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Renewable + conventional trends

ReallyVeryFoolish
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#333063

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » August 14th, 2020, 1:37 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
dspp wrote:You are describing Desertec, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec which so far has failed to progress. I think that there needs to be some form of constraint at the load-centre end to make these projects sufficiently attractive to be worth pursuing. In Singapore that consrtraint is land/water area, of which Singapore does not have a great deal. In contrast Europe is not short of suitable land near the load centres.


Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are lots of demands on Europe's land. And Singapore itself is a city state, but is adjacent to the peninsula of Malaysia and with it the continent of Asia.

Iceland has long exported its abundant geothermal (and hydro) energy, not by running a cable to somewhere, but by running highly energy-intensive industries such as aluminium smelting. I'm guessing this more-ambitious project implies hopes of exporting on a larger scale!

I have seen it suggested in the past the Iceland could in fact be the equivalent of KSA in the hydrogen economy. I find it a bit hard to take in, I think liquid H2 is rather more risky than liquid methane (LNG) shipping.

RVF.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#333333

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » August 15th, 2020, 3:48 am

A fascinating insight into Shell's fast developing green strategy. Very nice to see Shell looking increasingly serious now at renewable technologies at large scale. In this case, combining off shore wind power and hydrogen generation + fuel cells. A flavour of the article in The Times, it's paywalled but google for - Shell looks to inflate case for generating power offshore.

Royal Dutch Shell hopes to boost the profits it makes from offshore wind farms by using surplus electricity to produce hydrogen and to charge batteries at sea.

The oil company claims that using such technologies to store energy, as well as installing floating solar panels next to the turbines, should enable it to offer “a continuous power supply”, even when the wind isn’t blowing.

Shell is preparing to put the technologies through trials at a new wind farm it is building off the coast of the Netherlands. If they are successful, they could be deployed more widely across the industry, according to the company.


RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#333824

Postby dspp » August 17th, 2020, 12:08 pm

thanks JohnKempReuters

"Diversify, consolidate or die: Energy transition poses stark choices to mid-sized oil companies
Noble Energy realised the independent E&P business model was failing long before Covid-19. Merging with Chevron buys investors some time, but is no silver bullet."


A proxy filing by Chevron last week revealed that Noble had been pursuing every conceivable route out of ‘business as usual’ for at least a year and a half prior to even negotiating with Chevron.

Starting in late 2018, Noble’s board held a series of “strategic reviews and strategy sessions” in search of ways to avoid being swept aside by the energy transition. In particular, they were concerned by:

…Noble Energy’s position in an industry that is undergoing dramatic changes as a result of increasingly negative investor sentiment following years of sector financial underperformance, concerns about the viability of fossil fuels and the impact of expanding environmental, social and governance matters and legal requirements.

In a nod to the ‘divest’ movement mentioned earlier, they also flagged up:

…significant potential financial and operating risks associated with environmental and other regulatory considerations, and growing pressure to diversify away from fossil fuels.

Unnerved by the risk of assets becoming stranded, they also analysed the breakeven price of Noble’s undrilled shale acreage in Colorado against even the most optimistic oil price forecasts, and realised:

Within 5-10 years, the remaining inventory would require higher oil prices to generate adequate returns.

Not only that. They saw that cleaner energy sources will prosper, while carbon-intensive fuels won’t offer the best route back to profitability:

The Noble Energy Board determined that given investor sentiment toward the sector, environmental and climate concerns and increasing regulatory requirements, ................... etc



https://energyflux.substack.com/p/diver ... die-energy

About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !

- dspp

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#333956

Postby FabianBjornseth » August 17th, 2020, 7:55 pm

dspp wrote:About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !

- dspp


I would imagine the best way forward for such a company would depend mainly on the quality of their assets? Producers with a relatively high full-cycle breakeven price will disappear, while low-cost operators might find avenues for profit, or even growth, within the upstream sector?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#333984

Postby dspp » August 17th, 2020, 10:16 pm

FabianBjornseth wrote:
dspp wrote:About 5-years ago a small oil/gas company asked me for my thoughts, then told me they would ignore everything I said. Occasionally, reading things like the above, I feel vindicated !

- dspp


I would imagine the best way forward for such a company would depend mainly on the quality of their assets? Producers with a relatively high full-cycle breakeven price will disappear, while low-cost operators might find avenues for profit, or even growth, within the upstream sector?


Yes, as a generalisation. Though there are other factors such as likely ability to ride out low prices irrespective of asset quality, ability to transfer sectors, etc. Also - and this is a thing most operators forget - there are many companies in the oil & gas ecosystem who are not reservoir owners. What does a drilling company do ? A manufacturer of drilling rigs ? A seismic company ? A seismic widget manufacturer (hard rock plays will not keep them all fed & watered), etc ? And what does the O&G sector do to keep them in the game (as rewarding them with lower prices is not ordinarily a good motivational strategy).

There are a variety of possible strategies, all with pros and cons. The company I spoke with adopted the one called ignorance which is not what I recommended.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#334428

Postby dspp » August 19th, 2020, 4:26 pm

California blackouts, price of continually postponing 'must do' things,

JohnKempReuters: California blackouts illustrate risks of mishandled energy transition
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-e ... KKCN25F106

Governor's letter
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploa ... nd-CEC.pdf

Heat wave
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-h ... KKCN25F05P

Energy conservation please
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cali ... SKCN25E1M8

Anyone wanna buy some storage ? Personally planting some trees on my GF's to get summer shade over some solar gain is on the to-do list before storage.

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#337098

Postby dspp » August 31st, 2020, 10:03 am

[UK] Electricity demand fell by 13% in second quarter which helped renewables grow to 40% of energy mix

etc

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... own-report

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#337282

Postby dspp » August 31st, 2020, 10:15 pm

"Only one in 10 utility firms prioritise renewable electricity – global study
Vast majority of world’s electricity companies remain heavily invested in fossil fuels"


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... obal-study

I don't think this will surprise anybody reading TLF.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#337394

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 1st, 2020, 1:05 pm

dspp wrote:[UK] Electricity demand fell by 13% in second quarter which helped renewables grow to 40% of energy mix
- dspp


Don't headlines like that risk playing straight into a complacent story?

The season of long daylight hours and comfortable temperatures. Not to mention most of the season being exceptionally bright&sunny!

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#338076

Postby dspp » September 4th, 2020, 11:59 am

Following rolling blackouts, California utilities highlight reliability concerns in integrated resource plans

California utilities highlighted concerns ...., in the wake of rolling blackouts that affected hundreds of thousands of Californians for the first time in two decades last month.

The blackouts "clearly demonstrate a need for an operational reliability assessment" to ensure .... system reliability, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) said in its filing.

The main challenge for California is handling the net peak as [daytime] solar begins to roll off the grid

etc https://www.utilitydive.com/news/follow ... on/584634/

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#338081

Postby 88V8 » September 4th, 2020, 12:32 pm

dspp wrote:The main challenge for California is handling the net peak as [daytime] solar begins to roll off the grid

Dinorwig was designed to be refreshed overnight. Might need to build some more of that for solar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#338785

Postby dspp » September 7th, 2020, 4:25 pm

"California made headlines for all the wrong reasons recently with widespread rolling power outages in the middle of a heat wave and a pandemic. These blackouts were not an accident—they were intentionally scheduled by the grid operator, .... due to a shortage of resources available to keep the lights on.

The California blackouts led to a frenzy of hot takes and finger-pointing based on instant diagnoses of the problems. .........It is important to diagnose the problem correctly so that we don’t administer the wrong medicine. "

https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/09/0 ... ic-system/

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#338795

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 7th, 2020, 4:56 pm

88V8 wrote:
dspp wrote:The main challenge for California is handling the net peak as [daytime] solar begins to roll off the grid

Dinorwig was designed to be refreshed overnight. Might need to build some more of that for solar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

V8

Electric Mountain (Dinorwig) is a fantastic facility. Sadly, I cannot forsee another one ever being built. Private companies can't really raise the finance for such a very long term venture. It's really sad because it's such a fantastic facility. But that's life, it seems.

PS - If anyone is interested and is able to visit Dinorwig, it is highly recommended. I was fortunate enough to visit with IMechE and got to see a lot that the Public doesn't generally see. But it's a great place to visit anyway.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#338872

Postby dspp » September 8th, 2020, 8:48 am

The NordLink interconnector has transmitted the first power between Norway and Germany [a 1400MW x 700km connector].

https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/09/07 ... 2020-09-08

We really are seeing a European supergrid coming into being, link-by-link.

- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#339562

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 10th, 2020, 8:40 pm

BP getting more serious about "Beyond Petroleum". Headline in The Times business section.

BP makes $1.1bn move into offshore wind power

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#339715

Postby dspp » September 11th, 2020, 4:17 pm

Global energy transition already well underway
By John Kemp
LONDON (Reuters) - Policymakers still tend to talk about the global energy transition in the future tense, as something that might or will happen in the next few decades, but the transition is already well underway and shows signs of accelerating. Global energy consumption has already been shifting from a mid-20th century system dominated by coal and oil to one that will be dominated by gas and renewables by the mid-21st century.

article : https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... KKBN2621W9
chartbook : https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... (1965-2019).pdf

In his slides you see a 12% renewables growth rate. I used 15% in my fast case which gives 70% renewables by 2030. It will be interesting to see where it goes.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#339716

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 11th, 2020, 4:24 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:BP getting more serious about "Beyond Petroleum". Headline in The Times business section.

BP makes $1.1bn move into offshore wind power

More in today's Times on the story that broke yesterday. Perhaps mildly unfair to say, but in this deal it does feel to me like BP are taking the crumbs from Equinor's (Satoil) table. Have to start somewhere and BP are coming later to the party.

New world of wind power for BP as it takes the plunge in America


From the article -

Analysts at Citi said that BP was “paying the price of a new entrant”, but added that it could expect to receive returns of about 9 per cent on the first of the leases, in line with its strategy, while Equinor could look to make 16 per cent.


RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#339795

Postby 88V8 » September 11th, 2020, 10:59 pm

I think over the coming decade I would rely on Shell, and perhaps BP, to pivot into renewables whilst paying me an income, rather than rely on renewables players to deliver divis in any sort of scale.
Shame about my underwater capital in those transiting oil majors, but heyho.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#339811

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 12th, 2020, 8:30 am

88V8 wrote:I think over the coming decade I would rely on Shell, and perhaps BP, to pivot into renewables whilst paying me an income, rather than rely on renewables players to deliver divis in any sort of scale.
Shame about my underwater capital in those transiting oil majors, but heyho.

V8

Very likely those renewables players will be bought by super major energy companies anyway. I should think, if the super majors want to build critical mass in a shorter time frame than growing new business organically.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#340144

Postby dspp » September 14th, 2020, 9:47 am

Peak Oil
BP has called time on the world’s rising demand for fossil fuels after finding that demand for oil may have already reached its peak and faces an unprecedented decades-long decline. Demand for oil may never fully recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the oil firm, and may begin falling in absolute terms for the first time in modern history. BP’s influential annual report on the future of energy, published on Monday,

(webcast to be this afternoon 1330, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/ ... tlook.html)

- dspp


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