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Renewable + conventional trends

dspp
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Renewable + conventional trends

#131882

Postby dspp » April 13th, 2018, 10:25 am

Prompted by this report I thought I'd start a new topic to follow aggregate trends rather than the parochial ones. Below are my skim read takeaways.

UN / Bloomberg : 2018 Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment - report

http://fs-unep-centre.org/sites/default/files/publications/gtr2018v2.pdf

MONEY - 2017

Wind $107bn, solar $180bn, large hydro $45bn (mostly Baihetan dam, China), $103bn new fossil plan, $42bn nuclear

Now the developing countries are putting more money in to renewables capacity adds than developed, i.e. getting closer to fully commercial basis.

LEVELISED COSTS - 2017

"In the U.S., for instance, in 2017 the average LCOE without subsidy for PV without tracking was $54 per MWh, with onshore wind at $51 per MWh, versus gas-fired generation at $49 per MWh, coal at $66 and nuclear at $174". See graph on p17.

POWER & CAPACITY - 2017

61% of new capacity adds renewables

19% global gen capacity now renewable

12% actual generation is now renewable

VEHICLES & STORAGE - 2017

1.1 mln EVs sold (vs about 85 mln conventional)

$209/kWh for lithium ion battery packs

crossover point for unsubsidised EV to equal/beat conventional in mid 2020s on lifetime cost; late 2020s on purchase cost

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#134863

Postby dspp » April 26th, 2018, 11:02 am

If you look at the latest annual GWEC report
http://gwec.net/cost-competitiveness-pu ... -in-front/

and in that look at the trend report
http://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2018 ... 8-2022.jpg

They are broadly predicting global wind installs will run flattish at 52-66 GW/yr .

Contrast that with the global PV trend
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/12/01/ ... modules-2/

which is basically climbing well above 100GW and showing no sign of decelerating and one has to wonder if there will in time be reduced demand for wind, i.e. will the flatlining wind market actually turn to a decline in due course. I can make the contrary argument that capacity factors are greater for wind, and that largescale deployment offshore of large rotor machines will further drive that, and that the wind/solar combi minimises storage costs, but nevertheless one has to wonder at the ways the trends are running.

regards, dspp

FredBloggs
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#134868

Postby FredBloggs » April 26th, 2018, 11:12 am

10 years ago, I'd never have said this, but to me, nuclear fission power plants are looking so much like a 20th century answer to a question we increasingly do not have to ask in the 21st century. I remain unconvinced that an EPR power plant will ever be commissioned in Europe. It seems to make less economic sense every day that passes. And in the past I have been a fervent supporter of nuclear power. The time for the present state of the art has now passed, I increasingly believe.


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