dspp wrote:Edison have popped out a updated research note
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com ... 0/preview/
You can download a pdf that has additional discussion. They too have picked up the GOR issue and the need to either reinject or get an additional flare consent. They are hoping for a FO with a full carry of HUR through to first oil from an FFD. It would be nice if that could be achieved at a reasonable dilution as it is certainly one scenario. They've carried out a full DCF & oil price sensitivity analysis, but are holding lower reserves numbers than I used. They too are expecting a 5-well appraisal programme at $350m.
BTW (@Petroleum1 & @Nimrod) if I recall correctly are not HUR claiming to be able to get some fracture data from the seismic interpretation ? Fracture volumes (sorted into two classes if I recall correctly), connectivity, and orientation were all in their model as discussed in the last CPR. Technology is moving on. I am sure it will be further discussed in the new CPRs so I am not too fussed. Truth is in the drillbit mind you.
regards, dspp
If you recall, my doubts were about estimates of porosity in the CPR, which are largely unresolvable at this stage of the development. Truth will not come from the drillbit, but from perhaps 3-4 years of oil production, without a rapidly rising water/gas cut.