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Renewable + conventional trends
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
Rare earth supply stuff for neos, US tries to break away from China
(Mountain Pass was a colleague's "secret sauce")
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-r ... KKCN24T20I
- dspp
(Mountain Pass was a colleague's "secret sauce")
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-r ... KKCN24T20I
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
Intercontinental grid stuff
Australia fast tracks approval process for $16 billion solar power export project
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s plan to fast track the approval process for a A$22 billion ($16 billion) project to export solar power to Singapore could help it secure financing earlier than planned, the project’s boss said on Thursday.
The ambitious Australia-ASEAN Power Link project, run by Singapore-based Sun Cable, plans to supply solar power to Singapore and eventually Indonesia via the world’s longest subsea high voltage cable.
It would consist of a 4,500-km (2,800-mile) cable linked to a 10 gigawatt solar farm as well as an energy storage facility of up to 30 GWh in the Northern Territory. Both the solar farm and the battery facility would be the biggest of their kind.
etc
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN24V0S7
- dspp
Australia fast tracks approval process for $16 billion solar power export project
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s plan to fast track the approval process for a A$22 billion ($16 billion) project to export solar power to Singapore could help it secure financing earlier than planned, the project’s boss said on Thursday.
The ambitious Australia-ASEAN Power Link project, run by Singapore-based Sun Cable, plans to supply solar power to Singapore and eventually Indonesia via the world’s longest subsea high voltage cable.
It would consist of a 4,500-km (2,800-mile) cable linked to a 10 gigawatt solar farm as well as an energy storage facility of up to 30 GWh in the Northern Territory. Both the solar farm and the battery facility would be the biggest of their kind.
etc
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN24V0S7
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:dspp wrote:Intercontinental grid stuff
Australia fast tracks approval process for $16 billion solar power export project
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s plan to fast track the approval process for a A$22 billion ($16 billion) project to export solar power to Singapore could help it secure financing earlier than planned, the project’s boss said on Thursday.
The ambitious Australia-ASEAN Power Link project, run by Singapore-based Sun Cable, plans to supply solar power to Singapore and eventually Indonesia via the world’s longest subsea high voltage cable.
It would consist of a 4,500-km (2,800-mile) cable linked to a 10 gigawatt solar farm as well as an energy storage facility of up to 30 GWh in the Northern Territory. Both the solar farm and the battery facility would be the biggest of their kind.
etc
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN24V0S7
- dspp
Oh my, now that is impressive. Given the proximity of southern Europe to the vast empty spaces of the Sahara desert, exporting power from Africa to Europe falls into the trivial category. Only the lack of political stability along the north African coast would prevent such a venture. But given the trivial gap between Morroco and Spain, why not import North African power across the straits of Gibraltar? Win/win situation for both Africa and Europe.
RVF
You are describing Desertec, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec which so far has failed to progress. I think that there needs to be some form of constraint at the load-centre end to make these projects sufficiently attractive to be worth pursuing. In Singapore that consrtraint is land/water area, of which Singapore does not have a great deal. In contrast Europe is not short of suitable land near the load centres.
It remains to be seen whether SunCable will come to fruition.
Also there is an interesting trade-off between the attractiveness of (especially the E-W) time-shifting grid links, and the cost of storage. The lower the cost of storage, the less attractive to put in place the long distance grid links. Unless there are also other reasons to put those links in. E-W long distance rail links are the obvious candidates for power highways.
regards, dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
IEA wrings hands, says very difficult
How it works: The IEA is predicting how long a handful of nascent technologies, like long-haul electric trucks and different kinds of tech capturing carbon dioxide emissions, will take to go from an initial prototype project to capturing 1% market share of whatever country moves first.
Yes, but: The future is notoriously hard to predict. For its part, the IEA is increasingly facing scrutiny from climate advocates and some climate journalism organizations for not being critical enough in its analyses of the role played by fossil fuels.
no kidding
https://www.axios.com/clean-energy-new- ... 17612.html
- dspp
How it works: The IEA is predicting how long a handful of nascent technologies, like long-haul electric trucks and different kinds of tech capturing carbon dioxide emissions, will take to go from an initial prototype project to capturing 1% market share of whatever country moves first.
Yes, but: The future is notoriously hard to predict. For its part, the IEA is increasingly facing scrutiny from climate advocates and some climate journalism organizations for not being critical enough in its analyses of the role played by fossil fuels.
no kidding
https://www.axios.com/clean-energy-new- ... 17612.html
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
Gulf petrostates, should panic
"Like other Gulf Cooperation Council
countries, Kuwait shares its wealth generously with its population. Yet the way
in which it does so is inefficient, inequitable and economically distortive. This
is true both for the country’s conventional social safety mechanisms and for
two large-scale ‘quasi-welfare’ policies:
the provision of cheap or free energy and
large-scale public sector employment for
citizens. Current wealth sharing policies
are fiscally unsustainable given current
demographic trends, disproportionately
benefit richer households and deeply
distort markets for energy and labour."
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/105564/2/Refor ... it_New.pdf
- dspp
"Like other Gulf Cooperation Council
countries, Kuwait shares its wealth generously with its population. Yet the way
in which it does so is inefficient, inequitable and economically distortive. This
is true both for the country’s conventional social safety mechanisms and for
two large-scale ‘quasi-welfare’ policies:
the provision of cheap or free energy and
large-scale public sector employment for
citizens. Current wealth sharing policies
are fiscally unsustainable given current
demographic trends, disproportionately
benefit richer households and deeply
distort markets for energy and labour."
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/105564/2/Refor ... it_New.pdf
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
dspp wrote:Gulf petrostates, should panic
- dspp
Why the GCC’s Economic Diversification Challenges are Unique
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2020/08/07/ ... re-unique/
(aka it is so difficult having so much money)
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
Global renewables (Wind + Solar) double from 5% to 10% in last 5-years,
(trend seems set to double at same or similar rate imho)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... five-years
- dspp
(trend seems set to double at same or similar rate imho)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... five-years
- dspp
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- The full Lemon
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
dspp wrote:You are describing Desertec, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec which so far has failed to progress. I think that there needs to be some form of constraint at the load-centre end to make these projects sufficiently attractive to be worth pursuing. In Singapore that consrtraint is land/water area, of which Singapore does not have a great deal. In contrast Europe is not short of suitable land near the load centres.
Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are lots of demands on Europe's land. And Singapore itself is a city state, but is adjacent to the peninsula of Malaysia and with it the continent of Asia.
Iceland has long exported its abundant geothermal (and hydro) energy, not by running a cable to somewhere, but by running highly energy-intensive industries such as aluminium smelting. I'm guessing this more-ambitious project implies hopes of exporting on a larger scale!
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
thanks JohnKempReuters
"Diversify, consolidate or die: Energy transition poses stark choices to mid-sized oil companies
Noble Energy realised the independent E&P business model was failing long before Covid-19. Merging with Chevron buys investors some time, but is no silver bullet."
A proxy filing by Chevron last week revealed that Noble had been pursuing every conceivable route out of ‘business as usual’ for at least a year and a half prior to even negotiating with Chevron.
Starting in late 2018, Noble’s board held a series of “strategic reviews and strategy sessions” in search of ways to avoid being swept aside by the energy transition. In particular, they were concerned by:
…Noble Energy’s position in an industry that is undergoing dramatic changes as a result of increasingly negative investor sentiment following years of sector financial underperformance, concerns about the viability of fossil fuels and the impact of expanding environmental, social and governance matters and legal requirements.
In a nod to the ‘divest’ movement mentioned earlier, they also flagged up:
…significant potential financial and operating risks associated with environmental and other regulatory considerations, and growing pressure to diversify away from fossil fuels.
Unnerved by the risk of assets becoming stranded, they also analysed the breakeven price of Noble’s undrilled shale acreage in Colorado against even the most optimistic oil price forecasts, and realised:
Within 5-10 years, the remaining inventory would require higher oil prices to generate adequate returns.
Not only that. They saw that cleaner energy sources will prosper, while carbon-intensive fuels won’t offer the best route back to profitability:
The Noble Energy Board determined that given investor sentiment toward the sector, environmental and climate concerns and increasing regulatory requirements, ................... etc
https://energyflux.substack.com/p/diver ... die-energy
About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !
- dspp
"Diversify, consolidate or die: Energy transition poses stark choices to mid-sized oil companies
Noble Energy realised the independent E&P business model was failing long before Covid-19. Merging with Chevron buys investors some time, but is no silver bullet."
A proxy filing by Chevron last week revealed that Noble had been pursuing every conceivable route out of ‘business as usual’ for at least a year and a half prior to even negotiating with Chevron.
Starting in late 2018, Noble’s board held a series of “strategic reviews and strategy sessions” in search of ways to avoid being swept aside by the energy transition. In particular, they were concerned by:
…Noble Energy’s position in an industry that is undergoing dramatic changes as a result of increasingly negative investor sentiment following years of sector financial underperformance, concerns about the viability of fossil fuels and the impact of expanding environmental, social and governance matters and legal requirements.
In a nod to the ‘divest’ movement mentioned earlier, they also flagged up:
…significant potential financial and operating risks associated with environmental and other regulatory considerations, and growing pressure to diversify away from fossil fuels.
Unnerved by the risk of assets becoming stranded, they also analysed the breakeven price of Noble’s undrilled shale acreage in Colorado against even the most optimistic oil price forecasts, and realised:
Within 5-10 years, the remaining inventory would require higher oil prices to generate adequate returns.
Not only that. They saw that cleaner energy sources will prosper, while carbon-intensive fuels won’t offer the best route back to profitability:
The Noble Energy Board determined that given investor sentiment toward the sector, environmental and climate concerns and increasing regulatory requirements, ................... etc
https://energyflux.substack.com/p/diver ... die-energy
About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !
- dspp
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- Lemon Pip
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
dspp wrote:About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !
- dspp
I would imagine the best way forward for such a company would depend mainly on the quality of their assets? Producers with a relatively high full-cycle breakeven price will disappear, while low-cost operators might find avenues for profit, or even growth, within the upstream sector?
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
FabianBjornseth wrote:dspp wrote:About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !
- dspp
I would imagine the best way forward for such a company would depend mainly on the quality of their assets? Producers with a relatively high full-cycle breakeven price will disappear, while low-cost operators might find avenues for profit, or even growth, within the upstream sector?
Yes, as a generalisation. Though there are other factors such as likely ability to ride out low prices irrespective of asset quality, ability to transfer sectors, etc. Also - and this is a thing most operators forget - there are many companies in the oil & gas ecosystem who are not reservoir owners. What does a drilling company do ? A manufacturer of drilling rigs ? A seismic company ? A seismic widget manufacturer (hard rock plays will not keep them all fed & watered), etc ? And what does the O&G sector do to keep them in the game (as rewarding them with lower prices is not ordinarily a good motivational strategy).
There are a variety of possible strategies, all with pros and cons. The company I spoke with adopted the one called ignorance which is not what I recommended.
regards, dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
California blackouts, price of continually postponing 'must do' things,
JohnKempReuters: California blackouts illustrate risks of mishandled energy transition
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKCN25F106
Governor's letter
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploa ... nd-CEC.pdf
Heat wave
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-h ... KKCN25F05P
Energy conservation please
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cali ... SKCN25E1M8
Anyone wanna buy some storage ? Personally planting some trees on my GF's to get summer shade over some solar gain is on the to-do list before storage.
- dspp
JohnKempReuters: California blackouts illustrate risks of mishandled energy transition
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKCN25F106
Governor's letter
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploa ... nd-CEC.pdf
Heat wave
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-h ... KKCN25F05P
Energy conservation please
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cali ... SKCN25E1M8
Anyone wanna buy some storage ? Personally planting some trees on my GF's to get summer shade over some solar gain is on the to-do list before storage.
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
[UK] Electricity demand fell by 13% in second quarter which helped renewables grow to 40% of energy mix
etc
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... own-report
- dspp
etc
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... own-report
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
"Only one in 10 utility firms prioritise renewable electricity – global study
Vast majority of world’s electricity companies remain heavily invested in fossil fuels"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... obal-study
I don't think this will surprise anybody reading TLF.
regards, dspp
Vast majority of world’s electricity companies remain heavily invested in fossil fuels"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... obal-study
I don't think this will surprise anybody reading TLF.
regards, dspp
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- The full Lemon
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
dspp wrote:[UK] Electricity demand fell by 13% in second quarter which helped renewables grow to 40% of energy mix
- dspp
Don't headlines like that risk playing straight into a complacent story?
The season of long daylight hours and comfortable temperatures. Not to mention most of the season being exceptionally bright&sunny!
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
Following rolling blackouts, California utilities highlight reliability concerns in integrated resource plans
California utilities highlighted concerns ...., in the wake of rolling blackouts that affected hundreds of thousands of Californians for the first time in two decades last month.
The blackouts "clearly demonstrate a need for an operational reliability assessment" to ensure .... system reliability, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) said in its filing.
The main challenge for California is handling the net peak as [daytime] solar begins to roll off the grid
etc https://www.utilitydive.com/news/follow ... on/584634/
- dspp
California utilities highlighted concerns ...., in the wake of rolling blackouts that affected hundreds of thousands of Californians for the first time in two decades last month.
The blackouts "clearly demonstrate a need for an operational reliability assessment" to ensure .... system reliability, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) said in its filing.
The main challenge for California is handling the net peak as [daytime] solar begins to roll off the grid
etc https://www.utilitydive.com/news/follow ... on/584634/
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
dspp wrote:The main challenge for California is handling the net peak as [daytime] solar begins to roll off the grid
Dinorwig was designed to be refreshed overnight. Might need to build some more of that for solar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station
V8
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
"California made headlines for all the wrong reasons recently with widespread rolling power outages in the middle of a heat wave and a pandemic. These blackouts were not an accident—they were intentionally scheduled by the grid operator, .... due to a shortage of resources available to keep the lights on.
The California blackouts led to a frenzy of hot takes and finger-pointing based on instant diagnoses of the problems. .........It is important to diagnose the problem correctly so that we don’t administer the wrong medicine. "
https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/09/0 ... ic-system/
- dspp
The California blackouts led to a frenzy of hot takes and finger-pointing based on instant diagnoses of the problems. .........It is important to diagnose the problem correctly so that we don’t administer the wrong medicine. "
https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/09/0 ... ic-system/
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
The NordLink interconnector has transmitted the first power between Norway and Germany [a 1400MW x 700km connector].
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/09/07 ... 2020-09-08
We really are seeing a European supergrid coming into being, link-by-link.
- dspp
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/09/07 ... 2020-09-08
We really are seeing a European supergrid coming into being, link-by-link.
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends
Global energy transition already well underway
By John Kemp
LONDON (Reuters) - Policymakers still tend to talk about the global energy transition in the future tense, as something that might or will happen in the next few decades, but the transition is already well underway and shows signs of accelerating. Global energy consumption has already been shifting from a mid-20th century system dominated by coal and oil to one that will be dominated by gas and renewables by the mid-21st century.
article : https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... KKBN2621W9
chartbook : https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... (1965-2019).pdf
In his slides you see a 12% renewables growth rate. I used 15% in my fast case which gives 70% renewables by 2030. It will be interesting to see where it goes.
regards, dspp
By John Kemp
LONDON (Reuters) - Policymakers still tend to talk about the global energy transition in the future tense, as something that might or will happen in the next few decades, but the transition is already well underway and shows signs of accelerating. Global energy consumption has already been shifting from a mid-20th century system dominated by coal and oil to one that will be dominated by gas and renewables by the mid-21st century.
article : https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... KKBN2621W9
chartbook : https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... (1965-2019).pdf
In his slides you see a 12% renewables growth rate. I used 15% in my fast case which gives 70% renewables by 2030. It will be interesting to see where it goes.
regards, dspp
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