moorfield wrote:Shouldn't we here - on HYP Practical - be deliberately ignoring all forecasts and opinions for the long term future of the economy, the sector or the individual share on the basis that nobody knows and that those who think they know, know even less?
Quite possibly and indeed I try to do so myself, though not all HYPers subscribe to that form of "strategic ignorance".
But what about
short term forecasts? The Conservatives' price cap probably has a timescale of something of the rough order of a year, i.e. similar to those of forecast dividends, which loads of HYPers use, including pyad. Realistically, Labour's intentions involve longer-term forecasting than that: to put them into effect, they've got to get into power, then get the legislation through Parliament and very likely legal challenges (note that the European Convention on Human Rights has stuff to say about property rights and is
not part of the European Union treaties, so Brexit does not in itself exit from it). Nevertheless, I'd be pretty certain that if Labour gets into power reasonably soon, they could get their nationalisation plans through within say five years from now, which I at least don't count as truly long-term.
Nevertheless, I do in general ignore individual broker forecasts and opinions - not for "strategic ignorance" reasons, but because I generally have no idea of the competence of the analyst making the forecast to do the job well. Consensus forecasts average that out, and I'll use them on the basis that it probably results in reasonably-but-by-no-means-outstandingly competent forecasts for a few key figures - with the proviso that they probably won't necessarily adjust all that quickly to major news, so need to be read in the light of any major recent news. Consensus opinions don't exist, and summary individual opinions along "Target price 500p. Buy." lines give too little to get to grips with. I will generally read individual broker reports on companies I'm interested in to see whether the analyst suggests any factors I've overlooked (not for their opinions about those factors) -
if I can easily get hold of them, which is quite rare. (Journalists' reports trying to summarise broker reports are another matter - too much of a 'Chinese Whispers' aspect to them for my taste...)
Gengulphus