My next HYP "unpick"

[Arborbridge]

The next question I shall amswer before it is asked:

I have made a small topup of D S Smith. The balance will be retained for the moment and likely to be used to build up my IT holdings in SOI and MYI. Alternatively, there is an outside chance of starting a new holding. though I am not in a hurry to do that.

AAMOI, the only other HYP shares in that broker account are PSN, ABDN and IGG.

Arb.

Couple of suggestions. I'm planning on starting a position in UKW to go with GSF and TRIG. I think now could be a good time to buy one or more of the renewable trusts as most or all are sitting at a significant discount. You might find GSF a bit too high a yield, but UKW (and TRIG) are much more reasonable at 5-6%.

Mentioned in another thread were the brokers HL and AJB as alternatives to IGG and ABDN. Not ones I own but the thread commented that they are sitting at lows price wise have good yields and have increased their divis for a number of years and are both still throwing off lots of cash.

I notice TRIGs NAV has been in decline, whereas UKW has held up well.

[tjh290633]

We were just discussing the suitability of SMDS. https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=631253#p631253 As said I think we can forgive them the Covid cancellation, so excluding that about a decade of increasing dividends, good cover, high yield at 6ish - not too high.



PSN erratic history, ABDN - cutter? or was that a merge? IGG could be?

Thanks for the hints, much appreciated. IGG was a possible because it has been good to me in the past. However, it did so well that it is one of the few shares I have had to trim (like Terry) so it seemed a bit counterintuitive to top it up.
However, when the dust settles on today's hyperactive dealings, I shall think about that. IGG is a decent yield, but it is already standing at 1.2x median weight - not OTT, I grant you.

Thanks for your help.
Arb.

It's not unusual trim a share then see it fall, to the extent that it heads the list of shares, eligible for topping up. I have such a lot disqualified that my next top ups will give little extra dividend income. I am anticipating that ADM may get trimmed next week, with S32, ULVR and RKT likely to be those topped up. A side effect may be to release PHP from disqualification.

But it could be all different. Incidentally, I have no intention to cull VOD unless it stops paying dividends.

TJH

[funduffer]

A couple of questions for idpickering and Arborbridge

1. When did you buy your now sold holding of Vodafone PLC (VOD), and based on what premise or share analysis?

2. What has changed within VOD since your purchase, that has alarmed you such that you felt obliged to sell, apart from the share price dropping and the subsequent increase in yield?

Enjoy!


Ian

I bought VOD in 2014 at the start of my HYP journey at £2.14 per share and a forecast yield of around 5%.
For the next 4-5 years, the dividend increased progressively and it certainly seemed like a solid HYP choice.
Then came a ~60% cut in dividend in 2019 and things have never really recovered since.
The dividend is flat and the share price declining. The yield now seems so high that the dividend will probably be cut again. I seem to remember a thread talking about VOD at less than £2, and by the end of the thread it was less than £1!!
Successive management initiatives have come and gone without seemingly being able to turn things around.
It has been a disappointment and my TR is sitting at -23%

So should I sell?

Well it is HYP isn't it? Isn't it supposed to be LTBH, buy and forget?

As tjh says, it still pays a dividend.

So for me:

BUY: no, because the dividend is flat, and looks unsustainable at this level of yield

SELL: no, because it still pays a dividend

HOLD: yes, because it's HYP in'it!

FD

[moorfield]

It is a reasonable question, but a poster may not want to get into a rough and tumble or circular argument. I think refusing to engage is a fair position to take as we have seen some unecessarily harsh comments in the past.


Arb

Well said Arb. You read my mind. That's pretty much why I shy away from engaging with certain posters here.

Ian.

Harsh questions, but fair ones. This is a place of robust debate, and rightly so. As many would I agree I think, trading "willy nilly", by "gut instinct", or on "forum opinion" is a practice pyad was certainly not advocating. I think that's what the questions are getting at.

The 3rd question IanTHughes omitted to ask was:
3. How much money have you lost buying, selling, selling, buying the same share(s) over and again the last few years ?

At the end of the day the only persons you need to answer to are [Deletion][dependents], Lady M in my case. I assume they know the answer to the 3rd ?

Moderator Message:
Please don't bring other posters' wives into the debate. Thanks. - Chris

[Arborbridge]

Well said Arb. You read my mind. That's pretty much why I shy away from engaging with certain posters here.

Ian.

Harsh questions, but fair ones. This is a place of robust debate, and rightly so. As many would I agree I think, trading "willy nilly", by "gut instinct", or on "forum opinion" is a practice pyad was certainly not advocating. I think that's what the questions are getting at.

The 3rd question IanTHughes omitted to ask was:
3. How much money have you lost buying, selling, selling, buying the same share(s) over and again the last few years ?

At the end of the day the only persons you need to answer to are [Deletion][dependents], Lady M in my case. I assume they know the answer to the 3rd ?

The question is a bit like "when did you stop beating your wife" - it makes an assumption that I/We are repeatedly buying and selling and buying and selling. The answer is - in the terms of the question ZERO, as far as I know. I can tell you about shares I've told and what XIRR they ended up with, but I don't believe I have bought back in to any of them.

They all rest as Dead Souls* in a separate spread sheet.

As a matter of interest, you make remember I did once carry out a survey of what happened after three years from selling out of some shares to find out whether this led to an improvement. The success rate was around 50:50, but in any such study there is a measure of ifs and buts. On the whole, due to that, I am slow to sell out - some would say much too slow, though others would think I am in league with the devil for selling anything at all.

*named after the novel by Gogol.
Arb.

[moorfield]

Harsh questions, but fair ones. This is a place of robust debate, and rightly so. As many would I agree I think, trading "willy nilly", by "gut instinct", or on "forum opinion" is a practice pyad was certainly not advocating. I think that's what the questions are getting at.

The 3rd question IanTHughes omitted to ask was:
3. How much money have you lost buying, selling, selling, buying the same share(s) over and again the last few years ?

At the end of the day the only persons you need to answer to are [Deletion][dependents], Lady M in my case. I assume they know the answer to the 3rd ?

The question is a bit like "when did you stop beating your wife" - it makes an assumption that I/We are repeatedly buying and selling and buying and selling. The answer is - in the terms of the question ZERO, as far as I know. I can tell you about shares I've told and what XIRR they ended up with, but I don't believe I have bought back in to any of them.

They all rest as Dead Souls* in a separate spread sheet.

As a matter of interest, you make remember I did once carry out a survey of what happened after three years from selling out of some shares to find out whether this led to an improvement. The success rate was around 50:50, but in any such study there is a measure of ifs and buts. On the whole, due to that, I am slow to sell out - some would say much too slow, though others would think I am in league with the devil for selling anything at all.

*named after the novel by Gogol.
Arb.

But remember where you are, and what you claim to practice. To me HYPs USP was the following, especially.

Do not be tempted to meddle, and try not to let press comment on your companies influence you. Do not worry about the fluctuations in the underlying capital value of your shares that are certain to occur.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140219210 ... 01106c.htm


This epithet makes a lot of sense, but I think is little practised now. To "press comment" we should add "internet forum comment", and I think that influences [Deletion] [some poster's] trading, a lot. There, I've said it.

TJH's method is a sound enhancement/evolution of HYP I think everyone will agree. The aspect of HYP I personally disagree with is in the implementation of (ie. a portfolio ITs can achieve the same results just as well).

So, let me ask. Why do folk claiming to be HYPsters find it so difficult not to meddle ?

Moderator Message:
Impersonalised. - Chris

[Arborbridge]

This thread has been rewarding. I am surprised and somewhat pleased by the number of people who have taken me to task for my sale of VOD - it's nice to know that there are still some quite rigid upholders of HYP tradition, but slightly more uncomfortable for me to know that I might be excluded from that club.

HYP is the only direct shareholding method that I have run with quite some success over such a long period of time. Whatever my detractors here might believe, I still think of myself as someone running a HYP - but like an erring Christian is still a Christian, and erring HYPer can still be a HYPer - I am therefore with being flamed and shall carry on running what I believe is a HYP. I have never disguised the fact that I am a slow tinkerer: the number of sales I've made are indeed very small over the years. I have also been flamed for holding on to investments when more proactive people have sold and moved on, and in my view I am still well within the bounds of HYP practical in this respect. That's not to say that this particular sale ,et the rigid template: no, it didn't. I've already said it was uncharacteristic and you could just say it was an error. VOD has been a dodgy problem share for years which has concerned me: I'm not sure it should ever have been bought for my HYP, so I do not regret its passing. High yield and low cover, difficult business to understand with a tendency to get into unstable situations and legal disputes. All a big messy and not boring enough perhaps. Maybe this is all in my own head, but this definitely had a bearing on why I sold.

Thinking back on it, I wonder if the title of my thread might have an unconscious meaning of which I was not aware. "Unpick", perhaps as in unpicking my HYP or reducing it as I get older? I'm aware of increasing age and the probability that I will die before my wife: this could be behind a drift into other ways of investing. So, if I have reduced the number of my HYP shares by one or two this year, that plays in to that narrative but still leaves a substantial HYP providing most of my income.

I am penitent.

Arb.