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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

JoyofBrex8889
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235839

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » July 11th, 2019, 11:16 am

dspp wrote:
dspp wrote:RNS https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurri ... d=14375793

RNS Number : 2150F Hurricane Energy PLC 11 July 2019 Operational Update: Capital Markets Day


The Company and its contractors have been evaluating the drill stem test data, well pressures and fluid samples which indicate that Warwick Deep has penetrated a light oil column. Further analysis is required to be able to understand the background to this result and its implications.

"We are encouraged by the Warwick Deep well, despite the penetrated fracture system not supporting a commercial oil flow rate. Hurricane's assessment of data acquired during drilling and testing indicates that the well encountered a significant oil column on the Warwick structure. Our initial analysis indicates an OWC consistent with pre-drill predictions. Confirmation of our provisional analysis will require data from the remaining 2019 drilling campaign, as well as fluid sample analysis from Warwick Deep. Importantly, we have evidence that suggests to Hurricane that the result at Warwick Deep does not have negative read-across to Lancaster or Lincoln.."


......... mmmmmmmm

If this is to be taken at face value, then the WD conclusions are:

1. Previously they have described Lancaster oil as being (my notes) "Lancaster: Light oil with fairly low GOR approx. 405 scf/bbl. 38 API no H2S or CO2 Little biodegradation" which we now know (per EPS) is 360 scf/bbl. My guess is they trying to indicate that they still think this is pretty much the same oil, but they are waiting on a full analysis;
2. The OWC remains believed to be at the deeper level;
3. The patch of rock they drilled into just had insufficient fracture connectivity;

I must admit I am somewhat sceptical on items 2 & 3 and would like to see a tad more evidence.

regards, dspp


On item 1 I can easily understand and believe it is the same or similar oil across the Rona Ridge, if it came from the same source roack and was subject to the same geological processes ridgewide.

I have no clue on Item 2.

On Item 3, given how very localized the geology is in FB It is quite possible they got unlucky with where the drillbit actually ended up. Like those guys who trip and impale themselves on a javelin at school sportsday, but somehow miss everything vital and survive.

The nice thing is, with two more 2019 drills planned, we get two more bites at the cherry, two more chances for data (albeit rather shallower).

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235842

Postby StepOne » July 11th, 2019, 11:20 am

SentimentRules wrote:The only thing wrong with my trade given i was up 25% was greed.


The other thing you got wrong was trading a news driven stock like Hurricane. Why would you leave your trade open when you knew the CMD was today?

StepOne

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235848

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 11:27 am

Simple answer is greed .

I thought ok.. ..

If price goes up? It's only retail. Im not seeing fund interest prior. I can compound the short.

Its worked out that way but yes, never thought it would give me such small margin for error to breakeven after compounding short.

So if it doesn't drop? Got it wrong really. Money was there somewhere i never spotted, prior to today.

Agree with AIM stocks, got to take your net 20%. If i was long yesterday id be out already. Job done in a few hours.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235851

Postby dspp » July 11th, 2019, 11:35 am

SentimentRules wrote:Simple answer is greed .

I thought ok.. ..

If price goes up? It's only retail. Im not seeing fund interest prior. I can compound the short. .


There are institutional investors, and HNWs with pockets bigger than some instis, and etc, all over HUR. Short & long. And there have been for a few years.

- dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235853

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 11:40 am

It's their position prior to data thats the important part. Every stock globally has institutional or fund investors. Carillion even had at administration i think Even the likes of Vodafone still has ones still holding from 230p.

Does not mean they are bullish. Or have not loaned it out to shorters. Or covered on the options

Holdings tell you little. It's coming to a data event that tells you much. .

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235856

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 11:45 am

So my take into this data? Any rise is retail. No fund interest bullish on the balance. They were not prepping for it.

But it's only analysis. We all get some wrong. If im taken oyt breakeven, I'm wrong. No excuses. No saying.... It's ok... The long-term will sort it short. Who knows where the world is in three months

So i cut no bones about it. Breakeven is me wrong. Next deal lol

When I'm wrong, it's normally at breakeven time. That's not a bad wrong. In fact , it's how i manage wrong ones that make all the difference to my yearly income.

Anyway see how she goes. If it doesn't drop, hope it hits 100p for you. Personally i wont buy. To me the buyer value was the last few days. Now its higher risk buy

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235868

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » July 11th, 2019, 12:14 pm

Thinking a lot more on this and updating a few spreadsheets modelling the situation:

The good news from the FPSO limits the range of potential downsides from here.

One of the big unknowns was how the wells would perform over a prolonged period, and the indications so far are: rather better than expected.

If Lancaster didnt perform then the downside was unpleasant to contemplate. I am not complacent but feel much happier that the least favourable downside scenarios are (on the evidence so far), much less likely.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235877

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » July 11th, 2019, 12:44 pm

Image

This image from Amnesic on twitter made me smile.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235895

Postby PeterGray » July 11th, 2019, 1:44 pm

If this is to be taken at face value, then the WD conclusions are:

1. Previously they have described Lancaster oil as being (my notes) "Lancaster: Light oil with fairly low GOR approx. 405 scf/bbl. 38 API no H2S or CO2 Little biodegradation" which we now know (per EPS) is 360 scf/bbl. My guess is they trying to indicate that they still think this is pretty much the same oil, but they are waiting on a full analysis;
2. The OWC remains believed to be at the deeper level;
3. The patch of rock they drilled into just had insufficient fracture connectivity;

I must admit I am somewhat sceptical on items 2 & 3 and would like to see a tad more evidence.


I'd certainly agree more evidence is needed, and I'm sure HUR would agree! However, I don't find the conclusions unlikely, even if as yet not totally proven. I had pretty much assumed 2 from the initial well result RNS - which stated O&G were recovered from the deep horizontal, though clearly not at commercial rates.

For me, and I suspect, HUR, the big question is 3. Clearly they drilled into a patch with low connectivity - I doubt anyone would argue that. But what we do not know, and will not for some time, is just how unlucky they were doing so? It was a horizontal, so should have had good chances of hitting fractures, so low connectivity may be a wider issue at Warwick at least - or then again, perhaps they are just too low, and connectivity will be better higher up?

Overall, I'm happy with the RNS today, and the SP response. This is certainly not a share I'd want to be short in just at the moment!

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235900

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 1:57 pm

Getting very close to my stop out now. Just holding on by fingernails.

I'm still not seeing smart money here. The only question is am I missing something? Or is it indeed overreaction by dumb Money? (That's not derogitory- just common market terminology 're smart dumb money in a price move)

I have to accept stop out if comes however. Never let green go red and all that.

Stopped or not.. .I want to say well done to recent buyers. 20% hit in no time. Excellent.


Now you have the same dilemma I had. ..

Book it? Or risk it on a day of interesting volume reads? An easy answer in the ftse 350. However AIM we all get this question daily.

2.5 hours to go...dont write off the short just yet. What they do towards close is the truth of the day

Truth of the day meaning. Are they happy with 20% and dump on the 'aftermove buyers' quietly'?

Or do they see more than 20%. Always interesting in a one day move. Answer coming I guess lol

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235904

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » July 11th, 2019, 2:08 pm

Hi SR:

"The only question is am I missing something?"

Yes.

There is likely to be a well-spud RNS in a day or two that will hopefully keep the company in the limelight a bit longer, and give their current positive story longer airtime. I would think it might be sensible to close out the short before that happened, given current momentum.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235905

Postby dspp » July 11th, 2019, 2:10 pm

JoyofBrex8889 wrote:Hi SR:

"The only question is am I missing something?"

Yes.

There is likely to be a well-spud RNS in a day or two that will hopefully keep the company in the limelight a bit longer, and give their current positive story longer airtime. I would think it might be sensible to close out the short before that happened, given current momentum.


And there are many more news events queued up behind that one :)

- dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235906

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 2:20 pm

JoyofBrex8889 wrote:Hi SR:

"The only question is am I missing something?"

Yes.

There is likely to be a well-spud RNS in a day or two that will hopefully keep the company in the limelight a bit longer, and give their current positive story longer airtime. I would think it might be sensible to close out the short before that happened, given current momentum.


Thank you. Short is all set for breakeven. Hitting that, I know im wrong. And agree thereafter.

What i meant by missing something is, why did i not see funds prepping before today? They usually do. And i usually don't miss it when they do. So if its smart Money in today's move, I've got to put hands up and say well done other side of market.

When HUR was 64p one day in June , wti was 53.08 pb

Now with rns HUR around 53p. Wti 60.6

There is a divergence in the company specific relative to the broader market. A weakness that exists , more than just constituent sentiment driven in such divergence from previous rns.

I was thinking this mass divergence oree today and the funds seemingly not looking to converge it, stops me buying high of an up move. Albeit I also can't hold the short into the red in case sentiment favours the bull after today's play.

Obviously many more caveats but if it was a ftse 350 stock.. id be able ro hold the short a bit longer than today.

"Many more news events*

Exactly. Are they going to use this event to dump on the higher price? Trying to figure it out now.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235910

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 2:31 pm

Ok. Here is my thoughts from a shorter perspective. 51.98 is the average medium term holding in terms of volume/price.

Staying above this today would suggest get the hell out of short haha.

But if she gets to close below it, I think it's bailing rather than some profit taking.

So that's the key prtice for me today to assess looking forward on the money terms. Decisions by the market being determined above/below said price.

The day traders are in to short. But that's not enough to determine an after close hold. So 51.98 <> calls the ball.

Some of you may think that's irrelevant long term. But it's not. I've held buys and shorts months/years based on decisions like today. Market has to make a choice for the long term, one day lol

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#235949

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 5:06 pm

That's me stopped out guys . Total return of zero on this one.

I still think im out too early. But cant risk it at close of day on AIM.

If it opens gapped up above today's high in the morning il start short again. You can asaume im short the open price. My bias is still there.

I cant buy today based on my analysis.

So if I'm not in it tomorrow morning short .May it hit 200p for you all. And well done today.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#236033

Postby dspp » July 11th, 2019, 9:43 pm


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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#236104

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 9:48 am

Short order placed 53.90. There is no short entry feasible above today's open. All bulls unless back to open price . But at that strike I would confidently hold it again for another go at sub 30 (only if happens today)

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#236120

Postby dspp » July 12th, 2019, 10:36 am

RNS Number : 3825F Hurricane Energy PLC 12 July 2019 'Lincoln Crestal' 205/26b-B Well Spud

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, announces that the 205/26b-B well ("Lincoln Crestal") was spudded on 12 July 2019 using the Transocean Leader rig. Lincoln Crestal is the second in a three-well programme on Hurricane's Lincoln and Warwick assets

https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurri ... d=14377302

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#236183

Postby StepOne » July 12th, 2019, 1:30 pm

SentimentRules wrote:Short order placed 53.90. There is no short entry feasible above today's open. All bulls unless back to open price . But at that strike I would confidently hold it again for another go at sub 30 (only if happens today)


What is the plan for closing this short?

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#236184

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 1:47 pm

Well the yearly average open high low close (ohlc) is based at bang on 59.88p. The last week of May and first week of June, truly triggered all buy executions above that.

So il be happy with a stop placement of 60.5 if 53.90 strikes today.

The recent lows are actually a tech buy. Not fundamental. Orders triggered at the 50 monthly average price. One reason why im not too concerned about 40.75 being fundamental investors.

I adjust my purchase sizes or short values to accommodate fixed risk. I don't let risk dictate the values lol. So this stock is worth no more to me than a ftse 100 trade. Maybe get there a bit faster. That's about it.

.


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