliced Segro twice (this year and last year) as it was making up too large a percentage of my portfolio and for 2017 and 18 I was adding very little new money so was not going to able balance the portfolio just with new money and reinvested dividends. My performance has been Ok with an IRR for the portfolio of 7.7%pa as of a couple of days ago.

very good - your fingers are less itchy than mine! Is that XIRR calculated for the whole 20 years?

The XIRR takes in a very small holding (£500) of Aviva, bought at demutualisation (of Norwich Union) in 1997 and then the start of my HYP* in May 2000 with a purchase of Lloyds so the majority of purchases happened from 2000. So yes the whole 20 years.


* It actually started as a PYAD26 mechanical portfolio, but when Stephen published his HYP ideas I thought that better matched my temperament and what I was aiming to do (which was to produce an income I could eventually live off if needed or improve my retirement income if it was not needed before then. It seems to have done that as I could live off the HYP income if I had to until I would take my pension.


The XIRR return has been OK, it was better in the past and it doesn't match up to TJH's which has been a couple of % points better. I also made a comparison between his unitised data with mine over the period I have unitised (from end of Sept 03) and both my accumulation and income units are a little behind his) My units values have grown from 1.0 at the end of September 03 to 3.74 and 1.67 for accumulation and income units respectively as of a couple of days ago. They'll be a little lower today as the portfolio value has fallen back, but I haven't recalculated the unit values.

[Arborbridge]

I've made no voluntary complete sales in 20 years. I've top sliced Segro twice (this year and last year) as it was making up too large a percentage of my portfolio and for 2017 and 18 I was adding very little new money so was not going to able balance the portfolio just with new money and reinvested dividends. My performance has been Ok with an IRR for the portfolio of 7.7%pa as of a couple of days ago.

very good - your fingers are less itchy than mine! Is that XIRR calculated for the whole 20 years?

The XIRR takes in a very small holding (£500) of Aviva, bought at demutualisation (of Norwich Union) in 1997 and then the start of my HYP* in May 2000 with a purchase of Lloyds so the majority of purchases happened from 2000. So yes the whole 20 years.


* It actually started as a PYAD26 mechanical portfolio, but when Stephen published his HYP ideas I thought that better matched my temperament and what I was aiming to do (which was to produce an income I could eventually live off if needed or improve my retirement income if it was not needed before then. It seems to have done that as I could live off the HYP income if I had to until I would take my pension.


The XIRR return has been OK, it was better in the past and it doesn't match up to TJH's which has been a couple of % points better. I also made a comparison between his unitised data with mine over the period I have unitised (from end of Sept 03) and both my accumulation and income units are a little behind his) My units values have grown from 1.0 at the end of September 03 to 3.74 and 1.67 for accumulation and income units respectively as of a couple of days ago. They'll be a little lower today as the portfolio value has fallen back, but I haven't recalculated the unit values.

I don't recall seeing your figures before, but these are pretty good and show HYP is doing what it claims to do, for relatively little effort it seems.

I have accumulatioon figures for nine years - currently standing at 208.7p from 100p. That's around 8.5% pa, very similar to your result over 16 years. Interestingly, I was looking at Vanguard VUKE last night and that is roughly of the same order of growth, measured over six years but with a less well known dividend output.

Arb.

[daveh]

I don't recall seeing your figures before, but these are pretty good and show HYP is doing what it claims to do, for relatively little effort it seems.

I have accumulatioon figures for nine years - currently standing at 208.7p from 100p. That's around 8.5% pa, very similar to your result over 16 years. Interestingly, I was looking at Vanguard VUKE last night and that is roughly of the same order of growth, measured over six years but with a less well known dividend output.

Arb.

I post them every year, but acouple of years ago they were bumped from HYP-P practical as my HYP has some high yield ETFs for foreign stuff so they are now on the Portfolio Management & Review board

Last years can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=15487

It contains links to a couple of previous years reports which will contain links to my old reports on TMF, but these may now be lost with the closure of the TMF boards. This years report will appear there (the Portfolio Management & Review board) sometime in January. I'm starting to introduce a little more of a bias to (mostly) high yield collectives, but these are planned to remain under 25% of the total at the moment, but if interested would be better discussed on the Stratagies board.

[Breelander]

It contains links to a couple of previous years reports which will contain links to my old reports on TMF, but these may now be lost with the closure of the TMF boards...

Some but not all have been archived in the Wayback Machine.

2015: https://web.archive.org/web/20160116120 ... 12972.aspx
2012: https://web.archive.org/web/20121230231 ... 10480.aspx