The Lemon Fool

Raptor wrote:Not a HYP Share and as far as I can see has never been. Moving from HYP Practical. Raptor.

Present day "constituent" of HYP 1:

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=8409

Fwiiw.

Was a little surprised to see LCL up 25% in my portfolio a moment ago, suspected some kind of error.

but no - takeover talks well underway!

https://investegate.co.uk/ladbrokes-cor ... 00056351Y/

What to do?????

Will it go further? Or do I sell now?

Advice very welcome. Paul

Sorry apologies. Back to HYP. Did not realise its history.

Raptor.

Paultry wrote:What to do?????

Will it go further? Or do I sell now?

Advice very welcome. Paul

Sorry Crystal Ball is not working. This takeover is basically on hold until the government makes a decision on what stakes it is going to allow the FOBT machines to take per spin. Even then I feel that the size of this "company" would be sent to the Takeover Commision (or whatever they are called).

To give you an idea of how much those FOBTs mean to the "shops". When I started with Coral's, the machines contributed about 37% to the profits (that was in 2005) by the time I"retired" it was over 75% (2014). The average "stake" on all games was £10, but on "roulette" it was over £25 (in my shop). So if they set a limit of £20 then I believe you may see a large reduction in profitable shops. They do not make enough on Sports, Horse or Dogs to cover the reduction.

I do not hold and have never held any from this sector.

Raptor.

Raptor wrote:
I do not hold and have never held any from this sector.

Raptor.

Hi Raptor - to me that's an interesting part of your post (note I didn't say only!)

I don't know your background and it sounds as though you worked in the gambling sector (you say 'my shop') yet don't and have never held shares in the gambling industry. Is this because it didn't fit in with your portfolio as a whole, or, given your insights being 'in the trade', is it an industry that you thought wouldn't keep churning out the returns/dividends you required? Would you neverhold shares in this sector?

I'm interested as I hold IG Group (IGG) in the 'General Financial' sector of my HYP (I suppose it could also come under the 'gambling' heading with its futures/options element) but no exposure to traditional gambling businesses such as Ladbrokes/William Hill etc.

Cheers, OLTB.

OLTB wrote:

Raptor wrote:
I do not hold and have never held any from this sector.

Raptor.

Hi Raptor - to me that's an interesting part of your post (note I didn't say only!)

I don't know your background and it sounds as though you worked in the gambling sector (you say 'my shop') yet don't and have never held shares in the gambling industry. Is this because it didn't fit in with your portfolio as a whole, or, given your insights being 'in the trade', is it an industry that you thought wouldn't keep churning out the returns/dividends you required? Would you neverhold shares in this sector?

I'm interested as I hold IG Group (IGG) in the 'General Financial' sector of my HYP (I suppose it could also come under the 'gambling' heading with its futures/options element) but no exposure to traditional gambling businesses such as Ladbrokes/William Hill etc.

Cheers, OLTB.

Working in different sectors does cloud what you look to buy. Although the only company that ever popped up was William Hills (I actually worked for them as a boardman on a Saturday, 42 years ago), but after 10 years with Coral I could not see them lasting (shops that is). The footfall of horse and dogs, which used to be the main business, was virtually gone, football bets were rising fast but the emphasis on FOBT's and their reliance on them was a major turn-off.

Same goes for sub-prime loans and mortgages. 2 years as an underwriter and I had no desire to enter that sector either. Saw some things there that would have you shivering.

However, like you I hold IGG and have done for a while, they have been good for me. Yes it is gambling I suppose. Would I ever hold? Good question, said I would never own Tobacco and although I do not in my portfolio. Did buy BATS for my daughters, so who knows going forward.

Raptor.

Raptor

Thank you for sharing your experience, most welcome.

I bought Ladbrokes as a solid HYP share in Jan 2014, just after a downward blip in the share price. But the blips kept coming, not that it mattered, until the dividend was cut.

An article on The Motley Fool yesterday explained that the shares will be priced at 160 p plus up to an additional 40 p if the gaming regulators do not hammer the maximum stake that can be placed on a fixed odds machine.

Your information cheers me somewhat since I've been led to believe that most punters were placing £200 bets and that's why it needed curbing. So maybe the maximum stake will be curtailed a little and allow Ladbrokes to return to the HYP camp.
Paul

I have held Ladbrokes since it was hived off from Hilton. The proceeds of the hotel sale were paid as a huge dividend, which was reflected in a paper capital loss. Ladbrokes has been a useful potential tax loss for me, but was not very profitable. I was lamenting that to a friend yesterday, but I looked at the share price today, and saw that it had leaped. If I want to keep my "get out of jail free" card, I will have to hang on as usual.