Tesla storage day, my notes copied across from Macro:
Best single list write up of detail here:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-5015502
My own big takeaways:
1. The product introduction roadmap remains on course and remains highly competitive;
2. The factory build programme remains on course, with confirmation that factories are now being sized for 1m cars/yr;
3. The cell supply programme is ramping commensurate with 20m cars/yr in 2030;
4. Plus the cell technology decline curve has been rebaselined in a way that likely obsoletes all competitors efforts and enables even more compelling products;
5. Plus raw material supply being assured;
6. Plus capex/GWh, space/GWh, and people/GWh are all being transformed downwards;
7. Plus the cell supply will now enable a 50/50 mix of vehicles/storage by 2030, though I am uncertain as to whether that is 50/50 in GWh (more likely), or revenue (less likely);
8; And probably about 1/3-2/3 of that future cell supply will now be internal to Tesla;
9. Plus I am very happy to watch the good top-team dynamics & competencies.
Adding this together it creates;
i. Hope for a more global energy rapid transition;
ii. Fear for the longevity of any dino-juice competitor that is not already with-it;
iii. Strategically this suggests they are now aiming for 20 factories by 2030, so if your country has not already booked a place on that map then your industry is toast;
iv. I will probably need to increase some of my valuations upwards to take account of the hoped for, but now confirmed, stationary storage volumes as well as the other stuff (autonomy etc).
v. I don't see anyone else, whether in vehicles or in storage, that has the scale and competency and resources and ambition to pose a threat at this time.
You can watch the presentation at
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/2020shareholdermeeting==========
My own notes during the presentation itself in reverse time order
QA
cell mfg in berlin
thermal mge for homes is pet project ... hvac .....maybe start working next year ....yackety yack (i agree with him)
CyT volume unknown, 0.6m orders, maybe 250k-300k/yr, for USA spec not global superset spec, int version for others late in smaller form)
(Texas direct sales maybe ....)
50/50 grid/vehicle battery demand long term
model 2 @$25k tips into virtuous cycle in mass market
fundamental constraint is cells, that is why TSLA are (now) entering it and focussed on it, so if they overdo it then maybe other manufacturers can dine off their crumbs
LFP for medium range 300mile ought to become normal, copy the pattern
v2g requires a mains cutoff (no Manure sherlock, i.e. Tesla powerwall is hub control)
aiming to stay profitable but push hard on affordability (m2 @$25k etc)
$25k model 2
(the Golf killer, so ID 3 equiv ........ coming in 2022) (so VW whammed)
oh and fast S Plaid .........Lucid dead on blocks 520 mile range and faster ....... available end 2021
vs 20 mln vehicles/yr (? 2030)
55% capex reduction
35% floorspace reduction
==
54% range increase
56% $/kwh reduction
69% capex per gwh reduction
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
bend that curve
good team dynamics
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
Function sharing battery / body
Nevada lithium mines R us
aim 100 GWh 2022>> 3TWH by 2030
Sparks equiv goes from 150 GWh to 1TWH
20GWh/yr per newbuild line
Kato Rd pilot is 10GWh
(some pilot, one year ramp)
prod plants 200 GWh/yr
confirmed 1m vehicles/yr per factory (at least for Shanghai, which is not a huge footprint)