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Renewable + conventional trends

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#315625

Postby dspp » June 5th, 2020, 6:00 pm

Nocton wrote:OK, dspp, but that would suggest that the Chinese do not have a National or even a large regional grid and this transmission link will be stand-alone. The transmission links that were built in the UK for coal-fired power stations are surely now carrying electricity from wind turbines, gas-fired power stations and solar panels? And when electricity arrives at my house there is no way I could tell where the electrons came from, even I had paid for a green tariff, unless there were a dedicated line from a wind turbine, say, to my house which was not not connected to the grid.
Perhaps the answer is given when you say "it will be predominantly renewables that goes along that link." (my italics)


The UK is quite a compact little country, but even ours is not quite the 'grid' that the name evokes. Redundant links maybe, full grid not. That's why a lot of the Scottish wind-renewables keeps getting transmission-constrained.

In China their grid is larger than ours, much larger, but again it is not a full 'grid'. I don't think any country has a full grid that can switch stuff any-old-way around unthinkingly. These new links are definitely being built to carry the renewables. Yes, they may carry some coal, just as the older (weaker) coal links will now carry some of the renewables. But they are being built to carry the renewables and wouldn't have been built for the coal.

Take a look at this for Qinghai: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... i_province
In particular look at how much hydro there already is, they will now build even more, plus wind & solar.

Then look at Gansu : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... s_in_Gansu which is at the midway point (ish). More coal I grant you, but these links are being built to enable the added wind, solar, hydro.

I visit China to meet my clients who are building this stuff, and planning even more. They are fixated on wiping out the coal. They know that more coal plants are being built continually (though that is tapering), but their very clear intention is to make them uneconomic to operate. So yes there is marketing nonsense in the ChinaPowerEtc press release, but these links genuinely are all about renewables. The pollution is a real internal political problem for the CPC so they will solve it, and solving it also solves a major external strategic threat to China (dependency on imported oil/coal/gas) so they are highly motivated.

(I'm sorry I cannot post a map - imgur seems to be down - anyone know why ?)

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#315698

Postby Nocton » June 6th, 2020, 8:14 am

Thank you for this information about the Chinese electricity generation and your explanation about grids. I was surprised to see how much hydro the Chinese have.
I think the discussion started by ReallyVeryFoolish is the difference between how a physicist sees electrons (as quantum objects with a probability of being anywhere) and how an engineer does (as a flow of current) :D

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#315756

Postby dspp » June 6th, 2020, 11:17 am

Nocton wrote:Thank you for this information about the Chinese electricity generation and your explanation about grids. I was surprised to see how much hydro the Chinese have.
I think the discussion started by ReallyVeryFoolish is the difference between how a physicist sees electrons (as quantum objects with a probability of being anywhere) and how an engineer does (as a flow of current) :D


Image

Fixed my imgur problem have I :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#315774

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 6th, 2020, 11:57 am

Nocton wrote:Thank you for this information about the Chinese electricity generation and your explanation about grids. I was surprised to see how much hydro the Chinese have.
I think the discussion started by ReallyVeryFoolish is the difference between how a physicist sees electrons (as quantum objects with a probability of being anywhere) and how an engineer does (as a flow of current) :D

:lol: Guilty as charged (obvious pun intended, by the way) that's very perceptive of you. In fact, I am extremely impressed.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317047

Postby dspp » June 10th, 2020, 9:51 am

Even more wind turbines, more records,
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... newsletter


Yet again USA thinks it is the world
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... newsletter

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317574

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 11th, 2020, 2:06 pm

Unfortunately behind a paywall, but this is a fascinating read in today's Telegraph. Myself, pretty much a life long advocate of nuclear base load generation for the UK, it's a sobering story how quick things can change. I'd never have thought I'd say it, even three years ago. But new build nuclear including Hinkley C makes abosutely no sense whatsoever in 2020 and beyond.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... wonderful/

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317615

Postby dspp » June 11th, 2020, 3:12 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Unfortunately behind a paywall, but this is a fascinating read in today's Telegraph. Myself, pretty much a life long advocate of nuclear base load generation for the UK, it's a sobering story how quick things can change. I'd never have thought I'd say it, even three years ago. But new build nuclear including Hinkley C makes abosutely no sense whatsoever in 2020 and beyond.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... wonderful/

RVF


RVF,

Like you I have been an advocate of nuclear baseload all my life. That is up until about 10-years ago when the data from models I was running using data that was beginning to emerge from large wind-turbines started to change my mind, and by 5-years ago I came to the conclusion that even CCGT (gas turbine power stations) will also come to an end (i.e. fairly soon we will stop installing them, and 20-30 years later the last one will go).

What we are seeing here is an example of how ideas & understanding slowly filter out into the population. Eventually even the politicians 'get it'.

Next stop, a BEV for everyone ! That is what the mkt cap of Tesla is telling us, i.e. now bigger than mkt cap of Toyota.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317748

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 12th, 2020, 1:06 am

dspp wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Unfortunately behind a paywall, but this is a fascinating read in today's Telegraph. Myself, pretty much a life long advocate of nuclear base load generation for the UK, it's a sobering story how quick things can change. I'd never have thought I'd say it, even three years ago. But new build nuclear including Hinkley C makes abosutely no sense whatsoever in 2020 and beyond.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... wonderful/

RVF


RVF,

Like you I have been an advocate of nuclear baseload all my life. That is up until about 10-years ago when the data from models I was running using data that was beginning to emerge from large wind-turbines started to change my mind, and by 5-years ago I came to the conclusion that even CCGT (gas turbine power stations) will also come to an end (i.e. fairly soon we will stop installing them, and 20-30 years later the last one will go).

What we are seeing here is an example of how ideas & understanding slowly filter out into the population. Eventually even the politicians 'get it'.

Next stop, a BEV for everyone ! That is what the mkt cap of Tesla is telling us, i.e. now bigger than mkt cap of Toyota.

regards, dspp

RVF Towers takes delivery of a BEV third week this month. We await a smart meter fitting when we can then use overnight charging at around 5p per unit. The rate of change in this technology at grid scale has been breathtaking, though the big break throgh we need now is true grid scale energy storage. I agree with you about CCGT though long term OCGT and GT/hybrid units will likeley have a place in transient power management especially at regional rather than national level on the grid.

The Telgraph article talks about the North Sea being the Wind Energy equivalent of Saudi Arabia! Amazing if it's only 25% true.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#317929

Postby 88V8 » June 12th, 2020, 3:07 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I agree with you about CCGT though long term OCGT and GT/hybrid units will likeley have a place in transient power management especially at regional rather than national level on the grid.


Yes, we need something to fill unexpected gaps, unless we are going to have huge battery banks at local level. Which I suppose is possible, once early generations of EVs head for the scrapyard.

Talking of which.... I run two V8s and will so continue, but back in 75/6, I had the notion of civilising the commute from east of London by purchasing a redundant electric bread delivery van. Me driving, OH in a leather armchair in the back, recharge at work. This foundered on two fronts, the strange refusal of my City employer to recharge the batteries, and problems insuring a commercial vehicle for private use, a stance I did not understand then or now.
Anyway, I can see how this would have panned out; a mobile traffic jam behind us, and a humungous bill to replace the tons of knackered lead acid batteries. A narrow escape. But I would certainly have been ahead of my time.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318023

Postby 88V8 » June 12th, 2020, 6:36 pm

And talking of hydrogen, as I think someone was, here's a puff for a nifty gadget that uses hydrogen as a combustion enhancer in diesel engines.https://newatlas.com/automotive/hydroge ... 8-92456261
Now all I need to be eco-friendly is a Hummer with a 6 litre diesel.
Hopefully it will work better than the Water Injection that was offered in Exchange & Mart sixty years ago.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318187

Postby tramrider » June 13th, 2020, 3:31 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:RVF Towers takes delivery of a BEV third week this month. We await a smart meter fitting when we can then use overnight charging at around 5p per unit. The rate of change in this technology at grid scale has been breathtaking, though the big break throgh we need now is true grid scale energy storage. I agree with you about CCGT though long term OCGT and GT/hybrid units will likeley have a place in transient power management especially at regional rather than national level on the grid.

RVF


Well done on getting a BEV. We have had our second hand Nissan Leaf for a year and enjoy it a lot. Rather than a smart meter and paying 5p per unit, you could get some solar panels on your roof and a small household battery. The household battery does act as local energy storage to reduce the burden on the grid and you can recharge your BEV for 0p per unit on sunny days. 8-)

However, my main reason to reply is about the CCGT. I have been thinking through the graphs on https://gridwatch.co.uk which shows the interaction between variable renewables (wind + solar) and the main orange band of CCGT. It seems to me that the CCGT is the key power source at present to fill in the gaps in the variable renewable power. Also, it is acting as a 'sort of battery' at present, using storage tanks of liquid gas. When the power is needed, burn some more gas. When there are large quantities of renewables, just leave the gas standing in the tanks for another day.

As far as I can see, this is a satisfactory solution until the year comes when the renewables output one sunny/windy day would take the orange band negative! At that stage, we will need grid scale energy storage, probably as batteries.

I understand that National Grid recently paid some people on smart meters to burn off electricity for a few hours, so perhaps the changeover day is rapidly drawing closer.

Tramrider (yet another ex-physicist!) :lol:

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318249

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 14th, 2020, 12:15 am

Biggest issue with CCGT in a future world dominated by renewables is that because of the steam turbine back end they cannot be turned on/off as quickly as you need for large but short lived swings in grid demand. They can load follow perfectly happily but that's not the same thing. CCGT is base load really, not peak load power. Presently the on/off demand is managed by power stations like OCGT, pump storage and diesel generator farms. In the future it's likely to be other grid scale storage, batteries being just one, electrolytic hydrogen another and where it fits with local heat/cold sinks, cryogenic air storage. I am sure other types will follow. Right now, the scale up of energy storage technologies is a very pressing problem indeed. It's likely that smart metering and BEVs will play their part too at a more local level.

Regarding Solar PV at RVF towers - I think what the companies are charging for PV arrays in the UK is appalling. Here in West Australia, kw for kw, Solar PV arrays are about 1/3 or less of the UK price. Rip off Britain yet again. Besides - The last time I looked seriously at investing in Solar PV, I got a similar/better return by paying the same amount of money into NG shares and using the NG divdends to pay for my energy. I could if I wished subscribe to a renewables only tariff. Effectively, outsourcing my home PV array to the market. So, I see no point whatsoever financially to invest in Solar PV in the UK. (I retire soon, will have much more time. I may investigate building my own PV arrays from commodity PV panels etc... available in the market place if you look).

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318294

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 10:42 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Regarding Solar PV at RVF towers - I think what the companies are charging for PV arrays in the UK is appalling. Here in West Australia, kw for kw, Solar PV arrays are about 1/3 or less of the UK price. Rip off Britain yet again.

RVF


RVF,

My rule of thumb for UK domestic PV at the moment is £1/W+VAT for a 4kW roofmount system using B-grade kit, or a bit more using A-grade kit. Note VAT is 5%. Here is one I costed recently for friends & family using A-grade kit. These are standard prices, no "mates rates", and are for professional MCS installer, (not me!). I don't recognise your comment about commodity panels, all this is commodity stuff:

4kW TOTAL = £4530 + 5% VAT = £4756 plus scaffolding (see later)

The preferred A-grade SolarEdge inverter can support up 5.7kW, and has a built-in software controlled export limiter. What that means is that this system could add extra panels easily without needing to buy another inverter, and so the cost for a 5.7kW system would go up pro rata except the inverter, to become
5.7kW TOTAL £6157 + 5% VAT = £6465 plus scaffolding (see later)

For a bungalow install no scaffolding is required. For a house install scaffolding is required, allow £550 + 5% VAT = £577 for budgeting purposes

So total estimates for XXX which requires a roof install & scaffolding would be
4kW system £4756 + £577 = £5333 inc VAT (i.e. £1.33/W)
5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

What are the corresponding Australian fully-installed prices on a domestic roof at these scales ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318305

Postby 88V8 » June 14th, 2020, 11:19 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:..., I got a similar/better return by paying the same amount of money into NG shares and using the NG divdends to pay for my energy.

Which brings us to Opportunity Cost, a factor often overlooked by those trying to flog us 'savings through technology'. If you had foregone that investment decision, the forecast divi would have been your Opportunity Cost.

dspp wrote: 5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

So in this case the Opportunity Cost at present is 6% x £7042 = £420 being the income you could make on Preference shares, say, gross of dividend tax, and that needs to be deducted from any annual saving to arrive at the true figure.

Here for instance is an apparently comprehensive savings calculator site which completely ignores this basic piece of economics.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what- ... -in-the-us
Well, when people are trying to sell stuff, there is a limit to how much truthiness one can expect, especially from a salesman.

There are of course good environmental reasons for installing pv, but it's best to recognise the whole picture as regards the economics.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318306

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 14th, 2020, 11:30 am

Thanks dspp -

Under the federal government’s Renewable Energy Target scheme, households and businesses installing systems up to 100kW are eligible to receive what is in effect an up front ‘discount’ off the cost of installing a system. The exact amount of this discount depends on a number of factors (including the system location, system size and certificate price), but the beauty of the program is that you don’t have to claim the incentive for yourself – it is passed through to you by the company that sells you your system, so all you have to do is compare prices

In Perth, this discount can cover over 30% of the up-front cost of a system – or about $2,670-$3,380 for a 5kW solar system. This incentive is one of the reasons that Perth’s average solar system prices are among the lowest of all Australia’s capital cities


Note, this includes significant government subsidy, something that hs been dropped in the UK as far as I know. $3000 = £1640 at today's approx FX. Note, that's installed and commissioned cost of a 5kw PV array. From memory, also you are capped at around 3kw for a PV array in the UK without special permissions?

Regarding my use of the word commodity, perhaps a poor choice of word - I bascally mean shopping around for no-brand generic PV panels. I am interested in this topic for when I get home and retire. I may well build a DIY system (we have a tame qualified electrician to test and commission it). The quotations I have had for a fully installed PV system in the UK have always been in my mind aimed very much at what the installer thinks the person will pay rather than a truly commercial propositon. The PV systems I have had quotations for are entirely non-competitive in pay back terms. The most recent about three months ago. Building my own PV sysyem, the sums change, obviously. I remain interested in the technology.

RVF

I just checked with Mrs RVF - We were quoted about 3 or 4 months ago for a 3.6(?)Kw solar PV + battery storage, £15000 installed. Rediculous. The installer thinks "what will this person with a nice house in a nice area pay?".
Last edited by ReallyVeryFoolish on June 14th, 2020, 11:44 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318310

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 14th, 2020, 11:37 am

88V8 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:..., I got a similar/better return by paying the same amount of money into NG shares and using the NG divdends to pay for my energy.

Which brings us to Opportunity Cost, a factor often overlooked by those trying to flog us 'savings through technology'. If you had foregone that investment decision, the forecast divi would have been your Opportunity Cost.

dspp wrote: 5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

So in this case the Opportunity Cost at present is 6% x £7042 = £420 being the income you could make on Preference shares, say, gross of dividend tax, and that needs to be deducted from any annual saving to arrive at the true figure.

Here for instance is an apparently comprehensive savings calculator site which completely ignores this basic piece of economics.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what- ... -in-the-us
Well, when people are trying to sell stuff, there is a limit to how much truthiness one can expect, especially from a salesman.

There are of course good environmental reasons for installing pv, but it's best to recognise the whole picture as regards the economics.

V8

The elephant in the room - After say, 20 years you have a scrap PV system worth nothing. But after 20 years you still own the shares.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318320

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 12:15 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
88V8 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:..., I got a similar/better return by paying the same amount of money into NG shares and using the NG divdends to pay for my energy.

Which brings us to Opportunity Cost, a factor often overlooked by those trying to flog us 'savings through technology'. If you had foregone that investment decision, the forecast divi would have been your Opportunity Cost.

dspp wrote: 5.7kW system = £6465 + £577 = £7042 inc VAT (i.e. £1.23/W)

So in this case the Opportunity Cost at present is 6% x £7042 = £420 being the income you could make on Preference shares, say, gross of dividend tax, and that needs to be deducted from any annual saving to arrive at the true figure.

Here for instance is an apparently comprehensive savings calculator site which completely ignores this basic piece of economics.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what- ... -in-the-us
Well, when people are trying to sell stuff, there is a limit to how much truthiness one can expect, especially from a salesman.

There are of course good environmental reasons for installing pv, but it's best to recognise the whole picture as regards the economics.

V8

The elephant in the room - After say, 20 years you have a scrap PV system worth nothing. But after 20 years you still own the shares.

RVF


With the shares there is a non-trivial probability of business failure. That is why there is an equity risk premium, at heart a 7% yield (when gilts are 0% yield) is suggesting a 50% probability of failure 10-years out. Not to be ignored if one truly wishes to do like-for-like comparisons.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318322

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 12:22 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Thanks dspp -

Under the federal government’s Renewable Energy Target scheme, households and businesses installing systems up to 100kW are eligible to receive what is in effect an up front ‘discount’ off the cost of installing a system. The exact amount of this discount depends on a number of factors (including the system location, system size and certificate price), but the beauty of the program is that you don’t have to claim the incentive for yourself – it is passed through to you by the company that sells you your system, so all you have to do is compare prices

In Perth, this discount can cover over 30% of the up-front cost of a system – or about $2,670-$3,380 for a 5kW solar system. This incentive is one of the reasons that Perth’s average solar system prices are among the lowest of all Australia’s capital cities


Note, this includes significant government subsidy, something that hs been dropped in the UK as far as I know. $3000 = £1640 at today's approx FX. Note, that's installed and commissioned cost of a 5kw PV array. From memory, also you are capped at around 3kw for a PV array in the UK without special permissions?

Regarding my use of the word commodity, perhaps a poor choice of word - I bascally mean shopping around for no-brand generic PV panels. I am interested in this topic for when I get home and retire. I may well build a DIY system (we have a tame qualified electrician to test and commission it). The quotations I have had for a fully installed PV system in the UK have always been in my mind aimed very much at what the installer thinks the person will pay rather than a truly commercial propositon. The PV systems I have had quotations for are entirely non-competitive in pay back terms. The most recent about three months ago. Building my own PV sysyem, the sums change, obviously. I remain interested in the technology.

RVF

I just checked with Mrs RVF - We were quoted about 3 or 4 months ago for a 3.6(?)Kw solar PV + battery storage, £15000 installed. Rediculous. The installer thinks "what will this person with a nice house in a nice area pay?".


RVF,
Looks like your were quoted £5k for the solar PV, plus £10k for the batteries. That £10k, at the moment, is what good quality battery storage is actually costing in the residential market and the sales person is likely not making very much. That is why I own TSLA shares. If you were quoted £10k for a bad quality battery system the salesperson is laughing. But the £5k for the solar itself is about right, anywhere in the world.

In Perth, WA, the taxpayer is subsidising the affluent. It is not genuinely cheaper than the UK, just subsidised. In the UK the price you see is not subsidized. Again, compare like-for-like.

Generics can be either B or C (or D) grade. Without going into the details you get what you pay for, either in upfront performance, or in reliability, or in warranty & support. Most commercial solar farms use B grade. For my own house and for F&F I go with either A or B grade. C and D grade is what gets sold into developing markets and to 'rustic' types.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318325

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 14th, 2020, 12:45 pm

dspp wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
88V8 wrote:Which brings us to Opportunity Cost, a factor often overlooked by those trying to flog us 'savings through technology'. If you had foregone that investment decision, the forecast divi would have been your Opportunity Cost.


So in this case the Opportunity Cost at present is 6% x £7042 = £420 being the income you could make on Preference shares, say, gross of dividend tax, and that needs to be deducted from any annual saving to arrive at the true figure.

Here for instance is an apparently comprehensive savings calculator site which completely ignores this basic piece of economics.
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what- ... -in-the-us
Well, when people are trying to sell stuff, there is a limit to how much truthiness one can expect, especially from a salesman.

There are of course good environmental reasons for installing pv, but it's best to recognise the whole picture as regards the economics.

V8

The elephant in the room - After say, 20 years you have a scrap PV system worth nothing. But after 20 years you still own the shares.

RVF


With the shares there is a non-trivial probability of business failure. That is why there is an equity risk premium, at heart a 7% yield (when gilts are 0% yield) is suggesting a 50% probability of failure 10-years out. Not to be ignored if one truly wishes to do like-for-like comparisons.

regards, dspp

Noted, it's some time ago, but not a long time back. I measured the viability of installing the PV array measuring the payback against spending the same money in NG stock. Using the dividends from NG to buy my energy. The NG stock won on the basis that it covered my energy bill and at the end of the useful life of the PV array (worth nothing), NG stock would still be worth having. Of all the companies out there, NG is one that is not going out of business anytime soon. Obviously variables ocver time lead to a range of outcomes. But if I get solar PV at all for RVF Towers, it'll be one that I build. Part of my professional responsibilities covers a 500 megawatt CCGT plant, so a couple of kw PV array will be easy!

RVF

Edited to add - The solar PV case for me may be terminally damaged when I get a smart meter and can use 5p per unit power in the night. BEV charging, dishwasher, washing machine and tumble dryer can be expected to be part of that plan on time delays. I will also have to see if hot water is cheaper by 5p unit versus gas consumption too. Interesting times indeed.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318345

Postby 88V8 » June 14th, 2020, 2:54 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:BEV charging, dishwasher, washing machine and tumble dryer can be expected to be part of that plan on time delays.

A trivial point, but digitally controlled devices are not always timeable, because when Off they revert to a state from which restoration of t'electricity supply does not turn them on. For this reason, the radio we leave on a timer when away on hols is a steam-powered Roberts, because the new fangulation digital gubbins remains stubbornly silent.

dspp wrote:With the shares there is a non-trivial probability of business failure. That is why there is an equity risk premium, at heart a 7% yield (when gilts are 0% yield) is suggesting a 50% probability of failure 10-years out.

True. Lloyds might go bust. Nothing is risk-free.

V8


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