The Lemon Fool

Shorting update : March 2022 figures added.

A decrease of nearly 1 million shares in March, come from just over 9 million to now just over 8 million short in London. Been some days of high volume in London in March and some chunky trades.

March/April/May would be the ideal time to close the short into tax year end selling.

I still believe the "game changer" news is the 5 year full exploration extension granted in early March, which removes any need for TXP to raise money to "rush" more exploration drills. This likely closed what the short thought was their exit strategy and now they are having to buy from the market, albeit they have timed it well into general malaise and tax year end selling. Lets see how much they can buy back in April.......


TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings - average)

Jan 2021____0.52%

Feb 2021____1.23%

Mar 2021____7.14%

Apr 2021____8.65%

May 2021____8.79%

Jun 2021____8.74%

Jul 2021____8.49%

Aug 2021____8.45%

Sep 2021____8.39%

Oct 2021____8.37%

Nov 2021____8.37%

Dec 2021____8.72%

Jan 2022____8.49%

Feb 2022____8.64%

Mar 2022____7.77% (8.14 million short down from 9.02 million in Feb)

To put some "meat on the bones"......

Ortoire exploration period was due to end Oct 2020. At this point TXP could only retain areas that were classed as discoveries and the rest of the license would be relinquished.

Owing to Covid this was extended to July 2021 - and you notice the short went on in March 2021 - most likely under the expectation of a large fund raise to urgently drill Roystong and Bass and Steelhead and Guabine before the license had to be given up.

This makes sense, with such a lot of potential it was likely expected by the fund shorting that TXP have to fund raise to drill and claim discoveries before they lose exploration status of the licenses.

Now, with formal 5 year extension approval granted March 2022 (extending the license expiry from July 2021 to now July 2026) - TXP are in no rush to do exploration drilling, they can concentrate fully on ramping up production and cashflow and do the next exploration drilling in 2023/23/25/26 before the exploraton phase of the license now expires July 2026.

Therefore, the need for urgent money to drill exploration wells is now gone with the March 2022 news of the exploration license extension. With no further need to fund raise for urgent exploration drilling and with the ability to now sit back with Legacy production rolling in, Coho coming online in May and then Cascadura in September, the large short has no way out, except to buy back from the market and close the short while they can.

We shall therefore see how much is closed in April and May with the next lot of figures for stock on loan.

Coho pipeline being tested, soon to be put in the trench and on to first gas in May.

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/statu ... 1966445571

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Step change in the right direction in May, with the first gas production from Ortoire.

EIA approval is the major event. Hopefully before mid-May, but expected mid-May on current schedule.

Once they have the EIA I can see them expanding the debt facility from 30m up to 50m and then kicking off the non-stop drilling in H2 sometime, commencing with Coora x 2 and then Royston-1 sidetrack and then Cascadura B1 and B2, which will allow them to be at 200mmscf/day by Q2 2022 from Cascadura.

Everything in regards to timing hinges on EIA approval, maximum 6 weeks to go all being well, might be sooner.

Rosyton pad video overview now on Twitter :

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/statu ... 8537826304

I see the pump is running......wonder what that means.......oil being produced by the EWT.......all adds to cashflow.
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Stock remains very short.......

Extrremely difficult to buy, easy to sell.

Between London and Canada near 10 million shares shorted.......are they now trying to reduce/close the short ?

Seems that way.......but they are not finding any sellers, is a short squeeze about to happen ?

Another Royston video

Touchstone Explor. @TouchstoneExp

CEO, Paul Baay, is down at #Royston-1 taking a look at the pump jack and the space for future drilling on the pad

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/statu ... 3924980736

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New FinnCap note on TXP.

Download link is below (PDF file).

https://gofile.io/d/uSkrAj

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Paul Baay at the UK Investor Show

Date: The Global Group UK Investor Show will take place on Saturday 21st May 2022

Location: QEII Centre, London, SW1P 3EE


https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/statu ... 5545292823



Show link : http://www.ukinvestorshow.com/may-2022-show/

Josef Schacter - TXP a top pick

From 3 minutes 30 seconds in the video.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/josef ... ks~2425976

He says 6 CAD in 48 months, I would say 10 CAD in 24 months as a price target. But he will start low and gradually keep increasing his price target every 6 months I would think.

6 CAD is only 368 pence......my 10 CAD is a more likely 613 pence a share (after some Royston Deep drilling).

He refers to Royston being online in 2023, this refers to full FDP........they can and will keep producing by EWT until FDP is approved.

Q1 results and Operational Update due on this coming Friday.

Hopefully this bullish talk by the Minister will be backed up by Cascadura EIA approved later this month.

https://twitter.com/questCNN/status/1524129832090718211

Developing Cascadura fast from 0 to 60 to 90 mmscf/day in 2022 and then to 200 mmscf/day in 2023 is a key event.

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Nearly there.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... s/15448418

Coho 1st gas in 4 to 6 weeks - trenching in progress now.

NGC will buy the Coho pipeline from TXP (TXP has paid for it all so far, as started before the NGC gas agreement where they pay for all pipelines - will be a tidy sum coming back to TXP)

Cascadura FDP approved. Cascadura EIA no major issues, additional info to be submitted on 13th May then shortly after approval.

NGC has approval for the Cascadura pipeline, so once the EIA is signed off work commences immeadiately.

Malcys comments :

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/05/oil- ... d-finally/

..............Touchstone remains one of the outstandingly cheap stocks within this sector, after initial discoveries the market has taken its eye off the ball that should mean a substantial re-rating upwards from these levels. With exploration success feeding through to highly rewarding production of oil and gas which will themselves make TXP a self-financing and strongly financially secure investment.

I am looking forward to catching up with CEO Paul Baay on his upcoming visit to the UK at which time I will endeavour to book an interview and some ways to get this excellent message across to investors. ..........................

Shore Cap note on TXP just out. PDF file in the link below.

https://gofile.io/d/CNz2RS

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Interview with PB.

Coho "weeks away"......

Cascadura still planned on line end of Sept.

https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com ... 4121064625

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Xaviers presentation "Revisiting the Cretaceous of Trinidad" from April to the Houston Geological Society.

Most interesting.......insights into Krakken and Royston.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-X_5rqr3qA

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Interview link with Paul Baay on Proactive is below :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciBXtKdcI_U

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Hopefully by 2023 things will have changed, no help for TXP this year, but for 2023 onwards the changes (if they are implemented by year end) will be a big boost.


https://oilnow.gy/featured/tt-hopes-to- ... tax-terms/


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Coho....mid June....maybe.....

https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/fir ... 18b7a432b6

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