The Lemon Fool

If anyone is struggling or not registered you can "watch only" via the Live You Tube link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNSTEI2QYKA

Currently presenting is Chariot Oil and Gas......next to present is TXP.

14th Jan 2021 Presentation Video (TXP from around 57 minutes and 20 seconds)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNSTEI2QYKA

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There is now no need to fund raise, there is no further dilution ahead. Paul does not have to "sell" the company in interviews and presentations, he does not need to attract buyers as he wants to raise more money. Dilution is over, as he himself said in the presentation.

He can now simply tell it as it is - he can actually be over cautious now and go more with the "under promise and over deliver" line.

If Coho comes on line in May, or June, or July........does not matter now, not going to effect anything (or maybe it does.....see later)

Casca and Chinook he has said "definitely before year end".....fine, allows to Dec 31st 2021 now for them to be on line.

Casca-Deep 2 well and Kraken-1 well "early in 2022".

Paul also confirmed that they will be using WSPCL Rig 60 for Royston. This is a big rig capable of 16,000 feet depth (1500 Horsepower) (note that he said Kraken was 14,500 feet depth).

So assume that once WSPCL Rig 60 has its cobwebs blown away drilling Royston-1 that this rig will be then used for Cascadura Deep-2 and Kraken-1 and potentially any "new" drill that might be added to the program for late Q3/early Q4.

This maybe where Coho on line has an effect, possibly if Coho is on line quick then a new well "Steelhead" will be added in 2021. If Coho is on line later than currently expected then "Steelhead" might be slipped into 2022 after Kraken-1 is done. Thats my view........hence no talk of Steelhead now as this will be a fill in well late 2021 "if" things are going swimmingly, or part of 2022 program if any slight delays to things in 2021.

No, it seems Steelhead is a mid-miocine gas target to the south of Royston.

Kraken is the cretaceous target underneath Royston. (Royston circa 10,000 feet and Kraken down at 15,000 feet)

Follow up Q&A session from the recent webinar.

HTTPS://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DgtV04qTuOU

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More gas demand.......

https://www.asiaone.com/business/mitsub ... ther-plant

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Below is the link for thebull8 (poster on ADVFN) DCF (minimum) Excel file.

This is the "minimum" projection (based on just Coho and current Cascadura)..........he is working on the maximum version.

https://gofile.io/d/qel65N

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Trinidad gas market.........


https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/trinidad-forecasts-challenging-year-for-gas-output

Beacon Securities Update

Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP-T, TXP-L) Catalysts On The Horizon January 29, 2021 Kirk Wilson, CFA (403) 819-5280 kwilson@beaconsecurities.ca

Event. As the end of January nears, investors are likely anticipating news on several fronts from Touchstone. Each of the events are important as the company continues to de-risk its Ortoire Block (80% WI) in Trinidad.

Chinook testing delayed a few days Cas Deep imminent. Issues related to Covid continue to affect operations as various pieces of the required gas testing equipment have been held up at customs. The result is that testing of Chinook will be delayed for 1-2 weeks.

Cas Deep testing still on schedule. Once the service rig has completed its work, the testing equipment can be moved back-and-forth between Chinook and Cas Deep such that results from Cas Deep should still come before the end of Q1/21. Expect a 3-test program of the Herrera sands at each of Chinook and Cas Deep. Road construction at Royston underway.

The next exploration well, which has the potential to be the largest yet (100-500 bcf possible), is nearing as the access road is being built now. Construction of the lease will follow, which should take ~30 days. So let’s say the first half of April for a spud. Tie-in of Coho still pending approval. Once TXP receives environmental approval from the ministry, which should come any day now, the company can begin the process of pipeline construction.

We continue to expect 1st production of natural gas by the end of Q1/21.

2022 forecasts. We are rolling out our 2022 estimates that includes 4 development wells at Cascadura/Chinook. This will be yet another major milestone as TXP moves away from only drilling higher risk exploration wells. We model an average of 19,000 boe/d, which compares to our expectation of 1,300 boe/d this quarter, and should generate FFO of more than double the capex.

Conclusion & Recommendation: TXP has several catalysts over the next few months that should continue to de-risk its nat gas exploration in Trinidad.

We maintain our Buy rating and our C$4.00 target price.

Touchstone from 7 minutes in. Malcy states...... masses and masses of upside to come from TXP......


Malcys 2021 bucket list.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI900LtYJEQ


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A good interview with Paul.

Extracts below with my comments....for the full interview click the link.....

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/lo ... 15b65.html


Coho-1 online in April.

Definitely looks like oil drilling in the SouthWest (waiting on new 10 year agreements to be signed off) with 5 to 10 oil wells drilled in 2021 from an inventory of 200. Oil breaks even at 28$ and any oil wells make a lot of money. In terms of the benchmark with Brent crude the Canadian firm produce, he explained that the company sells it to Heritage Petroleum and then they pay them every month, which works out to be 12 to 13 per cent discount to Brent.

Casca on line Q4 2021.

Baay said within the Ortoire Block, the Coho-1 exploration well was spud on August 7, 2019, and is expected to come on stream in April this year with about 10 million cubic feet a day of natural gas. And in the fourth quarter of 2021, the Cascadura-1 well will come on stream with 100 million cubic feet a day of natural gas and 2,000 barrels a day of oil.

“Assuming there is more success in the block, and a couple more exploratory wells that we have to drill, the company can see themselves over the next 24 months adding over 200 million cubic feet a day and somewhere around 4,000 barrels a day of oil.”

Baay said in his 30 years’ experience in the oil and gas sector the Ortoire block has surpassed his expectations, as the trajectory from 10 million to 200 million cubic feet a day is the advantage of drilling onshore, which means it can come on stream more quickly.

DCF model for 100MMCF and 200MMCF daily production in the link below (Excel).

Kindly provided by thebulll8 on ADVFN and hosted with their approval.

https://gofile.io/d/KKDMGe

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Coho approval is done.....onwards. This is a message from IR to a shareholder question.

Short position in Canada up 43,754 shares in the past 2 weeks, now at 752,334 total short.

$TXP.TO TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION INC. 752,334 43,754 5 Feb 2021

Probably them closing their new shorts on hearing of Coho approvals that caused the 6% rise in Canada on Friday. Expect the next update in 2 weeks to show a drop in shorts imo

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Timeline estimates for 2021.........thanks to Domus.


15th February - Coho construction start

27th February - Flow results Chinook + CascaduraDeep

15th April - Coho online

Late April - Spud Royston

Mid June - Royston TD reached/results

June/July - Flow result Royston

August - Spud Steelhead

Nov/Dec - Chin+Cas+CasDeep online

Nov/Dec - Oil well drilling in the South West

You can appreciate why Paul wants to get drilling oil wells again in the SouthWest in Q4 2021.........

They make a lot of profit, little cash cows and things look good on the oil price front. An inventory of 200 drill locations to choose from.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-glob ... SKBN2A70IM

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Confirmation Coho pipeline work starts 15th Feb,