Itsallaguess wrote:Dod101 wrote:
Would you forecasters like to give an indication of your forecast for HSBC's restored dividend, if any?
The range of possibilities is far too wide to make any forecast and the only sensible one is nil, that is the same as for 2020.
We may get a bit more and my method will treat that as a nice bonus but I do not fuss over it as I assume a forecaster must.
[
Note -
the post below was posted on November 7th, 2020]
Sharecast is currently showing a Forecast Yield for HSBA of 1.7% -
https://www.sharecast.com/equity/HSBC_HoldingsThere's no 'fuss' in getting that data - it's all done automatically for many of us who use that facility, so overplaying the 'fuss' card is actually another red-herring Dod - there's no 'fuss' in using these broker-forecasts, as the brokers do all the 'fussing' for us as part of their day-job in talking to the companies themselves, and it's clear from hearing how the 'non-forecasters' are doing things on this thread that there's actually a lot more 'fuss' in those methods in terms of manual-interventions and data-gathering than using this freely available broker-forecast data...
Anyway, I think it's a good opportunity to test our different theories on something like HSBA, so at a current price of 337.8p, and a Sharecast Forward Yield of 1.7%, they are proposing a total dividend in the next 12-month period of around 5.74p, whereas you're manually assuming there will be no dividends paid in the next 12 months, so it'll be an interesting exercise to re-visit this thread later next year.
I thought it might be worth revisiting this topic now that HSBA have recently declared their interim results, so the 12-month period up to November 2021 discussed in the above posts should now be covered by the available data.
In November 2020, Sharecast were showing a Forecast Yield for HSBA of 1.7%, which equated against a share price of 337.8p at that time to provice
forecast dividend of around 5.74p over the following 12-month period up to November 2021.
The only dividend declared during that period, as far as I'm aware, has been from the most recent interims, which has been declared at $0.07 per share -
• The Board has announced an interim dividend for 1H21 of $0.07 per ordinary share, to be paid in cash with no scrip alternative.https://www.investegate.co.uk/hsbc-holdings-plc--hsba-/rns/half-year-report---part-1-of-3/202108021634132692H/If we look at the sterling equivalent based on current exchange-rates, which might change of course, that currently comes out at around 5p per share in sterling terms, so we can see that the
Sharecast Forecast Yield of 1.7% back in November of last year, for the coming 12-month period, which equated to around 5.74p per share at that time, isn't all that far away from the current exchange-rated 5p per share that's been declared...
If we compare that fairly close and useful forecast against your assumption that
nothing at all would be paid, does it go any way to convince you that the type of Forecast Yield data that's readily available using these processes might be more useful and accurate than the assumption that you made, which has been shown to be far wider of the actual delivered result?
Cheers,
Itsallaguess