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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)


Postby Carcosa » June 8th, 2018, 10:15 am

dspp thanks for your 103338 and prior post. Seems a reasonable estimate given the subsequent info contained in the AR.

I don't see that it has much impact on "value".
Agreed not in the context of company 'value' but as a shareholder a 30% dilution is not welcome. Understand the need that to get where we are today/going' required those dilution terms. As far as retail investors go, other than a small minority, I do not believe the subject of dilution crosses people's minds. Institutional investors may be a different story. Those who benefit from the dilution may well find a need to sell shares in the open market (a little like Crystal Amber is doing at the moment) so this may well depress the share price.

Timing, company progress, price of oil and corporate activity are all factors which make predicting what will happen a futile exercise; what I would suggest however is that it is probably advantageous for retail investors to accumulate their final shareholding over the coming few weeks rather than leave it until later. But that would be timing the market which I have failed to do for my advantage for 25+ years!

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)


Postby dspp » June 11th, 2018, 7:27 pm

The folks on the LSE board have spotted an updated Edison note giving an 81p/share valuation, using fully diluted numbers of shares, and for the current situation (i.e. impending EPS). This is up from the prervious Edison valuation of 78p/share.

This compares with my 12 Dec 2017 valuation 103338 that estimated 87p/share for the corresponding 'time now' situation (i.e. my table 1).

They come at it using discounted cash flows for one scenario, whereas I mostly come at it the rather simpler way of using $/bbl for different reserves categories and again one scenario. That means they can run a sensitivity analysis for different oil prices which is helpful. Both are valid approaches at this stage, and there are others as well. Anyway 78, 81, and 87p are all very close to each other in the context of HUR. But let's hope this game lasts long enough to take a look at the later valuations I set out.

regards, dspp

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