TJH Portfolio adjustment

[Arborbridge]

A quick run today does reveal some shares which are crying for attention. However, I'm reluctant to do much right now. Here they are listed in capital weight order.



My price per unit has now dropped below my 100p starting value on January 1st 2010.. That is 35% down on the most recent high values.

Arb.

[monabri]

My price per unit has now dropped below my 100p starting value on January 1st 2010.. That is 35% down on the most recent high values.

Arb.

Similar. And like you I hold HYP + ITs....

Quite depressing really ( said with a Marvin the paranoid android tone).

Oh, go on then

https://youtu.be/Eh-W8QDVA9s


Yes, I know, it's the modern one, don't talk to me about the old Marvin...

[Wizard]

My price per unit has now dropped below my 100p starting value on January 1st 2010.. That is 35% down on the most recent high values.

Arb.

Similar. And like you I hold HYP + ITs....

Quite depressing really ( said with a Marvin the paranoid android tone).

Oh, go on then

https://youtu.be/Eh-W8QDVA9s


Yes, I know, it's the modern one, don't talk to me about the old Marvin...

Brain the size of a planet and all they ask me to do is watch the value of my portfolio collapsing...

[Breelander]

Yes, I know, it's the modern one, don't talk to me about the old Marvin...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAA67a2-Klk

[tjh290633]

We march on 2 days, and the situation is much as I expected.

Top 10 by weight:

Value                           
Rank    EPIC   Weight   % Median
    1   AZN     4.57%     167.6%
    2   GSK     4.55%     167.0%
    3   ADM     4.42%     162.0%
    4   NG.     4.09%     150.2%
    5   ULVR    3.90%     142.9%
    6   DGE     3.69%     135.5%
    7   UU.     3.54%     130.0%
    8   BATS    3.54%     129.9%
    9   RIO     3.43%     125.7%
   10   SGRO    3.42%     125.6%

ADM and NG. fell a bit today, but still four above the limit I impose. I did contemplate trimming all four back by 25% and topping up the highest 4 on my list, which are not disqualified. The trouble is that so many are disqualified I have to go well down the list, and I might break some other rules, because all the top-ups would be substantial. If I limit the topup amounts, I could topup 8 shares: BLND, KGF, IMI, LGEN, CPG, SSE, PSON and TATE. The last ranks 20/35 for topping up.

Oddly, today I had equal numbers of falls and rises, so didn't share in the FTSE's rise. Let's see what the morrow brings.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

We march on 2 days, and the situation is much as I expected.

Top 10 by weight:

Value                           
Rank    EPIC   Weight   % Median
    1   AZN     4.57%     167.6%
    2   GSK     4.55%     167.0%
    3   ADM     4.42%     162.0%
    4   NG.     4.09%     150.2%
    5   ULVR    3.90%     142.9%
    6   DGE     3.69%     135.5%
    7   UU.     3.54%     130.0%
    8   BATS    3.54%     129.9%
    9   RIO     3.43%     125.7%
   10   SGRO    3.42%     125.6%

ADM and NG. fell a bit today, but still four above the limit I impose. I did contemplate trimming all four back by 25% and topping up the highest 4 on my list, which are not disqualified. The trouble is that so many are disqualified I have to go well down the list, and I might break some other rules, because all the top-ups would be substantial. If I limit the topup amounts, I could topup 8 shares: BLND, KGF, IMI, LGEN, CPG, SSE, PSON and TATE. The last ranks 20/35 for topping up.

Oddly, today I had equal numbers of falls and rises, so didn't share in the FTSE's rise. Let's see what the morrow brings.

TJH

Question: are those top for in the trimming zone more secure dividend payers than those you might top-up? With all the cut and cancellations, that seems a primary point to review - not that could be any great faith in such a review under present conditions!

Arb.

[tjh290633]

Question: are those top for in the trimming zone more secure dividend payers than those you might top-up? With all the cut and cancellations, that seems a primary point to review - not that could be any great faith in such a review under present conditions!

Of course the situation has cjanged today, but the likely candidates for topup are BLND, KGF, IMI and LGEN. Tonight the top of the weight table is:

Value                           
Rank    EPIC   Weight   % Median
    1   AZN     4.58%     160.0%
    2   GSK     4.56%     159.1%
    3   ADM     4.21%     146.9%
    4   NG.     3.95%     137.8%
    5   DGE     3.75%     131.1%
    6   ULVR    3.73%     130.4%
    7   SGRO    3.64%     127.2%
    8   RIO     3.49%     121.7%
    9   BATS    3.44%     120.1%
   10   UU.     3.28%     114.5%

You will note that ADM and NG. have dropped out of contention. AZN and GSK are entrenched. To compare the candidates with them, I can go on yield:

AZN     3.17%
GSK     5.52%
BLND    8.72%
KGF     8.58%
LGEN   11.19%
IMI     6.03%

Are they sustainable? I would think that BLND and LGEN are, KGF and IMI possibly. The potential improvement in dividend yield from a 2 for 4 swap is 17.38 to 33.42, assuming that each of the trims spawns two topups. AZN and GSK have had increased and static dividends, respectively. BLND has been increasing at about 3% p.a., LGEN at about 7% p.a., KGF was static last year, while IMI has been increasing about with inflation.

I can see at least one dividend being omitted by any company at this time.

TJH

[chris]

Hi

I'd be very surprised if BLND held their dividend. 51% in offices and 45% in retail. The retail is going to be under severe pressure and may see a few losses of businesses with associated rents. There will be some offices that will be resilient but I would have thought that you are going to see some losses there as well. With this in mind, they are going to want to preserve their cash and therefore cutting the dividend would seem to be a good way of doing this.

[dealtn]

Hi

I'd be very surprised if BLND held their dividend. 51% in offices and 45% in retail. The retail is going to be under severe pressure and may see a few losses of businesses with associated rents. There will be some offices that will be resilient but I would have thought that you are going to see some losses there as well. With this in mind, they are going to want to preserve their cash and therefore cutting the dividend would seem to be a good way of doing this.

REITS have less flexibility with their dividend decisions than other companies, which has to be taken into consideration.

[tjh290633]

I decided to act today. Last night Admiral, AstaZeneca and Glaxo wsere all well above my weight limit, so I cut them by 25% this morning, ADM at 2,174p, AZN at 6,893p and GSK at 1,463p. This gave me enough to add a new share and to do a top-up. I elected to buy PHP at 152p, at just above my median holding weight, and to top up BLND by 23% at 381p. As a result, my top-up table now looks like this (last night's prices):

Top-up          Income                     Cost                
Rank     EPIC   Rank     EPIC   % Income   Rank   Epic   % Cost
     1   MARS*       1   RIO       5.47%      1   LLOY    4.49%
     2   IMB*        2   IMB       5.44%      2   MARS    4.44%
     3   LLOY*       3   BP.       5.30%      3   WMH     4.39%
     4   AV.*        4   AV.       5.11%      4   AV.     4.33%
     5   LGEN*       5   BT.A      5.10%      5   BT.A    4.28%
     6   IMI         6   RDSB      4.91%      6   MKS     4.10%
     7   WMH*        7   LGEN      4.46%      7   RDSB    4.03%
     8   BT.A*       8   BHP       4.36%      8   BP.     4.00%
     9   RDSB*       9   LLOY      4.30%      9   GSK     3.79%
    10   MKS        10   BATS      4.09%     10   S32     3.79%
    11   BHP*       11   BLND      3.76%     11   BLND    3.70%
    12   PSON       12   ADM       3.10%     12   BHP     3.59%

As usual I have indicated the disqualified shares by an asterisk*. With the recent cuts in dividends there are rather a lot. IMI is next in line when the time comes. MKS is no longer disqualified, but I have my doubts. Pearson is coming up on the rails.

My portfolio therefore looks like this:

Value                           
Rank    EPIC   Weight   % Median
    1   SGRO    3.90%     132.1%
    2   RIO     3.75%     126.7%
    3   NG.     3.67%     124.3%
    4   DGE     3.60%     121.7%
    5   ULVR    3.50%     118.5%
    6   BP.     3.45%     116.8%
    7   BATS    3.37%     113.9%
    8   GSK     3.35%     113.4%
    9   AZN     3.35%     113.2%
   10   ADM     3.25%     109.9%
   11   UU.     3.15%     106.7%
   12   VOD     3.08%     104.1%
   13   BLND    3.07%     103.9%
   14   PHP     3.04%     102.8%
   15   SSE     2.99%     101.1%
   16   BHP     2.98%     100.9%
   17   BT.A    2.97%     100.4%
   18   RDSB    2.96%     100.0%
   19   BA.     2.89%      98.0%
   20   RB.     2.81%      95.1%
   21   SMDS    2.81%      95.0%
   22   TATE    2.81%      94.9%
   23   LGEN    2.77%      93.7%
   24   AV.     2.71%      91.6%
   25   TW.     2.70%      91.3%
   26   KGF     2.59%      87.6%
   27   S32     2.55%      86.3%
   28   IMB     2.37%      80.1%
   29   LLOY    2.29%      77.6%
   30   PSON    2.12%      71.9%
   31   CPG     2.11%      71.3%
   32   IMI     2.09%      70.9%
   33   TSCO    2.08%      70.5%
   34   MKS     1.53%      51.7%
   35   WMH     1.36%      46.0%
   36   MARS    1.28%      43.4%

The three trimmed shares are clustered in positions 8, 9 and 10. PHP and BLND are just above the median.

TJH

[Wizard]

I decided to act today. Last night Admiral, AstaZeneca and Glaxo wsere all well above my weight limit, so I cut them by 25% this morning, ADM at 2,174p, AZN at 6,893p and GSK at 1,463p. This gave me enough to add a new share and to do a top-up. I elected to buy PHP at 152p, at just above my median holding weight, and to top up BLND by 23% at 381p...

If I recall correctly PHP is a pretty low yielder by HYP standards. Is this income diluting?

[tjh290633]

I decided to act today. Last night Admiral, AstaZeneca and Glaxo wsere all well above my weight limit, so I cut them by 25% this morning, ADM at 2,174p, AZN at 6,893p and GSK at 1,463p. This gave me enough to add a new share and to do a top-up. I elected to buy PHP at 152p, at just above my median holding weight, and to top up BLND by 23% at 381p...

If I recall correctly PHP is a pretty low yielder by HYP standards. Is this income diluting?

The yield is higher than that of AZN. Lower than GSK and ADM. BLND is higher than all of them. Probably little difference.

TJH

[Dod101]

I decided to act today. Last night Admiral, AstaZeneca and Glaxo wsere all well above my weight limit, so I cut them by 25% this morning, ADM at 2,174p, AZN at 6,893p and GSK at 1,463p. This gave me enough to add a new share and to do a top-up. I elected to buy PHP at 152p, at just above my median holding weight, and to top up BLND by 23% at 381p...

If I recall correctly PHP is a pretty low yielder by HYP standards. Is this income diluting?

TJH tells us on another thread that PHP is yielding 3.9% which is more than it has for some time, but its price has held up well in the current situation. I have held it for some years and it has been good for me. I think that unlike some, its dividend is not in doubt and it is a REIT. The lower yield is the price I pay for more security. And British Land has a higher yield for good reason.

I would not be playing around with buys and sells in this ever changing landscape as TJH is doing. I think this is the time to sit tight.

Dod

[Dod101]

I should have added that PHP is not very far off its highest price ever. I see it closed at around £1.53 today and its peak was just over £1.60 in February. Six months ago it could have been bought for around £1.30 where it had sat for a long while.

At least as good as a certain IT!

Dod

[Wizard]

I decided to act today. Last night Admiral, AstaZeneca and Glaxo wsere all well above my weight limit, so I cut them by 25% this morning, ADM at 2,174p, AZN at 6,893p and GSK at 1,463p. This gave me enough to add a new share and to do a top-up. I elected to buy PHP at 152p, at just above my median holding weight, and to top up BLND by 23% at 381p...

If I recall correctly PHP is a pretty low yielder by HYP standards. Is this income diluting?

The yield is higher than that of AZN. Lower than GSK and ADM. BLND is higher than all of them. Probably little difference.

TJH

Unfortunate timing re BLND

[Arborbridge]

If I recall correctly PHP is a pretty low yielder by HYP standards. Is this income diluting?

The yield is higher than that of AZN. Lower than GSK and ADM. BLND is higher than all of them. Probably little difference.

TJH

Unfortunate timing re BLND

There's me thinking I'm lucky to have only had one cut so far And BLND was on my topup list too....I was even thinking of doing so today, but took my finger off the button.

[Dod101]

Hi

I'd be very surprised if BLND held their dividend. 51% in offices and 45% in retail. The retail is going to be under severe pressure and may see a few losses of businesses with associated rents. There will be some offices that will be resilient but I would have thought that you are going to see some losses there as well. With this in mind, they are going to want to preserve their cash and therefore cutting the dividend would seem to be a good way of doing this.

Well called Chris. So much for Strategic Ignorance. It was I always thought since the high street fall out, a weak business anyway.

Dod

[Dod101]

Lots of red ink today probably caused by that B Land cull of their dividend. I think it is most unwise to be continually adjusting one's portfolio in the manner that TJH is doing in current conditions. It is a costly exercise in terms of trading costs and can as we are seeing in other ways as well.

Simply sit tight.

Dod

[tjh290633]

Unfortunate timing re BLND

I hadn't even realised that they were due to go XD today, so at least we are spared a price drop on that account. Still down a lot, regardless. Peerhaps PHP's yield is not that bad after all.

TJH