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Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#451225

Postby Proselenes » October 19th, 2021, 10:40 am

Anyone wanting to set up a Fire Alert in Trinidad the link is below :

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/alerts/

You can select to choose a custom area, zoom into Trinidad and then make a box around Royston.....so the moment any Fire or of course flare is detected you will get an email alert.

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Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#451859

Postby Proselenes » October 21st, 2021, 1:57 am

Paul must be planning to do some presentations after the Q3 results are released in November, and so a new presentation has been put out.

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/w ... tation.pdf

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Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#452414

Postby Proselenes » October 23rd, 2021, 1:39 am

Cascadura - Production online April/May 2022

Plan still in place, this from the Ministers speech a few days ago. Listen from 23 minutes in, he says about Touchstone becoming the largest onshore gas producer within a few months.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJhxODCd-FQ


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#452591

Postby Proselenes » October 24th, 2021, 1:55 am

As its a Sunday and I have some free time I thought well, why not lets get more into this "Cretaceous" below Royston, or indeed, below Ortoire.

If you care to chat to TXP's geos, they will tell you they are massively excited as the Cretaceous below Royston appears to be very very thick and also unbroken. Guyana "Liza" sized potential, but onshore Trinidad???????

Why are some people who are looking past the trees (Cascadura, Royston, Coho, Steelhead, Gaubine, Chinook etc..) to see the big fat Wood excited about something that is currently not drilled yet.

Why is a highly successful investment guru holding near 3% of TXP and talking about TXP and Ortoire being the next Guyana potentially ? Why is XM so very very excited about the Cretaceous below Ortoire.

Well, there is a trend, which with latest drilling results is proven, running down from Trinidad to Guyana to Suriname........potential big fat full of oil Cretaceous reservoirs.

Just like all the dry holes put into Guyana and Suriname and in the past Trinidad - its taken a long time to work out the keys to the geology and where to drill to find these Cretaceous reservoirs. The North Sea had dusters galore before they found oil.

Its been a long held theory that they exist in Trinidad, just like they have been found offshore Guyana and offshore Suriname and could be onshore Trinidad.

But as is said - anything found onshore is worth 5 times the same if offshore due to the costs of offshore. So a billion onshore recoverable barrels has the value of five billion offshore recoverable barrels in very simple terms.

Here is a research paper, written in 2014, on the potential for these massive oil bearing Cretaceous reservoirs being in Trinidad.

And you will note, in the summary findings - where the writer thinks they are - which happens to be Ortoire license area. The overlapping of the red and green areas.


https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz ... s.pdf.html


And now, here we are, seven years later, with the very latest seismic showing that the Krakken, despite all best efforts to rule it out and say "its not the mythical multi billion barrel Cretaceous reservoirs that everyone has looked for for decades onshore".............now appears to be even stronger than ever based on the latest seismic and now also the Royston drilling results being hydrocarbon bearing.

So yes, I am looking far ahead. Looking to what might be, and that might be worth tens or hundreds of todays share price.

In the meantime, its all about delivering a successful production and exploration company, and with Coho and Cascadura on line soon, with lots of development and appraisal to be done on Cascadura, Coho, Chinook and Royston......and with lots of exploration to come with Steelhead and Guabine among 20 others, as well as South West legacy drilling and the deep Herrera there....... and that alone should see the share price north of 5 pounds before the end of 2022.

BUT.......there is something very much bigger potentially, which could be utterly transformational for the company and the share price. That is the onshore Ortoire license area Cretaceous.

And thats why I have a lot of TXP and am very happy holding and waiting to see what 2022 and 2023 brings for us shareholders. No trading, no profit taking, just keep on accumulating.

Roll on the Krakken drill in 2022, which will happen 8 years after that research paper was written - finally we may see what the enormous Ortoire Cretaceous holds......

And if anyone thinks this has not been planned.........why do you think a new rig capable of drilling into the Cretaceous is now in Trinidad and under contract to TXP for three years at least. Its all quietly ticking along without highlighting it too much - as its so big - most people would think its ludicrous to talk about it......they will scoff at it and laugh.........but they may all end up with egg on their faces if Krakken delivers.........and I want to be holding the golden tickets, lots of them, when the drill happens.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#454034

Postby Proselenes » October 29th, 2021, 12:34 am

Coho pipeline starts. Coho will be online by year end.

( Cascadura will be online by Q2 2022 also, for all the Moaning Minnies out there :) )

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#454447

Postby Proselenes » October 30th, 2021, 11:52 pm

30th Oct satellite image suggests some extra equipment now on site at Royston. Might mean that testing may commence this coming week, or soon after.

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browse ... TRUE_COLOR

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Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#455237

Postby Proselenes » November 3rd, 2021, 12:29 am

October 2021 figures added.

A small increase (62K) in the actual short level (percentage down as more stock on CREST). Price being suppressed is ongoing.

TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings - average)

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49%
Aug 2021____8.45%
Sep 2021____8.39%
Oct 2021.....8.37% (Loaned 8.870 million up from 8.808 million in September)

Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#456436

Postby Proselenes » November 8th, 2021, 7:20 am

Fantastic news for TXP.

Bottom section now confirmed flowing light oil. Big upside. Two main gas targets now to be tested. This is significant upside for TXP as they were still in pay at TD and so this oil section goes deeper and is thicker. Also good for de risking the deeper Krakken target.

Its all upside as this was not even a target pre-drill, only the two sections testing next for gas were the targets.



https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... aimer=true

"Paul Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We are excited to discover a promising new light oil pool in the deepest test section of the Royston well, adding further potential to the future development opportunity in the Royston area, as light oil can be easily and economically developed alongside any gas development. The initial test confirms the large hydrocarbon column in the well, and we interpret the following two primary testing targets to be liquids rich natural gas. These results exceed pre-test expectations, as a flowing light oil opportunity with significant development potential from the bottom 100 feet of the wellbore is a major addition to the Royston area opportunity. We have the potential to further evaluate the intermediate Herrera in future drilling programs by penetrating the intermediate sheet when we drill and assess the underlying Cretaceous prospect. These results further amplify our onshore opportunities in Trinidad.""

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#456466

Postby Proselenes » November 8th, 2021, 10:00 am

100 millions barrels, or more....like more.........like more more more.

More news as well after tomorrows meetings with TXP management.

You can see the Finncap note 1st page on the picture link below. Open the link to read it.

https://i.ibb.co/kgnLVwW/TXP-Finncap-Nov-21.jpg

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#456494

Postby Proselenes » November 8th, 2021, 11:33 am


Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#456698

Postby Proselenes » November 9th, 2021, 2:50 am

A snippet from Shore Cap.

Shore Cap maintain that TXP are fully funded to Cascadura coming on line and dont need any extra money.

I dont agree with his 25,000 boepd year end 2023. I forecast 30,000 to 50,000 boepd year end 2023.

If Krakken-1 is duster in the Cretaceous next year I expect share price around 500p Dec 2022. If Krakken-1 strikes oil in the Cretaceous then I expect 1000p a share Dec 2022. The game is well and truly on now.

Krakken-1 is now a 2 in 1 well, so it can be designed as an oil production well into the Intermediate sheet to appraise this oil discovery, and also designed as a poke into the Cretaceous below. So the development well cost for Royston oil is paid for by the planned exploration costs of Krakken-1. Lovely.

And a valid point, the Royston area is vast, and currently they have only poked the top of the Intermediate sheet. There might be 100 million OIP, or 200 million OIP or indeed 500+ million barrels OIP. We will not know until the appraisal happens and the Krakken-1 well goes all the way through the Intermediate sheet on its way down to the Cretaceous.



https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/s ... -17-higher

.......‘MATERIAL UPSIDE SURPRISE’

Shore Capital analyst Craig Howie commented: ‘The discovery reported today has been made in a separate and previously unidentified new pool and therefore, in our opinion, provides a material upside surprise beyond the previously-announced discovery of liquids-rich natural gas in Royston.’

Howie added: ‘Ahead of the full set of Royston test results, we continue to believe that an FY22 exit production rate of 15,000 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day) is readily achievable and happily maintain our 7,000 boepd average daily production forecast for next year.

‘We continue to believe that 25,000 boepd appears perfectly achievable by the end of FY23. We also remain confident that Touchstone’s liquidity is ample and sufficient to see the company all the way through to commercial production from Cascadura – which we fully expect to provide substantial liquids-rich gas production and operating cash flow.’...........


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#457456

Postby Proselenes » November 11th, 2021, 11:44 pm

Q3 MDA has been released (as well as the Q3 results). Well worth reading the MDA for full details.

https://touchstoneexploration.com/wp-co ... -FINAL.pdf



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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#457754

Postby Proselenes » November 13th, 2021, 2:51 am

Oil migration in Trinidad is West to East.

So in very simple terms, oil at Royston proves oil has not only migrated this far East (good for Krakken) but also its migrated through Chinook area, and so any updip areas of Chinook above the OWC are full of oil (and gas if a gas cap).

This is really what DYOR is all about. Looking at depth into things, what they potentially mean and seeing potential upsides before the rest of the market catches on.

Royston oil is in the Herrera 7bc. Chinook water (with some oil) was in the Herrera 7bc.

Royston oil had about 3% water cut, so at that depth its near the OWC, but still some way away from it.

Chinook water had some oil in it, so its some way below the OWC.

Simple 2+2=4 therefore that Chinook, having areas 1000 feet uppdip, if you allow for an OWC say 300 feet higher in the 7bc than where Chinook-1 drilled, means at the top of that 1000 feet vertically updip location you might have around 700 feet of oil pay.

Same for Royston, if at 10,700 feet they have slght water traces they are quite close to the OWC, but then if a lot of the 7bc is 10,000 feet, that means for a vast area of the Intermediate sheet at Royston area you have up to 700 feet of oil pay.

Chinook will be very commercial imo, being an onshore discovery with circa 30 to 50 million barrels recoverable - that is equivalent of an offshore discovery of 150 to 250 million barrels recoverable - given cost of development means onshore is worth 5 times offshore size.

Royston, looks vast, looks big. Could well be a 100+ million recoverable barrel size discovery, but it will need an appraisal well to open that up - which is of course Krakken-1 which will appraise the Royston intermediate sheet before going down to the potentially jumbo size Cretaceous below.

While everyone wants everything as fast as possible, here, you are going to have to wait.

Most important for TXP now is to get Coho online and then Cascadura online. Coho will provide a step change in revenue, adding 500K per month with 10mmscf/day.

When Coho-2 is drilled that pretty instantly moves up to 1,000K per month with another 10mmscf/day. I believe Coho-2 will be drilled in Q1 2022. Got to add more cashflow.

Cascadura adds initially at 90mmscf/day around 4,500K per month which is a massive change and then allows TXP to self fund everything going forward.

So TXP holders need a little patience to see us through to Coho-1 online, then Coho-2 online, then Cascadura ST1 and Deep1 online.

Then its all systems go for as much drilling as they can do.

I dont know what order they will drill.

For me, Guabine is last, this one would be tied into Chinook development, so its not really a rush, I would guess exploration drill number 3.

Steelhead, could be integrated into Royston development, so perhaps they might want to drill this first before submitting the EIA for Royston ?

However, with this very exciting oil discovery and the current very high oil prices they might want to drill Krakken-1 first ?

So whether its Steelhead-1 first or Krakken-1 first I dont know, all I surmise currently is that Coho-2 will be the first new well of 2022 in the Ortoire license area - with an additional 500K per month and it can be tied straight into production from discovery - thats a no brainer.

Get Coho-2 done by end of March 2022 and then :

Coho-1 + Coho-2 = 20mmscf/day production
March 2022 will see the new reserves report for year end 2021 (which will now include Cascadura Deep and Royston)

So by April 2022 very easy to go to the bank and increase the credit facility from 20m dollars to 50m dollars which then pays for Royston development and sees them through to Cascadura online.

Thats the path to zero dilution and maximized shareholder returns imo. Short term traders wont like it, but tough, they are not investing only trading.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#457881

Postby Sorcery » November 13th, 2021, 11:55 pm

Prosolenes,

Got to say well done. You have been a one man PR company/salesman for Touchstone and you have been proved right(ish). The ish is because time will tell, don't want you think you are at guru status yet. Anyway I bought some, I had a better idea what I was looking at when I saw the Touchstone Royston news.

Have a rec.

Sorcery

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#459156

Postby Proselenes » November 19th, 2021, 4:36 am

Comments from North ASA in their Q3 report. Coho early 2022. Cascadura online H1 2022. Royston-1 oil discovery highly significant.


https://northenergy.no/wp-content/uploa ... 3-2021.pdf

Touchstone Exploration Inc.

The Company’s key financial investment is in Touchstone Exploration with an ownership interest of 6.0 per cent by the end of the third quarter, up from 5.9 per cent last quarter. During the quarter, the company announced the completion of drilling of the Royston-1 exploration well and the drilling results. The well, which is the deepest exploration well drilled by Touchstone to date, encountered substantial hydrocarbon accumulations. An aggregate of 393 gross feet of hydrocarbon pay was identified in two unique thrusts sheets in the Herrera GR7 and GR7bc sands.

The results from Royston-1 exceeded pre-drill expectations, but the extent and commercial assessment of the discovery is pending production testing.

After quarter end Touchstone announced the result of the first of three planned production tests of Royston-1, which confirmed a light oil discovery in the lowermost section of the well. The discovery of oil in lower parts of the well within the Herrera sands is very important as it opens up a new oil play that can be developed alongside the targeted gas play in Herrera sands (production test two and three) higher up in the well. Middle Miocene turbidite deposits have historically been prolific producers onshore Trinidad. As highlighted by the company, the Royston-1 well did not target the best sands in the lower intermediate Herrera GR7a sheet and future wells are likely to be optimized to target these sections.

A light oil discovery in Royston1 also bodes well for the Krakken well planned for 2022, in which the company intends to target a very large cretaceous turbidite play similar to the Guyana/Suriname discoveries.

The company aims to bring the Coho-1 discovery onto production in early 2022. Coho-1 was the first well drilled in the 5-well programme on the Ortoire Block. The company estimates the net future production rate from Coho-1 to be in the range from 1,300 – 1,600 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, which will double the company’s overall production.

The two Cascadura wells are targeted for production in the first half of 2022. The company estimates the net future production rate from Cascadura to be in the range of 10,000 – 13,000 boe per day, with additional upside from future development wells.

Touchstone expects production from the Ortoire block to increase cash flow significantly and contribute to a substantial reduction in volatility of future earnings. Based on the natural gas sales agreement with the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago, Touchstone has secured offtake for all natural gas produced from the Ortoire license.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#459449

Postby Proselenes » November 20th, 2021, 12:20 am

Canaccord raise target price to 200p

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-r ... 23926.html

..............Canaccord said following Touchstone's analyst presentation and third-quarter results, it was now possible to add "a little more flesh to the bones" of the well test result.

The Canadian bank said its initial view that the oil discovery was "an important step forward" had been confirmed, though it also recognised that there was still "plenty to be done" to fully evaluate the scope of the commercial potential at Royston and the surrounding Ortoire licence.

Canaccord, which reiterated its 'speculative buy' rating on the stock, said the tested zone, the first and deepest of three planned, looked the least promising in terms of reservoir rock properties, yet the test also produced light sweet crude despite the equipment used being designed for gas flow.

"We think the information provided so far provides the foundation for thinking that Royston could be both a gas/wet gas (to be confirmed following two tests expected to be completed before YE21) and an oil development. Furthermore, the discovery of oil in the deepest levels of Royston-1 adds support to the possibility of oil in the nearby but deeper Krakken prospect," said Canaccord..................

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#460273

Postby Proselenes » November 23rd, 2021, 10:51 am

Cormark boosted the Target Price for TXP from 4 CAD to 4.5 CAD on 9th Nov following the Royston-1 light oil discovery.

4.5 CAD is 2.64 GBP a share.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/TXP/price-target/

If Royston-1 gas zone comes in good, we might see Cormark going up to 6 CAD a share target price imo.

Tick tock............

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#460465

Postby Proselenes » November 24th, 2021, 7:16 am

First page, for reference.

Image

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Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#462789

Postby Proselenes » December 3rd, 2021, 12:16 am

WD8 development well drilling is underway

Drone footage in the tweet link below :

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/statu ... 0592529411


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Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#462790

Postby Proselenes » December 3rd, 2021, 12:41 am

The big circa 9 million share short remains on TXP which continue to explain why the share price is still below 200p - with now proven flowed reserves/resources pointing to over 200p a share value with more to come with Royston-1 2nd and 3rd zones to be tested.

November 2021 figures added.

A small increase again (41K) in the actual short level (percentage same as more stock on CREST). Price being suppressed is ongoing.

TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings - average)

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49%
Aug 2021____8.45%
Sep 2021____8.39%
Oct 2021____8.37%
Nov 2021____8.37% (Loaned 8.910 million up from 8.870 million in October)


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