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Oil Price

piccadilly
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Re: Oil Price

#62148

Postby piccadilly » June 23rd, 2017, 9:00 am

I hold the oil stocks for the dividend yield - but this recent fall has had a significant effect on the value of my portfolio!

but I still may buy some more today on weakness! Anybody else buying?

RDSB yield nearly 7%.

TawnyOwl
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Re: Oil Price

#64718

Postby TawnyOwl » July 4th, 2017, 2:14 pm

Last year when oil went sub $30/b I became interested in this sector, something I'd never done before. The oil price was ridiculous, lower than it was 40 years back despite all the inflation. Clearly it couldn't stay that way. Despite not knowing much about them I piled into oil shares big time as it was such an obvious play and it worked extremely well.

But I don't think it's all over yet. My researches suggest that offshore and fracking cost $50/b overall and whilst much of the up front costs have been paid they continue production but further investment is unlikely so these will fade away.

As I write the oil price is still below $50/b. I think the oil price will continue to climb to maybe $60/b this year and $70/b next. My biggest holding is RDSB which would appear to offer yield and share price growth if this scenario pays out. You don't get that often.

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#67829

Postby petroleum1 » July 17th, 2017, 10:07 am

CNBC just published an article titled "Oil prices rise on strong China demand, signs of US output slowdown"
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/16/oil-pric ... wdown.html

Personally I think it is too early to come to conclusion. This may have put a bottom on the oil price slide. Other than that there is too much oil going round.

youfoolishboy
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Re: Oil Price

#67963

Postby youfoolishboy » July 17th, 2017, 6:44 pm

I like this article 2020 sounds about right for the spike
http://www.pantagraph.com/business/inve ... 31372.html

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#68249

Postby petroleum1 » July 18th, 2017, 10:58 pm

This article is in the FT but behind a pay wall.

"Oil consultant says Saudi Arabia considering 1m b/d export cut"

https://www.ft.com/content/89f4f876-84e ... fd374696cc

An exerpt exists in Twitter but cannot copy it. However I managed to get an exerpt from IV

"Saudi Arabia is considering a unilateral reduction in its
exports of a further 1m b/d to offset the rise in Libyan and
Nigerian production, although no final decision has been made,
consultant Petroleum Policy Intelligence says in a report,
citing unidentified sources."

Twitter recommend to treat this with caution.

Tymeric
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Re: Oil Price

#68277

Postby Tymeric » July 19th, 2017, 9:02 am

"Oil consultant says Saudi Arabia considering 1m b/d export cut"

I wonder if it might have something to do with this....

https://www.energyvoice.com/opinion/144 ... lut-weeks/

News sources reported that the output from Saudi Aramco’s massive Manifa oilfield has been hit by a technical problem.

The impact of this possible technical mishap is not to be underestimated. Aramco’s Manifa is one of its biggest oilfields, with a targeted production capacity of around 900,000 bpd, to be brought onstream in two phases. At present, the main issue being reported on is that there has been corrosion of the water injection system, which is used to keep pressure in the reservoir.....

TawnyOwl
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Re: Oil Price

#69652

Postby TawnyOwl » July 26th, 2017, 12:13 pm

Oil jumped over $2/b late yesterday on the news/speculation that Saudi will reduce exports by 600kb starting august the first and also try to whip other OPEC members to comply with policy.

Meanwhile Venezuela may face a ban on exporting to the US as the present government seeks to rewrite the constitution to prevent them being booted out. Venezuela also, I think, owes US oil companies billions of dollars for work done on their oilfields.

See http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... rkets.html

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#70774

Postby petroleum1 » July 30th, 2017, 5:51 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-d ... SKBN1AD2BE

The above article says physical crude markets are at last showing signs of tightening but at the end it says the following:

"The critical question is how much of this improvement is seasonal and how much will be sustained once summer is over."

It is also interesting to see the following phrase:

"So some of the slowdown in Saudi exports may be seasonal, but officials are keen to frame it as a deliberate policy to accelerate the reduction of global oil stocks."

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#80830

Postby petroleum1 » September 13th, 2017, 11:41 am

Saudi Arabia wants the oil price up so that they can get more money for their
Aramco IPO. They want OPEC to focus on export cut rather than production cut as
production cut means nothing when you have oil in storage that you can export. This will be discussed OPEC meeting in 22 September.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arab ... 1505295002

FredBloggs
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Re: Oil Price

#83577

Postby FredBloggs » September 26th, 2017, 10:37 am


petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#85322

Postby petroleum1 » October 3rd, 2017, 9:53 am

This plot shows the oil stocks are re balancing. Oil stocks drops from Sept to Dec for winter.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLJ9wIfWAAE483E.jpg

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#85325

Postby petroleum1 » October 3rd, 2017, 10:16 am

"Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to set up a $1 billion fund to invest in energy projects, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in a interview broadcast by Al Arabiya TV on Monday. "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saud ... SKCN1C70PN

To me this means that the oil price is not going to go down but rather to go up.

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#85373

Postby petroleum1 » October 3rd, 2017, 12:24 pm

Oil price subject is debatable. Now ING says the oil price is going to fall. Their forecast for the oil price is as follows:

Crude oil heading lower again, says ING
Forecasts $/bbl:
Brent
2017
4Q 45
2018
1Q 42
2Q 42
3Q 47
4Q 47

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#85380

Postby dspp » October 3rd, 2017, 12:50 pm

petroleum1 wrote:Oil price subject is debatable. Now ING says the oil price is going to fall. Their forecast for the oil price is as follows:

Crude oil heading lower again, says ING
Forecasts $/bbl:
Brent
2017
4Q 45
2018
1Q 42
2Q 42
3Q 47
4Q 47


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-continue-to-lower-oil-price-expectations-2017-09-01

Banks have cut their forecasts on oil prices for a fourth consecutive month as their analysts brace for further supply when OPEC's agreement to cap output ends next year.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries renewed a deal with 10 other crude-oil producers in May to withhold almost 2% of global oil supply. The accord is set to expire in March 2018 and concerns are mounting among investors and others as that date approaches.

A poll of 14 investment banks, surveyed by The Wall Street Journal at the end of August, predicted that Brent crude, the international benchmark, will average $54 a barrel next year, down $1 from the July survey. etc

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#85559

Postby petroleum1 » October 3rd, 2017, 10:57 pm

dspp

"While oil industry executives are preparing to live and profit in the world of $50 oil over the next few years, some enthusiast investors have been betting on $100 oil for December 2018 options."

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/T ... -2018.html

Rgds

Sorcery
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Re: Oil Price

#85808

Postby Sorcery » October 4th, 2017, 8:04 pm

petroleum1 wrote:dspp

"While oil industry executives are preparing to live and profit in the world of $50 oil over the next few years, some enthusiast investors have been betting on $100 oil for December 2018 options."

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/T ... -2018.html

Rgds


I am a little surprised that the oil price has been so low for so long. I know of demand/supply curves with price, however I wonder if the long term price or "expected" price is out of step with reason.
Yes Volkswagen (enemy of the people:)) are going all electric but until vehicle range and "refill" opportunities increase Im not sure I believe it will happen. Subsidised energy in the long term is not sensible. Wind and Solar and Tidal in the UK are still subsidised or are expected to be.
We have not yet found a commercial way of storing energy other than hydro (short supply in the UK). Oil/Gas production & consumption are heavily taxed. Not entirely convinced by the green arguments or Barrack Obama blaming CO2 for his daughter's asthma,
https://www.wired.com/2015/04/obama-sai ... er-asthma/
Of course most exhaled air is 4-5% Co2 so you would think 400 parts per million might be fairly innocuous.

In short I find all this magical green thinking to be utter rubbish and we will all wish that more oil&gas investment had gone ahead. So not exactly chucking money at the sector investment wise but never sold the sector either.

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#88301

Postby petroleum1 » October 14th, 2017, 6:54 pm

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/10/12/top ... -next-year

This article is published by Forbes.
The writers think that "we can see $75-$110 oil by early next year. That would set up for a big run in the lagging energy stocks".

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#88308

Postby dspp » October 14th, 2017, 7:10 pm

petroleum1 wrote:http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/10/12/top-oil-mind-convinced-$75-to-$110-oil-by-early-next-year

This article is published by Forbes.
The writers think that "we can see $75-$110 oil by early next year. That would set up for a big run in the lagging energy stocks".


It rather depends on how fast they can bring US shale online, and how many fingers have been burnt in lending to past sub economic shale. I am still very overweight in oil FWIW.

regards, dspp

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#88334

Postby petroleum1 » October 14th, 2017, 9:43 pm

Only the Permian shows a potential for an increase in production while the others do not show any potential for an increase.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/ar ... 12fig1.png

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#88403

Postby dspp » October 15th, 2017, 3:27 pm

petroleum1 wrote:Only the Permian shows a potential for an increase in production while the others do not show any potential for an increase.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/ar ... 12fig1.png


I agree those are the facts. But the lending market has been very irrational in the past. It doesn't take much for bubble mentality to set hold, and irrational lending to ramp up. Always worth checking the latest from Art Berman in this respect

http://www.artberman.com/blog/

He tends towards price increases. He also notes DUC stock is increasing mind you.

EDIT: His latest large slideset (sep 2017) is here and is worth a read for long term perspective
http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/upl ... r-2017.pdf

regards, dspp


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