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HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

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idpickering
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HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350908

Postby idpickering » October 27th, 2020, 5:44 am

Financial performance (vs. 3Q19)
• Reported profit after tax down 46% to $2.0bn and reported profit before tax down 36% to $3.1bn, mainly from lower
revenue. Results in 3Q20 included our share of an impairment of goodwill by our associate, The Saudi British Bank ('SABB'), of $0.5bn.
Adjusted profit before tax down 21% to $4.3bn.
• Our operations in Asia continued to perform resiliently with reported profit before tax in 3Q20 of $3.2bn, despite interest
rate headwinds.
• Reported revenue down 11% to $11.9bn, reflecting the impact of interest rate reductions on our deposit franchises across all
global businesses, partly offset by favourable market impacts in life insurance manufacturing. Reported revenue was also partly offset
by a favourable movement in credit and funding valuation adjustments and higher revenue in Global Markets.
• Net interest margin ('NIM') of 1.20%, down 36 basis points ('bps') from 3Q19. NIM was down 13bps from 2Q20, reflecting
the continuing impact of interest rate reductions due to the Covid-19 outbreak.
• Reported expected credit losses and other credit impairment charges (‘ECL’) down $0.1bn to $0.8bn. The 3Q20 charge
reflected a stabilisation of the forward economic outlook from 2Q20, while wholesale stage 3 charges were in part offset by increased
releases related to historical default cases.
• Reported operating expenses down 1% and adjusted operating expenses down 3%, despite continued investment, due to
the impact of our cost-saving initiatives, reduced discretionary expenditure and a lower performance-related pay accrual.
• Common equity tier 1 capital (‘CET1’) ratio of 15.6%, up 0.6% from 15.0% at 2Q20, reflecting a decrease in RWAs (on a
constant currency basis), capital generation through profits and foreign currency translation differences.

And later on dividends;

Based on our results for 2020 and our forecasts for 2021, the Board will consider whether to pay a conservative dividend for
2020. Any such dividend would be dependent on the economic outlook in early 2021, and be subject to regulatory consultation. A
final determination is expected to be made and communicated in February 2021 with our 2020 full-year results. We also expect to
communicate our revised policy for dividends for 2021 and beyond at the same time.


Noel Quinn, Group Chief Executive, said:

“These were promising results against a backdrop of the continuing impacts of Covid-19 on the global economy. I'm pleased with the
significantly lower credit losses in the quarter, and we are moving at pace to adapt our business model to a protracted low interest rate
environment. We are accelerating the transformation of the Group, moving our focus from interest-rate sensitive business lines towards
fee-generating businesses, and further reducing our operating costs. We also intend to increase our rate of investment in Asia,
particularly in wealth, the Greater Bay Area, south Asia, trade finance and sustainable finance.
The Group’s capital and liquidity ratios strengthened further in the quarter despite the challenging economic conditions. A decision on
whether to pay a dividend for the 2020 financial year will depend on economic conditions in early 2021, and be subject to regulatory
consultation. We will seek to pay a conservative dividend if circumstances allow.”


Item downloadable here; https://www.hsbc.com/investors/results- ... ouncements

nb The share rose 5% on Hong Kong market on this release.

Ian.

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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350925

Postby Arborbridge » October 27th, 2020, 7:15 am

"conservative dividend" sounds really rather downbeat :(

I woke up thinking I might dump HSBC as the dividend ordeal seems to be stretching out for what counts as "quite a long time". A HYPer should be more patient than this, but there are ways I can bring in cash sooner than "sometime maybe, and even then not much (i.e. conservative)".

A pickerable dilemma which I know some of you have already reconciled by moving on.

Arb.

idpickering
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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350928

Postby idpickering » October 27th, 2020, 7:26 am

Arborbridge wrote:"conservative dividend" sounds really rather downbeat :(

I woke up thinking I might dump HSBC as the dividend ordeal seems to be stretching out for what counts as "quite a long time". A HYPer should be more patient than this, but there are ways I can bring in cash sooner than "sometime maybe, and even then not much (i.e. conservative)".

A pickerable dilemma which I know some of you have already reconciled by moving on.

Arb.


Yep, I hear you Arb and pretty much agree with your comments. I mentioned over on the Company News Board that I was maintaining a cautious view on HSBC shares, and that this announcement wouldn't tempt me back in. I also said, one doesn't have to have a finger in every pie (diworsification). They were a great HYP share, but imho, not so much nowadays. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Ian.

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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350931

Postby Dod101 » October 27th, 2020, 8:21 am

Arborbridge wrote:"conservative dividend" sounds really rather downbeat :(

I woke up thinking I might dump HSBC as the dividend ordeal seems to be stretching out for what counts as "quite a long time". A HYPer should be more patient than this, but there are ways I can bring in cash sooner than "sometime maybe, and even then not much (i.e. conservative)".

A pickerable dilemma which I know some of you have already reconciled by moving on.

Arb.


The share price is up over 5% in London. This is surely not the time to be moving on having held on all this time. Mind you even if there is a Final announced in February, when are we going to see it? Not until April I would guess, so we have another six months to wait.

Dod

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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350945

Postby Arborbridge » October 27th, 2020, 9:24 am

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:"conservative dividend" sounds really rather downbeat :(

I woke up thinking I might dump HSBC as the dividend ordeal seems to be stretching out for what counts as "quite a long time". A HYPer should be more patient than this, but there are ways I can bring in cash sooner than "sometime maybe, and even then not much (i.e. conservative)".

A pickerable dilemma which I know some of you have already reconciled by moving on.

Arb.


Yep, I hear you Arb and pretty much agree with your comments. I mentioned over on the Company News Board that I was maintaining a cautious view on HSBC shares, and that this announcement wouldn't tempt me back in. I also said, one doesn't have to have a finger in every pie (diworsification). They were a great HYP share, but imho, not so much nowadays. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Ian.


Diworsification is a movable feast! A year or two back, HSBC was seen as one of the stalwarts - even Dod accepted it as being a good'un and he is quite hard to please ;)

HYPers definitely need to have a Zen approach: a restless spirit is no use. Or as Luni used to say, doing something for the sake of doing something.
I wonder if he still adheres to his strictly no sale policy?

Arb.

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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350974

Postby kempiejon » October 27th, 2020, 10:47 am

HSBC has been in my HYP for about 6 years having recovered a 5 year increasing dividend history post 2008 cut. I added a couple of times at yields above 7%. Unsurprisingly, since I bought, that rate of increase has stalled. They'll stay in the portfolio but I can't seen any reason to buy again

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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#350981

Postby Dod101 » October 27th, 2020, 11:05 am

They are in demand this morning at over £3.40. That's about 6% up. Amazing really because some announcement on the dividend was almost certain surely? Not even firm as yet.

Dod

idpickering
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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#351005

Postby idpickering » October 27th, 2020, 11:41 am

Dod101 wrote:They are in demand this morning at over £3.40. That's about 6% up. Amazing really because some announcement on the dividend was almost certain surely? Not even firm as yet.

Dod


I'm with you on your comment Dod, particularly your second sentence. Nothing's set in stone. I'd prefer more certainty from HSBC before I'd even consider buying back in.

Ian.

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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#351020

Postby Dod101 » October 27th, 2020, 11:54 am

idpickering wrote:
Dod101 wrote:They are in demand this morning at over £3.40. That's about 6% up. Amazing really because some announcement on the dividend was almost certain surely? Not even firm as yet.

Dod


I'm with you on your comment Dod, particularly your second sentence. Nothing's set in stone. I'd prefer more certainty from HSBC before I'd even consider buying back in.


Well we can all read into statements what we want. Wait and you will most likely pay more if you wait. I would almost put money on it that the dividend will be restored in February but I have no idea at what level. Will we be lucky enough to get the usual final of 21 cents? That would be conservative if for the year 2020 but their wording this morning is ambiguous and that would not be considered a conservative final.

We will see in due course.

Dod

idpickering
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Re: HSBC 3Q20 EARNINGS RELEASE (includes a comment on dividends)

#351040

Postby idpickering » October 27th, 2020, 12:49 pm

Dod101 wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Dod101 wrote:They are in demand this morning at over £3.40. That's about 6% up. Amazing really because some announcement on the dividend was almost certain surely? Not even firm as yet.

Dod


I'm with you on your comment Dod, particularly your second sentence. Nothing's set in stone. I'd prefer more certainty from HSBC before I'd even consider buying back in.


Well we can all read into statements what we want. Wait and you will most likely pay more if you wait. I would almost put money on it that the dividend will be restored in February but I have no idea at what level. Will we be lucky enough to get the usual final of 21 cents? That would be conservative if for the year 2020 but their wording this morning is ambiguous and that would not be considered a conservative final.

We will see in due course.

Dod


Wise words from you Dod as usual, thank you. There is a temptation to tuck some of their shares away tbh. We shall see indeed, on both counts.

Ian.


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