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Renewable + conventional trends

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#315756

Postby dspp » June 6th, 2020, 11:17 am

Nocton wrote:Thank you for this information about the Chinese electricity generation and your explanation about grids. I was surprised to see how much hydro the Chinese have.
I think the discussion started by ReallyVeryFoolish is the difference between how a physicist sees electrons (as quantum objects with a probability of being anywhere) and how an engineer does (as a flow of current) :D


Image

Fixed my imgur problem have I :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317047

Postby dspp » June 10th, 2020, 9:51 am

Even more wind turbines, more records,
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... newsletter


Yet again USA thinks it is the world
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... newsletter

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317615

Postby dspp » June 11th, 2020, 3:12 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Unfortunately behind a paywall, but this is a fascinating read in today's Telegraph. Myself, pretty much a life long advocate of nuclear base load generation for the UK, it's a sobering story how quick things can change. I'd never have thought I'd say it, even three years ago. But new build nuclear including Hinkley C makes abosutely no sense whatsoever in 2020 and beyond.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... wonderful/

RVF


RVF,

Like you I have been an advocate of nuclear baseload all my life. That is up until about 10-years ago when the data from models I was running using data that was beginning to emerge from large wind-turbines started to change my mind, and by 5-years ago I came to the conclusion that even CCGT (gas turbine power stations) will also come to an end (i.e. fairly soon we will stop installing them, and 20-30 years later the last one will go).

What we are seeing here is an example of how ideas & understanding slowly filter out into the population. Eventually even the politicians 'get it'.

Next stop, a BEV for everyone ! That is what the mkt cap of Tesla is telling us, i.e. now bigger than mkt cap of Toyota.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317929

Postby 88V8 » June 12th, 2020, 3:07 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I agree with you about CCGT though long term OCGT and GT/hybrid units will likeley have a place in transient power management especially at regional rather than national level on the grid.


Yes, we need something to fill unexpected gaps, unless we are going to have huge battery banks at local level. Which I suppose is possible, once early generations of EVs head for the scrapyard.

Talking of which.... I run two V8s and will so continue, but back in 75/6, I had the notion of civilising the commute from east of London by purchasing a redundant electric bread delivery van. Me driving, OH in a leather armchair in the back, recharge at work. This foundered on two fronts, the strange refusal of my City employer to recharge the batteries, and problems insuring a commercial vehicle for private use, a stance I did not understand then or now.
Anyway, I can see how this would have panned out; a mobile traffic jam behind us, and a humungous bill to replace the tons of knackered lead acid batteries. A narrow escape. But I would certainly have been ahead of my time.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318023

Postby 88V8 » June 12th, 2020, 6:36 pm

And talking of hydrogen, as I think someone was, here's a puff for a nifty gadget that uses hydrogen as a combustion enhancer in diesel engines.https://newatlas.com/automotive/hydroge ... 8-92456261
Now all I need to be eco-friendly is a Hummer with a 6 litre diesel.
Hopefully it will work better than the Water Injection that was offered in Exchange & Mart sixty years ago.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318187

Postby tramrider » June 13th, 2020, 3:31 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:RVF Towers takes delivery of a BEV third week this month. We await a smart meter fitting when we can then use overnight charging at around 5p per unit. The rate of change in this technology at grid scale has been breathtaking, though the big break throgh we need now is true grid scale energy storage. I agree with you about CCGT though long term OCGT and GT/hybrid units will likeley have a place in transient power management especially at regional rather than national level on the grid.

RVF


Well done on getting a BEV. We have had our second hand Nissan Leaf for a year and enjoy it a lot. Rather than a smart meter and paying 5p per unit, you could get some solar panels on your roof and a small household battery. The household battery does act as local energy storage to reduce the burden on the grid and you can recharge your BEV for 0p per unit on sunny days. 8-)

However, my main reason to reply is about the CCGT. I have been thinking through the graphs on https://gridwatch.co.uk which shows the interaction between variable renewables (wind + solar) and the main orange band of CCGT. It seems to me that the CCGT is the key power source at present to fill in the gaps in the variable renewable power. Also, it is acting as a 'sort of battery' at present, using storage tanks of liquid gas. When the power is needed, burn some more gas. When there are large quantities of renewables, just leave the gas standing in the tanks for another day.

As far as I can see, this is a satisfactory solution until the year comes when the renewables output one sunny/windy day would take the orange band negative! At that stage, we will need grid scale energy storage, probably as batteries.

I understand that National Grid recently paid some people on smart meters to burn off electricity for a few hours, so perhaps the changeover day is rapidly drawing closer.

Tramrider (yet another ex-physicist!) :lol:

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318294

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 10:42 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Regarding Solar PV at RVF towers - I think what the companies are charging for PV arrays in the UK is appalling. Here in West Australia, kw for kw, Solar PV arrays are about 1/3 or less of the UK price. Rip off Britain yet again.

RVF


RVF,

My rule of thumb for UK domestic PV at the moment is £1/W+VAT for a 4kW roofmount system using B-grade kit, or a bit more using A-grade kit. Note VAT is 5%. Here is one I costed recently for friends & family using A-grade kit. These are standard prices, no "mates rates", and are for professional MCS installer, (not me!). I don't recognise your comment about commodity panels, all this is commodity stuff:

4kW TOTAL = £4530 + 5% VAT = £4756 plus scaffolding (see later)

The preferred A-grade SolarEdge inverter can support up 5.7kW, and has a built-in software controlled export limiter. What that means is that this system could add extra panels easily without needing to buy another inverter, and so the cost for a 5.7kW system would go up pro rata except the inverter, to become
5.7kW TOTAL £6157 + 5% VAT = £6465 plus scaffolding (see later)

For a bungalow install no scaffolding is required. For a house install scaffolding is required, allow £550 + 5% VAT = £577 for budgeting purposes

So total estimates for XXX which requires a roof install & scaffolding would be
4kW system £4756 + £577 = £5333 inc VAT (i.e. £1.33/W)
5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

What are the corresponding Australian fully-installed prices on a domestic roof at these scales ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318305

Postby 88V8 » June 14th, 2020, 11:19 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:..., I got a similar/better return by paying the same amount of money into NG shares and using the NG divdends to pay for my energy.

Which brings us to Opportunity Cost, a factor often overlooked by those trying to flog us 'savings through technology'. If you had foregone that investment decision, the forecast divi would have been your Opportunity Cost.

dspp wrote: 5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

So in this case the Opportunity Cost at present is 6% x £7042 = £420 being the income you could make on Preference shares, say, gross of dividend tax, and that needs to be deducted from any annual saving to arrive at the true figure.

Here for instance is an apparently comprehensive savings calculator site which completely ignores this basic piece of economics.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what- ... -in-the-us
Well, when people are trying to sell stuff, there is a limit to how much truthiness one can expect, especially from a salesman.

There are of course good environmental reasons for installing pv, but it's best to recognise the whole picture as regards the economics.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318320

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 12:15 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
88V8 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:..., I got a similar/better return by paying the same amount of money into NG shares and using the NG divdends to pay for my energy.

Which brings us to Opportunity Cost, a factor often overlooked by those trying to flog us 'savings through technology'. If you had foregone that investment decision, the forecast divi would have been your Opportunity Cost.

dspp wrote: 5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

So in this case the Opportunity Cost at present is 6% x £7042 = £420 being the income you could make on Preference shares, say, gross of dividend tax, and that needs to be deducted from any annual saving to arrive at the true figure.

Here for instance is an apparently comprehensive savings calculator site which completely ignores this basic piece of economics.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what- ... -in-the-us
Well, when people are trying to sell stuff, there is a limit to how much truthiness one can expect, especially from a salesman.

There are of course good environmental reasons for installing pv, but it's best to recognise the whole picture as regards the economics.

V8

The elephant in the room - After say, 20 years you have a scrap PV system worth nothing. But after 20 years you still own the shares.

RVF


With the shares there is a non-trivial probability of business failure. That is why there is an equity risk premium, at heart a 7% yield (when gilts are 0% yield) is suggesting a 50% probability of failure 10-years out. Not to be ignored if one truly wishes to do like-for-like comparisons.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318322

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 12:22 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Thanks dspp -

Under the federal government’s Renewable Energy Target scheme, households and businesses installing systems up to 100kW are eligible to receive what is in effect an up front ‘discount’ off the cost of installing a system. The exact amount of this discount depends on a number of factors (including the system location, system size and certificate price), but the beauty of the program is that you don’t have to claim the incentive for yourself – it is passed through to you by the company that sells you your system, so all you have to do is compare prices

In Perth, this discount can cover over 30% of the up-front cost of a system – or about $2,670-$3,380 for a 5kW solar system. This incentive is one of the reasons that Perth’s average solar system prices are among the lowest of all Australia’s capital cities


Note, this includes significant government subsidy, something that hs been dropped in the UK as far as I know. $3000 = £1640 at today's approx FX. Note, that's installed and commissioned cost of a 5kw PV array. From memory, also you are capped at around 3kw for a PV array in the UK without special permissions?

Regarding my use of the word commodity, perhaps a poor choice of word - I bascally mean shopping around for no-brand generic PV panels. I am interested in this topic for when I get home and retire. I may well build a DIY system (we have a tame qualified electrician to test and commission it). The quotations I have had for a fully installed PV system in the UK have always been in my mind aimed very much at what the installer thinks the person will pay rather than a truly commercial propositon. The PV systems I have had quotations for are entirely non-competitive in pay back terms. The most recent about three months ago. Building my own PV sysyem, the sums change, obviously. I remain interested in the technology.

RVF

I just checked with Mrs RVF - We were quoted about 3 or 4 months ago for a 3.6(?)Kw solar PV + battery storage, £15000 installed. Rediculous. The installer thinks "what will this person with a nice house in a nice area pay?".


RVF,
Looks like your were quoted £5k for the solar PV, plus £10k for the batteries. That £10k, at the moment, is what good quality battery storage is actually costing in the residential market and the sales person is likely not making very much. That is why I own TSLA shares. If you were quoted £10k for a bad quality battery system the salesperson is laughing. But the £5k for the solar itself is about right, anywhere in the world.

In Perth, WA, the taxpayer is subsidising the affluent. It is not genuinely cheaper than the UK, just subsidised. In the UK the price you see is not subsidized. Again, compare like-for-like.

Generics can be either B or C (or D) grade. Without going into the details you get what you pay for, either in upfront performance, or in reliability, or in warranty & support. Most commercial solar farms use B grade. For my own house and for F&F I go with either A or B grade. C and D grade is what gets sold into developing markets and to 'rustic' types.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318345

Postby 88V8 » June 14th, 2020, 2:54 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:BEV charging, dishwasher, washing machine and tumble dryer can be expected to be part of that plan on time delays.

A trivial point, but digitally controlled devices are not always timeable, because when Off they revert to a state from which restoration of t'electricity supply does not turn them on. For this reason, the radio we leave on a timer when away on hols is a steam-powered Roberts, because the new fangulation digital gubbins remains stubbornly silent.

dspp wrote:With the shares there is a non-trivial probability of business failure. That is why there is an equity risk premium, at heart a 7% yield (when gilts are 0% yield) is suggesting a 50% probability of failure 10-years out.

True. Lloyds might go bust. Nothing is risk-free.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318356

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 3:44 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:.
Noted, it's some time ago, but not a long time back. I measured the viability of installing the PV array measuring the payback against spending the same money in NG stock. Using the dividends from NG to buy my energy. The NG stock won on the basis that it covered my energy bill and at the end of the useful life of the PV array (worth nothing), NG stock would still be worth having. Of all the companies out there, NG is one that is not going out of business anytime soon. ........Part of my professional responsibilities covers a 500 megawatt CCGT plant, so a couple of kw PV array will be easy!
RVF



I rather suspect that the practical lifetime of modern A or B grade solar PV will be more like 40-years. We used to figure on a new inverter every 5 years, and about 20-years for the panels. The inverters are often doing 10-years, and the degradation of modern solar is so little that I think we will in practice get 40-years with trivial maintenance. There are not many CCGT or OCGT plants that will see 40-years, even with intensive maintenance, and like you I know because I have done it.

May I gently suggest that the next 10-20-years of NG & DNO investment risk is going to be like nothing in the last 70-years (i.e. the 70-years since the UK etc grids were built out in earnest). In my own perfectly ordinary terraced house I am only £3k of expenditure away from the grid serving no purpose beyond a mere timing signal for 10-months of the year (and I think I can get that to 12-months, tbd). That statement ought to have every shareholder in NG, or DNOs, or generators quaking in their boots - and I know because of my connections that it is a risk recognised at board level by some (but not all) of the more farsighted boards.

The reason I say that is because my preferred solar installer is now able to do a basic LiPo battery system of 2.9kWh for £2000, with additional plug-in battery modules of 2.9kWh for £800/each. That's remarkably cheap, more typically they are still at the £10k price point. Already the only thing that actually costs me any money is the standing charge, and since I am ordinarily (time-wise) an exporter (and I am an overall net exporter) I think the DNO/NG should be paying me the standing charge. I am beginning to get seriously ticked off by being charged £85/year for standing charges when I am the supplier. If I were to put in a battery and stand my own interruption risk, I might just go on strike (i.e. go offgrid, cutting the gas connection as well). Now societally that would be a bad decision, but it gives you a feel for the way the wind is blowing. NG & DNO shareprices don't seem to reflect that risk sufficiently imho.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318428

Postby 88V8 » June 14th, 2020, 11:44 pm

dspp wrote:The inverters are often doing 10-years....

Often, is not inspiring.
But leaving that aside, other than the inverter what would be your off-grid single=point failure risk?

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318483

Postby dspp » June 15th, 2020, 9:13 am

88V8 wrote:
dspp wrote:The inverters are often doing 10-years....

Often, is not inspiring.
But leaving that aside, other than the inverter what would be your off-grid single=point failure risk?

V8


It is pretty much a single string system, so many !

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318798

Postby dspp » June 16th, 2020, 12:28 pm

global electrical consumption trends (thanks JohnKempReuters)

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44095

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#320369

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 22nd, 2020, 8:19 am

Exclusive: After BP takes a hit, investors widen climate change campaign

Although it was difficult to independently assess the impact of the campaign, Landell-Mills pointed to a series of moves that align with the investors' demands in letters here sent to BP, Anglo-Dutch major Shell (RDSa.L) and France's Total (TOTF.PA) in November.

In the letters, seen by Reuters, the investors questioned whether the companies’ oil price assumptions, which form the bedrock of their accounts, were aligned with the 2015 Paris climate accord, which implies sharp cuts in fossil fuel use.

Before BP’s writedown, the group’s letter to the British oil major said: “We have concerns that, at present, BP’s accounts may be overlooking material climate considerations, and consequently potentially overstating both performance and capital.” The same language was used with Shell and Total.

Total did not immediately respond to a request for a comment. Shell said it had “comprehensively responded” to similar demands by the investor group, and included climate risks in its accounts.

“Since that time, Shell has also published an ambition to be a net zero energy company by 2050, or sooner,” Shell said in an email to Reuters on Sunday.

Last week, BP cut its benchmark Brent oil price forecasts to an average of $55 a barrel until 2050, from $70, saying it expects a collapse in oil demand during the coronavirus pandemic to accelerate a low-carbon transition.

BP also said it would have to review some plans for early stage oil and gas exploration projects.

Meanwhile, Shell also lowered its long-term Brent crude expectations to $60 a barrel, from the 2018 price of $70, in its 2019 annual report published in March. Total also reduced its price assumptions at about the same time.

While majors often adjust price assumptions, the investors noted that Shell’s auditor’s report contained substantially more references to climate risks than the previous year.

“It’s tip of the iceberg,” Landell-Mills said. “And investors will have to understand that they (oil majors) are not going to be able to pay dividends like they did before.”

From:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-clima ... KKBN23T0K3

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#322862

Postby dspp » June 30th, 2020, 11:23 pm

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s transition from petroleum to electricity in road transport is accelerating, albeit from a low base, and will start to have a significant impact on oil consumption towards the end of the decade.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... KKBN2412SI

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#326342

Postby dspp » July 15th, 2020, 2:18 pm

Sub-continental grid baslancing markets increasing

Duke Energy, Southern Company and other electric utilities are discussing the creation of a Southeast energy imbalance market, utility spokespersons confirmed.
Energy companies are exploring a "centralized, region-wide, automated intra-hour energy exchange" that would be called the Southeast Energy Exchange Market (SEEM),


[15-minute balancing, loadsa battery values ...]

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/duke-s ... et/581556/

etc

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#327935

Postby dspp » July 22nd, 2020, 1:30 pm

"Data ....from Europe’s electricity grid operators, shows renewables generated an average of 44% of power across the 27-nation bloc and Britain from April to June, when many countries were in lockdown, against 37.2% in the same period last year. Daily peaks hit 53%.

The leading performer was Austria which saw renewables average 93% from a previous 91%, thanks largely to hydropower, the data showed. Portugal saw its share of renewable energy surge to 67% from 49%, while in Europe’s biggest economy Germany it averaged 54% up from 47.5%."


etc https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKCN24N111

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#328432

Postby dspp » July 24th, 2020, 12:20 pm



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