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Renewable + conventional trends

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318356

Postby dspp » June 14th, 2020, 3:44 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:.
Noted, it's some time ago, but not a long time back. I measured the viability of installing the PV array measuring the payback against spending the same money in NG stock. Using the dividends from NG to buy my energy. The NG stock won on the basis that it covered my energy bill and at the end of the useful life of the PV array (worth nothing), NG stock would still be worth having. Of all the companies out there, NG is one that is not going out of business anytime soon. ........Part of my professional responsibilities covers a 500 megawatt CCGT plant, so a couple of kw PV array will be easy!
RVF



I rather suspect that the practical lifetime of modern A or B grade solar PV will be more like 40-years. We used to figure on a new inverter every 5 years, and about 20-years for the panels. The inverters are often doing 10-years, and the degradation of modern solar is so little that I think we will in practice get 40-years with trivial maintenance. There are not many CCGT or OCGT plants that will see 40-years, even with intensive maintenance, and like you I know because I have done it.

May I gently suggest that the next 10-20-years of NG & DNO investment risk is going to be like nothing in the last 70-years (i.e. the 70-years since the UK etc grids were built out in earnest). In my own perfectly ordinary terraced house I am only £3k of expenditure away from the grid serving no purpose beyond a mere timing signal for 10-months of the year (and I think I can get that to 12-months, tbd). That statement ought to have every shareholder in NG, or DNOs, or generators quaking in their boots - and I know because of my connections that it is a risk recognised at board level by some (but not all) of the more farsighted boards.

The reason I say that is because my preferred solar installer is now able to do a basic LiPo battery system of 2.9kWh for £2000, with additional plug-in battery modules of 2.9kWh for £800/each. That's remarkably cheap, more typically they are still at the £10k price point. Already the only thing that actually costs me any money is the standing charge, and since I am ordinarily (time-wise) an exporter (and I am an overall net exporter) I think the DNO/NG should be paying me the standing charge. I am beginning to get seriously ticked off by being charged £85/year for standing charges when I am the supplier. If I were to put in a battery and stand my own interruption risk, I might just go on strike (i.e. go offgrid, cutting the gas connection as well). Now societally that would be a bad decision, but it gives you a feel for the way the wind is blowing. NG & DNO shareprices don't seem to reflect that risk sufficiently imho.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318428

Postby 88V8 » June 14th, 2020, 11:44 pm

dspp wrote:The inverters are often doing 10-years....

Often, is not inspiring.
But leaving that aside, other than the inverter what would be your off-grid single=point failure risk?

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318433

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 15th, 2020, 12:33 am

Thank you dspp, this stuff moves very quickly. Having a smart meter installed ASAP and that's likely to change things again in a major way. I'll have access to 5p per unit electricty at night.

I rather suspect that the practical lifetime of modern A or B grade solar PV will be more like 40-years.


If I could pay 50% price for 50% of that life then that would be approriate for me. I'm retiring soon.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318434

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » June 15th, 2020, 12:35 am

88V8 wrote:A trivial point, but digitally controlled devices are not always timeable, because when Off they revert to a state from which restoration of t'electricity supply does not turn them on. For this reason, the radio we leave on a timer when away on hols is a steam-powered Roberts, because the new fangulation digital gubbins remains stubbornly silent.

V8

Buy ones with a time delay built, many appliances have this now.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318483

Postby dspp » June 15th, 2020, 9:13 am

88V8 wrote:
dspp wrote:The inverters are often doing 10-years....

Often, is not inspiring.
But leaving that aside, other than the inverter what would be your off-grid single=point failure risk?

V8


It is pretty much a single string system, so many !

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#318798

Postby dspp » June 16th, 2020, 12:28 pm

global electrical consumption trends (thanks JohnKempReuters)

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44095

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#320369

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 22nd, 2020, 8:19 am

Exclusive: After BP takes a hit, investors widen climate change campaign

Although it was difficult to independently assess the impact of the campaign, Landell-Mills pointed to a series of moves that align with the investors' demands in letters here sent to BP, Anglo-Dutch major Shell (RDSa.L) and France's Total (TOTF.PA) in November.

In the letters, seen by Reuters, the investors questioned whether the companies’ oil price assumptions, which form the bedrock of their accounts, were aligned with the 2015 Paris climate accord, which implies sharp cuts in fossil fuel use.

Before BP’s writedown, the group’s letter to the British oil major said: “We have concerns that, at present, BP’s accounts may be overlooking material climate considerations, and consequently potentially overstating both performance and capital.” The same language was used with Shell and Total.

Total did not immediately respond to a request for a comment. Shell said it had “comprehensively responded” to similar demands by the investor group, and included climate risks in its accounts.

“Since that time, Shell has also published an ambition to be a net zero energy company by 2050, or sooner,” Shell said in an email to Reuters on Sunday.

Last week, BP cut its benchmark Brent oil price forecasts to an average of $55 a barrel until 2050, from $70, saying it expects a collapse in oil demand during the coronavirus pandemic to accelerate a low-carbon transition.

BP also said it would have to review some plans for early stage oil and gas exploration projects.

Meanwhile, Shell also lowered its long-term Brent crude expectations to $60 a barrel, from the 2018 price of $70, in its 2019 annual report published in March. Total also reduced its price assumptions at about the same time.

While majors often adjust price assumptions, the investors noted that Shell’s auditor’s report contained substantially more references to climate risks than the previous year.

“It’s tip of the iceberg,” Landell-Mills said. “And investors will have to understand that they (oil majors) are not going to be able to pay dividends like they did before.”

From:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-clima ... KKBN23T0K3

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#322862

Postby dspp » June 30th, 2020, 11:23 pm

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s transition from petroleum to electricity in road transport is accelerating, albeit from a low base, and will start to have a significant impact on oil consumption towards the end of the decade.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... KKBN2412SI

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#326342

Postby dspp » July 15th, 2020, 2:18 pm

Sub-continental grid baslancing markets increasing

Duke Energy, Southern Company and other electric utilities are discussing the creation of a Southeast energy imbalance market, utility spokespersons confirmed.
Energy companies are exploring a "centralized, region-wide, automated intra-hour energy exchange" that would be called the Southeast Energy Exchange Market (SEEM),


[15-minute balancing, loadsa battery values ...]

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/duke-s ... et/581556/

etc

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#327935

Postby dspp » July 22nd, 2020, 1:30 pm

"Data ....from Europe’s electricity grid operators, shows renewables generated an average of 44% of power across the 27-nation bloc and Britain from April to June, when many countries were in lockdown, against 37.2% in the same period last year. Daily peaks hit 53%.

The leading performer was Austria which saw renewables average 93% from a previous 91%, thanks largely to hydropower, the data showed. Portugal saw its share of renewable energy surge to 67% from 49%, while in Europe’s biggest economy Germany it averaged 54% up from 47.5%."


etc https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKCN24N111

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#328432

Postby dspp » July 24th, 2020, 12:20 pm


dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#329399

Postby dspp » July 29th, 2020, 11:52 am

Rare earth supply stuff for neos, US tries to break away from China

(Mountain Pass was a colleague's "secret sauce")

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-r ... KKCN24T20I

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#329665

Postby dspp » July 30th, 2020, 12:25 pm

Intercontinental grid stuff :)

Australia fast tracks approval process for $16 billion solar power export project

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s plan to fast track the approval process for a A$22 billion ($16 billion) project to export solar power to Singapore could help it secure financing earlier than planned, the project’s boss said on Thursday.

The ambitious Australia-ASEAN Power Link project, run by Singapore-based Sun Cable, plans to supply solar power to Singapore and eventually Indonesia via the world’s longest subsea high voltage cable.

It would consist of a 4,500-km (2,800-mile) cable linked to a 10 gigawatt solar farm as well as an energy storage facility of up to 30 GWh in the Northern Territory. Both the solar farm and the battery facility would be the biggest of their kind.


etc
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN24V0S7

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#330087

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » August 1st, 2020, 5:48 am

dspp wrote:Intercontinental grid stuff :)

Australia fast tracks approval process for $16 billion solar power export project

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s plan to fast track the approval process for a A$22 billion ($16 billion) project to export solar power to Singapore could help it secure financing earlier than planned, the project’s boss said on Thursday.

The ambitious Australia-ASEAN Power Link project, run by Singapore-based Sun Cable, plans to supply solar power to Singapore and eventually Indonesia via the world’s longest subsea high voltage cable.

It would consist of a 4,500-km (2,800-mile) cable linked to a 10 gigawatt solar farm as well as an energy storage facility of up to 30 GWh in the Northern Territory. Both the solar farm and the battery facility would be the biggest of their kind.


etc
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN24V0S7

- dspp

Oh my, now that is impressive. Given the proximity of southern Europe to the vast empty spaces of the Sahara desert, exporting power from Africa to Europe falls into the trivial category. Only the lack of political stability along the north African coast would prevent such a venture. But given the trivial gap between Morroco and Spain, why not import North African power across the straits of Gibraltar? Win/win situation for both Africa and Europe.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#330309

Postby dspp » August 2nd, 2020, 9:57 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dspp wrote:Intercontinental grid stuff :)

Australia fast tracks approval process for $16 billion solar power export project

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s plan to fast track the approval process for a A$22 billion ($16 billion) project to export solar power to Singapore could help it secure financing earlier than planned, the project’s boss said on Thursday.

The ambitious Australia-ASEAN Power Link project, run by Singapore-based Sun Cable, plans to supply solar power to Singapore and eventually Indonesia via the world’s longest subsea high voltage cable.

It would consist of a 4,500-km (2,800-mile) cable linked to a 10 gigawatt solar farm as well as an energy storage facility of up to 30 GWh in the Northern Territory. Both the solar farm and the battery facility would be the biggest of their kind.


etc
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN24V0S7

- dspp

Oh my, now that is impressive. Given the proximity of southern Europe to the vast empty spaces of the Sahara desert, exporting power from Africa to Europe falls into the trivial category. Only the lack of political stability along the north African coast would prevent such a venture. But given the trivial gap between Morroco and Spain, why not import North African power across the straits of Gibraltar? Win/win situation for both Africa and Europe.

RVF


You are describing Desertec, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec which so far has failed to progress. I think that there needs to be some form of constraint at the load-centre end to make these projects sufficiently attractive to be worth pursuing. In Singapore that consrtraint is land/water area, of which Singapore does not have a great deal. In contrast Europe is not short of suitable land near the load centres.

It remains to be seen whether SunCable will come to fruition.

Also there is an interesting trade-off between the attractiveness of (especially the E-W) time-shifting grid links, and the cost of storage. The lower the cost of storage, the less attractive to put in place the long distance grid links. Unless there are also other reasons to put those links in. E-W long distance rail links are the obvious candidates for power highways.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#330322

Postby dspp » August 2nd, 2020, 11:53 am

IEA wrings hands, says very difficult

How it works: The IEA is predicting how long a handful of nascent technologies, like long-haul electric trucks and different kinds of tech capturing carbon dioxide emissions, will take to go from an initial prototype project to capturing 1% market share of whatever country moves first.
Yes, but: The future is notoriously hard to predict. For its part, the IEA is increasingly facing scrutiny from climate advocates and some climate journalism organizations for not being critical enough in its analyses of the role played by fossil fuels.


no kidding

https://www.axios.com/clean-energy-new- ... 17612.html

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#330324

Postby dspp » August 2nd, 2020, 11:58 am

Gulf petrostates, should panic

"Like other Gulf Cooperation Council
countries, Kuwait shares its wealth generously with its population. Yet the way
in which it does so is inefficient, inequitable and economically distortive. This
is true both for the country’s conventional social safety mechanisms and for
two large-scale ‘quasi-welfare’ policies:
the provision of cheap or free energy and
large-scale public sector employment for
citizens. Current wealth sharing policies
are fiscally unsustainable given current
demographic trends, disproportionately
benefit richer households and deeply
distort markets for energy and labour."


http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/105564/2/Refor ... it_New.pdf

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#332125

Postby dspp » August 10th, 2020, 11:53 am

dspp wrote:Gulf petrostates, should panic

- dspp



Why the GCC’s Economic Diversification Challenges are Unique
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2020/08/07/ ... re-unique/

(aka it is so difficult having so much money)

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#332921

Postby dspp » August 13th, 2020, 2:13 pm

Global renewables (Wind + Solar) double from 5% to 10% in last 5-years,

(trend seems set to double at same or similar rate imho)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... five-years

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#332984

Postby UncleEbenezer » August 13th, 2020, 6:13 pm

dspp wrote:You are describing Desertec, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec which so far has failed to progress. I think that there needs to be some form of constraint at the load-centre end to make these projects sufficiently attractive to be worth pursuing. In Singapore that consrtraint is land/water area, of which Singapore does not have a great deal. In contrast Europe is not short of suitable land near the load centres.


Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are lots of demands on Europe's land. And Singapore itself is a city state, but is adjacent to the peninsula of Malaysia and with it the continent of Asia.

Iceland has long exported its abundant geothermal (and hydro) energy, not by running a cable to somewhere, but by running highly energy-intensive industries such as aluminium smelting. I'm guessing this more-ambitious project implies hopes of exporting on a larger scale!


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