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Storage stuff

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#387961

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 1:13 pm

Toto wrote:Dspp I really would appreciate your insight. I’m new here. Just joined. Still not quite sure how the board works. :?


Thank you for asking. The answer is, easy, it has just evolved. This board is deliberately intended to cover all of the energy space, not just oil & gas. Anyone is welcome, from day trader to billionare, from roustie or puddle pusher to C-suite, from newbie to long-retired, learner to expert. It is preferable if you post in a fact-based way, please don't just repeat the latest "I hate wind turbines" or "I hate gas-guzzling cars" rant from your newspaper of choice, or whatever.

What we have found that is sort of working is:

GENERIC/MACRO TOPICS
If you have a piece of info/insight/request regarding a generic/macro energy area then you will likely find an appropriate generic/macro thread, so best to add to that existing thread. These are generally re the whole world, not just the UK. Here are some of those:
- Grid matters : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=20010
- Oil Price (which tends to include all 'macro' oil) : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=443
- Gas matters : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=24341
- Renewable & conventional trends : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=11176
- Shale matters : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=3646
- Wind matters : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8185
- Storage stuff : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=14745
- Hydrogen matters : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=24190
- Coal matters : viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8934
We can start new generic/macro threads if we think there is a need.

COMPANY SPECIFIC
You can have company-specific threads here, but also they can be over on the main news board (see viewforum.php?f=94, which is quite 'tight' in how it is used). Both are equally permissible, but we do ask that you try to keep within one thread per company if at all possible, i.e. don't be lazy - have a look for an existing thread before starting a new thread. Oh, and ideally include the company ticker (e.g. HUR) if you can. I'm afraid not everyone does either of these .....

ANYTHING ELSE ABOUT ANY OTHER ENERGY ITEM
If you have something that looks as if it could helpfully continue another existing conversation then go ahead and tag along with something already there. Or, if all else fails, don't be shy please go ahead and start a new thread.

MODDING
If you post on the wrong thread or whatever the worst that happens is that a Mod may tidy it up to somewhere else in which case you may (or may not) get a message or reply or etc to tell you where to look (keep an eye on your Notifications and Private Messages icon in the top right of the viewing pane). I'm not the only Mod that looks after this board though I am the 'normal' one since I have been in the energy industry for a few decades, so from time to time you may see other Mods doing things. We tend to leave a Mod-box and our signature if we have been active, so that way you know who to PM (Private Message) if you want further guidance/etc, but not always. If you see something untoward on a post (anywhere on the The Lemon Fool (TLF) then please hit the Alert button, which is the ! button on the top right of each individual post and write down what you think needs attention, and in due course a Mod will take a look. Do not "answer-back", as that just creates more Modding work - just hit the Alert button, write a brief explanation, move on.

STICKY
Your question was initially asked on the Storage Stuff thread. I will probably take a copy of this post and put it at the top of this board as a 'Sticky'.

NON-EXCLUSIVE
You will find other energy-related stuff scattered all over TLF, for example down in the DIY section folk talk about insulation or whatever. It doesn't have to be here, though this board is pretty much where the financial investment conversations to do with energy take place. There are some Investment Trust threads (viewforum.php?f=54) that are relevant if those are your thing. [edit: How could forget - there is a Tesla (TSLA) thread on this board, but there is a much larger one over on the Macro & Global Topics board at viewtopic.php?f=76&p=387977#p387977 - it is entirely up to you which/both threads you use]

GLOBAL WARMING / CLIMATE CHANGE
Clearly a lot of what is going on in the Energy/Oil/Gas sector is affected in one way or another by climate change. We are not ordinarily interested in the scientific, or non-scientific, views on climate change on this board. Instead please go to The Natural World (viewforum.php?f=59) or Science (viewforum.php?f=83) if you want to discuss the topic from that point of view. However it is quite reasonable to discuss the topic on this board insofar as it pertains to investment matters. This is a delicate balance, but people seem to be able to follow that so far.

By the way I may break this post out as a general board 'sticky'. [EDIT : now done, see viewtopic.php?f=16&t=27939 ]

regards, dspp

daveh
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Re: Storage stuff

#388011

Postby daveh » February 19th, 2021, 4:33 pm

We were talking about pumped storage earlier and google has just sent me this piece in The Herald about the Coire Glas scheme
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business ... oes-ahead/

It still looks like funding is the problem though.

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#388029

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 6:25 pm

daveh wrote:We were talking about pumped storage earlier and google has just sent me this piece in The Herald about the Coire Glas scheme
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business ... oes-ahead/

It still looks like funding is the problem though.


That article suggests "Coire Glas is expected to have 1.5GW capacity." and "the project would likely cost more than £1 billion.". Also it says " Imperial team found the addition of 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of additional pumped storage hydro capacity could save up to £690m per year in energy system costs by 2050."

So £1bn in for 1.5/4.5 x £690m/yr = £230m/yr of return. On the face of it why aren't SSE rushing forwards to put their own money at risk ?

Perhaps they think that other forms of storage are going to be far cheaper within these timescales, leaving a 1.5GW scheme an utterly stranded asset in the desolate interior of (beautiful) Scotland, far from the main load centres. You don't have to play with a calculator for long with these numbers to wonder when battery storage crosses over the pumped-hydro curve. I'm sure that is making the SSE board want to socialise the cost and the risk, whilst privatising the reward.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#388038

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 6:49 pm

A rather downbeat note on Tesla Energy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/440743 ... ry-storage

At present we do not really have the data to tease out the solar PV aspects of Tesla Energy from the storage aspects. Maybe one to think on a bit more.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#388049

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 8:39 pm

dspp wrote:A rather downbeat note on Tesla Energy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/440743 ... ry-storage

At present we do not really have the data to tease out the solar PV aspects of Tesla Energy from the storage aspects. Maybe one to think on a bit more.

regards, dspp


This is relevant in that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhQxyM980HM&t=110s

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#388060

Postby Johnspenceuk » February 19th, 2021, 9:54 pm

dspp wrote:
daveh wrote:We were talking about pumped storage earlier and google has just sent me this piece in The Herald about the Coire Glas scheme
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business ... oes-ahead/

It still looks like funding is the problem though.


That article suggests "Coire Glas is expected to have 1.5GW capacity." and "the project would likely cost more than £1 billion.". Also it says " Imperial team found the addition of 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of additional pumped storage hydro capacity could save up to £690m per year in energy system costs by 2050."

So £1bn in for 1.5/4.5 x £690m/yr = £230m/yr of return. On the face of it why aren't SSE rushing forwards to put their own money at risk ?

Perhaps they think that other forms of storage are going to be far cheaper within these timescales, leaving a 1.5GW scheme an utterly stranded asset in the desolate interior of (beautiful) Scotland, far from the main load centres. You don't have to play with a calculator for long with these numbers to wonder when battery storage crosses over the pumped-hydro curve. I'm sure that is making the SSE board want to socialise the cost and the risk, whilst privatising the reward.

regards, dspp



I looked in Wikipedia for more information on pumped storage according to Wki China has 21 producing and 40+ planned or under construction stations. They must see a good case for generating using this method it seems.

John

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Re: Storage stuff

#388071

Postby 88V8 » February 19th, 2021, 10:42 pm

dspp wrote:This is relevant .....

Interesting, but if Powerwall is so easy to make and will have an 80% gross margin, what's to prevent their battery suppliers producing a clone and undercutting. This chap is talking as if competition does not exist.

At the high end of the market the TESLA brand has value, but we already know that most American don't really care where things are made, so long as they're cheap - MAGA is something that the average Joe would like someone elss to pay for.

V8

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Re: Storage stuff

#388074

Postby 88V8 » February 19th, 2021, 10:53 pm

Johnspenceuk wrote:... on pumped storage ... China has 21 producing and 40+ planned or under construction stations. They must see a good case for generating using this method it seems.

The environment is not an issue in China.
And the Chinese State does not need to optimise the economics. To support their growth/trashing of the planet, they will take domestic power wherever they can get it, whilst exporting their batteries for hard currency and crushing potential foreign competition.

I wish the UK govt had a long strategic view like Chins.

V8

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#388142

Postby dspp » February 20th, 2021, 10:27 am

88V8 wrote:
Johnspenceuk wrote:... on pumped storage ... China has 21 producing and 40+ planned or under construction stations. They must see a good case for generating using this method it seems.

The environment is not an issue in China.
And the Chinese State does not need to optimise the economics. To support their growth/trashing of the planet, they will take domestic power wherever they can get it, whilst exporting their batteries for hard currency and crushing potential foreign competition.

I wish the UK govt had a long strategic view like Chins.

V8


Also the Chinese state is very keen to keep its construction & civil engineering sector purring away.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#388867

Postby dspp » February 22nd, 2021, 6:49 pm

PG&E's Gigantic Battery (256 Tesla Megapacks) In California Nears Completion
Once completed, it will be - at least for a while - the world's largest battery energy storage system. Thank's to the new drone video from EKMMetering, we can take another look at the Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) battery energy storage (ESS) project in Moss Landing, California, which soon should be completed. Most of the construction and deployment of 256 Tesla Megapacks seems to be completed. The battery systems are still under cover, but soon it should be connected to the grid to provide a total of 182.5 MW of power and 730 MWh of energy capacity.

https://insideevs.com/news/489727/pge-b ... l-articles

There are lots of credible stories out there of Tesla installers with back orders of over a 100 Tesla Powerwalls that are only getting 1 or 2 per month. Every available cell in the world is being swallowed for automotive use.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#388868

Postby dspp » February 22nd, 2021, 6:52 pm

State of Charge: EVs, Batteries and Battery Materials (Free Report)

In 2020 H2 global passenger EV registrations grew by 58% versus the same period the year prior, amounting to 3.53 million units versus 2.24 million units in 2019 H2.

In Europe, encouraged by an array of incentives for buyers, EV sales jumped 127% in 2020 H2 over 2019 H2, translating to a 174% increase in watt-hours of battery capacity deployed, a 205% increase in cobalt deployed, a 192% increase in lithium deployed and a 135% increase in nickel deployed versus the same period the year prior.

Just six cell suppliers globally (LG Energy Solution, CATL, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, BYD and SK Innovation) were collectively responsible for more than 89% of all battery capacity and battery metals deployed globally in passenger EVs in 2020 H2.

Deployment (in watt hours) of LFP cells increased more than six-fold in 2020 H2 versus 2019 H2, contributing to a boost in the sales-weighted average amount of lithium used per EV.

In 2020 H2, global battery capacity deployed in all newly sold passenger EVs combined amounted to 92.5 GWh, 93% more than was deployed globally in 2019 H2.

Similarly, in 2020 H2, 57,300 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (“LCE”) were deployed globally in batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs combined, 96% more than was deployed globally in 2019 H2.

Moreover, in 2020 H2, 53,150 tonnes of nickel were deployed globally in batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs combined, 69% more than was deployed globally in 2019 H2.

Lastly, in 2020 H2, 12,700 tonnes of cobalt were deployed globally in batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs combined, 85% more than was deployed globally in 2019 H2.

etc

https://secure.adamasintel.com/state-of-charge-2020-h2

(note to fellow Mods - the above is fair use per press release from source in my email)

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#389163

Postby gbjbaanb » February 23rd, 2021, 1:08 pm

spasmodicus wrote:
dspp wrote:
spasmodicus wrote:Solar panels probably don't work very efficiently with a layer of snow on them, either.
S


The slightest bit of sunlight getting onto a scrap of solar panel produces a little bit of electricity, as well as the straight heating effect on the dark surface. That electricity then flows through the silicon that is still under the snow and, due to the electrical resistance of the silcon, heats up the other areas of the panel. This in turn melts a bit of snow, further clearing the panel and it all tends to go very fast from that point onwards. The water lubrication, the clean surface, and the angle all generally cause the rest to slide off at some point rather than melt off. This is why, if you fly over a solar array after snowfall, you will so often see the panels themselves are completely clear and stand out like sparkling back diamonds in a white landscape.

regards, dspp


Thanks for putting me right, dspp, I would never have guessed that self clearing effect! One of my colleagues in Houston is staying with his sister in law, while the family home still has no power and a burst pipe as well. :(

regards,
S


However, sand doesn't slide off nearly as well so all those solar power panels bvuilt in places that have lots of sun end up requiring a horde or workers armed with brooms to keep them clear (or robots, in less sandy areas)

In the UK apparently lichen growing all over them is more of a problem.

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Re: Storage stuff

#389173

Postby spasmodicus » February 23rd, 2021, 1:24 pm

Hi dspp,

As your previous two posts suggest, the main bottleneck in building EVs and storage more generally is battery supply. As regards raw materials, there is maybe a short to medium term shortage of lithium, due to production constraints rather than shortages of minerals themselves. Consumption of nickel at 110,000 tons from a total world nickel production of about 2.5 million tons/annum would not seem to be a big problem. Cobalt at about 25000 tons/annum from about 140000 tons/annum total production is potentially more significant, especially as much of current production comes from a single country, the (ironically named) DRC.

Regarding battery production itself, the headline below is pretty interesting
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9046779/Electric-car-battery-giant-Britishvolt-plans-float.html
I wonder whether private investors will get a look in, if/when a floatation occurs, cf recent complaints by HL and AJBell that institutional investors get unfair priority.

regards,
S

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Re: Storage stuff

#389185

Postby dspp » February 23rd, 2021, 1:47 pm

spasmodicus wrote:Hi dspp,

As your previous two posts suggest, the main bottleneck in building EVs and storage more generally is battery supply. As regards raw materials, there is maybe a short to medium term shortage of lithium, due to production constraints rather than shortages of minerals themselves. Consumption of nickel at 110,000 tons from a total world nickel production of about 2.5 million tons/annum would not seem to be a big problem. Cobalt at about 25000 tons/annum from about 140000 tons/annum total production is potentially more significant, especially as much of current production comes from a single country, the (ironically named) DRC.

Regarding battery production itself, the headline below is pretty interesting
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9046779/Electric-car-battery-giant-Britishvolt-plans-float.html
I wonder whether private investors will get a look in, if/when a floatation occurs, cf recent complaints by HL and AJBell that institutional investors get unfair priority.

regards,
S


That's useful & interesting.

Re nickel. Let's assume your 110k/yr is correct (I don't know, seems slightly high on a t/car basis) (but Inote that EVs are currently about 1/3 of global cell consumption, maybe 1/2 - I'm still digging).

Tesla take about 1/3 of EV batteries each year, so say 30,000 tons/yr. They aim to scale from 0.5mln cars/year to 20 mln cars/yr during this decade. So a straightforward pro rata scaling would take Tesla alone to 1.2 mln tons/yr of nickel vs existing supply of 2.5m t/yr. And that is just Tesla, multiply by 3x for all the other car mfg. You can see why Tesla have asked anyone with a) suggestions for increasing supply to step forwards, and b) any suggestions for reducing nickel content in batteries.

Here is the Tesla take of EV batteries, and their suppliers. This by the way ought to give some food for though for those folk wanting to invest in carpetbagging UK cell manufacturing shyster hypester projects,

regards, dspp

Image

and

Image

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Re: Storage stuff

#389334

Postby spasmodicus » February 23rd, 2021, 9:28 pm

Whilst it seems that nickel or cobalt might present medium to longer term supply shortages, there are plenty of pretty smart folks working on alternative cell designs which might eventually sidestep these problems, for example

https://www.machinedesign.com/materials/article/21838129/new-lithium-battery-design-eliminates-costly-cobalt-and-nickel

The article is from 2019 and of course, it's one thing to get something like that to work in a lab and entirely another to scale it up for mass production.

regards,
S

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Re: Storage stuff

#389347

Postby dspp » February 23rd, 2021, 10:10 pm

spasmodicus wrote:Whilst it seems that nickel or cobalt might present medium to longer term supply shortages, there are plenty of pretty smart folks working on alternative cell designs which might eventually sidestep these problems, for example

https://www.machinedesign.com/materials/article/21838129/new-lithium-battery-design-eliminates-costly-cobalt-and-nickel

The article is from 2019 and of course, it's one thing to get something like that to work in a lab and entirely another to scale it up for mass production.

regards,
S


Indeed, I reckon minimum 5-years for an excellently performing team with a sound proposition, to get to first commercial vehicle use.

So any cell technology that is not already as far advanced as (say) the Tesla 4680 battery day stuff is not going to arrive in time to prevent a supply crunch wrt the constraint materials.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#389358

Postby 88V8 » February 23rd, 2021, 10:55 pm

dspp wrote:So any cell technology that is not already as far advanced as (say) the Tesla 4680 battery day stuff is not going to arrive in time to prevent a supply crunch wrt the constraint materials.

So BoJo's 2030 ambitions for ceasing new ICE may be pie in the sky, given that grid storage must surely be more critical.

V8.

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Re: Storage stuff

#389434

Postby dspp » February 24th, 2021, 9:42 am

88V8 wrote:
dspp wrote:So any cell technology that is not already as far advanced as (say) the Tesla 4680 battery day stuff is not going to arrive in time to prevent a supply crunch wrt the constraint materials.

So BoJo's 2030 ambitions for ceasing new ICE may be pie in the sky, given that grid storage must surely be more critical.

V8.


I don't think so. Because BEVs contain B they are their own storage solution.

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Re: Storage stuff

#389462

Postby 88V8 » February 24th, 2021, 10:46 am

dspp wrote:
88V8 wrote:
dspp wrote:So any cell technology that is not already as far advanced as (say) the Tesla 4680 battery day stuff is not going to arrive in time to prevent a supply crunch wrt the constraint materials.

So BoJo's 2030 ambitions for ceasing new ICE may be pie in the sky, given that grid storage must surely be more critical.

I don't think so. Because BEVs contain B they are their own storage solution.

I was thinking more in terms of the global ability to make batteries. If there is a shortfall, do BEVs get first dibs, or grid storage given that BoJo is so keen on wind.

V8

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Re: Storage stuff

#389472

Postby dspp » February 24th, 2021, 11:03 am

spasmodicus wrote:Whilst it seems that nickel or cobalt might present medium to longer term supply shortages, there are plenty of pretty smart folks working on alternative cell designs which might eventually sidestep these problems, for example

https://www.machinedesign.com/materials/article/21838129/new-lithium-battery-design-eliminates-costly-cobalt-and-nickel

The article is from 2019 and of course, it's one thing to get something like that to work in a lab and entirely another to scale it up for mass production.

regards,
S


"Over 60% of all passenger EV battery capacity deployed globally in 2020 was in the form of high nickel cells, such as NCA or NCM 6- to 8-Series cells. Europe saw the greatest deployment of high nickel cells in 2020 (predominantly NCM 6- and 7-Series), followed by China (dominated by NCM 8-Series) and the U.S. (high-nickel NCA).

Furthermore, nearly 30% of all passenger EV battery capacity deployed globally in 2020 was in the form of low nickel cells, such as NCM 1- to 5-Series cells. Last year, China saw the greatest deployment of low nickel cells globally, followed closely by Europe and at a distance by the U.S. In virtually all regions globally, the low nickel market is dominated by NCM 5-Series and to a lesser extent NCM 1-Series.

Lastly, in 2020 less than 10% of all passenger EV battery capacity deployed globally was in the form of no nickel cells, such as LFP and LMO/LTO. Not surprisingly, China saw the greatest deployment of no nickel cells globally in 2020 (predominantly LFP), followed by Europe and the U.S."


https://www.adamasintel.com/high-nickel ... rket-2020/

I guess we watch with interest how good LFP works, especially in the colder climates where it has been proving problematic. However Tesla at least appear to have issued a BMS update to cope with the flat decline curve, as this German account shows, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTXxfuSDv6c summarised in an english news item https://newsabc.net/software-update-tes ... s-version/ .

regards, dspp


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