The Lemon Fool

Just calculated my 20 share HYP performance for the calendar year 2019 (close 31/12/18 to close 31/12/19):

Income per unit grew by 4.5%.

Out of 56 dividends received, 4 were cuts (VOD, GFRD x 2, S32), compensated by 2 specials received (BHP, S32).

Income unit price grew by 10.5%, compared to FTSE 100 by 12.3% and FTSE AS by 16.9%.

Yield achieved (total dividends received, including specials, divided by today's capital value) was 5.7%.

A low activity year: 1 sold (Capita), 1 top-sliced (GSK), 2 topped up (WPP, IMB) and 1 new share (SLA). Total number of units increased by just 4%.

Generally happy HYP is doing what it should.

How did anyone else do?

FD

You are the returning officer for Newcastle upon Tyne Central, and I claim my £5!

Good to read HYP is doing its stuff for you.

funduffer wrote:Just calculated my 20 share HYP performance for the calendar year 2019 (close 31/12/18 to close 31/12/19):

Income per unit grew by 4.5%.

Out of 56 dividends received, 4 were cuts (VOD, GFRD x 2, S32), compensated by 2 specials received (BHP, S32).

Income unit price grew by 10.5%, compared to FTSE 100 by 12.3% and FTSE AS by 16.9%.

Yield achieved (total dividends received, including specials, divided by today's capital value) was 5.7%.

A low activity year: 1 sold (Capita), 1 top-sliced (GSK), 2 topped up (WPP, IMB) and 1 new share (SLA). Total number of units increased by just 4%.

Generally happy HYP is doing what it should.

How did anyone else do?

FD

A shame the Christmas Eve rally didn't conditue - prices today dropped back by 1% as did my income forecast.
Still, not a bad end to the year.
I'll post my report in the usual way in a day or two.

Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:
A shame the Christmas Eve rally didn't conditue - prices today dropped back by 1% as did my income forecast.
Still, not a bad end to the year.
I'll post my report in the usual way in a day or two.

Arb.

Arb, If prices fall wouldn't dividends forecast remain the same, it's just yield on a smaller value, do you need to re-run the forecast yields? I see prices are back up a bit.

My HYP ISA income is up about 5.8% in hard cash compared to last year, yielded 5.6% based on year beginning value and total dividends inc specials received over 12 months. All dividends re-invested throughout the year. Forecast yield from HYPTUSS 4.8%.

kempiejon wrote:

Arborbridge wrote:
A shame the Christmas Eve rally didn't conditue - prices today dropped back by 1% as did my income forecast.
Still, not a bad end to the year.
I'll post my report in the usual way in a day or two.

Arb.

Arb, If prices fall wouldn't dividends forecast remain the same, it's just yield on a smaller value, do you need to re-run the forecast yields? I see prices are back up a bit.

Not necessarily. Forecasts float about independently of the price, and to come to firm conclusion one would also have to check each line to make sure the website had updated the yields for the changing price - sometimes the update lags a bit. Checking 35-40 shares isn't trivial, so I don't normally do it except when I need to know the forecast is without any "funnies" - that is, when I'm deciding what I might pay myself in the future.
For the normal HYPTUSS "run" I wouldn't normally worry about it too much* - it all comes out in the wash eventually.

*the only routine alteration I make at the moment is for BHP where for some reason the yield is down as around 10.xx% when it should be around 5.9% or similar. It's been like that for weeks and I've no idea why, neither am I too bothered since I take it into account.

Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:the only routine alteration I make at the moment is for BHP where for some reason the yield is down as around 10.xx% when it should be around 5.9% or similar. It's been like that for weeks and I've no idea why, neither am I too bothered since I take it into account.

Back in January 2019 BHP Group (BHP) had a Return of Capital - 79.529p per share. If you add that to a forecast dividend you might well get a yield of more than 10%. Incorrect of course.


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:

Arborbridge wrote:the only routine alteration I make at the moment is for BHP where for some reason the yield is down as around 10.xx% when it should be around 5.9% or similar. It's been like that for weeks and I've no idea why, neither am I too bothered since I take it into account.

Back in January 2019 BHP Group (BHP) had a Return of Capital - 79.529p per share. If you add that to a forecast dividend you might well get a yield of more than 10%. Incorrect of course.


Ian

OK, thanks. I guessed it must be something of the sort, but couldn't really be that concerned about it. I suppose it will work its way through next year.

Arb.

Arb, I quite agree about when forecasts are update I doubted they would have been done over Christmas though.
and Arb & Ian, I hadn't noticed the anomaly yield on BHP so I've manually updated my SS.

kempiejon wrote:Arb, I quite agree about when forecasts are update I doubted they would have been done over Christmas though.
and Arb & Ian, I hadn't noticed the anomaly yield on BHP so I've manually updated my SS.

I also never noticed the anomaly as my own Share Database spreadsheet is correct. A quick look therein showed me the Return of Capital or Special Dividend as can also be seen here

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... y?epic=BHP


Ian

Here are my numbers for the last year.

Income per unit (excluding specials), up 15 %
(income) unit value, up 5.8 %

Trailing yield (calculated as cumulative income per unit received during 2019 divided by unit value at 31/12/2019) = 5.6 %

Hypster wrote:Here are my numbers for the last year.

Income per unit (excluding specials), up 15 %
(income) unit value, up 5.8 %

Trailing yield (calculated as cumulative income per unit received during 2019 divided by unit value at 31/12/2019) = 5.6 %

A bit odd that income per unit went up so much, and unit value so little.

Seems different to what I have seen from other 2019 reports, which generally have income per unit up 4-8% and unit value 10-15%.

Just wondering!

FD

As a bit of fun, I have tabulated the income per unit increases in 2019 from a few HYPs reported on this blog.

I am showing the increase in HYP income per unit reported during 2019 (obviously where the poster has said they have unitised their HYP, so that builders and withdrawers can be compared).

The scores on the doors are:

Smautf: 42.8% (with specials), 10.7% (without specials)
SDN123: 17.8% (with specials)
Hypster: 15%
moorfield: 8.7%
Stepone: 5.2%
myself: 4.5%

So I provisionally award Smautf the HYPer of the year prize, and myself the wooden spoon!

.......unless you can show better

Happy New Year!

funduffer wrote:As a bit of fun, I have tabulated the income per unit increases in 2019 from a few HYPs reported on this blog.

I am showing the increase in HYP income per unit reported during 2019 (obviously where the poster has said they have unitised their HYP, so that builders and withdrawers can be compared).

The scores on the doors are:

Smautf: 42.8% (with specials), 10.7% (without specials)
SDN123: 17.8% (with specials)
Hypster: 15%
moorfield: 8.7%
Stepone: 5.2%
myself: 4.5%

So I provisionally award Smautf the HYPer of the year prize, and myself the wooden spoon!

.......unless you can show better

Happy New Year!

Surey more correctly the 'HYP income grower (including Specials) of the year'. Not as snappy a title I'll concede

funduffer wrote:A bit odd that income per unit went up so much, and unit value so little.

To be honest, I thought the same! It's entirely possible that I'm handling income units incorrectly. I'll go over some of the posts I used to inform my methodology to make sure I did it right.

funduffer wrote:A bit odd that income per unit went up so much, and unit value so little.


FD

My results are distorted by the take over of Greene King because this reduced the number of units near the year end. If I take the units at face value I get an increase in income of 12.7%. If I take the units prior to the GNK sale the increase is 6.6%. After GNK there were no other sales or purchases in the year.

My results are:

Income per unit (daily calculation method) 6.6%

Income unit price: up 12.8%

Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:

funduffer wrote:A bit odd that income per unit went up so much, and unit value so little.


FD

My results are distorted by the take over of Greene King because this reduced the number of units near the year end. If I take the units at face value I get an increase in income of 12.7%. If I take the units prior to the GNK sale the increase is 6.6%. After GNK there were no other sales or purchases in the year.

My results are:

Income per unit (daily calculation method) 6.6%

Income unit price: up 12.8%

Arb.

As you know I do not unitise but is the cash realised not converted into units as well? I cannot see why this value would be discounted.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:
As you know I do not unitise but is the cash realised not converted into units as well? I cannot see why this value would be discounted.

Dod

The cash is withdrawn, so the number of units falls. This usually doesn't matter too much, but GNK was quite a large holding, causing the unit fall to be noticable - therefore making the income per unit look larger than it should have been.

If calculating using accumulation units, you are correct in saying the cash would be retained and the number of units would remain the same.

Arb.

The scores on the doors are:

Smautf: 42.8% (with specials), 10.7% (without specials)
SDN123: 17.8% (with specials)
Hypster: 15%
moorfield: 8.7%
Arborbridge: 6.6% (taking out Greene King distortion)
Stepone: 5.2%
funduffer: 4.5%

My SIPP income is up 9.8% over 2018....mostly due to the BHP special, reinvestments in IMB, and new investments added (ING Group, Henderson Far East Investments, Restaurant Group), and offset by Berkeley Group's spannering around with their share buyback crapola.

Arborbridge wrote:
My results are distorted by the take over of Greene King because this reduced the number of units near the year end. If I take the units at face value I get an increase in income of 12.7%. If I take the units prior to the GNK sale the increase is 6.6%. After GNK there were no other sales or purchases in the year.

My results are:

Income per unit (daily calculation method) 6.6%

Income unit price: up 12.8%

Arb.

So, if you intend reinvesting the Greene King proceeds, you will get the opposite distortion in the current years results, won't you?

Doesn't seem to be achieving the purpose of unitising as I understood it.

Adrian