Iran sanctions, all you ever wanted to know
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS20871.pdf
"On May 8, 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would no longer participate
in the JCPOA and that all U.S. secondary sanctions suspended to implement the JCPOA would be
reimposed after a maximum “wind-down period” of 180 days (November 4, 2018). The
Administration has indicated it will not look favorably on requests by foreign governments or
companies for exemptions to allow them to avoid penalties for continuing to do business with
Iran after that time. U.S. licenses for the sale by Airbus and Boeing of commercial aircraft to Iran
Air and other Iranian airlines are being revoked.
It remains uncertain whether reimposed U.S. sanctions based on the U.S. unilateral exit from the
JCPOA will damage Iran’s economy to the extent sanctions did during 2012-2015, when the
global community was aligned in pressuring Iran. During that timeframe, Iran’s economy shrank
by 9% per year, crude oil exports fell from about 2.5 million barrels per day (mbd) to about 1.1
mbd, and Iran could not repatriate more than $120 billion in Iranian reserves held in banks
abroad"
Based on my personal observations of the impact that is already occurring, the damage will occur far faster and be deeper than the last time. The EU has not put in place a Cuba-style counter to the USA extraterritoriality and so the international banking system is moving quite quickly to freeze out Iran. (Oil) exemptions would appear to be much more difficult to get than on the last occasion. This will cause rapid throttling of Japan & South Korean oil imports, cause India to have to make a strategic choice quite quickly, and will spur on deepening of Iran-China links.
The oil price implications are quite obvious.
regards, dspp
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Iran sanctions
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- Lemon Half
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Iran sanctions
Courtesy of John Kemp, Reuters this Columbia piece:
"This in turn informs another important element: whether all of this will matter in affecting Iranian behavior. From 2012–2013, the United States denied Iran over $50 billion in oil sales and prevented it from using billions more that were held in banks around the world. The result, at least in part, was the negotiation and implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). That might not be the result of another round of sanctions. Diplomacy with the United States has lost its luster in Iran, and its leaders are now talking about the possible use of military instruments to blockade the Persian Gulf, as they have in the past. Even if this extreme scenario does not come to pass, .......... factors will interplay with one another in ways that we may not be able to anticipate at the outset."
http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/resear ... l-windfall
In an ideal world, from a US perspective, Iranian exports would be throttled back at the same rate that other supplies can be released to market so as to create price stability and avoid giving Iran any windfall profits. So is Trump about to ask Putin to bean up ? Maybe we will find out how fast US shale can come back, and whether the DUC inventory is of wells that are worthwhile completing or just a mirage on the balance sheet.
regards, dspp
"This in turn informs another important element: whether all of this will matter in affecting Iranian behavior. From 2012–2013, the United States denied Iran over $50 billion in oil sales and prevented it from using billions more that were held in banks around the world. The result, at least in part, was the negotiation and implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). That might not be the result of another round of sanctions. Diplomacy with the United States has lost its luster in Iran, and its leaders are now talking about the possible use of military instruments to blockade the Persian Gulf, as they have in the past. Even if this extreme scenario does not come to pass, .......... factors will interplay with one another in ways that we may not be able to anticipate at the outset."
http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/resear ... l-windfall
In an ideal world, from a US perspective, Iranian exports would be throttled back at the same rate that other supplies can be released to market so as to create price stability and avoid giving Iran any windfall profits. So is Trump about to ask Putin to bean up ? Maybe we will find out how fast US shale can come back, and whether the DUC inventory is of wells that are worthwhile completing or just a mirage on the balance sheet.
regards, dspp
Re: Iran sanctions
it seems iran won't reduce its oil production due to the sanctions
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... ustry.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... ustry.html
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Iran sanctions
Iran nuclear deal: US rejects EU plea for sanctions exemption
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44842723
It will be interesting to see if EU responds with anti-sanctions measures of its own, per Cuba.
- dspp
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44842723
It will be interesting to see if EU responds with anti-sanctions measures of its own, per Cuba.
- dspp
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