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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#211027

Postby dspp » March 28th, 2019, 11:28 am

HUR: Hurricane Energy plc, ......... announces its final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2018.

http://ir1.q4europe.com/IR/Files/RNSNew ... 263031.pdf

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/downloa ... ce/457/222

Focus on technical reserves to make point of scale

Clear use of term "supergiant" for both GWA and GLA.

Whirlwind and GLA appraisal drilling from own resources (GWA from Spirit)

FID on debottleneck & GWA tieback end Q3 2019, leads likely to doubling of EPS reserves in 2019 (62 >> 100+)

Hint that AM might be 10-year plus, i.e. plus

Hint that may be considering not using ESPs for FFD if initial natural flow enough (my opinion: alternativs are fit for but not with, or plan for gas lift if GOR high enough (also mops up gas in additional compression energy))

WOSPS gas export tie in planning proceeding, (interesting sizing problem imho)

good notes re down hole gauges, still unsure whether memory gauges, wellhead data access, or plans to tie-back for info acquisition (i.e. FO to wellheads)

more mature acceptance that HUR is : explorer, developer, producer (i.e. not just find & flip)

non-cash $42m bond loss (forex valuation methinks, sounds like Brexit ...)

No additional data, so my latest quickie valuations from 15-Sep-2018 still stand unchanged : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796&start=100#p166573

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#211209

Postby dspp » March 29th, 2019, 9:10 am

29 March 2019 Hurricane Energy plc Block Listing Application

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, announces that a block listing application has been made to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading on AIM of up to 29,860,834 ordinary shares of £0.001 each ("Ordinary Shares").

The application relates to Ordinary Shares that could be issued as a result of the potential exercise of warrants and subscription rights associated with the Company's April 2016 fundraising. In connection with the fundraising the Company issued to Crystal Amber Fund Limited warrants to subscribe for up to 23,333,333 Ordinary Shares at a price of £0.20 per share (the "Warrants"), which expire on 10 May 2019. The Company also provided Kerogen Investments No. 18 Limited with the right, in the event of exercise of the Warrants, to subscribe for up to such number of Ordinary Shares as would result in it holding the same percentage interest in the share capital of the Company as it held prior to the Warrants being exercised. This subscription right also has an exercise price of £0.20 per share.

When issued, the shares will rank pari passu in all respects with the existing issued Ordinary Shares of the Company. The Company will confirm total voting rights regularly in compliance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investo ... atory-news

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#212613

Postby dspp » April 4th, 2019, 11:22 am


JoyofBrex8889
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#212835

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 5th, 2019, 6:40 am

Thanks for that Dspp, a very interesting read. After a frustrating wait for hookup and with a lot of work still to do I am a bit sceptical that the H12019 FOIL will happen on time. That said, a few weeks delay is tolerable in what Edison are modelling as a multi decade opportunity.

The cash flow graph I thought was quite reassuring, though again I am somewhat worried that implementing the important gas export solution might yet be more costly than the estimate. The compression solution install on the AM sounds complicated: as a non engineer I am unsure how difficult that might be with all the hydrocarbon already flowing on board.

I am holding with great anticipation. My wallet would love to see the Edison note proved correct!

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#212870

Postby dspp » April 5th, 2019, 9:29 am

JoyofBrex8889 wrote: The compression solution install on the AM sounds complicated: as a non engineer I am unsure how difficult that might be with all the hydrocarbon already flowing on board.!


It is pretty normal. That is how people like me earn our money, and get our grey hairs. I'm not saying it is easy mind you.
- dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#212965

Postby FabianBjornseth » April 5th, 2019, 3:08 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUuS-PT2qbg

A 20 minute interview with the CEO with no real revelations and endless softball questions from the interviewer that borders on sycophantic. The only value I got out of it was a brief acknowledgement that the Warwick well could come in dry. I wonder if there are any contingency targets, as in that case there wouldn't be much point in drilling a second dry producer?

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#212974

Postby dspp » April 5th, 2019, 3:41 pm

FabianBjornseth wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUuS-PT2qbg

A 20 minute interview with the CEO with no real revelations and endless softball questions from the interviewer that borders on sycophantic. The only value I got out of it was a brief acknowledgement that the Warwick well could come in dry. I wonder if there are any contingency targets, as in that case there wouldn't be much point in drilling a second dry producer?


I agree, the interviewer (MGW) isn't exactly incisive is he. When I listened yesterday RT did say a couple of other things I picked up on:

1. "Facility (ies)" not FPSO (s). So that acknowledges there is a debate going on internally (and with Spirit) as to what mix of surface & (by-implication) subsurface development solutions is optimal. It doesn't really matter, unless you want a quick first oil out of GWA FFD :). Personally I could see a mixed solution with as big an FPSO as can be quickly sourced for the first facility (?? 100-120k bopd) and subsequent fixed facilities (100-120k bopd each) that continue to use that FPSO as the export solution. You could do the same with fixed facilities at intervals along the crest of GLA, again using the AM as the export FPSO. Cross link the two FPSOs and you have export redundancy. It looks to me as if it needs 400-600 kopd to develop Rona Ridge at an appropriate scale. Again RT talks about "phases" which indicates that they are thinking in this manner.

2. Implication that Warwick deep will go straight in as a horizontal well, i.e. no vertical pilot to better establish OWC. Maybe they think the ability to clearly distinguish the OWC on logs is not that good given the faulting so why spend the money, and the drilling risk.

3. No mention of needing another farm-in, i.e. base case is no new partners / not pushed for cash flow. Well he would say that wouldn't he, but now it is more credible. It links well to the "phases" comment.

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#213042

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 6th, 2019, 12:28 am

My goodness, what a man Dr Trice is. Calmly sat there with plans for 6 wells in 18 months on a giant (supergiant?) oilfield he personally made happen, yet he is showing no ego and seems mostly interested in getting pressure gauges to depth. If I had his recent achievements on my CV I would have turned up super-fly, pimped out in fur coat, silver cane and gold grills, because he is the goddamn Man.

The Doctor of Geology,
Dr Trice,
Finds oil for fun,
Drills where he likes.
Got a giant boat and a data room,
When he hits faults, the crowd goes Boom!
Gold-digging bitches ain’t his thing,
He be nailing pitches, makin bubble pressures sing.
Look how you win kids: With a pressure gauge
An FPSO and a drilling rampage.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#213047

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 6th, 2019, 1:28 am

He started with a core Shell thought was whack
Now he’s flarin gas from his own fecking stack,
OGA police gettin outta his way
He got export solutions coming any day.

Kids - see who da man-
The geek in the corner with zero sun-tan
So drill hands, down on the floor,
Supermajors, better hold the door
The Man with the Plan is coming through
It’s Dr Robert Trice and he might drill you.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#213059

Postby FabianBjornseth » April 6th, 2019, 8:34 am

JoyofBrex8889 wrote:My goodness, what a man Dr Trice is. Calmly sat there with plans for 6 wells in 18 months on a giant (supergiant?) oilfield he personally made happen, yet he is showing no ego and seems mostly interested in getting pressure gauges to depth. If I had his recent achievements on my CV I would have turned up super-fly, pimped out in fur coat, silver cane and gold grills, because he is the goddamn Man.

The Doctor of Geology,
Dr Trice,
Finds oil for fun,
Drills where he likes.
Got a giant boat and a data room,
When he hits faults, the crowd goes Boom!
Gold-digging bitches ain’t his thing,
He be nailing pitches, makin bubble pressures sing.
Look how you win kids: With a pressure gauge
An FPSO and a drilling rampage.



Robert Trice, is that you?

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#213076

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 6th, 2019, 10:29 am

FabianBjornseth wrote:
JoyofBrex8889 wrote:My goodness, what a man Dr Trice is. Calmly sat there with plans for 6 wells in 18 months on a giant (supergiant?) oilfield he personally made happen, yet he is showing no ego and seems mostly interested in getting pressure gauges to depth. If I had his recent achievements on my CV I would have turned up super-fly, pimped out in fur coat, silver cane and gold grills, because he is the goddamn Man.

The Doctor of Geology,
Dr Trice,
Finds oil for fun,
Drills where he likes.
Got a giant boat and a data room,
When he hits faults, the crowd goes Boom!
Gold-digging bitches ain’t his thing,
He be nailing pitches, makin bubble pressures sing.
Look how you win kids: With a pressure gauge
An FPSO and a drilling rampage.



Robert Trice, is that you?


Nah, just his fan club. The muse of bad rap struck unexpectedly. The dude is as cool as a cucumber though...

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#214924

Postby FabianBjornseth » April 14th, 2019, 6:49 am

https://expronews.com/2019/03/27/maria-still-shut-in/

According to Dagens Næringsliv the reserves in Maria have even been reduced to 60 million barrels of oil from the original 207 million barrels of oil.


This field is not fractured basement, but it illustrates the downside risk in an oilfield with limited dynamic data, as is the case for Lancaster. I expect Wintershall had models that honoured what data they did have, but the solution space is still wide until the chokes are opened. I see too many posters elsewhere assuming that if a good job has been done, the reservoir performance will meet expectations, but unfortunately good work can still be rewarded with a bad outcome.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#214942

Postby FabianBjornseth » April 14th, 2019, 9:45 am

On a more fractured basement related note, a 2 Tcf gas discovery was made in Indonesia by Repsol earlier this year:

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/02/21/giant-gas-discovery-wipes-out-doubts-on-exploration.html

This paper from 2009 on the Bach Ho field in Vietnam details the differences in porosity generation for different fractured basement plays. Many of the basement plays have porosity related to dissolution of minerals - Lundins Rolvsnes discovery is of this character, and as I understand it the same goes for the Indonesian playus. However, the Bach Ho field has no evidence of porosity generation from dissolution or hydrothermal processes. Rather, the fractures are associated purely with brittle fracturing. This concept appears to be broadly similar to Hurricane's understanding of Lancaster:


My reason for bringing this up is that I've heard it claimed that dissolution of the formation is required for a fractured basement reservoir to have sufficient storage. This may not be the case when you have an oil column of hundreds of meters, but it appears that the Rona Ridge is a uncommon subgroup within a rare reservoir type. The interconnected porosity remains a large uncertainty as I can see it until the production data comes in.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#215039

Postby dspp » April 14th, 2019, 8:12 pm

Thank you Fabian. That Bach Ho paper is interesting reading. I fixed your URL link for you. I think we all await long term production data with interest. regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#215586

Postby dspp » April 17th, 2019, 9:37 am

17 April 2019 Hurricane Energy plc 'Warwick Deep' 205/26b-C Well Spud

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, announces that the 205/26b-C well ("Warwick Deep") was spudded at 18:48 hrs on 16 April 2019 using the Transocean Leader rig.

Warwick Deep is the first in a three-well programme on Hurricane's Lincoln and Warwick assets - the Greater Warwick Area ("GWA"). Hurricane has a 50% interest in the GWA following Spirit Energy's farm-in to the P1368 South and P2294 licences in September 2018.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/media/news


If you read that Bach Ho paper that Fabian posted up you can see why they prioritised Warwick Deep to be first in this sequence. Understanding inner & lower fracture system is important both to upside in reserves and to produceability.
- dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#215652

Postby spasmodicus » April 17th, 2019, 1:08 pm

In a 2015 presentation, Hurricane wrote:

Whilst drilling and testing results are encouraging, it is clear that before the industry accepts that fractured basement is a proven play, a period of long term production must be demonstrated. Hurricane is working on achieving this goal with the support of OGAand the implementation of an Early Production System as part of a phased field development.
Currently there is significant UK basement prospectivity, much of it close to infrastructure, but to date this prospectivity remains poorly documented and unquantified.
Basement is a global phenomena and the UK has yet to bring a fractured basement field to production. We are close to achieving that goal and after we have achieved a period of sustained productivity I believe that Lancaster will pave the way to fractured basement becoming a game changer for the UK oil industry.



I have to confess a modest holding of HUR, purchased at about 42p, and in the end I think that it will all come down to “suck it and see”. Imo, the omens are quite good as there are several examples of decent producing fields of this general type.

As stated above, basement OG is a global phenomenon of which Bach Ho (aka White Tiger, aka Beliy Tigr) is just one example and is poorly understood. Beliy Tigr is the Russian name for Bach Ho and it appears in a number of Russian papers as an example to support the theory of abiogenic hydrocarbon generation.

The abiogenic theory, i.e. formation of hydrocarbon pools from primordial mantle-derived emanations of hydrogen or methane, is one of those theories that the oil exploration community at large believes to have been discredited, to the point where it is regarded as heresy by the likes of the AAPG (American Association of PetroleumGeologists). However, there remain pockets of resistance and from time to time papers on the subject are published which contain hard to explain evidence in favour of this hypothesis. Take a look at

http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080131/full/news.2008.542.html

and also consider that other bodies in the solar system, e.g. Saturn’s moon Titan, are positively sloshing with the stuff.

Back in the 70s the AAPG had a vice president (a professor of Geology no less) who was also a Southern Baptist/creationist. I can remember asking him privately how he reconciled this belief with uniformitarianism and fossil evolution evidence and he replied “with some difficulty”. What relevance can this possibly have to Hurricane’s discovery? On the upside, the abiogenic theory also allows for the idea that such oilfields could be continuously replenishing themselves via deep seated faults connecting to their deep sources, giving almost infinite reserves upside. Yeee-haaaah! The accepted and more prosaic explanation is that the oil migrated in through the same fracture system from juxtaposed mature source rocks having a higher hydrodynamic potential.

On the downside it may turn out that fault and fracture connectivity is poor, leading to rapid pressure decline. However, it seems reasonable to suggest that if the oil was able to migrate in and accumulate in the first place, then the connectivity should be good.

There is an apochryphal tale about the hot dry rock geothermal project that was carried out in the 1980s in Cornwall’s Carnmenellis granite pluton. The idea was to tap the residual heat by drilling two wells, which would be connected by enhancing the natural fractures in the rock volume between them. Cold water would be pumped down one well and would emerge at high temperature from the other helped on by high pressure hydraulic fracking, which was monitored by mapping local microseismic activity. It is said that when they proceeded to pump water down one of the wells, instead of emerging from the other well, it flowed out in someone’s back garden a mile or two down the road – evidence indeed that the fracture system was extensive.

The Carnmenellis granite also has oil shows in places
https://pg.lyellcollection.org/content/early/2018/12/19/petgeo2018-053
the above paper throws some light on how this oil might have got there (wot, not abiogenically? That would be heresy!)

Anyway, I’m in to HUR for the time being and await next well results with interest.

S

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#217151

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2019, 8:31 am

Availability of Annual Report and Group Financial Statements & Notice of Annual General Meeting

Hurricane Energy plc, ...announces that electronic copies of its Annual Report and Group Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2018 ("Annual Report"), and the notice of the Company's 2019 Annual General Meeting ("AGM"), have been published today in the Investors section of the Company's website at www.hurricaneenergy.com.

The AGM will be held at 11.00 a.m. on Wednesday, 5 June 2019 at The Science Suite, Royal Society of Chemistry, Burlington House, Piccadilly, London, W1J 0BA. Printed copies of the Annual Report and Notice of AGM will be posted to shareholders today.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/media/news

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#217201

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 25th, 2019, 11:31 am

Ploughing my way through the AR right now. Dr Trice seems happy to own that HUR are currently modelling GWA as a supergiant field!

If that is eventually proved correct then this share is worth a great deal more than the current share price.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#217211

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » April 25th, 2019, 11:55 am

I also note the milestone “sale or partial sale Rona Ridge assets” is marked as “in process”...

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#220523

Postby dspp » May 9th, 2019, 8:05 pm

HUR RNS x 2 https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investo ... atory-news

"Hurricane announces that, pursuant to the block lisng of up to 29,860,834 ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company (the "Ordinary Shares") announced on 29 March 2019 (the "Block Lisng"), the Company has allo,ed a total
of 29,860,834 Ordinary Shares. As such, the Block Listing has been completed. Hurricane's total issued and votingshare capital now comprises 1,990,228,053 Ordinary Shares in aggregate."


Looks like Kerogen have exercised their top up rights (at 20p) and then sold them on (at 45p - 46p), and notified immediately. Also looks like CA have done the same but have yet to notify. Since Kerogen still have (by my calcs) 18% of the fully diluted shares (428m/2434m) seems fair to me.

regards, dspp


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