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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#191503

Postby dspp » January 6th, 2019, 2:39 pm

NigWit wrote:DSPP - do you see any possibility that the poster on ADVFN is put there by the company, or that they turn a blind eye, to try and calm things since they can't switch off the AIS data?


No I don't think that deliberate leaking is at all likely. However it has also occurred to me (as well as to you) that they may have turned a blind eye to it until now on the basis that it was just gossipy stuff. But that can't go on much longer because material events & data will be happening soon.

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#191517

Postby PeterGray » January 6th, 2019, 3:41 pm

However it has also occurred to me (as well as to you) that they may have turned a blind eye to it until now on the basis that it was just gossipy stuff

I suspect it is a real leak, and not someone making it up. However, as you say, nothing that has been said so far has really been news to anyone following what's going on. If there is a leak then he or she are being pretty careful about what they say. I'd agree, though, that if they were start to leak anything significant or newsworthy then the company would need to take firm action. I would suspect they won't, though the principal is clearly important.

On the other hand we are now in an age where we can all monitor AM's progress and hypothesise what it means. If leaks remain pretty much restricted to that sort of information, then maybe they're not worth bothering with?

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192015

Postby FabianBjornseth » January 8th, 2019, 8:01 pm

Today's interview with Robert Trice on EnergyVoice is a very interesting read:

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/189604/hurricane-boss-plans-seamless-execution-of-drilling-campaigns-off-shetland/

A future is laid out here where the Rona Ridge could have a number of FPSOs producing from a relatively small geographical area. This sounds quite unconventional, but I can see how the requirement for gradual derisking of the geology as well as the corporate situation might make it the most feasible solution.

Investors looking for rapid monetization from a farm-out to big oil might not be thrilled by this plan, but it is essentially no different from what Hurricane have already announced to do on the GWA with Spirit. Just now we are seeing that this could be repeated many times for a Lancaster FFD, Halifax FFD, GWA FPSO #2 and so on.

It would be very interesting to look at some numbers on how the discount rate affects value, and the cost of multiple FPSOs compared to a 600'000 bopd FFD. If the upside volumes in GLA and GWA were to come in, there would really have to be a lot of 60-80 000 bopd FPSOs to extract the oil within say 30 years. I have some trouble seeing this happening as presented here, but it's very good that a plan is being laid out that doesn't necessarily require one of the supermajors to come in. When the development size is small enough that one of the mid-sized companies like Spirit or Neptune could realistically be the operators, a buyer's strike should become much more difficult to execute.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192024

Postby dspp » January 8th, 2019, 8:55 pm

Seems like they want to do spiral development via a series of IFDs :) It is certainly one way at it. I had only anticipated one FPSO IFD as a step to a FFD, and of course as a bootstrapping way of breaking a buyers strike. I wonder how suboptimal a string of them are ?

Anyway from this I gleaned one piece of new info "The first three GWA wells will be identical to the Lancaster producers with the exception of the downhole pressure gauges.". To me this suggests they don't have downhole gauges in Lancaster (either memory or surface/wellhead connected) which was one of my unanswered queries. So this suggests that they will have to use THP data for interference testing in Lancaster, or do well intervention. Does anyone know differently ?

Oh, and a bit more detail on the Halifax damage.

Regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192037

Postby FabianBjornseth » January 8th, 2019, 9:38 pm

dspp wrote:Seems like they want to do spiral development via a series of IFDs :) It is certainly one way at it. I had only anticipated one FPSO IFD as a step to a FFD, and of course as a bootstrapping way of breaking a buyers strike. I wonder how suboptimal a string of them are ?

Anyway from this I gleaned one piece of new info "The first three GWA wells will be identical to the Lancaster producers with the exception of the downhole pressure gauges.". To me this suggests they don't have downhole gauges in Lancaster (either memory or surface/wellhead connected) which was one of my unanswered queries. So this suggests that they will have to use THP data for interference testing in Lancaster, or do well intervention. Does anyone know differently ?

Oh, and a bit more detail on the Halifax damage.

Regards, dspp


It is detailed in the Lancaster CPR:

"The EPS is planned for a period of six years consisting of two horizontal wells (205/21a-6 and 205/21a-7Z) tied back to the Bluewater Energy Services B.V. Aoka Mizu FPSO vessel. Both wells will be completed during Q2 2018 with dual ESPs on variable speed drives to provide artificial lift, reducing the drawdown required to achieve stable producing rates and maintain pressure/temperature of the subsea flowlines to avoid wax deposition. Both wells are expected to produce via dedicated flowlines and dedicated multiphase flow meters. They will be also equipped with downhole pressure and temperature gauges."

So this part of the interview is confusing - maybe just a misunderstanding from the author?

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192110

Postby PeterGray » January 9th, 2019, 9:19 am

Seems like they want to do spiral development via a series of IFDs :) It is certainly one way at it. I had only anticipated one FPSO IFD as a step to a FFD, and of course as a bootstrapping way of breaking a buyers strike. I wonder how suboptimal a string of them are ?

I would wonder too - though not in a position to make a serious judgment!

However, I think your point about a buyers strike is the key. I doubt HUR really see GLA and/or GWA being developed in small steps with multiple FPSOs, but I can understand it is important that they have a viable plan to keep appraising and developing the fields for as long as it takes for a serious suitor, with deep pockets, to appear on a white charger (or however they appear these days WoS).

No one thought they would be where they are now - the assumption was, and I'm sure HUR's aim was to have FO'd or sold out by now, but they've very successfully put up two fingers to the striking buyers and got themselves into a position where they can prove up a lot more value, and start generating meaningful cash. They've played it very well so far, and I'd assume the plan is more of the same until a good offer appears - and if it doesn't they will keep throwing off cash alone (and with Spirit) . It may not prove the most efficient route to market for the oil, but it will be a lot better for HUR than selling out cheap from a weak position.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192112

Postby dspp » January 9th, 2019, 9:20 am

FB,

Thanks, I'd missed that. I wonder what the message was that Trice was intending to convey.

So they have downhole gauges in the two Lan EPS wells, presumably at the ESPs. Do we know the setting depth of the ESPs ? These are not deep reservoirs.

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192121

Postby dspp » January 9th, 2019, 9:43 am

PeterGray wrote:Seems like they want to do spiral development via a series of IFDs :) It is certainly one way at it. I had only anticipated one FPSO IFD as a step to a FFD, and of course as a bootstrapping way of breaking a buyers strike. I wonder how suboptimal a string of them are ?

I would wonder too - though not in a position to make a serious judgment!

However, I think your point about a buyers strike is the key. I doubt HUR really see GLA and/or GWA being developed in small steps with multiple FPSOs, but I can understand it is important that they have a viable plan to keep appraising and developing the fields for as long as it takes for a serious suitor, with deep pockets, to appear on a white charger (or however they appear these days WoS).

No one thought they would be where they are now - the assumption was, and I'm sure HUR's aim was to have FO'd or sold out by now, but they've very successfully put up two fingers to the striking buyers and got themselves into a position where they can prove up a lot more value, and start generating meaningful cash. They've played it very well so far, and I'd assume the plan is more of the same until a good offer appears - and if it doesn't they will keep throwing off cash alone (and with Spirit) . It may not prove the most efficient route to market for the oil, but it will be a lot better for HUR than selling out cheap from a weak position.


Agree. Provided that they can get gas export resolved at a meaningful scale they can do this sequentially. It might not even be that suboptimal, but without knowing how much is known (i.e. how long an appraisal campaign would need to be to enable/justify a one-shot FFD decision) one cannot be sure how suboptimal it might be. Therefore I think OGA might be very tolerant from here on in - provided they see that gas export being inserted timeously.

I've seen folk chatting about leasing FPSOs etc. There are a few misunderstandings flying around. The advantages of FPSOs in shallow water (which Rona Ridge is) vs fixed platforms are :
1) onshore/alongside build & integrate & initial commission;
2) relocatable in event of reservoir fizzle;
3) provide own storage & offtake, i.e. no SPAR or oil pipeline needed for export;
4) can be, but don't need to be, leased, i.e. moves balance sheet cost elsewhere (but that still has to be paid for);
5) faster to first oil from decision, esp if a suitable second-hand or conversion exists;
6) 9-months of year for WoS hook-up, not 3-month for WoS heavy lifts (very pertinent right now); don't need offshore heavy lifts at all.

Disadvantages are:
1) Scale tends to be limited to about 130,000 bpd in these environments for typical off-the-shelf stuff*;
2) More costly to build, and to operate;
3) Tend to have shorter lifetimes, or have to come off-station for a mid-life refit;
4) Force a subsea well development as opposed to either platform wells, or hybrid platform & subsea;
5) Can have constraints on the number of turret/buoy interfaces. Technology has moved on in this area since I was last involved in an FPSO project and there are ways around it, but this can be a significant issue. However prolific wells would mean less are needed !

An interesting development challenge, which can clearly be done without needing to resort to a major now that Spirit has come onside (for LinWar). Ideally a major would be involved, but really they could get away with another medium sized company (=Spirit) now for the LanFax part. Oh and there is Whirwind to be drilled at some point before it times-out.

regards,
dspp

* you can go much larger. The original Schiehallion Suezmax could accomodate 200,000 bopd liquids, and lasted 15-years before it was shagged out. The newer Glen Lyon replacement can do 320,000 bopd. But these are very capex intensive and in Rona water depths very difficult to justify for the sequential field development strategy we are discussing (or at least HUR are proposing as a way of turning a negative into a positive).

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#192872

Postby dspp » January 11th, 2019, 7:45 pm

Courtesy DiveCentre on LSE and laserdisc on advfn:

Petrofac Facilities Management Ltd (PFML) propose to drill an appraisal well in the Lincoln field, west of Shetland. The well
is in approximately 162 m of water. It will be drilled using the Transocean Leader, an anchored semi-submersible mobile drilling rig. The drilling rig requires that its eight anchors and ground chains are pre-laid on the seabed, which will commence on 15 January. The locations of these anchors are given in the Rig List section of the bulletin, with each of chains running in towards the central well location.

Transocean Leader Lincoln Field 60°07.102’N 003°55.085’W 1st February 2019 80 Days


https://api.seafish.co.uk/index.php/file/5017 - see p6

So the first of the three Spirit wells for 2019. Interesting that the water depth increases in that area. Should be RNSs coming steadily through the whole year.

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#193156

Postby Carcosa » January 13th, 2019, 9:05 am

I would say those accounts are meaningless. Apart from them being out of date, Pelham Capital Ltd is a subsidiary and they are a Hedge fund; at one time the controlling group were/are managing over $4billion. There are likely to be huge swings in their reported annual performance.

Also be aware that http://pelham-capitalltd.com/ is a scam company (see https://www.fca.org.uk/news/warnings/pe ... -ltd-clone ) so make sure you are looking at the right set of accounts ;-)

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#195229

Postby dspp » January 21st, 2019, 11:19 am

RNS 21 January 2019

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, provides an operational update in relation to the Early Production System development of the Lancaster field.

During the buoy hook-up operation on 18 January 2019, the rope being used to pull in the buoy became snagged and it was not possible to complete the hook-up operation. The rope has now been freed and the buoy returned to its starting position. Due to the predicted deterioration in weather conditions, the Aoka Mizu FPSO has returned to the Cromarty Firth to complete remediation work on the buoy pull-in system and prepare for the next opportunity to pull in the buoy.

A further announcement will be issued once hook-up has been successfully completed


https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/ ... id=1226567

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#195901

Postby dspp » January 23rd, 2019, 5:54 pm


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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#196411

Postby dspp » January 25th, 2019, 11:15 am

RNS some share incentive scheme awards
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... ws-service

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#197873

Postby Carcosa » January 31st, 2019, 10:50 am

Extract from a note recently issued by Edison

(A reminder that there is more than just Aoki Mizu hookup to look forward to ;-) )

"Warwick: Two fractured basement wells in 2019

Hurricane has been focusing on progressing the development of its 523mmbbl (2P +2C) Lancaster field to first oil on schedule from its Early Production System (EPS) in H119. The EPS is targeting between 37.3mmbbl for a six-year period and 62mmbbl for a 10-year duration. The Aoka Mizu FPSO is currently in the Cromarty Firth [At time of this post it's actually trying to hook up] and hook up operations are ongoing. In September 2018 the company announced that it had farmed out 50% of the Greater Warwick Area (GWA), immediately adjacent to Lancaster and covering its Lincoln and Warwick licences, to Spirit Energy. This provides additional funding that will allow Hurricane to accelerate the de-risking of the GWA, commencing with a three-well drilling programme in Q2/Q319, including two exploration wells in Warwick.

The GWA encompasses Lincoln, discovered by Hurricane’s 2016 well, 205/26b-12, together with Warwick, which has yet to be drilled. 205/26b-12 established that Lincoln was a separate accumulation to Lancaster, based on the large differences (>500m) seen in the interpreted oil water contact depths of the two structures. Hurricane attributes the barrier effect between Lancaster and Lincoln to the Brynhild Fault Zone, and has also identified a splay system of large-scale faults that may further intersect the GWA. Warwick has been independently assessed by RPS to hold P50 prospective resources of 935mmboe with a COS of 77%.

The two Warwick wells, together with an appraisal well in Lincoln will be located so that one well will be drilled in each potential fault compartment, allowing drill stem test (DST) pressure data to be used to determine whether the large-scale faults are acting as pressure barriers. Each of the wells will have a 1km horizontal section through the reservoir and will be logged and tested. The wells will all be drilled at different reservoir depths, ranging between 1,770m and 1,900m, and this should also allow an oil gradient to be defined from DST pressures if no fault compartmentalisation is seen (Hurricane’s experience in collecting pressure data and samples using wireline tools in basement reservoirs is that it is challenging, and no such pressures or samples were recovered in 205/26b-12). One of the Warwick wells, 205/26b-C, will be drilled below structural closure to demonstrate oil flow from this deeper section.

Hurricane is fully carried up to a maximum of $180.6m gross on its share of work programme and the Transocean Leader semi-submersible has been contracted to carry out the work."


I had hoped drilling would have commenced February but seems like the start date has been pushed back even further due to delays with the Transocean Leader and their current contract.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#198747

Postby dspp » February 4th, 2019, 10:51 am

For those interested, a rope broke during the Saturday operations, nobody hurt, nothing damaged:

Released : 04/02/2019 07:00

RNS Number : 9106O Hurricane Energy PLC 04 February 2019
Operational Update
During the buoy hook-up operation on 2 February 2019, immediately prior to engaging the latches in the turret to lock the buoy into position, the pull-in rope failed. There were no injuries to personnel or damage to the Aoka Mizu. A survey of the buoy by remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) confirmed that it has returned to its starting position and is not damaged. The Aoka Mizu is returning to the Cromarty Firth to await delivery of a new pull-in rope. A further announcement will be issued once hook-up has been successfully completed.


https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... ws-service

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#198819

Postby dspp » February 4th, 2019, 1:27 pm

FB,

OK I'll bite. I was once an offshore person, and separately I was once a seafarer(i.e. not just a yottie). You are talking about a 100,000 tonne vessel and a 1,200 tonne buoy being mated in a dynamic environment where both are moving independently of each other up until the moment of engagement. The rope that tensions the buoy up into the turret immediately prior to the latches engaging (so that you are not 'just' relying on sloppy uncontrolled buoyancy forces that are affected by the swell & waves & currents) is not 'just' a bit of string, and there will be relatively little margin. At sea, things like this do fail from time to time, and whilst I have never seen one fail with my own eyes, I have over the years read plenty of incident reports, many of them with unhappy endings. All credit to them for managing the operation safely in difficult circumstances. That said I am sure there are lessons to be identified and re-learnt. But leave it to the people doing the job, and make sure that they are under no pressure whatsoever. I don't care how many bits of rope they break, provided that no-one gets hurt.

regards,
dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#198823

Postby PeterGray » February 4th, 2019, 1:33 pm

I can't claim any professional expertise Fred, but I don't see it as that surprising. They are trying to hook up the AM in what are marginal conditions, and I think we can be pretty sure they would have designed the pull up rope to be the weakest link, far better for that to break than for the winch to break, or to cause structural damage to the buoy or FPSO. The loads will increase massively with the seastate, and it's midwinter WoS, so they have the choice of sitting tight for 3 months or so for something approaching a calm or they try to do the best with the opportunities that present themselves even when they are not ideal. Frankly to me the idea of trying to pull a close fitting 1200 ton buoy into a 66000 gross ton FPSO with "only" 2m of swell running - with a few cross waves on top for added interest - sounds more exciting than I'd want to be doing. Provided they think they can do it safely, without injury or major damage (and we have to assume they do) then I'm quite happy for them to keep trying rather than head off the Caribbean for some sun bathing till the summer, even if they do snapp a few pull up ropes!

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#198959

Postby mearnsfool » February 5th, 2019, 12:15 am

Fred,

Can I suggest you stop commenting on things you have no knoledge of from your previous onshore experiance.

Please leave the installation expertise to do the job and stop making a fool of yourself, that you have with your comments to date.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#198978

Postby NigWit » February 5th, 2019, 7:20 am

From today’s Times

‘Hurricane tied up by rope snag

A further setback for Hurricane Energy in the mooring of a floating production vessel to the west of Shetland sent its shares lower yesterday (Greig Cameron writes).

Despite the latest of a number of recent setbacks, Hurricane hopes to start taking oil out of its Lancaster site by June.

The company is initially developing only a portion of the Lancaster field and hopes to prove its theories on geological formations known as fractured basements, which lie below where oil reservoirs have typically been found. Even independent forecasts have suggested that the company’s acreage in the west of Shetland could hold 2.6 billion barrels of oil.

The profile of Hurricane, founded in 2005 and listed on Aim in 2014, has risen in recent years because of its finds in one of the UK continental shelf’s least explored areas.

It had achieved several engineering milestones on Lancaster before the worst of the winter weather halted work. However, it said that a rope had failed while hooking up a buoy to the Aoka Mizu, the production vessel being used. Last month a rope became snagged in the hook-up phase, causing a delay. Its shares fell 3¼p, or 6.5 per cent, to 46½p.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thin ... -kclb2qlg9

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#198999

Postby dspp » February 5th, 2019, 9:31 am

FredBloggs wrote:OK perhaps I am being particularly thick today, but just what is wrong with this statement?
But in almost five decades in the industry on shore, I have never known anything as trivial as a rope snapping cause such a serious operation to be aborted.

Apart from anything else, I am very grateful that nobody was seriously hurt, or much worse, when this happened. Certainly, on shore such an event would be formally investigated as a "near miss" in any O&G company I have ever worked with. I am a little surprised by seemingly blase views around "oh, it's just a rope that snapped".


Fred,

But it is NOT onshore. Onshore we lift big lumps with the benefit of a fixed ground under both the source and the destination, and ordinarily only with wind forces. Offshore everything is moving, and fluctuating forces due to water effects are far far greater than forces due to wind effects.

It is a significant incident, which will need properly investigating and understanding, which may be a extremely quick process if the documentation is in good order (i.e. much faster than the delivery & install of the next rope, or the arrival of the relevant weather windows). If you read my comment yesterday you'll know that I have read many such incident reports over the years, and I'm not downplaying it. But it is important to keep a sense of perspective, and to understand the reality of the forces in play.

If you were to think of this as being a fuse that failed when pushing a circuit to its limit whilst testing a power supply that drifts slightly, then you have approximately the correct analogy. In this case a MW-scale fuse, not a 13A domestic fuse.

regards, dspp


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