The folks on the LSE board have spotted an updated Edison note giving an 81p/share valuation, using fully diluted numbers of shares, and for the current situation (i.e. impending EPS). This is up from the prervious Edison valuation of 78p/share.
This compares with my  Dec 2017 valuation 103338
that estimated 87p/share for the corresponding 'time now' situation (i.e. my table 1).
They come at it using discounted cash flows for one scenario, whereas I mostly come at it the rather simpler way of using $/bbl for different reserves categories and again one scenario. That means they can run a sensitivity analysis for different oil prices which is helpful. Both are valid approaches at this stage, and there are others as well. Anyway 78, 81, and 87p are all very close to each other in the context of HUR. But let's hope this game lasts long enough to take a look at the later valuations I set out.
I can see some of you are confused as to how to interpret my tables in my 11 Dec 2017 valuation (see link above).
Look at table 1, line 2, which shows $5/bbl for pre-FOIL EPS yielding a EV of $311m for that line. Do the same for the other lines, add it all up, divide by the fully diluted number of shares, fiddle with exchange rates, and you get £0.87/share. That's just a sum representing a pre-FOIL value and the only real wet-finger-in-air bit is the $/bbl bit for the different reserves classifications for each block/sub-block. Every other number is basically taken straight from reports (well, one is a bit of a fiddle, the sharp eyes will notice it).
Now look at table 3, line 2, which shows $14.65/bbl for post-FOIL EPS yielding an EV of $910m for that line. The point is that I did a basic DCF for 10yrs production at $25/bbl margin to get $14.65 which is simple maths in a basic spreadsheet. That is an increase in $/bbl for having got from the "pre FOIL" condition to the "post-FOIL" condition, i.e. a significant reservoir and production system derisk. Similarly I have set out a likely appraisal (drilling etc) programme and described the assumed 50/50 success outcomes (i.e. success at proving up the 50/50 volumes), which affects the $/bbl for each line item, and I have explained (simplistically) how it is paid for. That yields £1.98/share when all the line items are totted up.
In both these (and the third, table 4) cases what is being described is a very simplistic fair expectation value for the sum of all the reservoir assets if sold together in a trade sale at each stage along the derisking & proving up pathway. The share price could (in principle) be higher or lower on the day of sale, indeed I would ordinarily expect the share price to be lower than the EV per share (would you buy into an overpriced share ?). However the share price might go higher or lower for a whole variety of rational and/or irrational reasons. That's the whole point of a market.
There are many (very many) other ways of doing these calculations, but I am a bear of little brain, and not much spare time, and this is a freebie, so that is why I am putting up these simplistic versions. If you have better plain vanilla numbers (e.g. if you have run DCFs for cold-start developments at different oil prices), or if you have better purchaser-specific numbers (e.g. if you have figured out the ullage in the various pipelines, and have worked out the available value/avoided tariff/etc) then please post them (HERE) and I am happy to look at them and chew over them. Given the right incentive I will also do more work myself, but seriously I am busy elsewhere.
I suggest you also trawl through the other significant posts by myself and others as there is quite a lot of background info as to what we are each worried about, and that is a pretty good pointer as to what risks would worry anybody else knowledgeable in the industry. Risks = low price.
The timeline I sketched out could be easily 4-years long. A lot can change in that time, including everything shifting right by a few years. Or left. Or going completely wrong for endogenous or exogenous reasons. Or whatever. As of now this is just a hole-in-the-ground-story-stock. One I happen to think is interesting, but nonetheless not a slam dunk. Never fall in love with a stock.