Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
Forum rules
Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
spiderbill
Lemon Slice
Posts: 543
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:12 am
Has thanked: 156 times
Been thanked: 182 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#363691

Postby spiderbill » December 7th, 2020, 12:18 pm

I add a yearly block on the right of the HYPTUSS Dividend tab which records in six 2-month segments the dividends received along with totals for each share for the year and totals for all shares for ther period.

At the end of the year I copy that year into a new block to forecast the following year and I adjust by the record of the company to what I think it'll produce (Glaxo is dead easy!). I cross-check that against the Sharecast forward estimate (pulled in from the Portfolio tab) as a sanity check. If I buy a new share or top up an existing one I adjust accordingly. It's easier than it looks when written down and it excercises the brain to consider how the companies are doing and whether I want to make any changes.

Obviously this year was a little different and a lot of figures had to be zeroed while dividends were halted, but that was exceptional and the forecasts now seem to be pretty close to my own provisional estimates for next year, so barring political upheaval or further pandemic disaster I think that generally yes, we can believe the forecasts a bit more now.

As for the effects of the dividends that were stopped or reduced, my total for 2019 was about £7,440, 2020 saw it reduced to an expected £5,270, while the projection for 2021 is currently £6,750 (assuming a partial resumption for Taylor Wimpey, a modest one for Lloyds, and a decent one for HSBC, the latter being perhaps optimistic. I'm not expecting anything from Marston or Petrofac.)

cheers
Spiderbill

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#363744

Postby tjh290633 » December 7th, 2020, 4:34 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Simple? Both sound a bit more effort than I would like to make regularly :D

How often do you update the HYP TUSS?

I bet it is more often than I do for my "Forthcoming Dividends" table.

TJH

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#363777

Postby Arborbridge » December 7th, 2020, 6:22 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Simple? Both sound a bit more effort than I would like to make regularly :D

How often do you update the HYP TUSS?

I bet it is more often than I do for my "Forthcoming Dividends" table.

TJH


In normal circumstances as often as I like, because it does it at the push of a button. It's slightly longer now if I want an "accurate" figure, but there are now only ten seriously erroneous yields returned, of which three I replace with "zero" which required no calculation. Now the forecasts are down to the 10% region of error, it will soon not be worth doing other than "click the button" again unless the requirement is critical (i.e. checking a buy or sell situation).


It is Un piece de gateau, and Life's too short to do it your way.

Arb.

CryptoPlankton
Lemon Slice
Posts: 786
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1544 times
Been thanked: 873 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#363785

Postby CryptoPlankton » December 7th, 2020, 6:54 pm

Arborbridge wrote:It is Un piece de gateau, and Life's too short to do it your way.

Arb.

All the morceau as it's only a forecast... :)

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#363816

Postby Arborbridge » December 7th, 2020, 9:31 pm

CryptoPlankton wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:It is Un piece de gateau, and Life's too short to do it your way.

Arb.

All the morceau as it's only a forecast... :)


:) Of course.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#371109

Postby Arborbridge » December 30th, 2020, 9:30 am

The raw forecast income from my HYPTUSS run today is 5.72p per unit, whereas plugging in my own corrections brings this down to 5.44. This difference of under 5% suggests to me that for a rough and ready check at the portfolio level, the HYPTUSS forecast is almost back to normal.

Clearly, if one is contemplating a single share, caution is still advised: I refer here only to the portfolio outlook. HYPTUSS now functions well as a ranking machine for the starting point for topups.

Arb.

funduffer
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1330
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:11 pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 832 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377100

Postby funduffer » January 14th, 2021, 2:28 pm

Since I started this thread in November, the forecast dividends for my 2 bank shares, HSBC and LLoyds have risen as follows:

HSBC: from 2% to 4.9%
Lloyds: from 1.4% to 4.6%

Increasing confidence of banks resuming dividends at a decent level.

FD

johnhemming
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3858
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:13 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 609 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377106

Postby johnhemming » January 14th, 2021, 2:36 pm

Stockopedia have similar figures (slightly less for HSBC). Natwest is 4.17, Secure Trust oddly is 0%. Barclays is 3.56

My view is probably for 2020 the banks over the year will not have lost anything if much and probably made a profit. This quarter will also be quite bad with small profit, but after that things should pick up.

I would also expect 2022 to get back to normal with share prices around or above NAV for banks like Lloyds. They could go higher now with Brexit uncertainty cleared.

I am long in banks.

Dod101
The full Lemon
Posts: 16629
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 4343 times
Been thanked: 7534 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377127

Postby Dod101 » January 14th, 2021, 3:09 pm

funduffer wrote:Since I started this thread in November, the forecast dividends for my 2 bank shares, HSBC and LLoyds have risen as follows:

HSBC: from 2% to 4.9%
Lloyds: from 1.4% to 4.6%

Increasing confidence of banks resuming dividends at a decent level.

FD


Well not too long to wait. HSBC 's Finals for 2020 are announced on 23 February. I can't be bothered with speculation. Just wait for the announcement but the numbers you quote would be fine by me although obviously well down from where they were.

Dod

monabri
Lemon Half
Posts: 8396
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 1539 times
Been thanked: 3428 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377138

Postby monabri » January 14th, 2021, 3:23 pm

funduffer wrote:Since I started this thread in November, the forecast dividends for my 2 bank shares, HSBC and LLoyds have risen as follows:

HSBC: from 2% to 4.9%
Lloyds: from 1.4% to 4.6%

Increasing confidence of banks resuming dividends at a decent level.

FD



4.9% on HSBA equates to ~20p a year based on current share price (I'd pencilled in 16p). Still a long way down from 51cents a year :cry:

(My "pencilling in" was based on re-instatement at an attractive yield of 5% based on a slightly sub-400p a share. I just hope that the dividend can be raised at a reasonable level (over RPI) going forward.).
Last edited by monabri on January 14th, 2021, 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377140

Postby Arborbridge » January 14th, 2021, 3:24 pm

monabri wrote:
funduffer wrote:Since I started this thread in November, the forecast dividends for my 2 bank shares, HSBC and LLoyds have risen as follows:

HSBC: from 2% to 4.9%
Lloyds: from 1.4% to 4.6%

Increasing confidence of banks resuming dividends at a decent level.

FD



4.9% on HSBA equates to ~20p a year based on current share price (I'd pencilled in 16p). Still a long way down from 51cents a year :cry:


And a long way up from zero :)

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377167

Postby tjh290633 » January 14th, 2021, 4:24 pm

funduffer wrote:Since I started this thread in November, the forecast dividends for my 2 bank shares, HSBC and LLoyds have risen as follows:

HSBC: from 2% to 4.9%
Lloyds: from 1.4% to 4.6%

Increasing confidence of banks resuming dividends at a decent level.

FD

Wait till you see the whites of their eyes. Forecasts or hopefulness? Wishful thinking or research?

TJH

funduffer
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1330
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:11 pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 832 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#377175

Postby funduffer » January 14th, 2021, 4:41 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
funduffer wrote:Since I started this thread in November, the forecast dividends for my 2 bank shares, HSBC and LLoyds have risen as follows:

HSBC: from 2% to 4.9%
Lloyds: from 1.4% to 4.6%

Increasing confidence of banks resuming dividends at a decent level.

FD

Wait till you see the whites of their eyes. Forecasts or hopefulness? Wishful thinking or research?

TJH

Enough for me to carry on holding.

Not enough for me to top up though.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405056

Postby Arborbridge » April 18th, 2021, 10:11 am

A few months have passed since we last looked at this topic - at least in this thread. Time for an update from me, perhaps. Below I show a chart giving how the forecast income of my HYP has changed - working straight from the HYPTUSS output - that's the pink line. The yellow line shows the HYPTUSS forecast plus some alterations of my own based on what company news I have managed to pick up. The third line - dark blue - is my income unit price which shows agreeable recovery.

Image

As the difference between the HYPTUSS forecast and my modified forecast is now only 3.3% I believe at the porfolio level I can stop worrying about any difference. 3% error is lower than I would expect in an average year, so I deem this acceptable for my budgetary purposes.

My current answer to the question posed in the thread is: "yes - at the portfolio level but with the usual pinch of salt." 8-) ;)

Arb.

GoSeigen
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4350
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:14 pm
Has thanked: 1590 times
Been thanked: 1579 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405062

Postby GoSeigen » April 18th, 2021, 10:25 am

Arborbridge wrote:A few months have passed since we last looked at this topic - at least in this thread. Time for an update from me, perhaps. Below I show a chart giving how the forecast income of my HYP has changed - working straight from the HYPTUSS output - that's the pink line. The yellow line shows the HYPTUSS forecast plus some alterations of my own based on what company news I have managed to pick up. The third line - dark blue - is my income unit price which shows agreeable recovery.

Image

As the difference between the HYPTUSS forecast and my modified forecast is now only 3.3% I believe at the porfolio level I can stop worrying about any difference. 3% error is lower than I would expect in an average year, so I deem this acceptable for my budgetary purposes.

My current answer to the question posed in the thread is: "yes - at the portfolio level but with the usual pinch of salt." 8-) ;)

Arb.


Well as I commented earlier, forecasts are a trailing indicator. This can be seen clearly in your graph where both the forecast curves trail the actual blue outcome curve significantly.

GS

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405069

Postby Arborbridge » April 18th, 2021, 10:40 am

GoSeigen wrote:Well as I commented earlier, forecasts are a trailing indicator. This can be seen clearly in your graph where both the forecast curves trail the actual blue outcome curve significantly.

GS


Sorry if I mislead you - the blue curve is not the income outcome. It is the capital price for income units.

As regards income per unit results, I only have quarterly numbers immediately to hand.

Arb.
income outcome :lol:

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405092

Postby tjh290633 » April 18th, 2021, 11:53 am

I am currently showing an expected increase on last year of about 19% in income, yield is slightly down at 3.72%, but the capital value is considerably higher than at 5th April 2020, reflecting market movement. The yield at that date was 6.29%, before the major reduction in dividends.

I am working on historic data, of course, assuming that last year's dividend will be repeated. I am hoping that some will be either reinstated or increased. A lot of Quarterly payers report during the week after next.

TJH

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10372
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3603 times
Been thanked: 5230 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405098

Postby Arborbridge » April 18th, 2021, 12:41 pm

tjh290633 wrote:I am currently showing an expected increase on last year of about 19% in income, yield is slightly down at 3.72%, but the capital value is considerably higher than at 5th April 2020, reflecting market movement. The yield at that date was 6.29%, before the major reduction in dividends.

I am working on historic data, of course, assuming that last year's dividend will be repeated. I am hoping that some will be either reinstated or increased. A lot of Quarterly payers report during the week after next.

TJH


If I take the corrected forecast on this date one year ago and compare with now, the result is that income per unit is expected to be 12% higher in the coming year. Hopefully , this will prove pessimistic.

My corrected forecast* from a year ago proved to be correct within 3.1% as it turned out.

* that is, HYPTUSS forecast but with my corrections added in - allowing for known alterartions at that time.
Arb.

Alaric
Lemon Half
Posts: 6035
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:05 am
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 1400 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405121

Postby Alaric » April 18th, 2021, 1:45 pm

The FTSE 100 yield (trailing) on the dividenddata site is now showing as 3%

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ld&order=1

The hit list of shares above 3% (includes those where dividends have been cut)


    IMB Imperial Brands Tobacco £14,971.91 8.70%
    MNG M&G Investment Banking and Brokerage Services £5,751.09 8.24%
    EVR Evraz Industrial Metals and Mining £9,271.70 7.96%
    BATS British American Tobacco Tobacco £66,567.07 7.43%
    PSN Persimmon Household Goods and Home Construction £10,214.00 7.34%
    LGEN Legal & General Group Life Insurance £16,649.53 6.30%
    BP. BP Oil, Gas and Coal £61,644.84 6.27% (5.02%)
    PHNX Phoenix Group Holdings Life Insurance £7,592.48 6.25%
    POLY Polymetal International Precious Metals and Mining £7,348.64 5.99%
    GSK GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology £67,741.48 5.94%
    VOD Vodafone Telecommunications Service Providers £38,064.72 5.77%
    RIO Rio Tinto Industrial Metals and Mining £75,534.87 5.55%
    NG. National Grid Gas, Water and Multi-utilities £32,025.10 5.43%
    SSE SSE Electricity £15,547.95 5.39%
    AV. Aviva Life Insurance £16,163.99 5.10%
    BHP BHP Group Industrial Metals and Mining £47,299.48 5.04%
    SLA Standard Life Aberdeen Investment Banking and Brokerage Services £6,315.12 5.04%
    BA. BAE Systems Aerospace and Defense £16,822.61 4.54%
    UU. United Utilities Group Gas, Water and Multi-utilities £6,527.17 4.47%
    SBRY Sainsbury (J) Personal Care, Drug and Grocery Stores £5,554.92 4.22%
    SVT Severn Trent Gas, Water and Multi-utilities £5,807.29 4.14%
    TSCO Tesco Personal Care, Drug and Grocery Stores £17,926.50 3.95%
    ADM Admiral Group Non-life Insurance £9,504.51 3.71%
    RDSB Royal Dutch Shell B Oil, Gas and Coal £50,041.77 3.50%
    ULVR Unilever Personal Care, Drug and Grocery Stores £109,477.33 3.45%
    RDSA Royal Dutch Shell A Oil, Gas and Coal £57,939.96 3.34%
    SDR Schroders Investment Banking and Brokerage Services £8,184.32 3.15%

GrahamPlatt
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2059
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:40 am
Has thanked: 1032 times
Been thanked: 824 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405136

Postby GrahamPlatt » April 18th, 2021, 2:54 pm

Not a bad selection that. A portfolio held as weighted by MCP would be yielding a shade over 5%


Return to “HYP Practical (See Group Guidelines)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests