BT - I've gone wobbly

[Gengulphus]

BT has been one of my luckiest investments (I say luck, because skill didn't come into it!).

I inherited some shares from my dad in 2003, who must have got them when they were nationalised. I then got interested in HYP largely through MF in 2008 and bought more BT late in that year based on their lowish price and rising dividend ...
...
Eventually, the SP got to a level where the yield was getting pretty low so I sold the 2008 tranche in three chunks between 2013 and 2015 to finance other purchases.

Hmm... I'd say you're being too modest. You bought late in 2008, near the end of the share price decline, with the yield high and the share price low, and you sold between 2013 and 2015, with the yield low and the share price high.

If you're going to tinker, buy-low-and-sell-high is definitely a good way to go, and the fact that you got both the buying decision and the selling decision right (*) and give "lowish price" and "yield ... pretty low" as your reasons for those decisions does suggest quite strongly to me that there was skill involved, not just luck!

(*) Not perfect, of course - buying at the absolute bottom and selling at the absolute top really would require a major amount of luck!

Gengulphus

[vrdiver]

... my records suggest a dividend of 11.9p in 2006).
...

Quite right Peter! I was using a formula to divide the dividend received by the number of shares held, and in that instance had included a tranche bought ex-dividend. The corrected figure is shown below (in bold); now I need to check my records for any other schoolboy errors!

Annual       %
Year          Dividend  Change
2006          £0.119   
2007          £0.151       27%
2008          £0.158        5%
2009          £0.065      -59%
2010          £0.069        6%
2011          £0.074        7%
2012          £0.083       12%
2013          £0.095       14%
2014          £0.109       15%
2015          £0.124       14%
2016          £0.140       13%
2017          £0.154       10%

5 year CAGR 13.9%[/quote]

[YeeWo]

Presumably a high yield is not really a consideration for you? What are you trying to achieve?

My considerations are: -
- a decent yield.
- a sustainably good ROCE (20%+ preferably), balance sheet not too encumbered by debt.
- a well covered dividend with a management commitment to a progressive policy delivered in reality.
- a business with a diversified International revenue flow.
- an understandable "economic moat".
- stable management.
- turnaround situations are becoming less and less appealing.
I'm trying to achieve: -
- a stable and growing dividend flow, all reinvested and added to with new-ISAmoney, until I drawdown as part of my pension plans.
- a return which comfortably beats cash on deposit without taking too much risk.
- maintenance of capital.

[Gengulphus]

My considerations are: -
- a decent yield.
...

Ah, the advent of the DYP!

I hesitate to ask, but would you prefer to be called a DYPpy or a DYPer? ;-)

Gengulphus

[YeeWo]

DYPist?

[Markblox]

I know there is pure HYP and variations of that but I find it amazing how many investors on here don't seem to follow it in any sense at all. Surely some of them are on the wrong forum!

[Wizard]

I know there is pure HYP and variations of that but I find it amazing how many investors on here don't seem to follow it in any sense at all. Surely some of them are on the wrong forum!

I think it is the role of the moderators to determine when it moves too far off topic. Some of the tangential threads lead to ssome discussion I for one fknd interesting.

Terry.

[kempiejon]

and this post takes us further off topic and away from HYP objectives. I agreed some of the wider ranging topics are interesting but I do feel though there's chat about shares that have a high yield, some strategies are a fair way away from the HYP so agreed with Markblox.
I am not inclined to report off topic/board discussions, I could chime in if I think a poster is running a deviant strategy but I've decided it's easier to move on.

[Clitheroekid]

Notwithstanding all the noise around BT Group, with a forward yield of 5.4% (according to digitallook), on a pe of 10, and cover at 1.7, and at a 52 week low of 294p, they're a screaming HYP buy. I'd have no issue filling my boots.

I agree; trouble is one could say the same about Petrofac: Forward yield 14%, PE 4.4, cover 1.7....

Not only could but would! viewtopic.php?f=15&t=5151&p=59566&hilit=petrofac#p59566

[Markblox]

I know there is pure HYP and variations of that but I find it amazing how many investors on here don't seem to follow it in any sense at all. Surely some of them are on the wrong forum!

I think it is the role of the moderators to determine when it moves too far off topic. Some of the tangential threads lead to ssome discussion I for one fknd interesting.

Terry.

Personally, I think we should self moderate a little more. We may not all agree on what HYP investing is, but we should all know what it isn't! Talking about going wobbly on a share basically because the share price has gone south is NOT what it is about, that's just speculation.

[toofast2live]

Ah, but a share price going south may well be a forward indicator of economic woe. And that would dent your dividend.

It may well be that all those clever boys and girls in the city have got it all wrong and BT will continue to churn out delicious dividends ad infinitum.

[Markblox]

Ah, but a share price going south may well be a forward indicator of economic woe. And that would dent your dividend.

It may well be that all those clever boys and girls in the city have got it all wrong and BT will continue to churn out delicious dividends ad infinitum.

SI!

[YeeWo]

Notwithstanding all the noise around BT Group, with a forward yield of 5.4% (according to digitallook), on a pe of 10, and cover at 1.7, and at a 52 week low of 294p, they're a screaming HYP buy. I'd have no issue filling my boots.

Ian, With the utmost respect do you still feel the same about BT? At £2.04p today, they're presumably a really screaming HYP buy, no?

[moorfield]

I know there is pure HYP and variations of that but I find it amazing how many investors on here don't seem to follow it in any sense at all. Surely some of them are on the wrong forum!

If we followed pure HYP to the (Pyadic) letter, there would be no need for a forum ....

[AndyPandy]

I know there is pure HYP and variations of that but I find it amazing how many investors on here don't seem to follow it in any sense at all. Surely some of them are on the wrong forum!

If we followed pure HYP to the (Pyadic) letter, there would be no need for a forum ....

Indeed, although unless it is purely mechanical, a Forum helps discuss prospective portfolio purchase options.

My take is that HYP has its good and bad points like any other strategy. I'm not a Dorisian HYPer, but some of my portfolio is invested in the shares discussed here. I'm more of a Total Returns Chap & part of TR is the Dividend (& its sustainability). I frequent this board for ideas and the insights from the posters here to build my portfolio, not to build a HYP portfolio. Doesn't mean I cannot frequent here or chip in from time to time.

[Fluke]

do you still feel the same about BT? At £2.04p today

I do. Bought some yesterday at £2.03 with some of the proceeds of my NXG sale. I have never topped up since my original purchase at £2.21 in May 2008 (10 years almost to the day), just let it do its thing and took the divi's. To my surprise it found its way to the top of my list for yesterday's top up.

[idpickering]

Notwithstanding all the noise around BT Group, with a forward yield of 5.4% (according to digitallook), on a pe of 10, and cover at 1.7, and at a 52 week low of 294p, they're a screaming HYP buy. I'd have no issue filling my boots.

Ian, With the utmost respect do you still feel the same about BT? At £2.04p today, they're presumably a really screaming HYP buy, no?

Hi YeeWo, I get that they're (BT.A) not a perfect HYP share, but I do think that with the yield on offer, and with the HYP long term hold mantra, coupled with my HYP diversification, there is room for BT Group. I would buy more certainly, but I think I might Pickering about it first.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Notwithstanding all the noise around BT Group, with a forward yield of 5.4% (according to digitallook), on a pe of 10, and cover at 1.7, and at a 52 week low of 294p, they're a screaming HYP buy. I'd have no issue filling my boots.

Ian, With the utmost respect do you still feel the same about BT? At £2.04p today, they're presumably a really screaming HYP buy, no?

Hi YeeWo, I get that they're (BT.A) not a perfect HYP share, but I do think that with the yield on offer, and with the HYP long term hold mantra, coupled with my HYP diversification, there is room for BT Group. I would buy more certainly, but I think I might Pickering about it first.

Ian.

I passed on BT this time although they are second in my table. The share has been falling for a long time and this isn't healthy, so I've taken my HYPing Hat off for the moment, but I am not selling. Indeed, I intend to top up, but I think I'd prefer to wait and see if the share price begins to recover. Even though this might not give me max-yield, it will still be high-yield unless a divi cut happens first.

Just for the record, my previous buy was in December at 268p.

Arb.

[csearle]

BT are at the top of my top up ranking. Once I get my flipping watchlist working again, just to double check that there isn't a competing newcomer in the wings, I'll go for BT if they're still at the top. I figure that the more one sticks with one's strategy the more credibility one can lend it. C.

[AleisterCrowley]

I've held BT for longer than any other share by miles.
As a former employee, I got loads via Sharesave and ESOS (free shares..) Then there was the O2 spin off, and subsequent Telefónica purchase
I've tried to work out my gains/performance but it's just too dashed difficult, so the remaining ones are sat in my ISA mentally flagged 'too difficult to think about'
When calculating my ISA IRR I'm going to treat the BT shares as a cash input based on opening price on 'Zero Day 2008', which is the day I made my first 'proper' purchase. I think it was GSK, which has gone nowhere...