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Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

Cyb3ria
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Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385535

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 1:07 am

Recently, BPC completed a drill which took over 10 years in the making. This drill encounter non commercial oil. Long-term holders are currently sitting on 70% losses. Others took a 70% plus hit and sold. The low price has encouraged new entrants determined to make gains from what appears to them oversold indicators.

The latest RNS can be found of which highlights are:

BPC, the Caribbean and Atlantic margin focused oil and gas company, with production, appraisal, development, and exploration assets across the region, provides the following update on the drilling of its Perseverance #1 well in The Bahamas.



Highlights

· The Perseverance #1 well in The Bahamas has encountered hydrocarbons, successfully validated the structural model and the petroleum system, and drilled a majority of the potential reservoirs of interest, thus fulfilling the core technical objectives of the well

· Whilst the well encountered oil, indicated from LWD (Logging while drilling) tools, gas chromatography and mud logs, commercial volumes of oil have not been proven at this well location

· T he validation of a competent seal, good reservoir quality, charge and the presence of oil points to significant hydrocarbon potential remaining in various independent, untested play systems and structures within BPC's extensive acreage

· Drilling has now ceased, the well having reached a depth of approximately 3,900 meters without incident, and the well will now be permanently plugged and abandoned

· Over the coming weeks BPC will undertake a detailed evaluation of all technical information gathered during drilling. In this context, BPC will review the appropriate way forward for future monetisation of its business in The Bahamas, in particular with a view to renewal of a farm-in process

· Near term operational activity will now focus on the Company's 2021 work programme in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname, targeting exit production of c.2,500 bopd and prospect maturation in Uruguay



My question is do investers/traders think it a good idea to take a position on BPC? If not, why not?

Dod101
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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385536

Postby Dod101 » February 11th, 2021, 2:04 am

I do not know where you are posting from but in the UK it is now 2 am. I think the answer is fairly obvious. The latest results do not instill confidence.

If you have some fun money then stick £5,000 into this and see what happens.

I am no trader but just as keen to get some money as anyone else.

Dod

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385538

Postby Proselenes » February 11th, 2021, 4:14 am

They have little cash.

As per the drilling results RNS they still have to pay Stenna the remaining drilling costs up to completion P&A.

They also had an agreement with Lombard that guaranteed them 15% profit on all the shares issued to them from 2p. Given Lombard are likely sat on a big loss from those shares then BPC need to pay back the difference.

And then.........from their last funding RNS on the 12th of Jan 2021 they warned that Trinidad work might be delayed or deferred if they cannot get the funds..........

So all in all, most people expect funding problems and very likely massive dilution ahead.

CERP were using Convertible Loan Notes before BPC merged. BPC were using CLN as well. Any company that uses CLN's it shows, in my opinion, a serious risk on their assets that they have to use CLN's. This saw a merger of two companies both using CLN's........

So to answer you question............I would not touch it with a barge pole.

All IMO, DYOR !!

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385563

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 8:37 am

Thank you for your replies and honesty.

This is what BPC stated in funding terms which was also released in RNS dated February 8th:

Funding



As at commencement of abandonment of Perseverance #1, the Company's cash balance is $12.5 million. These funds held will be applied toward satisfying final payments relating to Perseverance #1 as the drilling programme is concluded, progressing the Company's work programs in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname over coming months, and general working capital purposes.



Completion of the Perseverance #1 well will trigger potential funding points under the Company's existing funding facilities, specifically (i) the ability of the investors under the Company's conditional fixed-conversion price senior secured convertible loan notes financing facility to subscribe for up £12 million of additional notes (pre fees and expenses), and (ii) the investor under the facility announced by the Company on 14 December 2020 (as amended) to exercise a call option (the "Call") to subscribe for 187.5 million shares at 2p per share, which, if exercised, would see inflows of a further 3.75 million (pre fees and expenses). The Company will be discussing with both investors in the coming days and will advise shareholders accordingly of the outcome of those discussions.


It would seem to suggest they are still liquid.

They also seem to be hinting at partnerships (Farm-ins) to continue drilling in the Bahamas acreage.

The Company considers the results from Perseverance #1 - notably the confirmation of migrated oil within the Aptian reservoirs - will significantly reduce technical risk for any future/further exploration in this new frontier province. In particular, BPC considers that the results from Perseverance #1 may provide a strong technical basis for renewed farm-in discussions, with a view to future drilling at other target locations within BPC's licence areas.


Is the company trying to mislead or can the news release be taken at face value?

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385569

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 9:01 am

BPC also seem to be hinting that they hold diversified assets from a recent merger (acquisition) with CERP. They seem to implying that they can increase production to 2500 bopd from 500 bopd by year ending 2021.

In parallel the Board, with the assistance of the Company's advisers and brokers, will review the Company's broader portfolio of operations and opportunities, to ensure its plans deliver maximum value for the foreseeable future. This review will focus on ensuring progress of the planned 2021 work program in both Trinidad and Suriname, and associated production growth, as well as the potential to deliver prospect/lead maturation in Uruguay from reprocessed seismic. The Company's 2021 work programme in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname is targeting exit production of c.2,500 bopd.



I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts on whether the exit production target of 2500 bopd is achievable with these newly acquired assets from CERP?

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385765

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 4:46 pm

Many investors/traders appear to be writing BPC off. However, this news report seems to indirectly indicate that the company is still a going concern.

BPC will now focus its efforts on its oil prospects in the Caribbean as it analyzes results from the Bahamas test well.


Source: GuardianNassau 4 hours ago. Sorry can't post links yet. Just try and google the source.

Publish 4 hours ago.




Finding it difficult to call. Part of me wants to jump in with £10k, however, unable to press the buy button.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385770

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 4:51 pm

More news from the same source also published 4 hours ago:

Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC) does not necessarily need a farm-in agreement to continue exploring for oil in The Bahamas, Chief Executive Officer Simon Potter said yesterday, but he contended it is the normal process and it will reduce the uncertainty that comes with continued exploration at the unproven leases.

Potter, who made the remarks during an appearance on the radio talk show ‘The Revolution’ on Guardian Radio, said it will be some time before BPC knows whether it will continue its exploration, given that it has to pore over the data gleaned from its Perseverance #1 test well, present the data to the government and have the government renew the company’s exploration licenses, which expire in June.

Potter explained that the data will also either convince a company to join BPC in continued exploration in The Bahamas in a farm-in agreement, or choose to walk away from a deal.

Two possible partners have walked away from BPC in the past, but Potter said “it’s possible to move forward without a farm-in”.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385773

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 5:01 pm

Thanks joey. Totally agree. I can't measure a fair value. That's the problem I have.

All I know is that the talk is administration and a fair value of zero. The stock really appears cheap as chips or less than a postage stamp? An increase to say just 1p and I can double my money to £20k.

Alas, because I cannot work out the fair value I'm restrained. Recent news reports are encouraging.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385779

Postby Proselenes » February 11th, 2021, 5:07 pm

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/feb ... lling-ban/


Oil Opponents Demand ‘Permanent Drilling Ban’

As of Tuesday, February 9, 2021

• As BPC’s first exploration well strikes out
• Govt silent but explorer says not giving up
• Activists to persist with Judicial Review

By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

“Ecstatic” oil opponents yesterday urged The Bahamas to “seize the moment” and impose a permanent drilling ban after Bahamas Petroleum Company’s (BPC) first exploratory well came up empty.

Casuarina McKinney-Lambert, the Bahamas Reef Environment Educ...........

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385783

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 5:13 pm

Thank you Proselenes,

The anecdotal facts points to the environmentalists and opponents failing to stop BPC exploration. This is not to say they won't succeed. Just that they failed succeed so far. That points to the politics or those running the country not really in favour of stopping the exploration. Where they seem opposed its coming across as mere lip service.

Think I will sleep on this one and see what happens tomorrow.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385792

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 5:45 pm

Yes, joey it's not a good sign when companies go for conditional fixed-conversion price senior secured convertible loan notes, etc. Usually a sign they can't raise enough funds through the normal placing route high enough or fast enough. The gearing is off the scales.

Please don't worry. I'm not jumping in. I waiting in the wings and watching this play out. It is very interesting to watch. Imagine consuming the market cap on 1 drill after 10 years and consuming over £100m during that time. You couldn't make something like that up.

Will be back for read at some point. Thank you again.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385854

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 10:15 pm

Oil exploration opponents yesterday admitted they will have to halt their challenge to Bahamas Petroleum Company’s (BPC) drilling approvals if it succeeds with its $200,000 “security for costs” demand.

Joe Darville, executive chairman of Save the Bays, and secretary of Waterkeepers Bahamas, the two environmental groups behind the Judicial Review, conceded that they lack “sufficient liquid assets” to pay this sum should the Supreme Court grant BPC’s request

“I can confirm that if the security for costs application succeeds, this action will certainly have to be stayed because Waterkeepers Bahamas and Save the Bays will be unable to raise sufficient sums by that date to both fund its continuation of the action and provide a significant sum in security for costs.”

Source: The Tribune from the Bahamas published today




Seems like the legal action isn't going ahead

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385861

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 10:42 pm

A Cabinet minister yesterday argued The Bahamas should seek "offsetting” compensation from neighbouring countries if it bows to their demands to give up oil exploration.

Romauld Ferreira, minister for housing and the environment, speaking in the House of Assembly after the Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC) this week advised that its exploratory Perseverance One well did not find commercial oil quantities, addressed both the local and international lobbying against the project.

"A lot of different countries and states in the United States offered their opinion as to whether The Bahamas should continue with oil exploration, but I didn't hear any of them speak of offering offsets to our economy that would equate, or be the equivalent, to the value of what oil would contribute by funding," Mr Ferreira said.

Source: Same as the post just above



All indicates that drilling isn't going to stop anytime soon despite the noises made by opponents. The Bahamas is saying if you want us to stop then pay the offset. Given that there could be a lot of untapped oil that offset would be very expensive fund.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385957

Postby spasmodicus » February 12th, 2021, 11:07 am

joey wrote:
Cyb3ria wrote:Thanks joey. Totally agree. I can't measure a fair value. That's the problem I have.

All I know is that the talk is administration and a fair value of zero. The stock really appears cheap as chips or less than a postage stamp? An increase to say just 1p and I can double my money to £20k.

Alas, because I cannot work out the fair value I'm restrained. Recent news reports are encouraging.


Please don't take this the wrong way but you are playing with fire here. My suggestion would be to learn about how the speculative markets work before committing a huge amount of cash like £10k. The AIM market, particularly oilers and miners, is notorious for rinsing the private investor. Quite literally some of these companies exist to furnish the directors with a salary. That's it. (I'm not joking). If you do not have a grasp on how e.g. financing works (CLNs, placing) then you should aim to understand that, at the very least, before committing any cash. My understanding is that BPC will need a raise of some form imminently; they've said as much in recent RNSs. That could well mean a move lower than 0.5p for the SP.


Quite literally some of these companies exist to furnish the directors with a salary Quite so, I have come across several of these in my time. But there is a spectrum of company behaviours and outcomes. Some have virtually no chance of success, while others, a minority, end up as multi-baggers. The problem is to figure out this out in advance. If you want an example of something that looked pretty good for a while, such that many Fools including me invested in it, look no further than Hurricane energy on this board. It has all ended in tears. That's what is so fascinating about small oilies.

I took a modest punt on Bahamas Petroleum back in March 2019 (SP 1.75p), believing that there was at least a fighting chance of finding a decent field on the Bahamas shelf. In August 2019 I sold about 2/3rds of my holding at 3.1p, which reduced my average buy price to about 0.8p. So now, I am sitting on a loss of about £140, but it could have gone the other way and I now shall just hang on to this holding and see what happens. Of course, I should have sold some more in February when the price hit 5p. (FOMO, greed etc. :( ) Wildcats like Perseverance 1 have maybe a one in four chance of success, but the upside if/when they do succeed can be at least 5 times. The chances of BPC raising money for another well in the area seem to me to be pretty slim given the current state of oil markets. There is still a chance, what with the random fluctuations to which these penny shares are prone, that I may yet turn a small profit, but I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on it, certainly not £10k!

regards,
S

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#385965

Postby Cyb3ria » February 12th, 2021, 11:24 am

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/aim-bpc/bahamas-petroleum-shares

SimplyWall(dot)st has it 97% discount to fair value.

It's very difficult to work out the fair value due to how to value the licensed extensive acreage held.
You can probably do it with CERP assets.

CERP had a market value of 1.85 before merger.

Decided to get involved this morning because I'm just total outright fool lol..

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#386491

Postby Cyb3ria » February 13th, 2021, 8:05 pm

This January, the first exports of crude oil, a million barrels, shipped off from Guyana to the United States. The same month French oil major Total and the American Apache Corporation announced the discovery of a fourth major reserve in the waters of neighboring Suriname. British oil major BP and British-Dutch Shell also operate in the region.

BPC, a company of only six employees, is a relative newcomer. It has until now focused its attention on the Bahamas, but the setback has led the company to seek its fortunes elsewhere, at least for now.

“Near term operational activity will now focus on the Company’s 2021 work programme in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname,” the BPC statement said.


https://news.mongabay.com/2021/02/as-ba ... caribbean/

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#386555

Postby Wyneric » February 14th, 2021, 8:34 am

You get the impression BPC were literally banking on that well...so with nigh on 5 billion shares in issue and not much cash one assumes they will have to raise some more at some stage if they want to do anything major...a placing..?...at what discount..?...and a current plan for a maximum potential of 2500 boed...?...enough to keep the lights on and a bit more..?
The problem is, right or wrong, oil is not the buzz word anymore, nobody's interested. Just look at the charts of CWR, ITM or INRG to see where the money is flowing.
The markets are dismissing oil far too soon, but it's no help to small Oil/Gas Co's in the short/medium term.
Take SQZ (I hold)...nigh on £100 million in the bank, no debt, production hopefully about to increase by around a quarter in the next few weeks, and guaranteed substantially to increase from 1st Jan 2021 due to the structured deal with BP but still the share price "languishes" despite the rising oil/gas price.... :roll:
Re BPC, there are a lot worse outfits out there, but the failure of the well puts them back in amongst all the other Oily "also ran's" on AIM, and in the current climate...?

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#386568

Postby Cyb3ria » February 14th, 2021, 9:22 am

The problem is, right or wrong, oil is not the buzz word anymore, nobody's interested. Just look at the charts of CWR, ITM or INRG to see where the money is flowing.
The markets are dismissing oil far too soon, but it's no help to small Oil/Gas Co's in the short/medium term.


Perhaps, someone could drop BPC a proposition to follow ECO's lead and diversify into Solar - no doubt BPC are aware of energy trends by Oilers.

Nonetheless, I think it's better that they focus on Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname to increase production in the short-term.

so with nigh on 5 billion shares in issue


All hints at consolidation which isn't good in practical terms. Plus, it only really becomes a major (agreed, given it's already major) if they give up on finding oil in the Bahamas acreage.

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#386570

Postby Cyb3ria » February 14th, 2021, 9:36 am

Wondering if we get an operations RNS update this week, which might add clarity rather than having to search for news reports and recent local Radio interview reports.

Stena IceMAX has left the Perseverance 1 drill location and is languishing somewhere off the Florida coast.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/ST ... -235092459

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Re: Bahamas Petroleum Company plc (BPC)

#387054

Postby Cyb3ria » February 15th, 2021, 7:55 pm

As Trinidad and Tobago continue to explore for major oil and gas fields in the Caribbean region, the Bahamas Petroleum Co. has made a non-commercial oil discovery.

While Trinidad and Tobago have focused on natural gas for the last two decades, the country’s oil industry has been developing steadily. In 2020, the country’s third-largest oil producer Trinity Exploration & Production increased production by 7 percent to 3,226 bpd. This figure is expected to reach around 4,000 bpd by 2023.

Trinity Exploration & Production’s executive chairman, Bruce Dingwall, explained of Trinidad’s oil industry, “[There is a] huge reserve base and not many players and I think you’ll see some structural change in Trinidad over the next few years”.

In 2016, Trinidad and Tobago had 728 million barrels of proven crude oil reserves. With output levels of between 55-60,000 bpd throughout 2020, Trinidad managed to maintain its pre-pandemic levels of production during the industry’s difficult year.

As well as being the region’s biggest oil producer, Trinidad and Tobago is home to the largest natural gas processing facilities in the Western Hemisphere. In 2014, Trinidad was the sixth-largest global exporter of natural gas, following 15 years of heavy investment in the sector.

The Caribbean region has great oil potential going into 2021 as recent discoveries in Suriname and Guyana demonstrate the untapped potential of the region. Majors are starting to show greater interest in the Caribbean as production costs could be as low as $30 to $40 a barrel.


https://www.reportdoor.com/is-the-carib ... -oil-boom/


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