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Examin Aminex

PeterGray
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Re: Examin Aminex

#151771

Postby PeterGray » July 11th, 2018, 4:02 pm

The important thing, though pipsmum, is the deal.

Yes, they've had to give up a lot of their working interest in Ruvuma, but they get free carried to production, and on the seismic and C-1 well, which could add a lot of value, plus a bit of cash. They are now in a far better position than before, where they had potentially v large resources in the ground, but not the funds to satisfy their licence obligations and move things forward.

A pull back is no surprise, there are many holders who will have been only too happy to exit at today's highs, but this lays the foundations for much more significant moves, and I'd expect to see some more SP strength over the next week or two, as the news gets digested.

Peter

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Re: Examin Aminex

#151991

Postby Pipsmum » July 12th, 2018, 2:53 pm

Thank you. Yesterdays blip enabled a tiny partial sale of some of the cheaper shares bought @2.28 then sold @2.93 and then a rebuy today of exactly the same shares at the profited price, so a free extra 1732 shares obtained with a tiny mini profit and still allowing for the two sales commishes. Just too slow to decide during the speedy blip to obtain the much higher price of 3.4 as it lasted just moments. Now in the same position as the day before yesterday but with more shares. A tiny bit more patience could have improved that further this afternoon but it's still good.

Now more waiting.... it will be very interesting to see what happens now.

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Re: Examin Aminex

#152092

Postby BobGe » July 13th, 2018, 2:28 am

PeterGray wrote:...I'd expect to see some more SP strength over the next week or two, as the news gets digested.

The time scales and likely news vacuum make me wonder... Recent s/p action is reminiscent of the AEX of old, don't you think?
Happy to be wrong!

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Re: Examin Aminex

#152120

Postby PeterGray » July 13th, 2018, 9:52 am

You may be right about the time scales, and the next two weeks may be looking optimistic today for much SP strength! But while the price action seems reminiscent of some past AEX history (and which probably explains some of it), the position they appear to be in now looks very different to me. They now have an operator with experience, deep pockets and Tanzanian connections, and a funding deal to production at a reasonable starting rate, plus carry for drilling and 3D that should increase that potential significantly. Of course the interest is the field is down more than hoped or expected (I'd guess most were looking at more like half the existing interest - 37.5%, not 25%). But they also didn't have an ongoing explo licence.

AEX has been drifting over the this year as with the KN-1 problems they didn't have the resources to move forward, and I suspect, satisfy TPDC that they would make good use of a licence extension. That has now changed. I'd expect to hear of the licence extension being signed fairly soon (though it could wait till the farm out is finalised)

Yes this will not happen as quickly as many hope - C-1 may well take to the end of the year to spud by the time all is signed off, but there will be news on the licence, and hopefully moves forward on KN being discussed in the meantime.

But AEX is certainly worth more today that 2 days ago in my view. And has the potential to be worth a fair bit more again over the next 12-18 months.

Peter

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Re: Examin Aminex

#152390

Postby BobGe » July 15th, 2018, 5:10 am

Don't disagree although we've not had any news on the depletion issue and compressor, have we?
Seems like time's available for people to sell down and look to buying back later.

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Re: Examin Aminex

#152401

Postby PeterGray » July 15th, 2018, 9:22 am

I agree re the lack of news re KN-1. There's apparently a presentation on Monday, which I'd assume will be made available, and has to address that. I wasn't at the AGM, so I've no idea if questions were asked on the subject, and what any answers might have been.

Peter


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