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Renewable + conventional trends

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#351061

Postby dspp » October 27th, 2020, 1:51 pm

Two coincidentals re aviation, or maybe not:

Where do global CO2 emissions from aviation come from?
(spoiler alert : the rich)
https://ourworldindata.org/breakdown-co2-aviation

UK looks for ‘sustainable' aviation fuel
(for combat)
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... ation-fuel

- dspp

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#351926

Postby dspp » October 30th, 2020, 10:26 am

Fairly self-explanatory, except that note that in this graph "electrified" = BEV + PHEV

Image

source https://www.jato.com/in-september-2020- ... ok-diesel/

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#352154

Postby 88V8 » October 31st, 2020, 11:12 am

Is nuclear 'conventional'?
Rumour is that we will see the go-ahead for the next upcoming overrunning cost exceeding shambles. Sizewell C.

Does the Govt not have a view or strategy on grid-level batteries?

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#352458

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 1st, 2020, 1:28 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:A longish read but one that chimes very much with my own views on today's energy landscape -

https://seekingalpha.com/article/438287 ... ie-of-2020

RVF

Well, the point from your link I've bolded/italicised is a straw man.

1. How clean is clean energy?

The rush to create solar panels and wind turbines has not considered the environmental threat that these sources of energy also pose to the world.

This is maybe best encapsulated by an article published on Foreign Policy, where the author stated:

The phrase ‘clean energy’ normally conjures up happy, innocent images of warm sunshine and fresh wind. But while sunshine and wind is obviously clean, the infrastructure we need to capture it is not. Far from it. The transition to renewables is going to require a dramatic increase in the extraction of metals and rare-earth minerals, with real ecological and social costs.

In 2017, the World Bank questioned the required metal extraction to generate 7 terawatts of energy by 2050, or an estimated 50% of the world’s energy.

Without exaggerating, it would lead to dramatic increases in the extraction of multiples metals. For instance it would likely require silver extraction to go up by as much as 100%. Indium could see extraction increase 920%. Both are essential to creating solar panels.

The author of the aforementioned article says that just to produce enough silver to transition half of the world’s energy to renewables, we’d need to commission 130 mines the size of the Mexican Penasquito mine, the largest silver mine in the world which spans 40 square miles. It is operated by Newmont Corp (NEM)


Of course, minerals will be mined, smelted etc. but that can do be done using non-fossil fuel derived energy (note how I tediously didn't just write clean!!), and then the products made from the minerals will be used to produce more non-fossil fuel derived energy.

So of course it's rather obvious that mineral extraction may have to occur, it's also obvious that this won't necessitate production of CO2, or at least not in worrying quantities. Hence point 1. is moot since the quest for green/clean/whatever is aimed at the reduction of CO2 production, I gave up reading the rest!

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#352719

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 2nd, 2020, 3:43 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:A longish read but one that chimes very much with my own views on today's energy landscape -

https://seekingalpha.com/article/438287 ... ie-of-2020

RVF

The authors of the article also state this:

Clean Energy is in. Dirty Energy is out. That's what they want you to think.
....
It's not as easy as that. Oil is in a cyclical downturn, not a secular one.
....


Isn't it ironic then, that the boards of the Supermajors are repositioning their strategies to aim to be "zero carbon" in the next few decades?

Matt

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#354352

Postby dspp » November 7th, 2020, 2:46 pm

First, they will ignore you,
then they will laugh at you,
then they will fight you and
then you win
======

"Conventional clean energy scenarios make the
common error of misunderstanding that disruptive
new technologies do not simply replace old ones
on a 1-to-1 basis. Instead, disruptions tend to
disproportionately replace the old system with
a new system that has dramatically different
architecture, boundaries, and capabilities. History
also shows that in most instances the new system
is much larger than the old one it displaces, and
the SolarWindBattery [SWB] disruption of the energy sector will be
no exception"


https://www.rethinkx.com/energy

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... 0-2030.pdf

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357554

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 18th, 2020, 7:52 am

Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will move up a ban on new petrol and diesel cars and vans to 2030 and is eyeing 250,000 new jobs as part of a green industrial revolution, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said as he tries to meet Britain’s net zero emissions climate target.

Johnson is seeking to show his government is on track to deliver manifesto promises after a tumultuous few days in which he was forced to self-isolate after coming into contact with someone with COVID-19, and his most senior adviser, arch Brexiteer Dominic Cummings, was ousted.

“Now is the time to plan for a green recovery with high-skilled jobs that give people the satisfaction of knowing they are helping to make the country cleaner, greener and more beautiful,” Johnson said in a column published in the Financial Times on Tuesday.

Britain last year became the first G7 country to set in law a net zero emission target by 2050, which will require wholesale changes in the ways Britons travel, consume energy and eat.

In total the plan would mobilise 12 billion pounds of government money, with as much as three times that amount coming from the private sector, and create and support 250,000 highly skilled green jobs by 2030, Johnson said....

Johnson, who has promised to increase Britain’s offshore wind power to 40 gigawatts by 2030 from around 10 GW now, pledged up to 500 million pounds for projects trailing the use of hydrogen including for home heating and cooking.

...The government would also help to develop large and small scale nuclear plants.

Johnson’s plan was broadly welcomed by industry.

“It gives a springboard to the huge opportunities for UK-wide investment and green jobs that a true low-carbon economy can bring,” Josh Hardie, acting director at the Confederation of British Industry, said in a separate statement.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-clima ... 7X2YY?il=0

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357600

Postby 88V8 » November 18th, 2020, 10:04 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:“Now is the time to plan for a green recovery with high-skilled jobs that give people the satisfaction of knowing they are helping to make the country cleaner, greener and more beautiful,” Johnson said in a column published in the Financial Times on Tuesday.

The 'plan' is long on woffle, short on detail.
And there is only a 'plan' at all because we are hosting COP26 next year and Boris wants to look good.

Ultimately, what matters is cutting the root cause of emissions and other environmental damage, ie the excessive human population, and there the govt has no plan at all.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357618

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2020, 10:22 am

88V8 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:“Now is the time to plan for a green recovery with high-skilled jobs that give people the satisfaction of knowing they are helping to make the country cleaner, greener and more beautiful,” Johnson said in a column published in the Financial Times on Tuesday.

The 'plan' is long on woffle, short on detail.
And there is only a 'plan' at all because we are hosting COP26 next year and Boris wants to look good.

Ultimately, what matters is cutting the root cause of emissions and other environmental damage, ie the excessive human population, and there the govt has no plan at all.

V8


The UK gov plan announced today is no plan. It is simply re-announcing stuff that was happening anyway.

(any car mfg co trying to make a living out of selling petrol & diesel in 2030 will have gone bust before then)

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357685

Postby richfool » November 18th, 2020, 11:57 am

And where will all the recharging points be for these "all electric" cars, including those for people who only have street parking or live in apartments.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357694

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 18th, 2020, 12:06 pm

richfool wrote:And where will all the recharging points be for these "all electric" cars, including those for people who only have street parking or live in apartments.

My suggestion would be that they will be on their house outside walls, next to where the gas/leccy box is right now. Don't you think?

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357698

Postby richfool » November 18th, 2020, 12:09 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
richfool wrote:And where will all the recharging points be for these "all electric" cars, including those for people who only have street parking or live in apartments.

My suggestion would be that they will be on their house outside walls, next to where the gas/leccy box is right now. Don't you think?

Matt

For people who have no parking adjacent to where they live and park 100 yards up the street on the other side of the road, assuming they can even get a parking space that close to home?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357710

Postby PeterGray » November 18th, 2020, 12:32 pm

For people who have no parking adjacent to where they live and park 100 yards up the street on the other side of the road, assuming they can even get a parking space that close to home?

That's the big one. There is a very significant proportion of the population living in houses with no off street parking. I can't put a figure on it, but as that applies to much of the mostly densly occupied areas of the country it must be a fairly large number. Even if you are lucky enough to park near your house you can't simply lay a cable across the pavement. Putting individual parking stations all the way along inner city roads wiould be massively expensive, though it may have to happen. Some places are apparently putting charging points in street lights - Southwark where my son lives apparently. But that can only deal with the initial stages of electric car uptake, street lights are too far apart. Charging rage is going to be the next big thing I suspect!

We considered a new car recently as our car was an insurance write off, largely due to age, but fixable. A new car would have been electric, but given the current state of public charging points in the SW our longer trips and weekends away would have become impossible, or far too stressful. So we're going to make our current car last a few more years, hopefully, by which time I expect to see charging being less of an issue (and thankfully we don't live in an inner city with no off road parking - though even in our pleasant small town in Devon most people have neither off street parking, or any chance of parking outside their houses.)

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357717

Postby Itsallaguess » November 18th, 2020, 12:47 pm

PeterGray wrote:
A new car would have been electric, but given the current state of public charging points in the SW our longer trips and weekends away would have become impossible, or far too stressful.


A topic that Matt covers in today's Telegraph -

Image

Source - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357724

Postby daveh » November 18th, 2020, 12:58 pm

My next car is going to be a plug in hybrid (at the moment), if they are still available. Most of my journeys can be done fully on electric providing I could plug in at the other end, but I would still have an ICE for the occasional longer journey. At the moment the majority of my journeys including my 15 mile each way commute are done on my (electric assist) bicycle.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357726

Postby seekingbalance » November 18th, 2020, 12:59 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
A topic that Matt covers in today's Telegraph -

Image

Source - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Such a shame that the press still perpetuates the range fear hyperbole. Sure, a 400 mile no-stop run is out of the question, but 150-200 mile range cars are common now, and for the vast majority of uses that is more than enough.

When the Government starts charging by the mile for all road journeys I wonder how many people will worry about battery range? https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/ca ... ing-uk-tax

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357731

Postby richfool » November 18th, 2020, 1:09 pm

Does the green money match the green rhetoric?

Critics argue that much of the £12bn in state cash announced by Boris Johnson as part of his “10-point plan” to decarbonise the UK economy by 2050 is not new – and that even the headline pledges are grossly insufficient.

Are they right? Or do the sums actually add up?

Broadly the critics are correct that the numbers being talked about on Wednesday to replace domestic gas boilers, install new wind power capacity and create new zero-carbon public transport systems and so on fall well short of what will ultimately be needed.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gover ... 41014.html
Or
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 24857.html

The joke about nearly having enough power to get his all electric car to the nearest charging point, hits the nail on the head. The sight of queues of people pushing their all-electric cars to the nearest charging point and joining a queue when they get there, springs to mind.

And you won't be able to rely on/use a hybrid:
And the new decision to bring forward the date at which the sale of new fossil fuel-only powered cars is prohibited from 2040 to 2030 really is a big deal, which will greatly stimulate both the demand and supply of electric vehicles.


And where does a person living on an intermediate floor of a block of flats install his windmill?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357739

Postby supremetwo » November 18th, 2020, 1:23 pm

How many megawatts does our present car and van transport consume?

How much extra electricity will be needed to replace it?

How much will it cost to upgrade the grid and all the substations to provide that extra power needed for electric vehicles?

How long will it take to dig up all the roads to properties for extra-capacity cabling?

How will that be paid for?

Will there be off-peak rates to spread the load?

I could go on - there are so many unanswered questions and an almost-total lack of data on which to make a judgement.

Unfair to load all those householders without vehicles with higher electricity charges, so smart chargers essential to add extra per unit if you charge a car and inevitably to add a road-fund charge to your bill at the same time.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357747

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2020, 1:40 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:RVF mansion presently has a 7kw charger for a PHEV. I understand that were I to go full BEV I would require a 20kw charger. Presently I am in a small minority in our street. Maybe a half or dozen or less houses casual observation would suggest in our road of maybe 60 properties have PHEV/BEV. All are blessed with a driveway. But, if all 60 properties were to go full BEV over the next few years and installed 60 x 20kw chargers, all switched on at night to charge one each BEV, how will the little substation half way down the road and the cabling down the street manage this extra load? Just one street in the UK. Hundreds of thousands of other streets just like it.

(RVF mansion presently has one regular petrol hybrid and one plug in hybrid vehicle. The vast majority of houses in the road have two or more vehicles. I expect in a fully BEV market place, the street is going to actually need 100 or more 20kw chargers. I may have greatly underestimated the required night time charging load in the street).

RVF


RVF,
1. Even if you buy a 400-mile range top-end Tesla S you could still be perfectly OK with your 7kW charger. For typical mooching-about days you'd easily replenish the charge back to full overnight. Then for the days you need to do 600-miles you hit the fast-chargers on the road network during your tea/eat-stops.
2. If all the properties in your street go over to having an EV charger on their driveway it is no much different than them starting all their kettles/cookers/etc simultaneously during the fabled football match half-time demand surge. If you do the sums per house per average miles/day you discover that a typical EV-recharge is not that different than a kettle. So unless you have a street absolutely crammed with 60-properties full of 400-miles/day roadwarriors who all arrive back simultaneously at 1730 it is not a problem.

PeterGray wrote:For people who have no parking adjacent to where they live and park 100 yards up the street on the other side of the road, assuming they can even get a parking space that close to home?

That's the big one. There is a very significant proportion of the population living in houses with no off street parking. I can't put a figure on it, but as that applies to much of the mostly densly occupied areas of the country it must be a fairly large number. Even if you are lucky enough to park near your house you can't simply lay a cable across the pavement. Putting individual parking stations all the way along inner city roads wiould be massively expensive, though it may have to happen. Some places are apparently putting charging points in street lights - Southwark where my son lives apparently. But that can only deal with the initial stages of electric car uptake, street lights are too far apart. Charging rage is going to be the next big thing I suspect!

We considered a new car recently as our car was an insurance write off, largely due to age, but fixable. A new car would have been electric, but given the current state of public charging points in the SW our longer trips and weekends away would have become impossible, or far too stressful. So we're going to make our current car last a few more years, hopefully, by which time I expect to see charging being less of an issue (and thankfully we don't live in an inner city with no off road parking - though even in our pleasant small town in Devon most people have neither off street parking, or any chance of parking outside their houses.)


PG,
This is indeed the big one. The numbers I have seen over the years are that about 35% - 40% of UK households do not have off-street parking. My personal expectation is that the hot chestnut of access to and control of and charging for residents parking is going to become white-hot and no politician will want to get involved and negotiate the compromises required to get good consensual outcomes given the UK FTP electoral system. Therefore the bleak reality is that a price differential will increase between homes with and without off-street parking. Those without will have to hit the paid-for charging networks periodically and this will be non-ideal in terms of user-adoption, total capex, and avoidance-of-profiteering. We already see some thin-end-of-the-wedges being set in place by some profiteering councils, controlled by the normal suspects. Personally I am in the no off-road parking category and it is an issue. Oh, and I have one of those councils ....

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357750

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2020, 1:45 pm

supremetwo wrote:How many megawatts does our present car and van transport consume?

How much extra electricity will be needed to replace it?

How much will it cost to upgrade the grid and all the substations to provide that extra power needed for electric vehicles?

How long will it take to dig up all the roads to properties for extra-capacity cabling?

How will that be paid for?

Will there be off-peak rates to spread the load?

I could go on - there are so many unanswered questions and an almost-total lack of data on which to make a judgement.

Unfair to load all those householders without vehicles with higher electricity charges, so smart chargers essential to add extra per unit if you charge a car and inevitably to add a road-fund charge to your bill at the same time.


s2,

Blame the government that span no-change into a ten-point plan to claim credit with no substance for er, no substance.

You'll find the answers to most of the questions you raise in the various threads on this O&G&E section, over the past several years.

This really is not that big a deal for the overall energy system, certainly the sky is not falling in.

The biggest issue in the UK will be access to overnight (slow) charging for those with no off-street parking, and there I fear the phrase that needs to be uttered, but is being avoided, is "not-for-profit". The intention by quite a few of the normal culprits is I fear blatant price gouging.

regards, dspp


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