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HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

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IanTHughes
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HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#267751

Postby IanTHughes » November 27th, 2019, 5:30 pm

The value of an Accumulation Unit calculated for my HYP, started in February 2012 at £10.0000, has today reached a new record high of £19.4441, an increase of 94.44% over 7 ¾ years. The previous high - £19.3650 - was set on 22 May 2018.

The value of an Income Unit calculated for my HYP of £13.1804 still straggles some way behind the all-time high of £14.6005 achieved on 26 May 2017, although it is ahead of the re-based value of the FTSE 100 Unit.

There has been - mostly - steady progress as follows:

 Date     |  Accum. Value (£) | Income Value (£) | FTSE 100 Re-Based 
10 Feb 12 | 10.0000 | 10.0000 | 10.0000
01-Jan-13 | 10.9153 | 10.3985 | 10.0776
01-Jan-14 | 14.2079 | 12.9293 | 11.5322
01-Jan-15 | 15.0530 | 13.1582 | 11.2195
01-Jan-16 | 15.2404 | 12.7310 | 10.6663
01-Jan-17 | 17.2406 | 13.7244 | 12.2050
01-Jan-18 | 18.8433 | 14.2403 | 13.1361
01-Jan-19 | 16.5709 | 11.8531 | 11.4964
Today | 19.4441 | 13.1804 | 12.7079


Here is the detailed chart showing all the ups and downs:

Image

Of course, HYP is about income which in the case of my HYP is also increasing year-on-year – well almost - as can be seen here:

Image

Here is the Portfolio, warts and all!

INDUSTRY          | VALUE  | INCOME | SECTOR                              | VALUE  | INCOME | EPIC | COMPANY                  | VALUE | INCOME | YIELD
Basic Materials | 15.35% | 16.62% | Mining | 4.56% | 4.56% | BHP | BHP Group | 4.21% | 4.30% | 6.00%
| | | | | | S32 | South32 | 0.34% | 0.26% | 4.38%
| | | Oil & Gas Producers | 10.79% | 12.06% | BP | BP | 5.54% | 6.16% | 6.53%
| | | | | | RDSB | Royal Dutch Shell | 5.26% | 5.91% | 6.60%
Consumer Goods | 21.42% | 24.77% | Beverages | 5.76% | 2.99% | BVIC | Britvic | 5.76% | 2.99% | 3.05%
| | | Food Producers | 3.47% | 2.36% | TATE | Tate & Lyle | 3.47% | 2.36% | 4.00%
| | | Tobacco | 7.72% | 12.62% | BATS | British American Tobacco | 3.47% | 3.90% | 6.59%
| | | | | | IMB | Imperial Brands | 4.24% | 8.72% | 12.07%
| | | Household Goods & Home Construction | 4.47% | 6.80% | CRST | Crest Nicholson | 1.24% | 1.82% | 8.61%
| | | | | | PSN | Persimmon | 3.23% | 4.98% | 9.05%
Consumer Services | 10.94% | 10.29% | Food & Drug Retailers | 1.72% | 1.49% | SBRY | J Sainsbury | 1.72% | 1.49% | 5.08%
| | | General Retailers | 2.71% | 2.51% | BWNG | N Brown Group | 2.71% | 2.51% | 5.45%
| | | Travel & Leisure | 5.62% | 5.46% | MARS | Marston's | 4.85% | 4.71% | 5.71%
| | | | | | SGC | Stagecoach Group | 0.77% | 0.75% | 5.72%
| | | Media | 0.89% | 0.83% | ITV | ITV | 0.89% | 0.83% | 5.52%
Financials | 18.65% | 21.03% | Banks | 4.25% | 4.91% | HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 4.25% | 4.91% | 6.79%
| | | Life Insurance | 6.06% | 7.05% | AV | Aviva | 2.37% | 3.04% | 7.54%
| | | | | | PHNX | Phoenix Group Holdings | 3.69% | 4.01% | 6.38%
| | | Financial Services | 4.61% | 5.26% | SLA | Standard Life Aberdeen | 4.61% | 5.26% | 6.70%
| | | Nonlife Insurance | 3.73% | 3.81% | ADM | Admiral Group | 3.73% | 3.81% | 6.01%
Health Care | 5.43% | 2.68% | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 5.43% | 2.68% | AZN | AstraZeneca | 5.43% | 2.68% | 2.90%
Industrials | 4.16% | 2.77% | Aerospace & Defence | 3.75% | 2.50% | BA | BAE Systems | 3.75% | 2.50% | 3.92%
| | | Construction & Materials | 0.19% | 0.00% | KIE | Kier Group | 0.19% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | | Industrial Transportation | 0.23% | 0.27% | RMG | Royal Mail | 0.23% | 0.27% | 7.07%
Property | 4.14% | 7.81% | Real Estate Investment Trusts | 4.14% | 7.81% | NRR | New River Reit | 4.14% | 7.81% | 11.09%
Telecom | 9.71% | 6.70% | Fixed Line Telecom | 0.44% | 0.59% | BT-A | BT Group | 0.44% | 0.59% | 7.98%
| | | Mobile Telecom | 9.28% | 6.11% | TALK | Talktalk Telecom Group | 3.17% | 1.28% | 2.37%
| | | | | | VOD | Vodafone Group | 6.11% | 4.84% | 4.65%
Utilities | 7.45% | 7.32% | Electricity | 4.80% | 4.98% | SSE | SSE | 4.80% | 4.98% | 6.10%
| | | Multi-Utilities | 2.66% | 2.34% | NG | National Grid | 2.66% | 2.34% | 5.18%
| | | | | | | | | |
CASH | 2.25% | | CASH | 2.25% | | | CASH | 2.25% | |
EX-DIVIDEND | 0.50% | | EX-DIVIDEND | 0.50% | | | EX-DIVIDEND | 0.50% | |

Constructive comments welcome

Enjoy!


Ian
Last edited by IanTHughes on November 27th, 2019, 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Itsallaguess
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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#267754

Postby Itsallaguess » November 27th, 2019, 5:39 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Constructive comments welcome


Well done Ian.

Another undeniable long-term data-set for the doubters to ignore....

https://i.imgflip.com/3haxts.jpg

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#267761

Postby Arborbridge » November 27th, 2019, 6:25 pm

IanTHughes wrote:The value of an Accumulation Unit calculated for my HYP, started in February 2012 at £10.0000, has today reached a new record high of £19.4441, an increase of 94.44% over 7 ¾ years. The previous high - £19.3650 - was set on 22 May 2018.




Ian


That's very good indeed - I believe mine is around 80% over the same period, so whatever you are doing, it's working better than mine!

I might download my latest prices and stick up an equivalent chart later on. All HYPs might be doing what they were designed to do: but not all HYPs are equal, despite fishing in the same pond. 8-)

Arb.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#267900

Postby daveh » November 28th, 2019, 10:53 am

IanTHughes wrote:The value of an Accumulation Unit calculated for my HYP, started in February 2012 at £10.0000, has today reached a new record high of £19.4441, an increase of 94.44% over 7 ¾ years. The previous high - £19.3650 - was set on 22 May 2018.

The value of an Income Unit calculated for my HYP of £13.1804 still straggles some way behind the all-time high of £14.6005 achieved on 26 May 2017, although it is ahead of the re-based value of the FTSE 100 Unit.


Ian



My results are very similar to yours over the same time period. I've rebased my result to the same scale as yours from 29Feb12 and my accumulation units are at £20.07 (also an all time high) and income units at £13.73 and my all time high for income units is pretty much the same time as yours, at the end of May 17 at £14.84. I'm pleased to see I'm ahead of the FTSE 100 with my income units. I was having a brief look to see if I could find data for the Total return index, but so far I've only found data for the last 5 years. I'll be doing a full report in January and will try and produce some similar graphs for my portfolio back to 2003. I might have problems uploading the images we'll see when the time comes.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#267974

Postby Arborbridge » November 28th, 2019, 3:50 pm

I now have definitive results for my Acc units to compare with yours:

Feb 1st 2012 118.95
Nov 27th 2019 214.13

Increase: 1.80x, compared with your 1.94x.

If we think of that in terms of a £100,000 starting pot, that's a big difference you've gained - well done.

If we take the FTSE HY TR as a benchmark, that has achieved 1.69x over the same period.

Arb.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268075

Postby MDS1951 » November 29th, 2019, 7:51 am

A quick check tells me that I began to unitise my HYP on an accumulation basis in July 2012; the value of a unit then was £12.17352. On 1 November 2019 the value of a unit had risen to £22.82624 ( a record for MDS) which is an increase of 87.5%. I haven't tried to rebase for inflation or anything like that, it's simply a comparison of the £ value of a unit at those times.

I'm happy with that as I have had a few disasters along the way (Carillion, De La Rue, Lloyds, RBS to name only four!) but these have been more than outweighed by excellent gains in outfits like Relx, Compass, Legal and General, Diageo to name but four. However, I'm well aware that we are in a long-running bull market and my figures might not look so good in 2 years time.

I'll present my usual end of year results for what is now my HYP-ish portfolio and my ITs in early January 2020.

MDS1951

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268084

Postby vrdiver » November 29th, 2019, 8:37 am

IanTHughes wrote:Image

Constructive comments welcome

Thanks for posting that Ian.

Just trying to understand the graph - you have posted a comparison of your HYP Accumulation units versus the FTSE 100 and your income (Dividend) units. Is that going to flatter the accumulation line unduly?

If your accumulation units are retaining dividends, thus increasing in value by, say, an extra 5% compounded year-on-year, whereas the income units will increase in quantity as you reinvest the dividends, rather than in value-per-unit. The FTSE 100 line has the same problem as dividends are "lost" from the comparison.

The dividend unit vs FTSE100 lines seem to show that HYP shares gained popularity in the first half of the decade, but lost most of their "premium"
in 2018, only to start edging away again in the last few months. Normal waxing and waning of the market I suspect?

If you have the data, it would be informative to see the accumulation units graph compared against the FTSE100 TR or similar benchmark, but in any case, the message I take from your graph is that over sensible investment timescales, HYP works during the accumulation phase, but also that it holds its own when used in the decumulation phase, which is just as important, if not more so!

VRD

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268102

Postby Dod101 » November 29th, 2019, 10:15 am

I do not unitise so cannot produce similar figures but this is the HYP-P Board. Why the emphasis on accumulation units? It is income we worry about here is it not? That I thought was the sole concern and aim.

Dod

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268106

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2019, 10:28 am

vrdiver wrote:Thanks for posting that Ian.

Just trying to understand the graph - you have posted a comparison of your HYP Accumulation units versus the FTSE 100 and your income (Dividend) units. Is that going to flatter the accumulation line unduly?

If your accumulation units are retaining dividends, thus increasing in value by, say, an extra 5% compounded year-on-year, whereas the income units will increase in quantity as you reinvest the dividends, rather than in value-per-unit. The FTSE 100 line has the same problem as dividends are "lost" from the comparison.

The dividend unit vs FTSE100 lines seem to show that HYP shares gained popularity in the first half of the decade, but lost most of their "premium"
in 2018, only to start edging away again in the last few months. Normal waxing and waning of the market I suspect?

If you have the data, it would be informative to see the accumulation units graph compared against the FTSE100 TR or similar benchmark, but in any case, the message I take from your graph is that over sensible investment timescales, HYP works during the accumulation phase, but also that it holds its own when used in the decumulation phase, which is just as important, if not more so!

Of course you are right. One can usefully "compare" the changing value of an HYP Dividend Unit to the changing value of the FTSE 100, but "comparing" the changing value of an HYP Accumulation Unit to either is not a fair comparison. My chart simply records all three and is not meant to demonstrate any comparison involving HYP Accumulation Units, for which one would need another range of values that included re-invested dividends, such as the FTSE 100 Total Return index.

Up until now I have not had access to such a Total Return index but, thanks to Breelander's post viewtopic.php?p=267527#p267527 I now have the data that I need, at least going back to 1 Jan 2013.

I have now charted the value of this FT 100 Total Return against my HYP Accumulation Unit, re-basing both to a value of £10.0000 on the 1 January 2013

Image

So, it appears that my HYP Accumulation Unit is ahead, but not by much.


By the way, if anyone has the FTSE 100 Total Return values starting from 1 January 2012, I should be very grateful to receive the same and delighted to add this to my original chart, anyone?


Ian

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268115

Postby pyad » November 29th, 2019, 11:43 am

Dod101 wrote:I do not unitise so cannot produce similar figures but this is the HYP-P Board. Why the emphasis on accumulation units? It is income we worry about here is it not? That I thought was the sole concern and aim.

Dod


Indeed it is, but a large proportion of HYPers, maybe the majority, are in the construction stage and reinvesting divs. For those investors the results of accumulation units can be informative.

I'm with you in not unitising my own HYP but nonetheless it is interesting to see others' results in this regard.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268119

Postby moorfield » November 29th, 2019, 12:11 pm

pyad wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I do not unitise so cannot produce similar figures but this is the HYP-P Board. Why the emphasis on accumulation units? It is income we worry about here is it not? That I thought was the sole concern and aim.

Dod


Indeed it is, but a large proportion of HYPers, maybe the majority, are in the construction stage and reinvesting divs. For those investors the results of accumulation units can be informative.

I'm with you in not unitising my own HYP but nonetheless it is interesting to see others' results in this regard.


pyad just beat me to it. In my case acc units better reflect what I am currently doing, ie. accumulating. I simply C.B.A. with the pfaff of recomputing inc units every time I buy, sell or top up within my portfolio; I need to do this much less frequently with acc units only when I make lump sum contributions into the portfolio. I measure progress by Overall Income / Acc Unit each year which is a convenient way of redacting the nominal income amounts I report here.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268134

Postby Dod101 » November 29th, 2019, 12:57 pm

Interesting. I do see the point of accumulation units if you are in the building or construction phase, but as I understand it a pyadic HYP was never intended as a savings or 'accumulation' vehicle. I have often wondered how concentrating on growth investments would turn out against a traditional HYP in that regard, because certainly for the last few years, UK high income shares have not done very well much on the capital front. That is not surprising when we consider the number of static dividends from many of the large companies and of course I do not need to mention the tobaccos.

Dod
Last edited by Dod101 on November 29th, 2019, 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268135

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 29th, 2019, 12:57 pm

IanTHughes wrote:By the way, if anyone has the FTSE 100 Total Return values starting from 1 January 2012, I should be very grateful to receive the same and delighted to add this to my original chart, anyone?


I can take a look for you. I have various saved pdfs of the Financial Times market summaries including normal and TR versions of FTSE 100, 250, All Share, All World. However, I only have them for April 5 and 30 for most years. I will have other data points when I've saved these summaries on the same day I bought a particular share. Would April 2012 help, if I have it?

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268149

Postby Lootman » November 29th, 2019, 2:22 pm

IanTHughes wrote:The value of an Accumulation Unit calculated for my HYP, started in February 2012 at £10.0000, has today reached a new record high of £19.4441, an increase of 94.44% over 7 ¾ years. The previous high - £19.3650 - was set on 22 May 2018.

The value of an Income Unit calculated for my HYP of £13.1804 still straggles some way behind the all-time high of £14.6005 achieved on 26 May 2017, although it is ahead of the re-based value of the FTSE 100 Unit.

I always use so-called "income units" for the purpose of comparison because of what others have noted - it takes out of the equation the factor of whether you spend the income or not, and allows a more equitable comparison with an underlying ex-div index.

If I understand your data correctly then your "income units" are up by 31.8% in those 7 and 3/4 years. That is of course a very favourable time period since it starts at the end of the sub-prime collapse and ends at all-time highs. As such almost anything would have done well. Some obvious tracker alternatives to your portfolio are as follows:

The FTSE-100 was around 6,000 in February 2012 and is now around 7,400 An increase of 23.33%.

The S&P 500 was around 1,350 in February 2012 and is now around 3,150. An increase of 133%

The MSCI-ACWI global index was around 45 in February 2012 and is now around 78. An increase of 73%.

Note that the last two of those are dollar denominated and, as it happens, the pound has declined significantly versus the dollar over this period. On the other hand the dividends from the UK portfolios have been higher. Not sure they cancel out but it might be close.

There is also some time value to the UK portfolios there as they dished out their returns sooner, as you'd expect from a HY approach. This would be reflected in any TR comparisons for those do not who spend their dividends.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268153

Postby teecee90 » November 29th, 2019, 3:06 pm

IanTHughes wrote:thanks to Breelander's post viewtopic.php?p=267527#p267527 I now have the data that I need, at least going back to 1 Jan 2013.
Ian

Hmmmm. I know I posted the mobile version, but come on!

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268154

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2019, 3:17 pm

teecee90 wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:thanks to Breelander's post viewtopic.php?p=267527#p267527 I now have the data that I need, at least going back to 1 Jan 2013.Ian

Hmmmm. I know I posted the mobile version, but come on!

.... and of course, many thanks to teecee90 being the first to point to the correct website, albeit a version where the data was not available to me, and of course I cannot forget the input of Arborbridge, whose brilliant foresight in starting the thread in the first place made it all possible. Finally, my thanks to anyone else who thinks they deserve it :D


Ian

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268191

Postby tjh290633 » November 29th, 2019, 7:37 pm

Just for the record, my income units were at £4.37 at the end of February 2012 and are at £6.08 at the close tonight. That's a 39% increase. The accumulation units were at £14.03 then and are at £27.76 tonight, a 98% increase and just off last night's all-time high. The high spot for the income units was at the end of December 2017, at £6.37.

TJH

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268273

Postby SKYSHIP » November 30th, 2019, 1:55 pm

tjh - Q. Do you ever trade? Do you ever sell anything as with KIE, NRR & RMG in your portfolio, all crashing for their own specific reasons, you must have some good winners to counteract such losses and return 90%+ in 7yrs.

NRR is a surprise as the collapse in Retail was well flagged; and holding for the dividend when the capital value was under threat perhaps suggests you bought recently after the fall.

I'm surprised that your REIT allocation is so small when the yields are high, generally secure and the sps are of course more than covered by sound, marketable assets.

Can I recommend you take a look at the REITs thread; and in particular at the RGL (Regional REIT) thread. There you will find extensive information on a very well managed propco. Among the many bull points:

# An annually increasing dividend providing a yield of 7.6%
# A 5% NAV discount
# Operating in the UK sweet-spot of regional offices
# Offices in short supply due to little development since the 2008/9 Crash
# Hence, rising rents
# Excellent active asset management
# Long-term borrowings at 3.5% v. Portfolio yield at 8.1%

IMO RGL should be a banker in any high yield portfolio.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268276

Postby PinkDalek » November 30th, 2019, 2:34 pm

SKYSHIP wrote:tjh - Q. Do you ever trade? Do you ever sell anything as with KIE, NRR & RMG in your portfolio, ...


You should be asking IanTHughes. It is his portfolio summarised in the OP. In any event, a read of this board would answer your question to tjh290633. His latest "Tinker" being described here viewtopic.php?f=15&t=20603.

The last page (8 so far) of the RGL (Regional REIT) thread you reference should be here viewtopic.php?p=258770#p258770.

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Re: HYP Accumulation Units at Highest Value To-Date!

#268285

Postby SKYSHIP » November 30th, 2019, 3:28 pm

PD - thnx for that - looks as though I should have done some background rather than stumbling onto this thread - will restrict myself to the REIT thread in future!


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