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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#257785

Postby dspp » October 14th, 2019, 2:21 pm

TANKER UPLIFTS - updated listing, note HUR's oil sales are as of date of lift, not date of offload at a refinery. It is 38 API (*1).

#0, 11 May 2019, real first oil into AM FPSO
#00, 4 June 2019 (first oil per RNS, i.e. simultaneous flow from both wells for 72-hours iaw contractual definition)
#1, approx 18 June 2019, 47,389 tons =356,429 bbls @ approx 39 days open-up to lift, so approx 9k bopd (AMUNDSEN SPIRIT), cum = 356,429 bbls
#2, approx 21 July 2019, 56,000 tons = 455,000 bbls @ approx 32 days lift-to-lift, so approx 14k bopd (PETRO ATLANTIC), cum = 811,429 bbls
#3, approx 17 Aug 2019, 60,595 tons = 456,280 bbls @ approx 28 days lift-to-lift, so approx 16k bopd (*2) (AMUNDSEN SPIRIT), cum = 1,267,709 bbls
#4, approx 16 Sep 2019, 61,753 tons = 465,000 bbls @ approx 31 days lift-to-lift, so approx 15k bopd (*3) (NAVION OCEANIA), cum = 1,732,709 bbls
#5, approx 13 Oct, 2019, 59,000 tons = 497,375 bbls @ approx 27 days lift-to-lift, so approx 18k bopd (*4) ((NAVION OCEANIA), cum = 2,230,084 bbls

*1 : for 38 API I get 56,000mt = 421,894 bbls, i.e. 7.53 bbls/mt, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity however there are a variety of different conversions being used so there is a discrepancy somewhere.

*2: AIS draft increase from 9.2m unloaded to 11m loaded. Actual draft on Rotterdam departure after unload was fwd 7.20 meters and aft 9.20 (which is the AIS unloaded max draft state), though we do not know how much ballast compensation is in play. Actual load of 60.5kt corresponds to avge draft per londoner7 tanker calcs. However if trim constant then max unloaded to max loaded is a good indication. IF trim constant.

*3 : no good data on lifted volume available so I have assumed 15kbopd x 31d = 465,000 bbls

*4 : using Amaja's report of 58-60,000 tons with some empty tanks on this occasion.

(as always thanks to Amaja, divecentre, laserdisc, planetgong, londoner7, bountyhunter, etc)

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#257919

Postby JoyofBricks8 » October 15th, 2019, 12:18 am

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/110d0aa5f ... f-98981107

I had not previously seen this recent research note from Hannam: Their estimate gives risked value of 135p/share with 10% discount rate and $70/b assumptions. Thats a little higher than my back-of-a-fag packet guess using those inputs but is certainly in the same ball park.

The table p2 marked "Total risked NAV sensitivity to oil price and discount rate" is one to keep handy at this time with Saudi and Iran blowing each others cargos up. I am amazed at how very steady the oil price has been of late in spite of severe warlike shenanigans!

I would be interested if any ex-oilco accountant types might be able to hint exactly what discount rates a major oilco is likely to use internally to assess potential M&A valuation?

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#257968

Postby dspp » October 15th, 2019, 9:28 am

JoyofBricks8 wrote:https://gallery.mailchimp.com/110d0aa5f5d9bf9478796664e/files/420bc2bd-8289-4cd3-99f4-becb4e15587c/Hurricane_Energy_Note_2019.09.20_003_002_.pdf?utm_source=H%26P+Master+Contact+List+%28Sements+and+Tags%29&utm_campaign=69b4eed3bf-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_07_02_10_23_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dd4f91613c-69b4eed3bf-98981107


I would be interested if any ex-oilco accountant types might be able to hint exactly what discount rates a major oilco is likely to use internally to assess potential M&A valuation?


You don't let the accountants near that sort of stuff. They are there to count the outcome, not to be involved.

Most major oilco's will use a screening grid. It will have one axis of oil price (say $30, $50, $70) and another of discount rate (say 12%, 17%, 25%). They will also evaluate a lo/med/hi reserves case for the individual reservoirs. For each they will have a simple NPV model based on a DCF and that in turn will be tied to a particular development option.

They will typically look to exclude all projects (or acquisitions) that don't withstand the low corner ($30 x 25% in my example) because they seek to invest in things that will be - at worst - breakeven but never loss making. They will typically do efficient capital allocation (between a hundred or more possible projects) on the mid/mid central case ($50 x 17% in my example) but may get more sophisticated. In the case of Rona Ridge they will definitely get a lot more sophisticated.

Exactly what the values in the axis boxes are typically today I am unsure, and in any case they vary from oilco to oilco and year to year and blend to blend, but I doubt I am far off.

regards, dspp

[edit - it would appear that Shell is using a lower screen in the $20-$30 level https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shel ... SKBN1WT2JL ]

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#258165

Postby Carcosa » October 16th, 2019, 7:05 am

Crystal Amber's latest missive on Hurricane:

Since achieving first oil on 4 June 2019, the company has been producing from its two Lancaster wells. The reservoir has performed at the higher end of expectations. Initiatives are under way to increase production over the next two years. For example, the reactivation of the gas compression system will enable gas export and increase the production vessel's throughput.

Over the period, Hurricane drilled and tested two new wells at its Great Warwick Area, funded by Spirit Energy as part of their farm out deal. The
Warwick Deep found hydrocarbons in the target fractured rock, but oil did not flow at commercial rates. The Lincoln Crestal produced oil at commercial rates and will be tied back in 2021 to the Lancaster Early Production System (EPS). This will allow production appraisal and generate additional cash flows at little additional capital expenditure. One final exploration well is currently underway.

The excellent results from the EPS have materially de-risked the company. Whilst the Fund is disappointed that Hurricane's shares fell by 18.9% over the
period, we are encouraged by management's focus on growing cash flows. The operational initiatives in progress and the addition of the Lincoln Crestal
well to the EPS could see production grow from 2020's guidance of 17k barrels of oil per day to 30k in 2021. Assuming an oil price of US$60 per barrel, the base case guidance for operating cash flow could grow from $200m in 2020 to $300m in 2021. In our view, those cash flows will underpin the optionality that Hurricane will have to plan its future development.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#258667

Postby dspp » October 18th, 2019, 9:01 am

**** corrected to all use 7.53 bbl/mt consistently, see note *5 ***

AM TANKER UPLIFTS - updated listing, note HUR's oil sales are as of date of lift, not date of offload at a refinery. It is 38 API (*1).

#0, 11 May 2019, real first oil into AM FPSO
#00, 4 June 2019 (first oil per RNS, i.e. simultaneous flow from both wells for 72-hours iaw contractual definition)
#1, approx 18 June 2019, 47,389 tons =356,429 bbls @ approx 39 days open-up to lift, so approx 9k bopd (AMUNDSEN SPIRIT), cum = 356,429 bbls
#2, approx 21 July 2019, 56,000 tons = 421,680 bbls @ approx 32 days lift-to-lift, so approx 13k bopd (*5) (PETRO ATLANTIC), cum = 778,109 bbls
#3, approx 17 Aug 2019, 60,595 tons = 456,280 bbls @ approx 28 days lift-to-lift, so approx 16k bopd (*2) (AMUNDSEN SPIRIT), cum = 1,234,389 bbls
#4, approx 16 Sep 2019, 61,753 tons = 465,000 bbls @ approx 31 days lift-to-lift, so approx 15k bopd (*3)( (NAVION OCEANIA), cum = 1,699,389 bbls
#5, approx 13 Oct, 2019, 59,000 tons = 444,270 bbls @ approx 27 days lift-to-lift, so approx 16.5k bopd (*4) ((NAVION OCEANIA), cum = 2,143,659 bbls

*1 : for 38 API I get 56,000mt = 421,894 bbls, i.e. 7.53 bbls/mt, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity however there are a variety of different conversions being used so there is a discrepancy somewhere.

*2: AIS draft increase from 9.2m unloaded to 11m loaded. Actual draft on Rotterdam departure after unload was fwd 7.20 meters and aft 9.20 (which is the AIS unloaded max draft state), though we do not know how much ballast compensation is in play. Actual load of 60.5kt corresponds to avge draft per londoner7 tanker calcs. However if trim constant then max unloaded to max loaded is a good indication. IF trim constant.

*3 : no good data on lifted volume available so I have assumed 15kbopd x 31d = 465,000 bbls

*4 : using Amaja's report of 58-60,000 tons with some empty tanks on this occasion.

*5 : the original data on this #2 lift yields a conversion factor of 8.124 bbls/mt because various information sources gave both a mt number and a bbl number (initially 56,000 tons = 455,000 bbls), which I noted as a problem (*1). However subsequently some of my other numbers used this erroneous conversion. I have (17/18-10-2019) been alerted to this by divecentre and recalculated them all to be consistent using the 7.53 factor. The recalculation affects #2, and thence #5 in earlier posts. Mea culpa.

(as always thanks to Amaja, divecentre, laserdisc, planetgong, londoner7, bountyhunter, etc)

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#260793

Postby Carcosa » October 29th, 2019, 12:03 pm

A very recently produced edited Transcript of Hurricane Energy PLC earnings conference call or presentation Thursday, March 28, 2019.

Amongst other things some comments regarding monetisation, M&A activity, other companies not drilling as they await HUR core data and an indication (also confirmed in their last video presentation) that they do not expect any corporate approaches until 2021/22

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#263030

Postby dspp » November 8th, 2019, 3:11 pm

RNS Number : 8032S
Hurricane Energy PLC
08 November 2019

Response to Media Speculation

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, provides an update in relation to the 204/30b-4 ("Warwick West") well.
The Company notes the media speculation regarding the Warwick West well. The well is due to commence testing soon. The timing of testing is weather dependent. As such it is far too early to make any conclusions as to the success of the Warwick West well.
An update will be provided once testing commences and on the completion of well testing.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#263137

Postby JoyofBricks8 » November 9th, 2019, 12:02 am

Sounds like they have at least something vaguely oily to show for their efforts to me. Let’s hope they crack on with the DST successfully.

The current share price is a head scratcher. I cannot fathom it. As I see it the market is ascribing virtually no value to the GWA.

For my blood pressure I am going to try to put these in the bottom drawer and not look again until 2023.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#264672

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 16th, 2019, 4:56 am

All quiet at HUR since the last rumour then. No flares reported yet. And not much being said about the 6th cargo recently dispatched from the FPSO. The frustrating times continue at Hurricane Energy. I am nervous about a low ball bid given the recent transactions in the industry, not least the outcome at Amerisur where I'd say private investors are yet again being robbed. I'd really like to see HUR move to the main market next year to open the business up to a much wider pool of investors. I see nothing suggesting that's about to happen though.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#264675

Postby JoyofBricks8 » November 16th, 2019, 7:47 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:All quiet at HUR since the last rumour then. No flares reported yet. And not much being said about the 6th cargo recently dispatched from the FPSO. The frustrating times continue at Hurricane Energy. I am nervous about a low ball bid given the recent transactions in the industry, not least the outcome at Amerisur where I'd say private investors are yet again being robbed. I'd really like to see HUR move to the main market next year to open the business up to a much wider pool of investors. I see nothing suggesting that's about to happen though.


I was rather hoping to see a flare this weekend: no matter: it will happen when it happens.

On the plus side we have some exceptionally good wells in production, and the chance of more if we are patient.

The company is worth more than its current share price, I am convinced. The risk is we get bored waiting for the value to materialise, or we get bought by a raider using our own mounting cashpile to help buy us out.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#264678

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 16th, 2019, 8:14 am

JoyofBricks8 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:All quiet at HUR since the last rumour then. No flares reported yet. And not much being said about the 6th cargo recently dispatched from the FPSO. The frustrating times continue at Hurricane Energy. I am nervous about a low ball bid given the recent transactions in the industry, not least the outcome at Amerisur where I'd say private investors are yet again being robbed. I'd really like to see HUR move to the main market next year to open the business up to a much wider pool of investors. I see nothing suggesting that's about to happen though.


I was rather hoping to see a flare this weekend: no matter: it will happen when it happens.

On the plus side we have some exceptionally good wells in production, and the chance of more if we are patient.

The company is worth more than its current share price, I am convinced. The risk is we get bored waiting for the value to materialise, or we get bought by a raider using our own mounting cashpile to help buy us out.

Exactly. Given what assets are changing hands for presently in O&G, a fat bank account to pay back the short term finance required to buy it and the assets is troublesome. A cheeky 100p low ball bid would see us out of HUR, I'm convinced.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#264688

Postby dspp » November 16th, 2019, 9:38 am

**** updated to note #6 lift, draught measurements suggest it may be a bit light, no firmer volumetrics yet but I don't want to forget anything, I will update if better info arises ***

AM TANKER UPLIFTS - updated listing, note HUR's oil sales are as of date of lift, not date of offload at a refinery. It is 38 API (*1).

#0, 11 May 2019, real first oil into AM FPSO
#00, 4 June 2019 (first oil per RNS, i.e. simultaneous flow from both wells for 72-hours iaw contractual definition)
#1, approx 18 June 2019, 47,389 tons =356,429 bbls @ approx 39 days open-up to lift, so approx 9k bopd (AMUNDSEN SPIRIT), cum = 356,429 bbls
#2, approx 21 July 2019, 56,000 tons = 421,680 bbls @ approx 32 days lift-to-lift, so approx 13k bopd (*5) (PETRO ATLANTIC), cum = 778,109 bbls
#3, approx 17 Aug 2019, 60,595 tons = 456,280 bbls @ approx 28 days lift-to-lift, so approx 16k bopd (*2) (AMUNDSEN SPIRIT), cum = 1,234,389 bbls
#4, approx 16 Sep 2019, 61,753 tons = 465,000 bbls @ approx 31 days lift-to-lift, so approx 15k bopd (*3)( (NAVION OCEANIA), cum = 1,699,389 bbls
#5, approx 13 Oct, 2019, 59,000 tons = 444,270 bbls @ approx 27 days lift-to-lift, so approx 16.5k bopd (*4) (NAVION OCEANIA), cum = 2,143,659 bbls
#6, approx 13 Nov 2019, ..............?? 350k bbls................... @ approx 31 days lift-to-lift, ...??? 11k bopd. from draught................... (NAVION OCEANIA), ........... no firm volume indication at this stage

*1 : for 38 API I get 56,000mt = 421,894 bbls, i.e. 7.53 bbls/mt, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity however there are a variety of different conversions being used so there is a discrepancy somewhere.

*2: AIS draft increase from 9.2m unloaded to 11m loaded. Actual draft on Rotterdam departure after unload was fwd 7.20 meters and aft 9.20 (which is the AIS unloaded max draft state), though we do not know how much ballast compensation is in play. Actual load of 60.5kt corresponds to avge draft per londoner7 tanker calcs. However if trim constant then max unloaded to max loaded is a good indication. IF trim constant.

*3 : no good data on lifted volume available so I have assumed 15kbopd x 31d = 465,000 bbls

*4 : using Amaja's report of 58-60,000 tons with some empty tanks on this occasion.

*5 : the original data on this #2 lift yields a conversion factor of 8.124 bbls/mt because various information sources gave both a mt number and a bbl number (initially 56,000 tons = 455,000 bbls), which I noted as a problem (*1). However subsequently some of my other numbers used this erroneous conversion. I have (17/18-10-2019) been alerted to this by divecentre and recalculated them all to be consistent using the 7.53 factor. The recalculation affects #2, and thence #5 in earlier posts. Mea culpa.

(as always thanks to Amaja, divecentre, laserdisc, planetgong, londoner7, bountyhunter, etc)

regards, dspp

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#264806

Postby PeterGray » November 16th, 2019, 6:18 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I'd really like to see HUR move to the main market next year to open the business up to a much wider pool of investors. I see nothing suggesting that's about to happen though.


I totally agree. However, while there's nothing suggesting it's about to happen soon, my interpretation of their statements is that's it's likely to happen, or at least be well underway, sometime next year.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265282

Postby Proselenes » November 19th, 2019, 7:07 am

Testing starts today, RNS out.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265648

Postby Proselenes » November 20th, 2019, 7:14 am

Flare from testing........

Image

.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265652

Postby Proselenes » November 20th, 2019, 7:28 am

Daytime flare photo.

Image

.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265658

Postby JoyofBricks8 » November 20th, 2019, 7:43 am

That’s looking very, very promising indeed. Certainly visually it is comparable to LIncoln well. :D

At the start of the years drilling campaign I would have gladly taken 2 out of 3 successful holes and the considerable outperformance from the production system thus far is the cherry on the top. The management promised a transformative year: the share price doesn’t reflect it yet but my goodness they have hit the ball out of the park this year- we are in a great position!

Hurricane is building up a super track record of finding scads of sweet oil.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265666

Postby OLTB » November 20th, 2019, 8:10 am

Proselenes wrote:Flare from testing........

Image

.


Hi Proselenes

I’m not in the oil industry but have about 1% of my SIPP in HUR. I love this thread as I learn so much from industry people.

What does a flare indicate? I understand that HUR were starting drill stem testing but don’t know if this flare is a good or bad thing (I would guess that it’s good news as there’s something burnable!)

Cheers, OLTB.

Cheers, OLTB.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265667

Postby JoyofBricks8 » November 20th, 2019, 8:14 am

What does a positive decision to FFD on GWA do to the share price?

Hannam had the GWA FFD being worth 25p per share risked back in September. Surely we are now a step closer to that becoming a reality.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#265698

Postby PeterGray » November 20th, 2019, 9:50 am

OLTB wrote:What does a flare indicate? I understand that HUR were starting drill stem testing but don’t know if this flare is a good or bad thing (I would guess that it’s good news as there’s something burnable!)

Cheers, OLTB.


It indicates they have flowed HCs to the surface. At this stage it doesn't show much more than that. Clearly positive, but until the full DST results are published we won't know if it's commercial.


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