The Lemon Fool

Hur is shown as 1.95% on short interest sites like shortdata and Shortracker UK. True accumulation is 3.83% I believe

However maybe better you stick to the standard readings on it. Mine are a bit off mainstream

SentimentRules wrote:Oh and lastly, I read something very misleading in other forums 're 'No short increases'

That statement cannot be factually be made.

For all you know 20 new funds shorted 0.4% each undeclared. However that can be sussed out too but no point me saying how. (Il be classed a doomster spiv lol). Anyway there we go. Another classic AIM manoever. Adios

So how do you find out what shorts there are at 0.4%. I’m interested to see for another AIM E&P SAVP.

Nen2319 wrote:

SentimentRules wrote:Oh and lastly, I read something very misleading in other forums 're 'No short increases'

That statement cannot be factually be made.

For all you know 20 new funds shorted 0.4% each undeclared. However that can be sussed out too but no point me saying how. (Il be classed a doomster spiv lol). Anyway there we go. Another classic AIM manoever. Adios

So how do you find out what shorts there are at 0.4%. I’m interested to see for another AIM E&P SAVP.

It is most unlikely SR can respond directly to your question. It is possible he was totting up the convertibles and assuming that all of these were the subject of the arbitrage play. Or he was back-calculating it by inference from whatever shorting odds he was getting. The second of these techniques might work on SAVP.

regards, dspp

The July 2019 CMD presentation is now up https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors/presentations

Correct. He’s too busy on ADVFN. Wow. He must get 5p a post or something

I've noticed that he's posting at a frenetic rate on advfn and has contributed to some posters abandoning the Hurricane board there. Shall trust my own research and that of posters I trust such as dspp.
Hurricane share price will be up and down like a yoyo for at least the next 6 months so I personally will just sit back and let the experts do their jobs.

Thank you Jess, that is most kind. I should point out that I make just as many mistakes as the next person so please take care.

Anyway, Amaja has posted on LSE HUR that the second shuttle tanker has lifted 450,000 bbls = 56,000 mt and is about to offload at Rotterdam in the morning.

As I said over there using API = 38 I get 56,000mt = 421,894 bbls, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity. However we have only been stated the API in round numbers, so the report from Amaja of 455,000 bbls may be correct, or the 56,000mt may only be approximate. Similarly I am not sure of the conventions for pressure and density correction in the tanker trade. Anyway Amaja has restated that so thank you to her and her sources in Rotterdam etc.

32 days lift to lift means averaging approx 13k bbls/day in round numbers, which is encouraging. However whilst the volume data - and the cash - are important, the pressure data is the key.

regards, dspp

I'd like to correct comments made about the ADVFN board.

For some time the original ADVFN board has been an exemplary discussion forum where a wide range of investors and commentators have engaged in a very civilised exchange. There have been contributions from all manner of experts with intimate knowledge of many aspects of the oil industry and the financial markets, people with hands on experience of the industry, diligent researchers who have dredged up all kinds of data sources and smart cookies with great analytical skills. It's somewhat reminiscent of the best days of the old Fool boards for Dana and Soco, but I'd say its rather better than either.

There have of course always been a few trolls but they have been easy enough to ignore.

Unfortunately in the past fortnight the board was attacked by SR who posted hundreds of comments all of which were very low quality and unworthy of attention. His posts were so prolific that they made the board unusable. It was simple vandalism. The board had been set up as a non-moderated space, so there was little to be done.

To deal with this problem a new board has been set up with an active moderator who has banned SR and other obvious trolls. All of the regulars have decamped to the new board where their excellent discussions are continuing unabated and unaffected by trolls. The new board can be found easily by searching for the HUR ticker and going to the new thread.

If SR or anyone else here is determined to vandalise/monopolise discussion then I'd recommend that active moderation be applied.

tournesol wrote:I'd like to correct comments made about the ADVFN board.

For some time the original ADVFN board has been an exemplary discussion forum where a wide range of investors and commentators have engaged in a very civilised exchange. There have been contributions from all manner of experts with intimate knowledge of many aspects of the oil industry and the financial markets, people with hands on experience of the industry, diligent researchers who have dredged up all kinds of data sources and smart cookies with great analytical skills. It's somewhat reminiscent of the best days of the old Fool boards for Dana and Soco, but I'd say its rather better than either.

There have of course always been a few trolls but they have been easy enough to ignore.

Unfortunately in the past fortnight the board was attacked by SR who posted hundreds of comments all of which were very low quality and unworthy of attention. His posts were so prolific that they made the board unusable. It was simple vandalism. The board had been set up as a non-moderated space, so there was little to be done.

To deal with this problem a new board has been set up with an active moderator who has banned SR and other obvious trolls. All of the regulars have decamped to the new board where their excellent discussions are continuing unabated and unaffected by trolls. The new board can be found easily by searching for the HUR ticker and going to the new thread.

If SR or anyone else here is determined to vandalise/monopolise discussion then I'd recommend that active moderation be applied.

tournesol,

I think you will find that the poster you are alluding to is no longer in a position to post here on TLF. It has been disappointing to watch how all otherwise good quality quickly forums can be affected.

regarding advfn if the correct link to the moderated board is https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44648680 then I am happy to put it up here [edit: this is the correct link, and be aware it goes to a area in ADVFN that requires free registration]. If it is a different link then please either post it, or PM me and I will put it up for you. On this occasion, given there is no hint of personal gain to either of us by doing so, therefore it is allowable.

regards, dspp

Hi DSPP

Thanks for that collegiate and constructive response.

The "new" moderated thread at ADVFN is [b]http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44648680[/b

I commend it to this house.

T

tournesol wrote:Hi DSPP

Thanks for that collegiate and constructive response.

The "new" moderated thread at ADVFN is [b]http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44648680[/b

I commend it to this house.

T

Ah, you have to be a ADVFN registered user to login and access that.

- dspp

While the new HUR board on ADVFN has been created by a premium member (so would normally only be accessible to the premium members), it has been opened up to the non-paying users.

A free ADVFN user account will get you access.
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44648680

A couple of papers courtesy skeptic1 on ADVFN

https://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/ ... 495-18-174
Fractured basement play development on the UK and Norwegian rifted margins
1 May 2019

http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523731/1/g46280.pdf
Natural fracture propping and earthquake-induced oil migration in fractured basement reservoirs
3 May 2019

regards, and again thanks to skeptic1, dspp

[edit: PS. These are well worth reading carefully, and it also worth comparing with the Belaidi et al 26 Sep 2016 paper from https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/assets/ ... al-library . The next papers will doubtless address depth-dependency in reservoir properties and I await with interest ]

Another one, this time courtesy hazydaisy on advfn

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/ ... o.pdf.html

Charging and Connectivity of Fractured Basement Reservoirs in the West of Shetland (North Atlantic, UK) -
Insights from Oil Geochemistry Studies*
M. Nuzzo et al
Search and Discovery Article #51545 (2018)**
Posted December 31, 2018

- thanks, dspp

and another one courtesy hazydaisy on advfn

Page 55,

Characterising the fracture properties of Lewisian Gneiss basement reservoirs Rona Ridge, West of Shetland

hTTps://www.geolsoc.org.uk/~/media/shar ... .pdf?la=en

from
The Geology of Fractured Reservoirs
24-25 October 2018
PROGRAMME AND ABSTRACT VOLUME

Edison report. Gives a good overview.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication ... ions/24722

I could not find anything of interest in that Edison report which has not already been reported before.

Should be noted that "This report has been commissioned by Hurricane Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hurricane Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update note"

It's clearly based on HUR's recent CMD, and presentations. And nothing new in there for anyone who watched the CMD video.

However, as Nen says, it does give a good overview. And not everyone has watched the CMD. It's not completely without value, though it's important, as you flag, that readers are aware it's paid research. Though I'm not sure in general the products of paid analysts are any less accurate than the independent ones (possibly more accurate in general!) - though they are certainly more likely to take a relatively positive view.

Hurricane back at 39p. I have topped up. Cash plus the Lancaster EPS system already extant were valued at 39p in the Edison report, albeit running for a decade at a higher POO.