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Fishing again in the HYP Pool

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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Walrus101
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Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#264976

Postby Walrus101 » November 17th, 2019, 3:27 pm

The reality is this is 50% of my HYP with the other 50 percent being ITs. Does anyone have any thoughts on this motley crew?


Ive chased IMB as far as I can go. Maybe Rio is something I could look at. I don't much like HSBC prospects and really the only one I can see me adding more to I'd Legal and General. Any obvious oversight here?

Have broadly 8% in cash from divis and Greene King waiting to be deployed


Legal and General 8%
Imperial Brands 15%
HSBC 5%
BP 7%
Shell 5%
Marston's 5%
Vodafone 13%
British Land 12%
NRR 7%
BATs 5%
Grid 6%
Unilever 5%
Diageo 3%
Persimmon 4%

kempiejon
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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#264979

Postby kempiejon » November 17th, 2019, 3:54 pm

A miner wouid be a new sector, as would WPP or ITV or a water co, I prefer pennon, one of the pharms - but their dividends are static and that would put me off.

Dod101
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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#264980

Postby Dod101 » November 17th, 2019, 4:10 pm

I would certainly add Phoenix Holdings and/or maybe Chesnara.

Dod

Walrus101
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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#264995

Postby Walrus101 » November 17th, 2019, 5:09 pm

kempiejon wrote:A miner wouid be a new sector, as would WPP or ITV or a water co, I prefer pennon, one of the pharms - but their dividends are static and that would put me off.


Yes I sold of UU perhaps 12 months back due to Corbyn and historic valuation grounds I moved my utilities exposure to infrastructure ITs OT for here. I halved my Ngrid exposure at the same time.

Disney is my media company of choice and is off topic here. I think Rio will probably be my choice for investment

Thanks for the input

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#264996

Postby Walrus101 » November 17th, 2019, 5:10 pm

Dod101 wrote:I would certainly add Phoenix Holdings and/or maybe Chesnara.

Dod


I will take a look at phoenix

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#264997

Postby TUK020 » November 17th, 2019, 5:15 pm

Aerospace - BA?
Fixed line telecoms - BT?
Mining - BLT, RIO?
General Industrial - SMDS?
Media - WPP, ITV?
Asset Management - SDRC?

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265004

Postby Dod101 » November 17th, 2019, 6:20 pm

TUK020 wrote:Aerospace - BA?
Fixed line telecoms - BT?
Mining - BLT, RIO?
General Industrial - SMDS?
Media - WPP, ITV?
Asset Management - SDRC?


BT? Are you being serious? By itself it is a poor investment , although I suppose the Comrade Corbyn threat adds a bit of excitement.

SDRC (by which I suppose you mean Schroders) would be good providing you refer to the non voting shares. (We are after all on the HYP-P Board).

Dod

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265010

Postby tjh290633 » November 17th, 2019, 7:22 pm

Walrus101 wrote:The reality is this is 50% of my HYP with the other 50 percent being ITs. Does anyone have any thoughts on this motley crew?


Ive chased IMB as far as I can go. Maybe Rio is something I could look at. I don't much like HSBC prospects and really the only one I can see me adding more to I'd Legal and General. Any obvious oversight here?

Have broadly 8% in cash from divis and Greene King waiting to be deployed


Legal and General 8%
Imperial Brands 15%
HSBC 5%
BP 7%
Shell 5%
Marston's 5%
Vodafone 13%
British Land 12%
NRR 7%
BATs 5%
Grid 6%
Unilever 5%
Diageo 3%
Persimmon 4%

Have a look at viewtopic.php?p=264799#p264799 which ranks my portfolio by yield. You may get some inspiration from that.

TJH

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265054

Postby Arborbridge » November 18th, 2019, 8:08 am

Walrus101 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I would certainly add Phoenix Holdings and/or maybe Chesnara.

Dod


I will take a look at phoenix


I'd prefer PHNX being the larger company. I am, though, biassed since my Chesnara holding is 30% underwater but my wife's Phoenix holding is roughly the same but positive :?

Arb.

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265058

Postby Wizard » November 18th, 2019, 8:22 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Walrus101 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I would certainly add Phoenix Holdings and/or maybe Chesnara.

Dod


I will take a look at phoenix


I'd prefer PHNX being the larger company. I am, though, biassed since my Chesnara holding is 30% underwater but my wife's Phoenix holding is roughly the same but positive :?

Arb.

Given the divergent price movements are the yields now a long way apart?

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265095

Postby Arborbridge » November 18th, 2019, 10:12 am

Wizard wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Walrus101 wrote:
I will take a look at phoenix


I'd prefer PHNX being the larger company. I am, though, biassed since my Chesnara holding is 30% underwater but my wife's Phoenix holding is roughly the same but positive :?

Arb.

Given the divergent price movements are the yields now a long way apart?
crumps. you ask some strange questions 8-)

Phnx forecast on capital invested is 6.6%, CSN 3.99%

Arb.

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265098

Postby Dod101 » November 18th, 2019, 10:29 am

Arborbridge wrote:Phnx forecast on capital invested is 6.6%, CSN 3.99%


I hold both but on yield alone Phoenix is obviously the one. However I doubt that Chesnara is yielding only 3.99%. :? .I think it is more like 7.5% which is where I would have expected it to be, bearing in mind its poor capital performance recently.

Dod

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265131

Postby Wizard » November 18th, 2019, 12:09 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Wizard wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
I'd prefer PHNX being the larger company. I am, though, biassed since my Chesnara holding is 30% underwater but my wife's Phoenix holding is roughly the same but positive :?

Arb.

Given the divergent price movements are the yields now a long way apart?
crumps. you ask some strange questions 8-)

Phnx forecast on capital invested is 6.6%, CSN 3.99%

Arb.

It is just that if one is up 30% and the other down 30% the yields have also moved a lot. So I was wondering if they had similar yields at time of purchase (now moved apart) or if they had very different yields at the time (now converged).

As per Dod's point below I am not sure where 3.99% came from. HL has CSN at 7.7% and PHNX at 6.3%. With the 30% quoted movements that suggests the PHNX yield was a fair bit higher than the CSN at the time you bought them, but that has now 'flipped'.

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265134

Postby spiderbill » November 18th, 2019, 12:32 pm

Chesnara - just checked mine and it's 7.7% trailing. Sharecast agrees with that figure and forecasts 7.9% forward.

Dod, do you have any views on what has gone wrong with the results at Chesnara recently? I did well with them initially but their earnings haven't been great this year and that's been reflected in the share price. Looking back their EPS does seem to swing quite a lot - is this in the nature of their business model or is there something else going on?

I probably shouldn't even be looking at insurers any more as I'm notoriously overweight on them but it seems that everywhere else I look at the moment I see problems rather than opportunities except where I'm already well invested and reluctant to go more overweight. Currently toying with BHP (I already hold Rio in that sector) or possibly International Consolidated Airlines, but not at all sure about either. Might look at Bovis when I get some from the Galliford merger.

For the OP's situation I would certainly consider Rio. My other suggestion would be Regional REIT, although the price has crept up a bit recently from when I bought most of mine. Still looks a pretty decent bet though and with a 7.4% yield it gives a good but not "too good" return.

Spiderbill

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265160

Postby Arborbridge » November 18th, 2019, 2:42 pm

Wizard wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Wizard wrote:Given the divergent price movements are the yields now a long way apart?
crumps. you ask some strange questions 8-)

Phnx forecast on capital invested is 6.6%, CSN 3.99%

Arb.

It is just that if one is up 30% and the other down 30% the yields have also moved a lot. So I was wondering if they had similar yields at time of purchase (now moved apart) or if they had very different yields at the time (now converged).

As per Dod's point below I am not sure where 3.99% came from. HL has CSN at 7.7% and PHNX at 6.3%. With the 30% quoted movements that suggests the PHNX yield was a fair bit higher than the CSN at the time you bought them, but that has now 'flipped'.


Perhaps I misunderstood the question. The yield I quoted isn't the current yield you would buy now, but the effective yield on my purchase, taking into account the change in capital. One has gone up, the other down. Taking the CSN dividend I expect and divide it by the capital I've put in, gives the yield I quoted. Naturally, it is much less than the current yield if purchased now.

I thought that is what you asked for?

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265163

Postby Arborbridge » November 18th, 2019, 2:44 pm

spiderbill wrote:Chesnara - just checked mine and it's 7.7% trailing. Sharecast agrees with that figure and forecasts 7.9% forward.

Dod, do you have any views on what has gone wrong with the results at Chesnara recently? I did well with them initially but their earnings haven't been great this year and that's been reflected in the share price. Looking back their EPS does seem to swing quite a lot - is this in the nature of their business model or is there something else going on?

I probably shouldn't even be looking at insurers any more as I'm notoriously overweight on them but it seems that everywhere else I look at the moment I see problems rather than opportunities except where I'm already well invested and reluctant to go more overweight. Currently toying with BHP (I already hold Rio in that sector) or possibly International Consolidated Airlines, but not at all sure about either. Might look at Bovis when I get some from the Galliford merger.

For the OP's situation I would certainly consider Rio. My other suggestion would be Regional REIT, although the price has crept up a bit recently from when I bought most of mine. Still looks a pretty decent bet though and with a 7.4% yield it gives a good but not "too good" return.

Spiderbill


Insurers are amongst the less likely to be nationalised, so there's a benefit 8-)

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265165

Postby Arborbridge » November 18th, 2019, 2:46 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Phnx forecast on capital invested is 6.6%, CSN 3.99%


I hold both but on yield alone Phoenix is obviously the one. However I doubt that Chesnara is yielding only 3.99%. :? .I think it is more like 7.5% which is where I would have expected it to be, bearing in mind its poor capital performance recently.

Dod


See my post. I didn't say it was yielding 3.99%, but on capital invested.

Arb.

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265177

Postby Wizard » November 18th, 2019, 3:48 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Wizard wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:crumps. you ask some strange questions 8-)

Phnx forecast on capital invested is 6.6%, CSN 3.99%

Arb.

It is just that if one is up 30% and the other down 30% the yields have also moved a lot. So I was wondering if they had similar yields at time of purchase (now moved apart) or if they had very different yields at the time (now converged).

As per Dod's point below I am not sure where 3.99% came from. HL has CSN at 7.7% and PHNX at 6.3%. With the 30% quoted movements that suggests the PHNX yield was a fair bit higher than the CSN at the time you bought them, but that has now 'flipped'.


Perhaps I misunderstood the question. The yield I quoted isn't the current yield you would buy now, but the effective yield on my purchase, taking into account the change in capital. One has gone up, the other down. Taking the CSN dividend I expect and divide it by the capital I've put in, gives the yield I quoted. Naturally, it is much less than the current yield if purchased now.

I thought that is what you asked for?

No, much simpler question, just how do the yields of the two look now. I did wonder why you thought it was a strange question :lol:

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265196

Postby Dod101 » November 18th, 2019, 5:09 pm

Funny thread this, especially about Phoenix and Chesnara. What the OP needs to know is what is the current yield on both. Chesnara yields around 7.8% and Phoenix Holdings around 6.3% I think we have more or less established. I am sorry to say that I have no idea why Chesnara has done so poorly on the capital front (and thus pushed up the yield) but it is a smaller company and will most likely be more susceptible to swings than a bigger company. Their cash generation was down a bit in their announcement of half yearly results to 29 August 2019 owing to a 'symmetric adjustment' (Look up the announcement; I was not much the wiser) and that has obviously not helped market sentiment. It is surely a good buy at these levels, with a 3% interim dividend increase, and I cannot think it is in any danger. The two companies are also no longer exclusively 'zombies; they both have open books of new business and that has changed their dynamics a bit.

There are of course several other shares with good yields (mentioned in this thread) which the OP may like to look at.

Dod

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Re: Fishing again in the HYP Pool

#265207

Postby Arborbridge » November 18th, 2019, 6:24 pm

Dod101 wrote:Funny thread this, especially about Phoenix and Chesnara. What the OP needs to know is what is the current yield on both. Chesnara yields around 7.8% and Phoenix Holdings around 6.3% I think we have more or less established. I am sorry to say that I have no idea why Chesnara has done so poorly on the capital front (and thus pushed up the yield) but it is a smaller company and will most likely be more susceptible to swings than a bigger company. Their cash generation was down a bit in their announcement of half yearly results to 29 August 2019 owing to a 'symmetric adjustment' (Look up the announcement; I was not much the wiser) and that has obviously not helped market sentiment. It is surely a good buy at these levels, with a 3% interim dividend increase, and I cannot think it is in any danger. The two companies are also no longer exclusively 'zombies; they both have open books of new business and that has changed their dynamics a bit.

There are of course several other shares with good yields (mentioned in this thread) which the OP may like to look at.

Dod


What we need to know is the current yoeld, naturally, but Wizard's question: "Given the divergent price movements are the yields now a long way apart?" in the context of my post saying that my PHNX had risen and CSN had fallen 30% seemed to hint at something more specific to my situation. After all, Wizard could, at the cllick of a mouse, find out what the yields are, so it seemed he was asking a different question - i.e what the yield was on my holdings. That's how I interpreted the question, anyhow.

Thanks for your further opinion on CSN: always valuable. My problem with any insurance shares is that I am quite well loaded up at present. It seems the insurance sector has been offering biggish yields for a long time, so that is not surprising - but my dilemma is how far to go.
Presently the sector accounts for 12.5% in my HYP.

Arb.


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