Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

[spiderbill]

I've been watching Imperial Brands share price dropping steadily over the last few weeks and it's now getting very close to the 30 quid level. Although it already makes up 4.8% of my. portfolio it's getting very tempting. I presume the latest drop is due to a possible Japanese deal going sour - haven't seen anything else newsworthy, but the market seems very down on tobacco at the moment. Long term there's bound to be a decline but short and medium term they seem solid with a growing dividend. Anyone else getting itchy trigger fingers?

[HowardRoark]

That's exactly what I've done this very minute. I'm not a true HYP'er, but happy to tuck these away for a few years.

£30.18 paid on historical dividend yield 5.47%. On 22 February they go ex-dividend (record date 23 Feb, payment date 29 March) with a payment due of 59.51p . . . so there's an imminent 1.97% yield return. Directors last noted in the accounts a ninth consecutive year of 10% dividend increases. The business model is moving more towards new products (i.e., e-cigs) and is actively targeting increased cost savings.

Oversold, apparently on the lack of a Japanese deal . . . one to tuck away at these prices in the absence of much else that's attractive. Defensive stocks will likely come to the fore again on the imminent market dip.

[idpickering]

I must admit that I am very tempted to buy yet more Imperial Brands (IMB) myself. They currently represent 4.2% in capital value of my HYP, and sit alongside my British American Tobacco holdings in that sector, similarly weighted to IMB. You can't fault the 10% increases in dividend they like to throw out, so what's not to like. I'll 'Picker' it some more.

Ian.

[TUK020]

did some rebalancing of the portfolio this month, and wound up with funds for 3 top ups of HYP shares which I put into NG, LGEN & IMB.
All 3 look fairly solid players, and opportunistic price levels/yields.

[spiderbill]

Only other thing I can see is them saying that the US tax changes won't make much difference.

Anyway you've persuaded me (not that I needed much persuading) - just bought some more at 29.99. Just missed a lower price twice as it started to rebound.

Thanks all

[jackdaww]

yes - at 3009 - not been at this level for some while .

[nk104]

Bought yesterday at 3070p. Would have preferred £30, but happy to tuck away

[Arborbridge]

So what's going on here? This share a been falling steadily for 9 months, from £39 to £30, yet we are all rushing to top up.

Arb.

[kempiejon]

So what's going on here? This share a been falling steadily for 9 months, from £39 to £30, yet we are all rushing to top up.

Arb.

Well they have offered to try and raise the income by 10% annually and these levels, 5.5% haven't been seen since 2000, according to dividenddata they have averaged 10%plus compound dividend growth over 5, 10 and 15 years - for an income strategy that looks bang on. Tobacco is below my median weight and I have been topping up from about £40 down.

[Itsallaguess]

Did it not all start with some proposed legislation or something in America?

The FDA have proposals that might mean cigarette makers will have to cut the amount of nicotine in their products to levels that are 'non-addictive'.

Here's a story from July -

A radical plan by the US drugs regulator to reduce nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels saw shares in FTSE 100 tobacco giants British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands go up in smoke.

The US Food and Drug Administration’s proposal to stub out the habit, which it says kills half of users, sparked a global tobacco sell-off as defensive stocks known for their steady earnings came under attack.

Heavily exposed to the US market through its stake in Reynolds, British American Tobacco crashed as much as 14pc before recovering to finish 362p lower at £49.60, a 6.8pc plunge, while less exposed Imperial slid 130.5p to £33.16.

“It’s hard to overstate what this could mean for the companies affected. Non-addictive levels of nicotine would likely mean a lot fewer smokers and of those people who do still light up, smoking a lot less,” argued ETX Capital market analyst Neil Wilson.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... th-trumps/

I assume this risk, along with the awakening of cigarette smokers to the proposed health-advantages of vaping, which introduces some risk into these types of companies, even though they have large 'technology' departments who themselves deliver vaping to their customers, might account for some of the doubts around their very long-term situations...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess (owns BATS and IMP)

[monabri]

So what's going on here? This share a been falling steadily for 9 months, from £39 to £30, yet we are all rushing to top up.

Arb.

SSE next , eh? at 7.1% yield

[Arborbridge]

So what's going on here? This share a been falling steadily for 9 months, from £39 to £30, yet we are all rushing to top up.

Arb.

Well they have offered to try and raise the income by 10% annually and these levels, 5.5% haven't been seen since 2000, according to dividenddata they have averaged 10%plus compound dividend growth over 5, 10 and 15 years - for an income strategy that looks bang on. Tobacco is below my median weight and I have been topping up from about £40 down.

I know - I was justing thinking that the board has just come from a humungous discussion about falling share price and the dangers thereof. Now we are rushing off to buy into another falling share price.

I topped up, BTW recently, but just before this recent fall. You wonder how much further this might go, regardless of the strength of the company.

[idpickering]

Words of caution received Arb. I did top up IMB in October last year so I've already bought into this stocks current downward trend. I just had a look and I think I may well have bet enough on this share already, so may shy away from buying more currently.

Ian.

[Bouleversee]

I've topped up twice last year, only to see them fall further. Enough is enough till there is an upward trend if that ever happens. I'll wait for some good news.

Am I not right, though, in thinking that IMB is diversifying into something else (apart from vaping)? They can't be oblivious to the writing on the wall. Perhaps we should be looking ino that.

[Dod101]

Not sure why the OP would be asking the question in the first place, unless he is seeking comfort from the possibility of others buying when he may be thinking of doing so. As has now been said ad nauseum on the other thread, there is no safety or protection in numbers. He must decide himself whether or not to buy.

Dod

[Bouleversee]

Not sure why the OP would be asking the question in the first place, unless he is seeking comfort from the possibility of others buying when he may be thinking of doing so. As has now been said ad nauseum on the other thread, there is no safety or protection in numbers. He must decide himself whether or not to buy.

Dod

Might as well shut down TLF then. Silly me, I thought the whole point of discussion boards was to exchange opinions and information with a view to enlightening oneself and others.

[Arborbridge]

Not sure why the OP would be asking the question in the first place, unless he is seeking comfort from the possibility of others buying when he may be thinking of doing so. As has now been said ad nauseum on the other thread, there is no safety or protection in numbers. He must decide himself whether or not to buy.

Dod

Actually, there is safety in numbers. That's why people use momentum as an investment tool. There's no safety in financial numbers, on the other hand as it isn't until masses of shares are bought, that the market moves.

However, in the context which Dod means -specifically chattering classes on TLF - I would hope a collective opinion might be better than a single opinion. I don't know, of course, but if it isn't, it is all pretty much a waste of time and we may as well get back in our lonesome boxes and stop talking!

Not only that, but I can perfectly understand, with the background of the CLLN failure, that people will seek opinions. After all, if a number of respected people on here had explained what was wrong with that company in convincing terms, and that had been a concensus view here, it might have put people off buying or topping up.

[spiderbill]

Not sure why the OP would be asking the question in the first place, unless he is seeking comfort from the possibility of others buying when he may be thinking of doing so. As has now been said ad nauseum on the other thread, there is no safety or protection in numbers. He must decide himself whether or not to buy.

Two reasons Dod: To see if anyone knew of a reason for this morning's drop in case I'd missed something, and to alert people who might also have been looking for a temporary drop to buy into what's long been considered a HYP stalwart but who hadn't checked the prices yet today.

I was 80% sure I was going to buy when I posted and as long as nothing untoward came up I was going ahead. Risky perhaps, but a calculated
one I hope. This is a risky business but while we need to be watchful to avoid another Carillion, we also need to sieze opportunities when they show up. Hopefully the industry/company has a good few years left before it really starts to decline and it'll work out ok, but if I lose by it then it's nobody's fault but mine at the end of the day.

cheers
Spiderbill

[Dod101]

Please do not misunderstand me. If someone is asking on these Boards whether someone is buying say Imps, this may be because they are about to fall into the trap which was admitted on the Carillion board of 'Oh well if Fred is buying and so are three or four others it must be OK and I do not want to miss out'. That is highly dangerous and what I mean by 'safety in numbers'.

Of course we have discussions. That is the point. The question 'Does anyone have any idea why Imps share price has been falling so much over the past few months because everything on the trading side looks fine?' is a sensible question. We all need to remember that not everyone here has been investing for 20 years or more. We all have different styles, approaches and outcomes' so can learn from each other. Just please we should not kid ourselves that because Fred (sorry FredBloggs) and his mates are buying we had better too or we might lose out. Investing is essentially a lonely and personal business and we must decide for ourselves how to invest. If that does not work or does not appeal then the investor is better off buying a fund (preferably from my point of view an IT)

Rant over but for goodness sake if we have learned nothing else from the hundreds of posts on Carillion it is surely that.

Dod

[idpickering]

I agree with you Dod, and a fine post may I say. I often put up here, my ideas regarding share purchases for myself, or offer an opinion (for whatever that's worth) on other posters ideas and intentions. There are some well versed Lemons here, and I'm grateful for their thoughts, and respect them, but I will make my own mind up. If I'm wrong, that's my fault alone. I'm glad this board exists, and long may it continue.

Ian.