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Interserve - £90M write down

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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Bouleversee
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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#81084

Postby Bouleversee » September 14th, 2017, 2:16 pm

minerjoe wrote:If you bought in 2014 you have lost 87% of the value....

Still, might be worth picking up now if you are a bit of a contrarian - no dividends anytime soon, but maybe a recovery value play. PFG a perfect example of buying at the bottom


I can't remember when I bought and can't be bothered to check; I seem to remember topping up after the first fall; not very clever. All I know is that my broker screen tells me that I have lost 88.1% of my investment, i.e. £8,431.98 to be precise. And that's on top of all my other service sector losses. Not funny, especially as my husband also had a holding which was transferred to my ISA yesterday. I can't say I feel tempted to buy more since the contrarian view didn't pay off last time. I am incapable of assessing whether the latest fall is justified or overdone so will just put my head in the sand.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#81103

Postby monabri » September 14th, 2017, 3:39 pm

Bouleversee
And to think that VCP is now 5 X IRV by market cap..... complete nonsense.!
monabri

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#81104

Postby Bouleversee » September 14th, 2017, 3:48 pm

monabri wrote:Bouleversee
And to think that VCP is now 5 X IRV by market cap..... complete nonsense.!
monabri


Crazy, isn't it? Up over £47k on that one and they cost me nothing as the special div. covered purchase costs. Pity they are not in my iSA where all the wretched losses are. OT here, however.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#81929

Postby Bouleversee » September 19th, 2017, 12:13 am

S.P. up over 25% today. Presumably due to this:


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-inters ... sinessNews

Not sure that the news fills me with confidence. I seem to remember losing money on Premier Farnell as well.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#81953

Postby Dod1010 » September 19th, 2017, 7:33 am

Whilst I can sympathise with those who have lost on Interserve, this is the HYP Practical Board. Why not just get out as support service companies (in all their guises) have proved themselves not to be suitable candidates for a HYP?

Just think of those which have failed the basic HYP test of a steady and increasing dividend? More than almost any other sector and in fact very few I think that have proved to be out and out steady performers.

Dod

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82008

Postby Bouleversee » September 19th, 2017, 11:06 am

Dod1010 wrote:Whilst I can sympathise with those who have lost on Interserve, this is the HYP Practical Board. Why not just get out as support service companies (in all their guises) have proved themselves not to be suitable candidates for a HYP?

Just think of those which have failed the basic HYP test of a steady and increasing dividend? More than almost any other sector and in fact very few I think that have proved to be out and out steady performers.

Dod


It is easy to say that now, Dod, but for many years IRV performed extremely well, paid a good dividend, increased it every year, and achieved excellent capital growth, admittedly with a few ups and downs on the way. See: https://dividendplanet.com/interserve-i ... tory-yield. Are you saying it was never a suitable HYP share? As for getting out, when a share plummets as IRV did because of a major cock-up, I wouldn't agree that the best move is to exit without waiting for the dust to settle and trying to see which way the wind is blowing. It may, with hindsight, turn out that that would have been the best course of action but it hardly fits with HYP philosophy and it could just as easily turn out to be an over-reaction. IRV's share price was 199.25p on 30.1.09 and had risen to 730p by 31.5.14, by which time my family's holdings had risen to a large sum, most of which on paper disappeared with the profit warning. Yes, it had decreased gradually, with ups and downs on the way, over the past couple of years but my priorities lay elsewhere during that time and in any case HYPers are not supposed to worry about the share price, are they, so long as the divs. keep coming in?

Clearly they are not a HYP buy at the moment but I doubt I am the only remaining holder on TLF and I don't see what is not HYP practical about drawing attention to announcements which have affected or might affect not only the share price, possibly providing an opportunity to exit, but the long term recovery prospects and might make those who have already lost most of their investment decide to risk hanging on in the hope of a slow climb back and a return to dividends. It has had ups and downs over the years and with the right management might recover but if it doesn't I haven't much more to lose anyway so will probably hang on. IMHO till it goes bust or gets taken over for peanuts, assuming it was at one point a HYP candidate (it has certainly been discussed on here by others) one or other of the HYP boards (perhaps it should be strategy) should continue to provide a forum. You have only to skip my posts if not interested. Can someone please explain where practical stops and strategy begins. I should have thought they were intertwined myself.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82013

Postby Dod1010 » September 19th, 2017, 11:39 am

Bouleversee

I appreciate that my comments are going to look like being wise after the event but just like supermarkets since the financial crisis, I have never thought support services were shares suitable for a HYP. I certainly have never held them.

Interserve, Carillion, G4S and others are prime examples.

If you want to buy and hold HYP shares for the long term there are a relatively small number (15/20 or so) of shares which are suitable. Otherwise I guess just go for ITs.

Anyway I am now verging on Strategy so I will leave it there.

Dod

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82028

Postby monabri » September 19th, 2017, 12:25 pm

I side with Bouleversee - we've made our bed and the choice, capital loss wise, is to lie in it and hope for better days!

We make our choices based on the evidence we have. We don't always seem to have the full story nor the skill-set to see that we have had the wool pulled over our eyes (e.g. Carillion) so maybe we should pay more attention to shorting activities.

I'm not happy about recent events at IRV and I don't just mean the share price fall of 50% in 1 day. I was hoping for a much better update and a resumption of dividends (previous CEO said a "temporary divi suspension"). The sequence of events is as follows:-

-New CEO sets out her future bonus scheme based on performance
-New CEO issues a really dire trading update and share price falls 50%
-(does that point define the basis for her bonus scheme I wonder?)
-Hubby buys 60+ thousand shares the next day.

I I were to deploy the famous Dod "sniff test" I think I wouldn't be smelling roses!

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82029

Postby Bouleversee » September 19th, 2017, 12:32 pm

Dod1010 wrote:Bouleversee

I appreciate that my comments are going to look like being wise after the event but just like supermarkets since the financial crisis, I have never thought support services were shares suitable for a HYP. I certainly have never held them.

Interserve, Carillion, G4S and others are prime examples.

If you want to buy and hold HYP shares for the long term there are a relatively small number (15/20 or so) of shares which are suitable. Otherwise I guess just go for ITs.

Anyway I am now verging on Strategy so I will leave it there.

Dod


So which shares are they, then, Dod?

Incidentally, I bought IRV long before I'd heard of HYP per se and found the MF then TLF boards. I bought just because I thought they were a good investment, which they were for many years till management bit off more than they could chew and outsourcing became outsourced.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82033

Postby Arborbridge » September 19th, 2017, 12:52 pm

I appreciate that my comments are going to look like being wise after the event




Yes, Dod - they do because they are :lol:

I dare say, however, if you had said something before the event rather than afterwards, few would have taken any action.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82034

Postby Arborbridge » September 19th, 2017, 1:01 pm

So which shares are they, then, Dod?


Perhaps we shall have a clear answer to this, and we should take care to bookmark the post for future reference :)

Arb

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82036

Postby Dod1010 » September 19th, 2017, 1:24 pm

Most, who have any interest in the matter, know my limited number of HYP shares, and their identity, but here goes again (in no particular order but at this time Unilever is easily my biggest holding followed by HSBC)

Legal & General
Unilever
Shell
Imperial Brands
BATS
HSBC
SSE
Primary Health Properties
Phoenix Group
Chesnara
National Grid
Vodafone
Astra Zeneca
Glaxo
Schroder N/V
Segro
British Land

In addition, I count Murray International, Murray Income and Edinburgh ITs as part of my HYP and these three give me a further spread. I have no supermarkets nor support services because I do not much like either sector. No one need pay any attention to me or what I say nor would I expect them to, but I think these 17 shares, plus a few more I have no doubt, are true HYP shares. I have held at least 7 of them (L & G, Unilever, Shell, Imps, BATS, HSBC and SSE plus Edinburgh IT) for well over 20 years and the only one I have traded is I think HSBC, and I have the paper certs to prove it!

Dod

They all pass my test of culture and the Directors in all cases, whilst often well paid, have the interests of the shareholders well to the forefront.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82042

Postby Arborbridge » September 19th, 2017, 1:52 pm

Dod,

Thank you for courageously putting into print once more this "hostage to fortune" :) Have a rec.

I hope people will duly bookmark this conversation so we won;t need to check again!

For what it's worth most of those are also in the core of my HYP with the exception of PHP and Segro. Phoenix is in my Wife's HYP.

Arb.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82045

Postby Bouleversee » September 19th, 2017, 2:13 pm

Yet again, I spent some time writing a message, pressed the submit button and it has disappeared into thin air. Where do they go?

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82050

Postby Bouleversee » September 19th, 2017, 2:25 pm

Dod1010 wrote:Most, who have any interest in the matter, know my limited number of HYP shares, and their identity, but here goes again (in no particular order but at this time Unilever is easily my biggest holding followed by HSBC)

Legal & General
Unilever
Shell
Imperial Brands
BATS
HSBC
SSE
Primary Health Properties
Phoenix Group
Chesnara
National Grid
Vodafone
Astra Zeneca
Glaxo
Schroder N/V
Segro
British Land

In addition, I count Murray International, Murray Income and Edinburgh ITs as part of my HYP and these three give me a further spread. I have no supermarkets nor support services because I do not much like either sector. No one need pay any attention to me or what I say nor would I expect them to, but I think these 17 shares, plus a few more I have no doubt, are true HYP shares. I have held at least 7 of them (L & G, Unilever, Shell, Imps, BATS, HSBC and SSE plus Edinburgh IT) for well over 20 years and the only one I have traded is I think HSBC, and I have the paper certs to prove it!

Dod

They all pass my test of culture and the Directors in all cases, whilst often well paid, have the interests of the shareholders well to the forefront.


Will try again:

Thanks for that, Dod. Which of those would you still buy if starting your HYP now? I have 11 of them and my husband also had AZN, SSE, NG, HSBC
and VOD in a portfolio which I am selling or have already sold to pay legacies and am wondering whether to buy any back in my ISA, though none appeals greatly. The "sell" p/f also includes Barclays, First Group, Lloyds, Pearson, Schroders and Verizon. I am sure you never held any of them but I think others on here may have had them in their HYPs.

Have you ever had any disasters?

I recently bought Murray International and may buy Edinburgh at some point. I have bought one or two other ITs. It will be interesting to see how they compare with my own portfolio figures.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82052

Postby OZYU » September 19th, 2017, 2:42 pm

Have you ever had any disasters?

Well Dod will tell you of a few, I am sure he might mention COB or maybe CNA, but generally any investor who says NO to that question just has not been investing for long enough, full stop! It is character building, we are told, and I think there is more than a grain of truth in this.

Ozyu

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82068

Postby Arborbridge » September 19th, 2017, 3:54 pm

For those with a strong stomach, and a slightly loose attitude to HYP investing (an understatement!) IRV might be quite a nice punt at present.

I've been in this situation before, of course, in which a share has been trashed and I simple haven't had the courage to buy more - unlike the Directors of IRV who do seem to be buying.

Even for HYPers, this "buying outside the HYP regime" is not unknown - a notable example being TJH with Lloyds. A less notable example being me with Lloyds! It might be regarded as our dirty little secret 8-)

As regards the talk about "culture" - a rather subtle concept for types like me - I wonder if one might as well do a little charting instead.

Arb.

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82082

Postby monabri » September 19th, 2017, 4:42 pm

Arb, on you go!

Image


;)

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82085

Postby Dod1010 » September 19th, 2017, 4:45 pm

OZYU has a good memory. Neither of those mentioned were real disasters, at least not in the mould of Carillion. Many years ago, at the time of the 1999/2000 tech boom my first wife held Cable & Wireless worth around £30,000 in her estate and I recall deciding that it would be better transferred to me in specie. Of course I then held on as the price kept dropping and eventually sold for around £2000 or so. That was a disaster and one I have never forgotten.

As Arb has said my list is a bit of a hostage to fortune and it cannot be immune from problems; no portfolio ever could be, and I suspect it is too concentrated for some but that to me is the point. If I seek diversification it is almost certainly diworsification in my book.

To Bouleversee Were I starting again, I would be happy to buy them all with the possible exception of British Land. BTW I omitted one, Admiral so that makes 18 shares I think? I am not keen on it but it has a decent yield counting the specials, but I think its best days for expansion are behind it. In other words it has cherry picked the domestic market in cars and is now into household insurance and overseas expansion.

Anyway do not follow me except at your own risk!

Dod

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Re: Interserve - £90M write down

#82098

Postby Arborbridge » September 19th, 2017, 5:13 pm

Monabri :cry:

Dod, Cable and Wireless struck a cord, but I had the opposite experience. I held those shares just at the time that I was learning about charting - I actually went on a course back then -1999, think.
Anyhow, my new found knowledged arrived just in time to cause me to sell off all my CW shares, and I'm glad I did so.

When HYPing, I sometimes hanker after the charting days. I never, ever, made a killing, but I did keep myself safe throughout. However, my overall performance was only fair to middling - rather like a cautious fund strategy.

It wasn't until I was nearing retirement that I had to think about generating income and adopted HYP.


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