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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#172857

Postby NigWit » October 10th, 2018, 6:51 pm

I noticed this in Crystal Amber's annual final results:

"It is expected that no single investment in any one company will represent more than 20% of the Gross Asset Value of the Company at the time of investment. However, there is no guarantee that this will be the case after any investment is made, or where the Investment Manager believes that an investment is particularly attractive."

In previous years the stated percentage has been 30% so based on that and today’s commentary my reading is that Crystal Amber’s BoD have given Richard Bernstein consent to hold 20% of their fund as Hurricane for the current financial year and that he will trade in and out to maximize his exposure within this limit as the price of Hurricane shares relative to Crystal Amber’s other holdings permits.
---------

references

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-n ... al_Results

Scan down to the heading 'Investment Restrictions'.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#172909

Postby Dierich » October 10th, 2018, 10:44 pm

Carcos

You started this thread but are you making money ?

LOL

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#173817

Postby dspp » October 15th, 2018, 10:05 am

Released : 15/10/2018 07:00 = RNS Number : 9677D

Sail-away of the Aoka Mizu FPSO

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, is pleased to announce sail-away of the Aoka Mizu FPSO.

The Aoka Mizu FPSO has now departed Dubai, following sea trials, and will sail to Rotterdam for completion of a final scope of work before proceeding to the Lancaster field.

The vessel, which will be used in Hurricane's Early Production System development of the Lancaster field, has been undergoing a programme of repair, upgrade and life extension works at the Drydocks World Dubai shipyard.

The final stage of preparations at the field was a programme of rock dumping to protect sub-sea infrastructure, which has been successfully completed.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... ws-service

*********************

and Q4 presentation up

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/~/media ... ECURED.pdf

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... sentations

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#173979

Postby NigWit » October 15th, 2018, 7:09 pm

From The Investor's Chronicle today. (My italics)

"Shares in Hurricane Energy (HUR) are up 2 per cent this morning, after the North Sea driller announced its floating production, storage and offloading vessel has set sail for the Lancaster field, following successful sea trials in Dubai. The group has also said first oil from the Lancaster early production system could come before the end of the year."

Link for subscribers

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/sh ... erie-more/

Carcosa
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#174021

Postby Carcosa » October 16th, 2018, 5:46 am

The group has also said first oil from the Lancaster early production system could come before the end of the year."


Following your link it actually says The group has also said first oil from the Lancaster early production system should come in 2019.

Perhaps you read an earlier uncorrected version.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#175804

Postby dspp » October 23rd, 2018, 4:46 pm

I just checked something in the 2018 Q4 presentation, partly caused by the news that there is a HUR roadshow going on in USA at present.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... sentations

Anyway on slide 21 it looks to me as if the tie-back distance for 205-26b-B (Lincoln appraisal) and 205-26b-C (Warwick appraisal) are 8km and 6km respectively. That's straight line distance from where I think the corresponding drill locations would be, to where I think the AM FPSO centre is.

I appreciate that they've only ordered up one set of long-lead items for the first GWA-tie back to be selected from the 3x 2019 GWA appraisal wells, but it does suggest that they will have a meaningful choice about which (two) of the three to tie back in the first instance. It also suggests that subsequently they could tie the other one back and do interference testing (obviously beaning in a GLA producer to make room) at some point if that was worthwhile from a res-eng perspective.

Are others reading this the same way ?

regards, dspp

PeterGray
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#175814

Postby PeterGray » October 23rd, 2018, 5:35 pm

It certainly looks possible, and it would certainly make sense, so while I hadn't been reading it that way, it must look a strong possibility if things work as hoped.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#175957

Postby FabianBjornseth » October 24th, 2018, 11:55 am

dspp wrote:I just checked something in the 2018 Q4 presentation, partly caused by the news that there is a HUR roadshow going on in USA at present.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... sentations

Anyway on slide 21 it looks to me as if the tie-back distance for 205-26b-B (Lincoln appraisal) and 205-26b-C (Warwick appraisal) are 8km and 6km respectively. That's straight line distance from where I think the corresponding drill locations would be, to where I think the AM FPSO centre is.

I appreciate that they've only ordered up one set of long-lead items for the first GWA-tie back to be selected from the 3x 2019 GWA appraisal wells, but it does suggest that they will have a meaningful choice about which (two) of the three to tie back in the first instance. It also suggests that subsequently they could tie the other one back and do interference testing (obviously beaning in a GLA producer to make room) at some point if that was worthwhile from a res-eng perspective.

Are others reading this the same way ?

regards, dspp


In the Edison interview it was specified that it is the Lincoln well that will be tied back, though it was not elaborated upon. The answer is to the "What is the rationale for the well locations..." question.

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co ... ane-energy

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#175966

Postby dspp » October 24th, 2018, 12:35 pm

Thanks Fabian, missed that. Nonetheless that other well is also in range for tie-back to AM if required.

Equally the distance between the NE and SW appraisal wells that are planned is about 16km. One can pretty much see where they expect to place the FPSO that they envisage for this GWA development*, with the initial 6-wells.

So that will be an approx 120,000 b/d vessel I would expect (say, sized for 6 x 20kbp). Assume 90% uptime and that gives 39-years to drain GWA. In the upside case either they'll try to get a bigger vessel, or put a second processing unit (vessel or fixed) on the field. Interesting sizing & location issues to explore.

regards, dspp

* same link, first time I had clocked that they had publically said provisional preference for FPSO for GWA FFD.

Dierich
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#177239

Postby Dierich » October 30th, 2018, 8:25 pm

pij

wished l'd flogged more at 38p, some folk hang on forever no good this day and age...

loads left...

GL...

StepOne
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#178580

Postby StepOne » November 6th, 2018, 4:49 pm

Oil and Gas sector is down about 10% in the last month or so. I guess Hurricane remains in the high-risk category. Will be good to get some oil flowing. This time next year.....!!!

StepOne

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#179922

Postby dspp » November 13th, 2018, 10:01 am

RNS: 13 November 2018

Hurricane Energy plc - Operational Update

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, provides an update on the passage of the Aoka Mizu FPSO from Dubai to Rotterdam.

The Aoka Mizu FPSO has put into Algeciras, Spain for planned personnel changes and bunkering. This stopover will be extended to undertake a repair to an auxiliary system associated with power generation. Commissioning activities which were being undertaken during transit will continue.

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#180074

Postby FabianBjornseth » November 13th, 2018, 7:36 pm

dspp wrote:RNS: 13 November 2018

The Aoka Mizu FPSO has put into Algeciras, Spain for planned personnel changes and bunkering. This stopover will be extended to undertake a repair to an auxiliary system associated with power generation. Commissioning activities which were being undertaken during transit will continue.


Obviously not good news - the statement is vague on the issue, hopefully it will not cause a long delay. This underlines that operational risk is not gone, and never will be.

PeterGray
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#180085

Postby PeterGray » November 13th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Well it's hardly bad news either.

This is effectively AM's maiden voyage and a minor system needs some work after several weeks at sea. Worst case it may delay things a bit, if they need some sort of spare that takes a while to source, but it not likely to have any impact on HUR reaching the target date range for FOIL that they have been advertising for some time.

If I didn't have enough this would look a great buying point.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#182206

Postby LocalBob » November 22nd, 2018, 8:53 am

Hurricane article on bloomberg. It does not add anything we don't already know, however it's adds to the general visability of Hurricane to a much wider investor audience.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ic-bedrock

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#182242

Postby NigWit » November 22nd, 2018, 10:32 am

I should be very grateful and interested to learn Fabian's views on that Bloomberg piece.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#182431

Postby FabianBjornseth » November 22nd, 2018, 11:42 pm

NigWit wrote:I should be very grateful and interested to learn Fabian's views on that Bloomberg piece.


I'll be happy to oblige :)

The article does a decent job of explaining the fractured basement concept in layman's terms. The author seemed to confuse the FPSO with the planned LinWar drilling for 2019, but the reservoir/geology discussion looks okay to me. BP's public reservations were already known, and I have no insight to whether private views are at all different.

Half the article reads as a hagiography on Dr Trice, which helps frame the story but isn't useful for making investment decisions. Keep in mind that in this industry it is very possible to do excellent subsurface work and still find the results disappointing. "Managing uncertainty for value" is a popular training course, but managing uncertainty does not mean controlling the outcome.

The blog post referenced reads as if the authors did not have all the information that is now out in public, as they list viscosity as a concern. But their general point is still true - reserves are not proven until they are proven, and so far most of Hurricane's are not.

Hurricane has in my view done a very good job appraising the resources on Lancaster, and the EPS is a natural next step, as long term productivity data is the missing element. To me the chances of success look good, and the chances of the two wells producing for 10 years could be close to 100% from a subsurface side. But the chances of a 500 mmbbls development are less than that by some margin, as you just dont know how well connected the reservoir is. This goes for any reservoir, not just fractured basement, and there are some ugly examples of new developments writing down reserves by >90% due to poor connectivity.

Overall the piece did not provide much news to anyone who frequents these forums. Neither have I, looking back at the post I've just written. 2019 should be more fun.

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#182455

Postby NigWit » November 23rd, 2018, 8:17 am

Thank you Fabian. I suppose the best we can say for now is that in a few months someone will be saying a very loud “told you so! We’d better hope it’s Dr Trice. Meanwhile, it’s a sporty investment with a range of potential outcomes and much more potential gain than potential loss for those who are careful.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#182469

Postby dspp » November 23rd, 2018, 9:41 am

Fabian,

Viscosity is one of the key concerns in Clair. As somebody (wellwell) has pointed out on LSE, it looks like the journalists have mixed up aspects of Clair and Rona in that article you commented on.

By the way I still have not found any good (and free) ResEng papers on Clair. The snippets I pick up are very like this one, (http://www.landforms.eu/shetland/oil%20 ... etland.htm)

The Faeroe-Shetland Basin began to develop in the Permian Period and continued to subside throughout the Mesozoic and Tertiary Eras. Oil and gas migrated from the Kimmeridge Clay source rock into a ridge of much older Devonian and Carboniferous rocks that separates the two basins. The Clair field is located on this ridge and contains a vast amount of oil. The oil is trapped in fractured Devonian and Carboniferous reservoir rocks. Much younger muddy sediments of the Upper Cretaceous cover the ridge and prevent the oil from escaping to the surface. The fractures and faults in the older rock allow the oil to rise easily to the highest part of the ridge. The fractures are only occasionally cut by a well so whether a well will produce a sufficient amount of oil to be profitable is very difficult to predict. The oil has been biodegraded by bacteria that were carried into the oilfield by water when the field was almost uncovered during the Cretaceous Period. As a result of the biodegradation the oil in the Clair field is a lot more viscous than normal North Sea oils and does not flow rapidly.

I hear people continually saying, "why don't BP just drill deeper". If they have viscous oil in their basement, then - even if it is as fractured and connected as Rona is thought to be - just poking a hole in it won't do them any good. So anyone suggesting that BP are ignoring whatever is in front of their faces, also needs to explain how the not-that-much-deeper oil is going to be significantly less viscous. If there is depth-related viscosity in Clair it should show up in whatever is being produced. Anyway I'm quite sure BP etc will have looked at this, as Clair has been studied intensively for decades.

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#182470

Postby dspp » November 23rd, 2018, 9:47 am

By the way, this makes interesting reading
https://itportal.ogauthority.co.uk/web_ ... /P1933.pdf

:)

(It may be one of the reasons they were seemingly very cautious about mud weight going into Halifax)


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