The Lemon Fool

Clitheroekid wrote:It's neither a conviction nor a vindication.

Mr Asfari said:"...I have also commenced an appeal process in the Italian courts..."

I will be wearing a beady eye to follow this as I decided to sell 2 weeks ago having accrued 40%. With yesterdays/todays/tomorrows corrections, knowing the time to jump back in is the skill which very few are in possession of, me included.

From a purely personal view I have to say that the fall from grace has been highly gratifying. I'd sold in December at £4.80 (viewtopic.php?p=105406#p105406) and had been kicking myself ever since. But as of today it turned out to be a good decision.

But I do think it's very good value at £4.67, and I'll be watching carefully for a good opportunity to get back in.

panamagold wrote:I will be wearing a beady eye to follow this as I decided to sell 2 weeks ago having accrued 40%.

Congratulations on your remarkably good timing. You must have bought right at the bottom, at around £4, and sold right at the top at around £5.60, a truly incredible achievement!

I bought in mid-June at £3.89 and sold at £5.42. More by good luck than good management!

Clitheroekid wrote:But I do think it's very good value at £4.67, and I'll be watching carefully for a good opportunity to get back in.

And even better value at £4.62, so I'm back in again. Although I've bought it as a trade I'm more than happy to hold with the forecast yield as it is.

I can't believe the market is going to let me have another crack at scalping this one. Anything below 405p and I am back in.

Another good contract for PFC - http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... 92970.html

And I'm now back showing a healthy profit - I just wish I'd bought more when they dropped recently, but `twas ever thus.

Another EPC contract announced today for $580m with GCC National Oil Co.

More good news - another $200m contract - http://www.yourpetrochemicalnews.com/pe ... 48217.html

And nice to see the SP breaking through £5 this morning.

I see that the CEO, Ayman Asfari, bought 2,023,800 PFC shares today at a price of 494.11p.

He's in a better position than anyone to know what's going on there, and if he's willing to invest £10m of his own money in the company that says a hell of a lot.

Mind you, perhaps he's just day trading - he could sell tomorrow for a very handy £20k profit!

Clitheroekid wrote:I see that the CEO, Ayman Asfari, bought 2,023,800 PFC shares today at a price of 494.11p. He's in a better position than anyone to know what's going on there, and if he's willing to invest £10m of his own money in the company that says a hell of a lot.

Rumour had it that there were potential short positions building.

There was a suggestion on ADVFN that it was to increase the family holding to 25% which would prevent anyone putting in a low ball bid.

There was also this about a Moody's rating:

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN ... ative.aspx

The large family holding is a big negative for me on this share though I have been adding on the recent dip. They will only act in their own interests and clearly if the idea on ADVFN is correct that this was effectively a bid blocking manoeuvrer if just confirms it. I will still keep them though as I see more upside with rising oil prices.
Regards the Moody's report anybody that allegedly knows the business of Petrofac that suddenly decides that the corruption investigation was going to effect its ability to win orders knows absolutely nothing about the O&G contracting business.

youfoolishboy wrote:The large family holding is a big negative for me on this share though I have been adding on the recent dip. They will only act in their own interests and clearly if the idea on ADVFN is correct that this was effectively a bid blocking manoeuvrer if just confirms it.

While their interests are aligned with my own, I don't have a problem with their actions. I don't want my shareholding destroyed by a lowball bid, so I'm all for their action!

At some point, it may well be that their idea of the best way to run PFC differs from my desired outcomes (for the record: steadily rising dividend stream!) and I will have to look elsewhere, but for now, I'm a happy bunny.

I do not believe the family would accept any bid never mind a low ball one. I don’t think they want to lose the influence and jobs they have with the company or the income and more importantly the ability to keep a lid on what information is disclosed to prosecutors as new owners would probably decide to be more helpful. I see their motives as purely selfish and going forward I do not think they will have my interests at heart.
Why do you think that a majority of investors would sell for a lowball bid anyway? I would also question where the bid rumours have come from if its just ADVFN then I would be highly suspicious PIs on there make up crazy stories about anything just look at UKOG for an extreme example of the blind and the clueless in tandem.

I suspect a lot of your assessment of the family "motives" and likely behaviour may be close to reality. Where we differ is that I am happy with the consequences.
I used to hold SAB Miller (SAB) which was taken over for a fair margin: if I was a short term investor, I'd have been happy, but as a dividend investor I was annoyed that I'd lost a good company. If the Asfaris ensure that dividends keep flowing then we are aligned.

As for a lowball bid - that's always a matter for debate: a 25% premium on today's price of £5.24 might seem too good to pass up, but the shares were worth over £14 in 2014, and even over £9 going into 2017. If the price is depressed due to rumour and gossip (and potential fines / regulatory action) then I don't want some activist / vulture swooping in and taking my shares off of me because they have a view (like me) that the shares will recover once the air is cleared and (unlike me) can make a killing based on that judgement and risk assessment.

Sadly, I suspect many pension funds and shareholders who bought sub £5 would be happy with a 25% premium and offer their shares. That's why I think blocking a lowball bid is in my interest (and a not-so-low bid as well!)

So what's my price? After all, everybody has a price... how about 10 year's of dividends paid up front, on a price that was pre-scandal, so 40% over a £14 share price .

Any buyers for my small holding?

vrdriver -

I agree with you. I won't be making you an offer because I have sufficient of my own, some bought at the low point in the hope of cancelling the loss on the original holding. It may take a while but I feel reasonably confident that it will get there unless some opportunistic predator does manage to take it over which, like you, I hope won't happen.

They have cut the dividend though and if the fine is very large the divis might go completely. It should be rememebered too that this is a highly cyclic sector so by the time the fine is paid, I am certain there will be one, the cycle may turn again and divis may be non existant.
For me a take out at £8 includes a load of divis and gets rid of a lot of uncertainty as I dont expect it to regain its former highs in this oil cycle.

youfoolishboy wrote:They have cut the dividend though and if the fine is very large the divis might go completely. It should be rememebered too that this is a highly cyclic sector so by the time the fine is paid, I am certain there will be one, the cycle may turn again and divis may be non existant.
For me a take out at £8 includes a load of divis and gets rid of a lot of uncertainty as I dont expect it to regain its former highs in this oil cycle.

How can you be certain? Anyway, you can sell out when it gets to £8; no need to wait for a takeover which might never happen.

I feel certain they will get a fine as I have worked in this industry for 25+ years and have a good idea what happens in it if they avoid the fine I will be amazed.
Selling at £8 is all good and well but when will it get there or even will it? Take a bid at £8 no uncertainity and the ability to invest elsewhere.