State of play - My HYP

[Arborbridge]

Eh? Numbers can go down forever without hitting zero.

There's a mathematician speaking

But that wasn't my main point in that context, and if you are not sure what the point was, that doesn't worry me as most people would have "got it".

[Gengulphus]

But that wasn't my main point in that context, ...

Agreed - but attempting to back up your main point with a fallacious argument doesn't get you anywhere.

And by the way, prices falling for a very long time isn't just an abstract mathematical concept - it can happen in reality, and it did happen for my entire working career in the business in which I was working!

Gengulphus

[Arborbridge]

Agreed - but attempting to back up your main point with a fallacious argument doesn't get you anywhere.

You're right to correct my fallacious argument, but I'd say you are being uneceesarily picky with regard to my remark. I rather doubt if anyone else was worried about the mathematical correctness of my slightly tongue in cheek remark. but rather, they probably took on board the general idea of what I as driving at which was not, in my view, undermined by the erroneous mathematics.
Other bloggers reading my remark, would have seen that it is unlikely that the fees would reduce continuously, and that the point raised in the piece (unless there was further information missed out) was a false deduction. Because fees had dropped two years in a row, does not mean they will continue to do so.


Arb.

[TUK020]

There's a mathematician speaking

Who are you calling an asymptote?

[eyeball08]

Well being a bear of little brain, I had to look it up
New Oxford Dictionary of English (1998 Ed.)
Asymptote: a straight line that continually approaches a given curve but does not meet it at any finite distance.
Disclosure: I only did maths up to pure maths, applied maths and additional maths at O level. A level maths was just too much bloody homework.
(Probably used to have some colleagues at work for whom this would have been a good description.)

[Gengulphus]

You're right to correct my fallacious argument, but I'd say you are being uneceesarily picky with regard to my remark. I rather doubt if anyone else was worried about the mathematical correctness of my slightly tongue in cheek remark. but rather, they probably took on board the general idea of what I as driving at which was not, in my view, undermined by the erroneous mathematics.

Indeed, the general idea isn't undermined by the erroneous mathematics - but neither is it supported by it.

And without that support, your general idea is just that there are thoughts missing, which of course there are in a short quote of Barclays' views in a DigitalLook article - apart from anything else, quoting enough to give Barclays' views fully would very likely involve copyright violation... Basically, I think you were expecting more from the article (https://www.digitallook.com/news/broker ... 85985.html) than it attempts to be: it's not an analysis of the companies concerned, but a brief report of Barclays' analysis of them. If anyone actually wants to criticise that analysis, all the article is really useful for is to tell them that it exists and what it's about - they'll have to get hold of a copy of it to be able to look at the detail of what it says and what the arguments are for and against its conclusions. Otherwise, such quotes basically just give a few hints of questions one might want to try to answer with one's own research - not the answers, and definitely not all the questions!

And that's basically why I think being 'picky' in that way is needed: plausible-sounding-but-erroneous mathematics like that can unintentionally invite people to dismiss an idea that actually requires research to answer. So incidentally can over-generalisation, such as from the idea that fees could reduce for another year to the idea that they'll continue to do so into the indefinite future.

Other bloggers reading my remark, would have seen that it is unlikely that the fees would reduce continuously, and that the point raised in the piece (unless there was further information missed out) was a false deduction. Because fees had dropped two years in a row, does not mean they will continue to do so.

The quote that you made the remark about ("If clients get the same service from agencies on lower fees in 2017, then why won’t they lower fees again in 2018?") isn't a deduction at all, false or otherwise! It's a question - one that is unanswered in the DigitalLook report, that might or might not be answered in the Barclays analysis, and that readers can try to answer either by getting hold of that analysis or by doing their own research.

Gengulphus

[Arborbridge]

eyeball:

Well being a bear of little brain, I had to look it up

Yes, but I'll bet you understood my basic meaning without having to understand or be picky about whether the maths was correct or not (as it turned out). In other words, your brain was working perfectly well and not so little

[Gengulphus]

I think eyeball08 was talking about understanding TUK020's comment!

Gengulphus

Moderator Message:
Folks, could we please rein in these flights of fancy, and return to the topic at hand? --- MDW1954

[idpickering]

Sorry, I forgot a bit. Next month I'm looking at bringing ITV on board. A new sector for me.

Ian.

As I mentioned in another thread, I was able to buy a slice of ITV yesterday as well. This will be brought up to nearer average capital value weighting next month. Current media sector weighting (ITV) being 1.3% of the HYP whole.

Ian.

Good morning all, just to confirm my intentions for this months top up in my HYP, as stated above it will indeed be ITV. This top up will bring ITV up to about 2.4% in capital value weight of my 28 share HYP. It is possible that I will top them up again in the future, we'll see.

Ian.

[idpickering]

Further to the top up of ITV next week, I have just done what I'd mentioned elsewhere, and brought Marden's and Lloyds into my HYP fold. THat's 30 holdings now and more than enough, so back to sleep.

Ian.

[idpickering]

So, for clarity, in my own mind, and hopefully beneficial to other HYPers, here's my HYP as of now;

Stock

Admiral Group
AstraZeneca
BAE Systems
BHP Billiton
BP.
BT Group
British American Tobacco
British Land
Centrica
Diageo
Direct Line
GlaxoSmithKline
HSBC
Imperial Brands
ITV
Legal & General
Lloyds
Marston's
National Grid
Rio Tinto
Shell (RDSB)
Royal Mail
SSE
Sainsbury
Standard Life Aberdeen
Tate & Lyle
Taylor Wimpey
United Utilities
Unilever
Vodafone

Sector                     Weighting                                                                                     
Oil & gas                    9.7%  
Pharmas                      8.9%
Tobacco                      8.4% 
Life Insurance               8.3%
Utilities                    7.3%
Mining                       7.3% 
Banks                        5.5% 
Food producers               4.5%
Household goods              4.5%
Non Life insurance           4.3%
Aero & defence               4.1%  
Electricity                  3.8% 
Mobile tels                  3.5%
Real estate                  3.5%
Fixed tels                   3.5%
Industrial Transport         3.3%
Food retail                  3.0%
Beverages                    2.1% 
Travel & Leisure             2.0%

For this month there will be a smallish top up of Marston's, so that'll nudge them up a bit. Going forward the only new monies going into the HYP will be the dividends received, which are held in the account in cash until I decide what to do with it on a monthly basis. We do not need the money (dividends) in our pocket currently, so it can be reinvested for now. In two weeks tomorrow my Wife and I move up to Orkney, so I'll have other things on my mind than HYPing.

Ian.

[kempiejon]

Ian, good luck in your move.

[idpickering]

Ian, good luck in your move.

Thanks kempiejon.

[Darka]

Thanks for the update Ian, informative as usual.

Hope you have a stress free move and that everything goes well.

regards,
Darka

[idpickering]

Thanks for the update Ian, informative as usual.

Hope you have a stress free move and that everything goes well.

regards,
Darka

You're very welcome Darka, and thank you for the good wishes. Regarding the above HYP, I think that's about it to be honest. It's minimal interference from me going forward, apart from the monthly top-ups. Some will raise their eyebrows to my comment there, but that is the plan. Just as a HYP and HYPing should be IMHO.

Ian.

[moorfield]

In two weeks tomorrow my Wife and I move up to Orkney, so I'll have other things on my mind than HYPing.

Good luck with your move! Orkney sounds rather Dorissian to me and I reckon that will make you the UK's most northerly poster on TLF? (Assuming you get an interweb connection up there? )

[idpickering]

In two weeks tomorrow my Wife and I move up to Orkney, so I'll have other things on my mind than HYPing.

Good luck with your move! Orkney sounds rather Dorissian to me and I reckon that will make you the UK's most northerly poster on TLF? (Assuming you get an interweb connection up there? )

Thanks moorfield. There is no escape from my waffle as some areas up there have good internet access.

[pendas]

Good luck with the move Ian and I hope the HYP will do the business when you want it.

[tjh290633]

Good luck with the move, Ian. Hope the language barrier is not too extreme

TJH

[Arborbridge]

Ian,

I hope you settle in OK and all works out in the way you wish. Let's hope the interwebby thing gets up and running quickly. No doubt your HYP will carry on running nicely with no internet or possibility of pickering at all

Brave brave decision, if I may say so, minister (with apologies to Yes Minister)

Arb.